Coronavirus

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

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World's first Covid-19 vaccine patient


(ITV News) 8th December 2020
90-year-old Margaret Keenan, who is from Enniskillen in Northern Ireland and lives in Coventry, is the first person in the UK to be given the Covid-19 vaccine.

The jab, made by Pfizer and BioNTech, is being rolled out across hospital hubs around the UK.

The first vaccinations are being given to care home staff and residents, NHS frontline workers and people aged 80 and over.

Patients will have to receive a second jab in three weeks' time but the retired jeweller - who turns 91 next week - has called the vaccine "the best early birthday present" she could wish for.
First man vaccinated is named William Shakespeare

(Daily Mail) 8th December 2020
His name, and appropriate home county, raised wry smiles on an otherwise landmark day in the history of medicine as Britain's vaccination programme got underway. Social media lit up with humorous Bard-related references (right), with one quipping it was the 'taming of the flu'. The in-patient at University Coventry Hospital's frailty ward, known as Bill, (left) himself said: 'I need to say, the staff at this hospital are wonderful.' On so-called V-Day, hailed as the moment the UK turns the tide on the pandemic, the first vaccines were administered by nurses at the hospital.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

What a surprise:

Hancock says that secondary-age pupils should be mass tested
... would that include the teachers, too? Much more 'willing' targets for those transmissions, as opposed to those from the younger age cohorts
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: Coronavirus

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The Moderna vaccine took a single weekend to design following release of the virus’ genetic code.

The vaccine had been manufactured and started to be shipped for trials by Mid February!

Interim results from the phase 1 trials suggested it was safe to use by May.

And it may now be “possible to do all the research, development, preclinical testing, and Phase I trials for new viral pandemics before those new viruses had even emerged — to have those vaccines sitting on the shelf and ready to go when they did. They also thought it was possible to do this for nearly the entire universe of potential future viral pandemics — at least 90 percent of them”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12 ... esign.html

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote:following release of the virus’ genetic code.
A bit of an aside, but was is not two days between China acknowledging the public health crisis and coming out with the complete DNA?
- they beat the US on Warpspeed... somehow, and by a wide margin
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

albedo
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by albedo »

Zero Gravitas wrote: And it may now be “possible to do all the research, development, preclinical testing, and Phase I trials for new viral pandemics before those new viruses had even emerged — to have those vaccines sitting on the shelf and ready to go when they did. They also thought it was possible to do this for nearly the entire universe of potential future viral pandemics — at least 90 percent of them”
Worth remembering though that we've been quite lucky with the COVID vaccines. It turns out that the SARS2 spike protein (which most of the current vaccine crop are specifically targeted against) does actually seem to be a very effective target. The same won't necessarily be true of other viruses or other diseases - see HIV, malaria, TB etc where finding the right target protein has proven very elusive.

The demonstration that mRNA vaccines can work well is undoubtedly a major step forwards and is a new weapon in the armoury but it's going too far to think of it as a cure-all.

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SKB »

IMPORTANT ADVICE (!)


:mrgreen:

abc123
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by abc123 »

SKB wrote:IMPORTANT ADVICE (!)


:mrgreen:
:clap: :lol:
Fortune favors brave sir, said Carrot cheerfully.
What's her position about heavily armed, well prepared and overmanned armies?
Oh, noone's ever heard of Fortune favoring them, sir.
According to General Tacticus, it's because they favor themselves…

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:What a surprise:

Hancock says that secondary-age pupils should be mass tested
The above was 18 days ago.

Now (thru @SkyNews)
Michael Gove confirms only primary school children, children of key workers and secondary school children in years 11 and 13 will go back to school on the 4th January.

Other children will be taught remotely for at least the first week.

Operative words:
in the first one should; in the second one 'at least'

Many other instances (teachers' org included) say that it will take at least to the end of the month (of Jan) to put anything workable&safe in place as for secondary education aged pupils - in this context I hesitate to call them children
- this was (before any knowledge of the new trait) clear for anyone to see (coming) two months or so ago
- the pressure for SAGE advice (and how they have balanced the risks to arrive at the advice) to be published is growing by the day
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

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This (thru AFP) has been evident for months, from the gap between Covid deaths and excess deaths (the lqtter 230 000).
"The number currently stands at 55,265 deaths from COVID-19, but the Rosstat federal state statistic service says the true figure is much, much higher, and reports 186,057 people dying with the disease.

