If Biden wins

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RichardIC
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by RichardIC »

Blackstone wrote:When did Bonfire Night move from November 5th to November 7th?
It's dragged on through the weekend mate. Private sales of fireworks have doubled this year because all the public displays have been culled.

Some of it may have been to do with Biden though!

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Another type of bonfire has been started in DC:
President Donald Trump fired his Pentagon chief, Mark Esper, in a tweet Monday afternoon.

What next? Orders all documents to be burned, to create maximum chaos
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Scimitar54
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Scimitar54 »

Unlike the Watergate Tapes, Tweets remain “Out There”. :mrgreen:

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

SKB wrote:Biased lefty American media reported the UK was celebrating Biden's win with fireworks on 5th November.
Apparently they'd never heard of Bonfire Night.... :lol: :mrgreen:
In fairness, I doubt many Americans have heard about our annual fireworks festival celebrating that time we captured, tortured, disembowelled and then executed of a Catholic.:P

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RichardIC
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by RichardIC »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:What next? Orders all documents to be burned, to create maximum chaos
The Presidential Transition Act does place a responsibility on the outgoing administration to back-up and share documentation with the incoming administration.... and generally play nicely.

It just gives Trump another opportunity to break the law.

bobp
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by bobp »

RichardIC wrote:When did Bonfire Night move from November 5th to November 7th?
Its also Diwali an Indian Festival .

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Remove everyone from the posts that are there to defend the state, Barr ;) one:
"The removal of Mr Esper, the Pentagon chief, was expected by some aides to be the first of several firings by Mr Trump.

Others believed to now be vulnerable include FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA head Gina Haspel and infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

For two months you can tune off from Fox News and get the same stuff from on the Pentagon Policy letter-headed memos (perhaps Fox News had already turned this programming off :D ?)
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2020/ ... cy/169926/
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

I really wanted to lead in with @ZG's observation (but which thread had it?) that when Trump is gone it will not mean that Trumpism will vanish. Quite the contrary the battle for the Republican party's soul will start.
- and as the President is the party's acting-CEO, in want of one (from the party :D ), the fight will boil down to how much following will the 2024 hopefuls be able to command.

Zero are the Neocons, who have just like the folks here who tried to underpin Brexit with 'scientific thinking' disappeared underground;
ArmChairCivvy wrote: Those folks disappeared when the Gvmnt made - what it until then had been hiding - official that for all main sectors of the economy the outcome would either be bad... or 'worse'
cough-cough, Iraq war was their (Br)exit

Capitalism as a common good, AKA steal the Democrats ticket:
- Marco Rubio? (would do away with the racism/ ethnicity stain as a bonus)

The stay-behind forces from the Trump era
-Nikki Haley (brings the same bonus as the M.R.)
... or even Pompeo (foreign policy issues could be more central than they were in the election just had)

Evangelists are about 80 million, and of that vote (80% in 2016 for Trump) Trump lost some... with fairly un-Christian behaviours?
- who was on the ticket to bring those folks in, in the first place;
- Mike Pence has pretty much disappeared for now - so as to to not be remembered as part of this unprincipled farce that is currently running

Will any of the above be able catch Trump's redneck base - and if not, who could be the next Republican black horse (well, black swan, if Trump's legacy is anything to go by)?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Trump in an orange jump suit, matching his orange glow (well, he has survived one :) impeachment, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits, so let's not dwell on premature things).

However, the closest parallel to what's going on now is R.'tricky' Dixon (who was pardoned, after resigning).
- but individuals closely tied to his Administration were subsequently indicted, and several of his top aides and advisers, including his Attorney General, John Mitchell, went to prison.

So working on the pardon angle, self pardon: a no-no. VP doing it, in the dying days (there would have to be an excuse of the President not being capable of exercising his duties... like playing golf). Biden could well decide to put a stop to the messiness of the transition... but that will only be a federal pardon. Will Trump, thru a Manhattan court, end up behind bars (like Al Capone) or be forced to perform community service (like the former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi) after being convicted of tax fraud.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Trump in an orange jump suit, matching his orange glow (well, he has survived one :) impeachment, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits, so let's not dwell on premature things).

However, the closest parallel to what's going on now is R.'tricky' Dixon (who was pardoned, after resigning).
- but individuals closely tied to his Administration were subsequently indicted, and several of his top aides and advisers, including his Attorney General, John Mitchell, went to prison.

So working on the pardon angle, self pardon: a no-no. VP doing it, in the dying days (there would have to be an excuse of the President not being capable of exercising his duties... like playing golf). Biden could well decide to put a stop to the messiness of the transition... but that will only be a federal pardon. Will Trump, thru a Manhattan court, end up behind bars (like Al Capone) or be forced to perform community service (like the former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi) after being convicted of tax fraud.
Though it's worth remembering that a federal pardon won't spare him from state charges and it looks very likely that New York will be pursuing charges against the Trump Organisation once Trump is out of office.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote:a federal pardon won't spare him from state charges
Yes, I should have used a paragraph to denote my jump from one to the other (and of course there are other linked aspects to tax fraud, so I simplified there... to bring Al Capone :) into the frame).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

bobp
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by bobp »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:to bring Al Capone into the frame
He only served 8 years of his 13 year sentence for multiple charges of tax evasion. Not sure Donald would survive being locked away.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Put these two statements together
"Georgia's certification deadline is November 20.
Michigan's and Pennyslvania's are November 23.


