Coronavirus

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote: Trace seems to still be hampered by lack of co-operation as much as organisational issues
It was quite funny when I was selected for the ONS (take a test and post it) survey.

Only on receiving the negative result, the letter said: NO, you don't need to log yourself onto the Test&Trace system
... somehow :shock: I thought that had the test been positive, THEY would have done it straightaway ??
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:I thought that had the test been positive, THEY would have done it straightaway
I think you have unrealistically high expectations for a Government IT project. That would require joined up thinking.

When you consider that their first instinct for building a database was to use an Excel 95 spreadsheet (not even spending a few hundred quid on the latest version of Excel!), I think things go far deeper than higher management competence - it goes all the way down the chain. The fact that they weren't even aware that that version of Excel had a limitation on the number of rows speaks volumes about the competence of even low-level staff. I've seen numerous examples of majr cock-ups happening because someone inadvertantly overwrote a cell in a "vital" spreadsheet that shouldn't even have existed

A simple contact management system could have been bought off the shelf and installed in days, or a bespoke one designed and coded in a week or two - it's not rocket science.

Maybe I'm being unfair and they were forced into using whatever tools were to hand, because it would take months to get any purchase through standard Govt purchasing procedures
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote: it would take months to get any purchase through standard Govt purchasing procedures
Well, the MoD finally cut down on their half a decade, by coming up with UORs
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Russian statistics for Moscow, 12.5 mln inhabitants
- a third of a million have been vaccinated
- under a mln have been infected (a third of the country-wide statistics total)

Now the restrictions can be run down as half of the local population have already had the disease (the Mayor says)??
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

Probably because he knows that the official statistics are rubbish. Didn’t a senior medic admit a few weeks ago that the real number of deaths was at least triple the official figures?
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote: Didn’t a senior medic admit a few weeks ago that the real number of deaths was at least triple the official figures?
It was RosStat (itself, correcting the figures. I think I linked it), but that then only produced the 3 mln figure (for the whole country, that is).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SKB »


(European Commission) 27th January 2021

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Trump's 'foaming at the mouth' often had unintended consequences... like this one:

" During March and April 2020, the University of Oxford negotiated a deal which would allow Merck to manufacture and distribute the vaccine it was in the process of developing.

The arrangement made sense. Unlike British-Swedish AstraZeneca, Merck had experience in making vaccines. Its senior executives had links to Oxford scientist and government adviser Sir John Bell.

Yet when the contract reached Matt Hancock's desk, the former adviser said, the health secretary refused to approve it, because it didn't include provisions specifically committing to supply the UK first.

The fear was export controls - not from the EU, but from the US. Mr Hancock was worried that president Trump would stop vaccines from Merck leaving the country."
- from SkyNews of today @03:45
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Defiance
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Defiance »

SKB wrote:
I might dislike your stance on Brexit SKB but even I gotta admit that's bang on the money. It's one of the few recent events to actually unite both sides of the debate and call the EU out on their bulls**t (and then have the gall to threaten us to not start 'vaccine nationalism')

W**kers

SW1
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SW1 »

Gd read on vaccines and there supply


TheLoneRanger
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by TheLoneRanger »

SKB wrote:
Truly Truly Truly Truly Truly Truly Truly shocking to see the EU push that red button as casually as it did for Article 16. The fact they did not even consult Dublin shows you the rot at core of the EU.

I have had a rag fit on this already once this week, my blood pressure cannot take another one...

Additionally, the UK internal single market is quite comprimised with regards to the NI, but we have not gone anywhere near Article 16, instead we have focussed taken the issues head on, the pain head on, and we as a country are working with companies on the new complexities of the unique position of NI and what it means for imports and exports.

TheLoneRanger
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by TheLoneRanger »

SW1 wrote:Gd read on vaccines and there supply

A lot of sensible decisions made by the UK to derisk the supply by transferring the financial risk to UK tax payers(excellent decision to help things move alot), to help to shoulder the investment costs in setting up new manufacturing sites for the vaccine in the UK and also all of the new infrastructure(eg fridges ) to store and transport it.

Whatever you think of Matt Hancocks fumbling TV interviews/etc ( something he is not comfortable in ), behind the scenes, as a manager of his area and responsbilities, he has done a very good job alongside his team and the cabinet ...

Additionally, we funded research at NO profit to the UK by providing it for a NON-PROFIT basis to anyone who wants to manufacture it.. look at SerumIndia ....

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SKB »

AstraZeneca plc is headquartered in Cambridge, UK and listed on London's FTSE 100. Therefore it is a British company, not an EU one.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

TheLoneRanger wrote:we funded research at NO profit to the UK by providing it for a NON-PROFIT basis to anyone who wants to manufacture it..
Hopping a bit, but still about principles: AP reports today that
"Some hospitals around the U.S. are facing complaints about favoritism and line-jumping after their board members and donors received COVID-19 vaccinations or offers for the prized inoculations. In Rhode Island, an inquiry was opened after reports that two hospital systems offered their board members vaccinations. A Seattle-area hospital system was rebuked by the governor after it offered vaccination appointments to major donors."

