post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

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ArmChairCivvy
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post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Though 'history' is a continuum, let's just assume that there has just occurred a decisive (?) break-point:

Who are “the Taliban”? Contrary to popular belief, there is no single “Taliban” and with a blank cheque the US is now negotiating, on the part of everyone who have been involved there in the coalition, with a hydra-like creature, and worse: to an end that has not been defined
- the ex-BBC correspondent Martin Bell has written about how we got the 'good' Taliban mixed up with the bad ones
- that's what could be construed as the start of the 'story' - leaving aside hundreds of years leading up to the 'start'
... and the end?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by abc123 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Though 'history' is a continuum, let's just assume that there has just occurred a decisive (?) break-point:

Who are “the Taliban”? Contrary to popular belief, there is no single “Taliban” and with a blank cheque the US is now negotiating, on the part of everyone who have been involved there in the coalition, with a hydra-like creature, and worse: to an end that has not been defined
- the ex-BBC correspondent Martin Bell has written about how we got the 'good' Taliban mixed up with the bad ones
- that's what could be construed as the start of the 'story' - leaving aside hundreds of years leading up to the 'start'
... and the end?
My prediction- and I hope to be wrong- fall of Afghan Government ( or effective loss of control over country ) within 3 years and need for another military intervention there within 3 years more ( because of Taliban- good or bad ) support for terrorists. :think:
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Looks like the President-elect will inherit something v close to 'Biden Doctrine' which was the alternative to Obama's surge, promoted by JB as the label on 'it' says:

"Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered the first details about the drawdown ...
[and said that] the U.S. military will also continue its two core missions: aiding Afghan security forces who are locked in a grinding conflict with Taliban insurgents and carrying out counterterrorism operations against Islamic State and al Qaeda militants."
- I think the troop numbers promoted, at the time, as necessary to do this were around 5000
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

In the Feb NATO meeting the question of the 10 000 remaining troops (only a quarter of them now American) will come up, and my guess is that the American contingent will be doubled, something v close to 'Biden Doctrine' which was the alternative to Obama's surge
- even the new total would only be a tad higher than what we had there at the peak
- and the whole MND (with other nationalities contributing to it) only covered Helmand+

I would say that making the cutting of al Qaeda ties will be made a hard condition
... which Iran would try to oppose by all means as it is their leverage to the East of their own border

Will China and Russia try to replay the '80s and keep 'the other side' bogged down for as long as possible :?:
- China is keen to get their hands on the copper finds in the North of the country. I don't think NATO is keen to have troops secure their excavation start, so may be interests will be aligned for more stability.
- Russia can intervene all they want in Syria, allegedly to keep extremism from flowing into the Caucasus... is it better ;) to import it from another direction
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Trump is not here anymore... do you copy ;) ?

(Through the Associated Press) "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in his first news conference as Pentagon chief, said Friday that progress toward peace in Afghanistan and an end to U.S. military involvement there depends on the Taliban reducing attacks. He said, right now, “clearly the violence is too high.”["]
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Post-agreement? Ahh, if one agreement does not work, let's make a new one. And the format for it could take shape with the US meeting with Russia, China, and Pakistan - and tellingly that March 18 (have not seen any reporting from it yet) meeting venue is Moscow, not Doha.

To draw a line in the sand (instead Trump's line in water), to back up the need for more serious talks,the US contingent has come down from 8,600 troops to 2,500, sure. But Biden has made it clear that to withdraw the rest before May would be 'tough' ;) unless some miraculous solution is found. Code: will take some time for any solution.
- Likewise, the Germans with the second largest contingent in Afghanistan, have approved extending until 2022.

And funnily (history inverted) Russia has built a strong relationship with contingents of the Northern Alliance OF OLD, namely the leaders of Tajiks and Uzbeks, so as to stabilise their own (ex) border as the future developments in the more southern A-stan are anybody's bet.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

An interesting comment on the post-conflict 'state' in A-stan, in the NYT;

" Taliban know that Afghanistan, an aid-dependent state, 80 percent of whose expenditures are funded from international donors, cannot afford the isolation "
- did anyone add the 'poppy' revenues to that
- OK, won;t make up for the 80%
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

abc123
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by abc123 »

So, what do you think about this shit-show in Afghanistan these last few days? Badly planned evacuation.
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

oscar the grouch
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Re: post-'Agreement' Afghanistan

Post by oscar the grouch »

abc123 wrote:So, what do you think about this shit-show in Afghanistan these last few days? Badly planned evacuation.
Lifting my Kilt and laughing like Sid James. what a bloody Carry On.

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