If Biden wins

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J. Tattersall

If Biden wins

Post by J. Tattersall »

Interesting from The What & The Why http://www.thewhatandthewhy.com/if-biden-wins/

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Re: If Biden wins

Post by R686 »

J. Tattersall wrote:Interesting from The What & The Why http://www.thewhatandthewhy.com/if-biden-wins/
Don't know enough about him but will go out on a limb and say trumps time is up.

But then i thought he would not get up in the first place under first past the post he would have lost to Clinton

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RichardIC
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by RichardIC »

Seems a sensible analysis.

Only bit I strongly disagreed with was the "cleverly worded personal insults". Nothing clever has ever emirated from Trump.

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: If Biden wins

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Trump will win a second term i suspect. His 'floor' is rock solid and Biden will either dodge the debates or lose them in the eyes of most swing voters.

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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Scimitar54 »

From an outsider’s perspective, neither of them has a leg to stand on and neither has a hope in hell of uniting the US population for the next four years. Both parties have and by their choice of candidates, continue to “let their electorate down”. I will freely admit however, that this is a US decision only, and it is of interest to me only in as much as it affects the rest of the “Free World”. I do not intend to comment further on this and I offer my apologies in advance to any of our American cousins who may feel offended by what I have said.

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SKB
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by SKB »

I predict a Trump win. Afterall, they also elected George 'Dubya' Bush twice.... :mrgreen:

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Re: If Biden wins

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I predict that if Trump wins it won't be because a plurality of US voters voted for him.

The three scenarios that I think are most likely at the minute are (in no particular order):

- A narrow Trump win where the GOP retains the Senate but with a decreased majority and the Democrats retain the House with a slightly reduced majority.
- A narrow Biden win where the GOP probably retains the Senate with no more than their current majority but it might end up in Democratic hands due to a 50/50 split and the Democrats retain the House with about the same or slightly smaller majority than they currently have.
- A "Blue-Tsunami" landslide where Biden wins more than 370 electoral votes, the Democrats win a majority in the Senate and gain ten or so seats in the House.

Personally, I'd prefer the latter scenario if only because it's what the Republicans deserve for enabling Trump and a crushing defeat would most likely encourage the GOP to ditch Trumpism.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote:only because it's what the Republicans deserve for enabling Trump
Closely reminds me of what Labour got for some of the grandees signing to support the previous leaders eligibility to run in the first place... just to make the otherwise 'dull' race more interesting

In both cases folks certainly got more than what they wished for
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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whitelancer
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by whitelancer »

I am a firm believer that people get the government that they deserve, after all they are no more than a reflection of the people they govern. What that tells us about the USA and UK with their current governments I will leave to others.

BlueD954
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by BlueD954 »

Too many ifs unless Trump is like Bush senior.

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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Defiance »

Politics has been an absolute pit on both sides of the Atlantic for the last few years - I expect Trump will win

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Yahoo News take on the VP candidates debate:
No flies on me, said Pence " as he methodically attempted to sand the rough edges off every controversial aspect of Trump’s record."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

If the "if" in the header happens, then perhaps these nominations will get reversed
- the story through AP, today

"The Trump White House has installed two political operatives at the nation’s top public health agency to try to control the information it releases about the coronavirus pandemic as the administration seeks to paint a positive outlook, sometimes at odds with the scientific evidence.

The two appointees assigned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Atlanta headquarters in June have no public health background, [report Jason Dearen, Mike Stobbe and Richard Lardner]
have instead been tasked with keeping an eye on Dr. Robert Redfield, the agency director, as well as scientists, according to a half-dozen CDC and administration officials who spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal government affairs."
- underline added
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

What happened to Trump's $ trn infrastructure investment prgrm? Voters did not pay attention to it being unfunded (even by any fictive calculations).

Washington Post writes two days ago:
"After repeatedly touting infrastructure during his 2016 campaign, Trump has through four years in office failed to advance infrastructure legislation through Congress. Under his administration, federal investments on roads and bridges as a share of the economy have remained stagnant, while federal spending on water infrastructure projects have fallen to a 30-year low."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:What happened to Trump's $ trn infrastructure investment prgrm? Voters did not pay attention to it being unfunded (even by any fictive calculations).
There wasn't enough support within the Congressional Republicans to pass such the legislation for such a programme. That said, even during the election it didn't seem like a big priority for Trump, the only infrastructure project that got a really enthusiastic response at his rallies was the southern border wall.

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Re: If Biden wins

Post by R686 »

whitelancer wrote:I am a firm believer that people get the government that they deserve, after all they are no more than a reflection of the people they govern. What that tells us about the USA and UK with their current governments I will leave to others.

Sorry I have to disagree with that: people can only vote for whom is on the ballot paper. If it’s a choice between dumb and dumber who does one vote for.