NHS has a clear policy of "Frontline First" but as there has been a big push to expand capacity in the parallel system (or chains, rather)
... I wonder what's going on there. I seriously don't know who gets their hands on batches (other than NHS organised centres/ practices/ pharmacies...)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Covid passports are facing all kinds of headwinds, but quite a novel proposal from Estonia, for creating a travel bubble with Finland.

The two national testing systems could be synchronised by using the already integrated digital prescription services: test before the trip, you will know by SMS but at the arrival end an "official" document is digitally available for inspection, and also expires after entry
... rinse and repeat
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Covid passports are facing all kinds of headwinds, but quite a novel proposal from Estonia, for creating a travel bubble with Finland.

The two national testing systems could be synchronised by using the already integrated digital prescription services: test before the trip, you will know by SMS but at the arrival end an "official" document is digitally available for inspection, and also expires after entry
... rinse and repeat
ArmChairCivvy wrote:Covid passports are facing all kinds of headwinds, but quite a novel proposal from Estonia, for creating a travel bubble with Finland.

The two national testing systems could be synchronised by using the already integrated digital prescription services: test before the trip, you will know by SMS but at the arrival end an "official" document is digitally available for inspection, and also expires after entry
... rinse and repeat
We should be looking at (and are possibly already discussing) something similar between the British Isles and Ireland (I know that Ireland is technically part of the British Isles, but..... well, history!), particularly if, as already suggested in a semi-official, mumbling sort of way, the UK starts diverting excess doses to the Republic first - makes a logical offshore "travel bubble" with relatively easily controlled borders.

Ireland would come after the BoTs (already in progress, but it would only take approx. two day's production to finish supplying all of them with both shots, so not a massive task).

Not sure what to do about the rest of Europe, firstly since their vaccine woes are basically self-inflicted and the European Commission's inept response has left a sour taste in the mouth (there are already reports of intimidation against NI Customs workers by the paramilitaries, to the extent that two ports have stood down their customs staff) and secondly because there aren't any other clear-cut "travel bubbles" that we could assist, (maybe the Iberian Peninsula?). It might be, from a historical perspective, a nice idea to assist our oldest ally, Portugal, but I think there is greater justification in supplying poorer nations, starting with the poorer Commonwealth members and working from there.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote: a logical offshore "travel bubble" with relatively easily controlled borders.
There are not many details (as it is still only a proposal) but the system (forgeries, favours, whatever) is not only digital - access anywhere, to view, if authorised - but the only people who can (with smart card ID) create any "records" into the system (s, two of them in the case described) are doctors, if outside their normal place of work
Caribbean wrote: because there aren't any other clear-cut "travel bubbles" that we could assist, (maybe the Iberian Peninsula?)
All for it, but Portugal is blinking Red-Red
... then you move on, to the vaccines topic, all for that, too
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

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TheLoneRanger
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by TheLoneRanger »

SKB wrote:
Sad to hear this, The last of a generation who did us proud and whose sacrifices helped build the country we live in now.

bobp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by bobp »

Gone but not forgotten, a true Hero, rest in peace.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The Gvmnt (according to The Telegraph)
"seeking to requisition accommodation on an exclusive basis for an initial 45-day period - up until March 31 - but it expects the hotels to extend on a rolling basis beyond that point, with the daily rate capped at up to £80 for a room and three meals a day. "

Seems like a financial innovation to seek an open-ended option, at a premium of £ zero to be paid for it
- what can we read between the lines?
- no one else allowed to stay anywhere in April, May...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The WHO say that there was no 'escape from lab' and SkyNews says, on that story that
"Sceptics will pour over the full WHO report explaining their reasoning".

By way of probabilities, what was brought back from the bat caves (to Wuhan, somewhat documented over the last decade), would have needed at least 50 years of circulation with humans to be modified to the the form that was published (as DNA sequence) two days after the the official acknowledgement of a pandemic 'in making'. SO,
- was it modified in 'limited circulation' within small, not connected populations in southern China, or
- was it modified in the labs?

The WHO needs to continue to investigate (the other theories) and the question comes back to why information was held back in the early months.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:would have needed at least 50 years of circulation with humans to be modified to the the form that was published
That could be accelerated by culturing in a lab environment. Each "generation" would only take a fraction of the time that it might take in a natural environment. As I commented earlier, there are a considerable number of detailed questions to be answered satisfactorily.

The theory that a virus derived from a species of bat found in China was introduced to China on frozen food packaging from elsewhere is extremely dubious without a complete chain of evidence
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote:That [50 years] could be accelerated by culturing in a lab environment. Each "generation" would only take a fraction of the time that it might take in a natural environment.
We are saying the same; I was just stating the benchmark, derived from random simulations replicating how it would, or even could, happen "un-aided".
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Further, from a Reuters piece today:
"Liang Wannian, head of China’s expert panel on the outbreak, said there was evidence of coronavirus infections that could have preceded the first detected case by “several weeks”.

“This suggests that we cannot rule out that it was circulating in other regions and the circulation was unreported,” he told the briefing."

Oh yeah:
other regions, yes
several weeks (= less than the cover up)
several years, more likely ( = why was the initial virus trait branded "B" before knowing the genome, after "C" then made the stickers more specific?)
... where's "A" in this evolution?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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