Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

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ArmChairCivvy
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Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

An interesting twist is that Turkey and Israel are backing the same side:
"According to data compiled by the Stockholm International and Peace Research Institute, between 2014 and 2018, Azerbaijan was the second-largest buyer of Israeli arms, making up 17 percent of the country’s arms exports."
- i.a. the first exports of Merkavas
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

An interesting quote (considering the history that France seems to remember, but we choose to forget):
"Mr Erdogan's chief adviser, Ilnur Cevik, also said Turkey had told its Azeri allies to go as far as they wanted."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

RunningStrong
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by RunningStrong »

Russia meanwhile is appealing to both sides for a ceasefire...

Phil Sayers
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by Phil Sayers »

The Armenian MoD has claimed that a Turkish F-16 took off from an airbase in Azerbaijan and shot down one of their SU-25s killing the pilot. So far there is nothing to confirm that claim and plenty of reason to doubt it.

J. Tattersall

Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by J. Tattersall »

Phil Sayers wrote:The Armenian MoD has claimed that a Turkish F-16 took off from an airbase in Azerbaijan and shot down one of their SU-25s killing the pilot. So far there is nothing to confirm that claim and plenty of reason to doubt it.
This whole thawing conflict is a truly tragic state of affairs.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A take in ForeignAffairs.com by By Jeffrey Mankoff on this:
October 1, 2020


" Erdogan declared that Turkey would “remain by the side of our friend and brother Azerbaijan” and demanded that Armenia immediately return its “occupied territory.” Turkey’s main opposition parties joined Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party in passing a resolution condemning Armenian actions. Turkey has also reportedly dispatched Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan, and Armenia claimed this week that a Turkish F-16 shot down one of its fighters (a claim Turkey rejects).

Turkey’s deepening involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh is a dangerous game. Within the South Caucasus, strong Turkish support could encourage Baku to take an uncompromising line and resist calls for a cease-fire that maintains some version of the status quo ante. Turkish involvement could also transform the conflict into an existential one in the eyes of the Armenian public, especially in light of the World War I–era massacres of Armenians by Ottoman forces."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Phil Sayers
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by Phil Sayers »

J. Tattersall wrote: This whole thawing conflict is a truly tragic state of affairs.
Getting more tragic by the day. Not only are thousands (probably) of conscripts dead with their deaths then broadcast as near real time propaganda but Azerbaijan has now started to shell the densely populated capital of the breakaway region. No signs of this stopping anytime soon but unless Armenia can come up with an answer to the drone threat they will soon start to run out of military equipment - no shortage of lives to give though :-(

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

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Been wondering about the size of craters and also of the radius of wholesale damage around them - there seem to be Tochka or Smerch missiles (rockets) in use.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by SW1 »

Interesting analysis on the conflict


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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

On that local scale both sides (unfortunately) have limitless supply:
A1 from Turkey and Israel
A2 from Russia

So the two cities under bombardment will be left rather flat
- considering that there are no huge riches on the Armenian side (but a rich diaspora) and that the prices for Azerbaidan's riches are at a low point
... this is about as crazy as it can get (or, may be: level some more places? - while you are at it)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Azerbaijani Forces taken control of Hadrut, Fuzuli and Jabrayil towns in south and nearing Susha. In the north, mount Murovdağ and hills surrounding Ağdere is captured.

Within just few days, Armenian side lost couple of billions of dollars of equipment and thousands of soldiers. Their announced losses are more than 600, excluding POWs, lost ones and unidentified soldiers due to exploded bodies.

Armenian southern front is barely holding, and probably it will collapse totally within few days.

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by bobp »

The use of Drones to wipe out Armoured Vehicles is a clear threat to the British Army, especially if they are operating in swarms. I can see why the use of cyber and electronic countermeasures along with proper Anti Air missiles and Guns will be important in a future battlefield.

Phil Sayers
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

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Russian Mi-24 helicopter shot down by a SAM according to the Russian MOD. Unclear whose SAM but expect the warring parties to blame each other.

Edit: Azerbaijan accepts responsibility.

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by Phil Sayers »

A peace deal has now been agreed. Essentially an Armenian surrender which has resulted in rioting in Yerevan.

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

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As for the centre mentioned
"MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Kremlin on Tuesday said there was no agreement about the deployment of Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, after a ceasefire deal was signed in an effort to halt more than a month of bloodshed in the region.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that a centre to monitor the ceasefire, located outside Nagorno-Karabakh, was subject to a separate agreement."
I wonder if it will work by means of aerial surveillance, or is it still likely that there will be Turkish involvement of some other kind
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

J. Tattersall

Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by J. Tattersall »

As some commentators point out this whole tragedy has shown the limitations of Russian power, it's too overstretched to support its Armenian proxy against Turkey's. Unfortunately this is unlikely to solve the conflict but rather to exacerbate resentment for years, or decades, until the next outbreak.

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Putin prefers that Erdogan continues to stir up the southern flank of NATO (at no cost to him) and the whole of the eastern Med (that's more complicated, but opens potential avenues for Putin, the famed opportunist).

Russia could put Turkey on its knees simply by cutting the energy supplies, but has chosen to tolerate a local setback (they must have grown tired to tending that smoldering fire called Nagorno-Karabakh, and any chance of it not blowing up in the next ten years will be welcome to them. And in ten years Erdogan will be gone; whether Turkey will still be in NATO is a different matter... as for the odds). Ehmm: sounds like a win-win strategy
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

J. Tattersall

Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by J. Tattersall »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Putin prefers that Erdogan continues to stir up the southern flank of NATO (at no cost to him) and the whole of the eastern Med (that's more complicated, but opens potential avenues for Putin, the famed opportunist).