This would mean Russia has the third worst death toll to the virus, behind that of the US and Brazil."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

From this
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqelGaYXYAA ... name=small
it is evident that T4 actually did not work at all for the new strain (while the tiers system did reasonably work for the 'old' version)

The next front has opened since: schools are safe - sure thing
Prof Michie, who is also a member of the Independent Sage group, responded:

PM Boris Johnson says today that schools are safe. This is untrue & prevents the necessary measures that need to be taken to make them safe eg. ventilation & distancing (which requires space in unused buildings & extra staff). See plan for safe schools from @IndependentSage
... did not find it there, but e.g. PPE levels (priority hospitals and care homes first) have huge gaps. Schools are spending massively and the gvmnt has allocated the monies to plug that gap... but has not released them :?:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Before today's The Telegraph headline, the count was 400 volunteered; 50 ticked all the boxes (did those boxes relate in any real way to the focussed task at hand? They are not coming in for General Practice in the normal sense of the word)

" Matt Hancock to cut red tape stopping retired doctors signing up to Covid vaccination drive

- - Officials will aim to remove unnecessary checks while ensuring that safety is maintained "
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The PM has made some serious and well-structured announcements, but some bits 'missing in action'
... he completely failed to mention in his speech was the NHS Test and Trace system . Which, Yahoo News notes was once hailed by the government as the route out of England’s lockdown.

"The scheme, which has so far cost the government £22 billion, has been beset with problems since its launch in May.

On Tuesday morning, members of Independent Sage pointed out that NHS Test and Trace was notably absent from the PM’s speech.

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of the independent panel, tweeted: "The most worrying part of 3rd #nationallockdown is that it suggests that the government’s entire plan to get us out of this pandemic is lockdown and vaccines. There was nothing about test & trace; nothing [?] about supporting isolation."
- supporting people isolating has been mentioned in other contexts (surveys indicate that great many who are supposed to be isolating are not doing it or cannot afford to do it), so may be we will hear more from this front
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A good-bye to travel corridors? If no exceptions for any country, for arrivals to the UK
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

albedo
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by albedo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:The PM has made some serious and well-structured announcements, but some bits 'missing in action'
... he completely failed to mention in his speech was the NHS Test and Trace system . Which, Yahoo News notes was once hailed by the government as the route out of England’s lockdown.

"The scheme, which has so far cost the government £22 billion, has been beset with problems since its launch in May.
Trouble is that the time to fix TETRIS** was last summer when COVID incidence was relatively low. There is no hope of it doing anything useful when the number of infections is as high as at present - the numbers involved and the TETRIS logistics just don't work.The purpose of TETRIS is to stop an epidemic getting out of control while there's still time. Once it is actually out of control it's too late and you might as well stand down the effort for all the good it can do.

**TEst/TRace/ISolate if you're unfamiliar

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Re: Coronavirus

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albedo wrote:Trouble is that the time to fix TETRIS** was last summer when COVID incidence was relatively low. There is no hope of it doing anything useful when the number of infections is as high as at present - the numbers involved and the TETRIS logistics just don't work.The purpose of TETRIS is to stop an epidemic getting out of control while there's still time. Once it is actually out of control it's too late and you might as well stand down the effort for all the good it can do.
Agreed. Also worth noting that one of the major reasons for it's lack of success was the fact that a significant portion of the population refused to engage with the scheme, ignoring advice and even blocking the TETRIS phone numbers. You can't do much if the public ignores you and the Police refuse to take enforcement action (as was happening over the Summer).
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote:the Police refuse to take enforcement action (as was happening over the Summer)
I've seen policemen (though they were not working in normal pairs; active resistance I guess was not expected) knocking on doors, to see if people who were supposed to stay in the hse actually were there. And of course dropping tracing much earlier on (than last summer) was the first mistake
- are you both saying that the 22 bn pounds were pretty much wasted?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

albedo
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by albedo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:- are you both saying that the 22 bn pounds were pretty much wasted?
I'm not saying it was wasted exactly but if that sort of estimate is right then it does seem to have been an extraordinary amount of money for what's been achieved. I'd like to see a breakdown of where the spend has gone.