Additionally, a top Senate GOP official tells CNN this morning that Republican leadership has told senators they expect this to not drag on “no more than another week.”
and it would point to the Republicans (as in 'the party') having decided to save face after the Georgia recount finishes.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

One ex law professor (specialisation: US Constitution)
" In an interview that will air on CBS’ “60 Minutes” on Sunday, former President Barack Obama said Republicans were walking a “dangerous path” by endorsing Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud."

I am sure that later we will see other types of law professors to step up, to be asked about how it is looking for the former President Trump.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Remove everyone from the posts that are there to defend the state, Barr ;) one
from 3 days back. And in today's news
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN27U02N
- so DoJ is stacking evidence up... let's see if the AG has the bottle to push on (or by backing off he will have pleased all sides)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The Diplomat states in a recent article that China has purposefully stoked crises with India, Japan, and Taiwan during 2020 with frequent military incursions. Beijing clearly sees the cultivation of tensions as an instrument of statecraft, a tactic for intimidating the adversary into acceding to China’s wishes.

This statecraft may have a demonstration effect on the smaller nations, around the SCS, but
- has caused Trump, in his waning days, to sell everything possible to Taiwan, to enhance its self-defence capabilities
- leaving the question for Biden whether he will play the containment card more extensively than his predecessors, e.g. by working on a more general 'umbrella arrangement' stretching from Japan to India - in lieu of the earlier emphasis on bilateral arrangements.

A much more complicated task, sure, than getting back to seamless co-operation with key Atlanticist nations, but the potential pay-off (in relieving America's 'burden') is of the same order of magnitude, comparing UK+Germany with Japan+India,
United States. GDP: $19.48 trillion. ...
China. GDP: $12.23 trillion. ...
Japan. GDP: $4.87 trillion. ...
Germany. GDP: $3.69 trillion. ...
India. GDP: $2.65 trillion. ...
United Kingdom. GDP: $2.63 trillion. ...
France. GDP: $2.58 trillion. ...
or more if you try to assess from a POTUS POV how pressing it is to get the approach to China right relative to any changes to the posture with regard to Russia.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

I think that the easiest and most significant thing that a Biden administration could do to advance the containment of China would be joining the TPP.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Didn't China just cobble together their own equivalent?
- prepared the ground with a development bank... will be needed when all those debt-trapped nations come out of their 'soft loans'
...I believe we have promised to chip in, too; the good chaps we are
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Didn't China just cobble together their own equivalent?
- prepared the ground with a development bank... will be needed when all those debt-trapped nations come out of their 'soft loans'
...I believe we have promised to chip in, too; the good chaps we are
From what I understand the RCEP is a looser and less comprehensive agreement. I think that if the US really want to contain China they probably need to get India firmly in their corner as a counterweight. Obviously, that would push Pakistan more firmly toward China but they've been heading in that direction anyway and they've never been a reliable ally for the US.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

I seem to recognise at least one :) of the authors in the Foreign Affairs article:
Why U.S. Security Depends on Alliances—Now More Than Ever
By Kori Schake, Jim Mattis, Jim Ellis, and Joe Felter
November 23, 2020

The leading thought might reappear (paraphrased) in our own IR doc:
"As capable as the U[.S.] military is, the United [States’] principal adversaries are more constrained by its network of alliances than by its military might.
But continued failure to adequately invest in relationships with allies and partners and to cooperate with them to shape the international environment risks the erosion of this network—allowing a long-tended garden to become choked with weeds. Even worse, it could result in the emergence of other, competing networks, presaging an international order from which the United [States] is excluded, unable to influence outcomes because it is simply not present."
- the nice guy I am, have marked where substitutions are called for ;)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Who needs enemies if you have friends like this?
" Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is moving $455 billion of unspent stimulus money into a fund the incoming Biden administration can't deploy without Congress"
- Mnuchin's likely successor, Janet Yellen that is
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

If Biden wins; "one day I will not be President"
... and without my show, mainstream media will die
and other terrible things will happen
- just before 8 minutes run time
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Of the still missing nominations https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/21/poli ... 8685243499 one probably should not read much into education and commerce, but
- the AG, and
- the head of CIA
posts must be receiving a lot of thought as undoing the damage inflicted during Trump years will be a delicate 'job' - as if each of the two jobs wouldn't need the full attention of anyone doing them under ' Biz As Usual'
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Well, Biden did win.

And what a canvass did Trump help to paint, against which to do the nominations for a proper' spring clean' in the Justice Dept
... which just got done
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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