In an Australian context I can’t say what happens in the US/UK as I don’t know the system well enough

The problem is attracting high caliber people to government in the 1st place. I am a believer of paying for good people to serve in Parliament but just like the private sector when you time is up the gravy train stops. By all means give the high pay and super but they can only access those funds just like every else

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The moment the vote count comes out, cartoons around the event will break the internet:
https://tineye.com/search/fa55f85d2a37b ... esc&page=1
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

There's not much (anymore) about elections for POTUS that can surprise me, but this ( the summary is from Jerusalem Post) did:
"According to a poll commissioned by the American Jewish Committee, 75 percent of those polled said they were voting for Biden, the former vice president under former President Barack Obama, and just 22% said they were voting for incumbent president Donald Trump.
Trump’s approval rating amongst US Jews was similar, with 22% saying they think Trump has taken the US in a good direction, compared to 77% who disagreed.
The poll was conducted by the SSRS company on a sample of 1,334 US Jews above the age of 18 between Sept. 9 and Oct.4 with a margin of error of 4.2%. "

Trump had so carefully been storing all the 'peace thunder' in the ME to be re;eased close to the election
... and this is the result!

What does it augur as for the Biden Administration ME policy?
- have not picked up any mentions
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:There's not much (anymore) about elections for POTUS that can surprise me, but this ( the summary is from Jerusalem Post) did:
"According to a poll commissioned by the American Jewish Committee, 75 percent of those polled said they were voting for Biden, the former vice president under former President Barack Obama, and just 22% said they were voting for incumbent president Donald Trump.
Trump’s approval rating amongst US Jews was similar, with 22% saying they think Trump has taken the US in a good direction, compared to 77% who disagreed.
The poll was conducted by the SSRS company on a sample of 1,334 US Jews above the age of 18 between Sept. 9 and Oct.4 with a margin of error of 4.2%. "

Trump had so carefully been storing all the 'peace thunder' in the ME to be re;eased close to the election
... and this is the result!

What does it augur as for the Biden Administration ME policy?
- have not picked up any mentions
I don't think that Israel and the Middle East are overriding issues for most non-orthodox Jews. My impression is that an awful lot of American Jews aren't keen on Netanyahu and wish Israel well but much in the way that you wish your cousin that you're not particularly close to well. Frankly, I think that most American Jews are probably more concerned about Trump's nudge and wink encouragement of domestic far-right and antisemitic groups.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

There's much to do in Europe
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-c ... ze=640,486
where rating the US favourably has at least halved during Trump's reign
- the same for Canada (took quite a pummeling when Trump wanted to rewrite NAFTA pretty much unilaterally, though it was called a negotiation)
- not as marked deterioration in Japan and Australia. Is it them being closer to China that makes Trump's hard line find favour?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:There's much to do in Europe
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-c ... ze=640,486
where rating the US favourably has at least halved during Trump's reign
- the same for Canada (took quite a pummeling when Trump wanted to rewrite NAFTA pretty much unilaterally, though it was called a negotiation)
- not as marked deterioration in Japan and Australia. Is it them being closer to China that makes Trump's hard line find favour?
The fact is that post-WW2 American leadership has largely been based on the idea that they would be responsible global actors. While that was undermined by George W. Bush's administration it's been quite seriously broken by Trump. It's going to take a while to re-establish it if it can be. While it's going to be very tempting for a Biden administration to try and re-engage with the world on the same terms that it did prior to Trump's election I don't think that it's going to be entirely possible. I think that the US might need to show a bit of humility and sit on the naughty step on a few issues, letting other western countries take the lead and backing them up. If they do decide to do that then who replaces Merkel as Chancellor will be critical.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote:If they do decide to do that then who replaces Merkel as Chancellor will be critical.
V true as Atlanticism is much more than US+UK
- the good news is that Biden will embrace Atlanticism
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
Pseudo wrote:If they do decide to do that then who replaces Merkel as Chancellor will be critical.
V true as Atlanticism is much more than US+UK
- the good news is that Biden will embrace Atlanticism
Given the direction the British government appears to be heading in, I think that a Biden administration would prioritise its relationship with the EU and Germany in particular. Of course, that obviously much depends on whether the British government maintains its current trajectory.

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by Zero Gravitas »

The US is collapsing in front of our eyes. Whoever wins they won’t be able to reconcile the other side to their victory.

Plenty of dems believe that Trumpists are all actual Nazis.

A decent number of right wingers think the dems are all terribly corrupt sex offenders.

Where is the middle ground there?

The super-tanker that is the US is heading straight for the massive concrete harbour wall. Both the left propeller and the right are committed to ‘full speed ahead’!

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: If Biden wins

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote: right wingers think the dems are all terribly corrupt sex offenders.
Here it is exactly the other way round (add minors into the soup)
... of course almost all of it a figment of imagination
Zero Gravitas wrote:The US is collapsing in front of our eyes.
They have been; for most of the four years
- watch it though; in half of that time they will bounce back!
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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