Russia could put Turkey on its knees simply by cutting the energy supplies, but has chosen to tolerate a local setback (they must have grown tired to tending that smoldering fire called Nagorno-Karabakh, and any chance of it not blowing up in the next ten years will be welcome to them. And in ten years Erdogan will be gone; whether Turkey will still be in NATO is a different matter... as for the odds). Ehmm: sounds like a win-win strategy
Don't think that's the case. Russia has quite possibly become overstretched.We're seeing a Russia Turkey confrontation via proxies which started off with Chechnya, has continued in Syria, Libya and now in Nagorno Karabak. Russia may have exceeded its culminating point, which if so is important information for the West.

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Both parties play their own game in Syria, so only in Libya and the Caucasus (extending further into the ex-Soviet Stans) is there some loot to be divided.
- if half of Libya (ex 'colony') falls under Turkish influence, Russia nets the other half (and gets much closer to Egypt)

The culmination point v much has to do with the fossile fuel exports having reached their apex (digging money from the ground is the only thing that sustains the otherwise cleptocratic gvmnt; and the projections for population and its health are not very supportive either).
- Turkey-Russia confrontation a side show in the bigger picture, but as I was saying there are some bonus wins for Putin from Turkey's belligerence v.v. other parties
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

It is not just that with regard to 'the West' Russia has used unresolved conflicts in Donbas, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia to stop Ukraine and Georgia from securing NATO membership; with regard to China it has managed to 'co-manage' economic/security responsibilities in Central Asia, so rather than fully blocking, looking for long-term stability.

Turkey is more of a (new) problem and Russia has not shied away from a hard-nosed stance in Syria and Libya. So what then is different with the Azeris and Armenians? Well, simply there are 2 million of each within Russia and faced with this war over Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia has preferred to maintain stability at home and keep the relationship with both Turkey and their Azeri kin going (repairable ? with Turkey).
- an interesting indication is that Turkey already announced that they will send 1750 peacekeepers; that somehow morphed into 2000 Russians
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

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J. Tattersall wrote:
ArmChairCivvy wrote:Putin prefers that Erdogan continues to stir up the southern flank of NATO (at no cost to him) and the whole of the eastern Med (that's more complicated, but opens potential avenues for Putin, the famed opportunist).

Russia could put Turkey on its knees simply by cutting the energy supplies, but has chosen to tolerate a local setback (they must have grown tired to tending that smoldering fire called Nagorno-Karabakh, and any chance of it not blowing up in the next ten years will be welcome to them. And in ten years Erdogan will be gone; whether Turkey will still be in NATO is a different matter... as for the odds). Ehmm: sounds like a win-win strategy
Don't think that's the case. Russia has quite possibly become overstretched.We're seeing a Russia Turkey confrontation via proxies which started off with Chechnya, has continued in Syria, Libya and now in Nagorno Karabak. Russia may have exceeded its culminating point, which if so is important information for the West.
I would rather say tha this is another example of Putin's miscalculation about Turkey and the future of Russian relations with them. It seems that he thinks that he can somehow make Turkey a Russian friend or even an ally/partner. Or at least pull Turkey from NATO.
But, conflict of interests between Turkey and Russia is simply too big and has allways been so. Wishful thinking. :thumbdown:
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

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I think you are right as the conflict stretches from Libya to Kazakhstan, but there is some strategic/ opportunistic thinking here
- the Libya stance makes Russia Egypt's best friend (after Saudi money, that is)
- in Kazakhstan Turkey neutralises the crosspull between Russia and China, and makes the tipping all the way in China's direction less likely

Q"thinks that he can somehow make Turkey a Russian friend or even an ally/partner. Or at least pull Turkey from NATO.
But, conflict of interests between Turkey and Russia is simply too big and has allways been so."Q end
but pulling Turkey out of NATO is his absolute shorter term priority. The window is there as the elections that brought Erdogan to power were 50/50, and now that man does his best not to repeat the question as the answer might be different... and Turkey would pivot back towards the West/ NATO/ EU (ideology, defence and trade)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Turkey's visibility in the aftermath has been done by reinventing a bilateral OSCE:
"A Russian military delegation held talks in Turkey last week to discuss the parameters of the Turkish-Russian centre."
which will include Turkish observers
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by abc123 »

Pulling Turkey out of NATO was allways a pipe dream. Again, conflict of interests is simply too big, Turkish NATO membership is too important for both Turkey and US/NATO.

As you said, the conflict is from Libya to Kazahstan. OK, I admit that there's that about limiting Chinese influence in Kazahstan, but even that is more trouble for Russia than not. China at least isn't allied with the US.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict escalation

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

All those points you make at the end are valid and furthermore, there are two things which are (more locally) certain:
1. the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is once more a catastrophe for the populations in the border areas, and
2. the recent events have played (unevenly, though) to the advantage and benefit of not only Aliyev but also Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan... none of whom stand for democracy
3. While it is clear, too, that the events have strained an emergent democracy in Armenia, what is also possible (but less certain) is that the other state in the region closest to being a working democracy, Georgia, may be adversely affected by the changed power balance (and power plays having proved 'acceptable' once more)

5 years is quite a long time for a peace-keeping presence (the role agreed for Russia), but then again look at Sinai, Cyprus, Kashmir
... they might be there much longer. Which takes us to the question: would it actually be to Russia's advantage to turn the bilateral mini-OCSE arrangement over to the real OCSE? Bringing in other types of agencies for the long-term reconstruction costs money. If Russia has that money, all very well then - my bet is that very little of that kind of activity is 'on the books' of anyone, right now. Even the generosity of the Armenian diaspora will be a poor substitute
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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