Basically, I do think it was the right idea - a crucial idea even - but poorly executed. A TETRIS operation is a vital element of pandemic control, but it has to be properly designed and run. For instance, adequate payment to those required to stay home and isolate will almost certainly offer better compliance but never featured much in the UK policy. I guess TETRIS will always work better in a more authoritarian or more socially-minded society than the UK, but I can't believe that a more optimal combination of carrot and stick couldn't have been identified.

Edit: And of course (goes without saying), good operational efficiency and value-for-money.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

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albedo wrote:good operational efficiency
I am starting to feel the above coming along and starting to give traction to the vaccination prgrm
... could be just a subjective view?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

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They gave her the podium... and she came with the IMB briefing notes:

"Home Secretary Priti Patel has said that "outdoor recreation" is permitted in a "restricted and limited way" – despite it being prohibited during the lockdown.

Moments after insisting the coronavirus rules are "actually very simple and clear", Ms Patel apparently misspoke during a Downing Street press conference when trying to explain how exercise is permitted"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Every two weeks, now, we rack up the first day of the Battle of the Somme (19,240 dead)
- the latter has been thoroughly analysed, and so must this one (in due course)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A medical study in Nature can be extended into geneoarcheology as in this
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586- ... /figures/3 depiction of prevalence of neanderthal genes in modern human genome
- Americas (colonisation effect dominant) and Africa (no gene interchange due to non-existence of neanderthals there) can be left out
- the by far highest occurrence in S. Asian peoples is a pointer to the Covid vulnerability of that (wrt. origins) part of the UK population (surely NHS studies have done disaggregation within their BAME analysis?)

But the most interesting/ intriguing contrast is between S. and E. Asia
- while generally speaking the older genes contributed to modern humans have been a positive selection factor (have developed counters to some pathogens) and have thus contributed to relative longevity as well
- extending the SARS numbering backwards from 2 (Covid) thru SARS1 to negative numbers for corona virus epidemics in human population in the distant past could be a pointer (as well) to negative selection during such epidemics having been so strong that in the areas of those epidemics a total wipe out has resulted (over many epidemics) for the bearers**). In most respects the continuum (or rather glades, the fading off effect) observed across the Eurasian landmass does not exhibit such sharp ruptures

_______--
**) bearers of what exactly is the topic of the linked article (details in it, right at the beginning to skip the 'heavier' stuff)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The evidence of the WHO knowing more than letting out has been bubbling at least since June.

A widely adopted stance is that it is not the right time to reorganise the fire brigade when there is a blaze ongoing. However with the US rejoining there should be a look at governance (exactly the reason they were leaving), as otherwise the stated way of operating
“The WHO doesn’t interact in public debate or criticize our member states in public. What we try to do is work with our member states constructively.” wont change.

In November, a report by AP noted that there have been plenty of exceptions in the past:
"It’s not unprecedented, however, for WHO to publicly question its member states. It threatened to close its China office when the country was hiding cases during the SARS outbreak, loudly called for Nigeria to reverse its boycott of the polio vaccine in 2003 and accused Tanzania of not sharing enough information about an Ebola epidemic last year."

The review [if any... and is it merely a question of who is in which post?]of WHO’s role in the pandemic comes at a critical time because the agency is now tasked with helping to buy and distribute coronavirus vaccines around the world"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

"Test" seems to be finally working; how about "Trace"?

- a big jump in test turnaround times within 24 hours (up from 31% a fortnight ago to 53.7% last week and now 70.8% )
- on the measure of getting a result ‘next day’, the figure is an impressive 93.8%.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

I think testing has been reasonably effective for some time now, to be fair. Several of my colleagues have needed testing at various times (two positives) and their experience has been between hours and two days (one by the time they'd got back home from the test centre - his wife is an NHS staff member, though, so got fast-tracked). My daughter was working in Quebec over the Summer (she spent nearly two months in full-blown quarantine over 2020) and the slowest result was the private one she had to get just before Christmas (for the Test to Release program), which was a "guaranteed" 24-hour turn-around - that took 2 and a half days.

Trace seems to still be hampered by lack of co-operation as much as organisational issues

At least vaccine production and distribution is moving at an impressive rate (in the UK, anyway - not so much in the EU at the moment)
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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