Coronavirus

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The lag in getting reliable stats together is an obvious hindrance, but in this (22 Oct view)
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/ ... e-movement
two things stand out:
- Green is only blinking at the extreme edges of Europe (northern Nordic 'provinces' and the extreme South of the Balkans)
- Brussels has disqualified data from Belgium(!) and the UK for being the 'testing laggards'
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Brussels has disqualified data from Belgium(!) and the UK for being the 'testing laggards'
Perhaps they should look at Worldometer, it has the current figures for both countries
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Exactly the point I was trying to make:
raw feeds for quality of data do not make... so applied some quick filters as to which countries are closest to the US in new cases and new deaths, with the last number being the qualifier for data quality (tests per million of inhabitants)



USA +1,049 +7 422,746 (population tested 0.4 times)
UAE +1,312 +3 1,298,883 (higher quality, 1.3 times over)
Lithuania +950 +6 368,272 (0.37 being abt the same as for US)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
I am starting to see why we sometimes differ
- however, with corona it should not be about whose statistics are the prettiest,
- but rather what actions would they be pointing to. Just to give you an example: how should the borders in Europe be controlled - and controlled they will be - in a less chaotic way than in the spring
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A strange formulation in a BBC story @15:40, leading up to the 1700 announcements:
"On Friday, 274 deaths were announced, meaning that since the start of the pandemic 46,229 people have died within 28 days of a positive test."
- long-Covid folks don't count? ... or just a linguistic accident by a journo in haste?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

And the answer did not take long, thru Sky
@16:24 on the latest figures

"Separate figures published by the UK's statistics agencies for deaths where COVID-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate, together with additional data on deaths that have occurred in recent days, show there have now been 62,000 deaths involving COVID-19 in the UK."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

albedo
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by albedo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:A strange formulation in a BBC story @15:40, leading up to the 1700 announcements:
- long-Covid folks don't count? ... or just a linguistic accident by a journo in haste?
Long Covid usually refers to persistent but chronic symptoms lasting long after the normal 2-3 weeks for recovering from a bout of COVID, eg 'brain fog' serious fatigue and many others. Long Covid can be seriously unpleasant but doesn't usually cause death. It's also notable that while the incidence of long Covid is, to a degree, age-related, it's not at all uncommon for younger adults to suffer badly from the condition.

The confusion about 'within 28 days' vs 'on the death certificate' arises because in certain cases, eg with other co-morbidities, it's not easy to say for sure that with Covid was the cause of death or 'only' a contributory factor. It's certainly the case that some die of Covid after 28 days and also that some with a confirmed case of Covid die from other unrelated causes, though that number is pretty small.

But if you're going to monitor the progress of a pandemic then you need a clearly defined metric and the 'within 28 days' serves that purpose well. Everyone knows that it's not 100% accurate but it's a pretty good guide and is a metric that's not going to change its meaning or be subject to interpretation. Ultimately of course it's the excess deaths that are the important benchmark, but death rates do vary to an extent from year to year, season to season etc, so even excess deaths isn't a figure known with high accuracy.

Incidentally the attached graphic (from Daniel Griffin at TWiV**) is an excellent illustration of the typical time-course of COVID infection. The main take-homes are:

1. Covid is a 3-phase disease. The first/incubation period is immediately post-infection and can last for a variable time before the person is aware of any symptoms.

2. But the virus is steadily multiplying during incubation and, curiously, seems to peak just before symptoms start to be noticed. Infectivity will roughly parallel the viral load and is one of the most insidious features of Covid - it is highly infectious BEFORE the person is aware of symptoms. (Which is why contact tracing/isolation is so important to control the spread.)

3. You then have a week or so of symptoms, which may be mild or may be bad. But it's at the end of that (usually second) week that the disease takes one of two courses. Many, especially younger, people recover and start to feel better. But a proportion start to become seriously ill if the inflammatory stage starts and it's at that stage (ie typically about 2 weeks' post infection) that hospital admission are necessary. In the worst cases, death may occur 4-5 weeks post-infection. It's obviously this lag between infection and hospitalisation & (eg 2 weeks longer) death that requires government action well before all the figures start to spiral out of control.

** Sorry - it won't upload: 'The board quota has been reached???' I'll try again later.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

albedo wrote:even excess deaths isn't a figure known with high accuracy.
All agreed and excess deaths has too much lag to be useful for decisions that are needed quickly
- the fabled R is also a bit of guess work. After the fact information gets better, but is of less use by then
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zero Gravitas »

12 people infected with Mink coronavirus - seems like it has been transmitted from humans to minks and the mink mutated version was capable of again crossing back over the species barrier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

Denmark killing all mink on the basis that this mutation of the virus is a threat to any vaccine.

But if it’s already been transmitted to people the it’s not happy-happy-joy-joy. I imagine.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Only the third country sounds the alarm??
""We have a great responsibility towards our own population, but with the mutation that has now been found, we have an even greater responsibility for the rest of the world as well," she [the PM] told a news conference.

Minks at more than 1,000 farms are to be culled. Police Chief Thorkild Fogde said it would be a "very large undertaking".

Spain culled 100,000 minks in July after cases were detected at a farm in Aragón province, and tens of thousands of the animals were slaughtered in the Netherlands following outbreaks on farms there.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies
Two things come to mind - isn't there an already well-known disease out there that acts by "weakening the body's immune system" and wasn't some unfortunate researcher given a resounding "intellectual" kicking earlier in the year for daring to point out that there were certain similarities between elements of the coronavirus and this other disease.

Cue the Chinese apologist
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

I couldn't remember the references for the above,

but for certain, when the dust settles, the question of how the virus (as it started out) was so optimised for 'docking' into human cells.
-even the wildest case (simulation path 1 in 100 000 or 1 000 000, as mutations are a random process) gives abt 50 yrs for that
- so the researchers went there 50 years ago, the bats took a nible and 'the rest' is history
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: Coronavirus

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Caribbean wrote:
the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies
Two things come to mind - isn't there an already well-known disease out there that acts by "weakening the body's immune system" and wasn't some unfortunate researcher given a resounding "intellectual" kicking earlier in the year for daring to point out that there were certain similarities between elements of the coronavirus and this other disease.

Cue the Chinese apologist
Terrifying.

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: Coronavirus

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Denmark has been taken off the UK's coronavirus travel corridor list, the transport secretary has said.

Passengers arriving in the UK from 04:00 GMT on Friday will need to self-isolate for 14 days.
Grant Shapps said it was an "urgent decision" taken overnight following recent "developments".

It comes after health authorities in Denmark found a mutated form of coronavirus that can pass to humans was present in the country's mink farms.

The announcement was made at around 01:30 GMT - two and a half hours before the change came into force.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54835538

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote:The announcement was made at around 01:30 GMT - two and a half hours before the change came into force.
Well, fairly exceptional circumstances, but look at the website announcing the two others (in less haste):
"Passengers arriving into the UK from Germany and Sweden from 4am on Saturday 7 November 2020 will need to self-isolate for 2 weeks before then following domestic rules"
- no grammar/ commas for the right contexting

And that's the :thumbdown: for the Swedish model, if someone will still try to promote it for here.

BUT: on the factual side of things Boris was saying (in Parliament) that btw the Swedish model is not a slam-dunk, but then quoted the 'wrong' facts, namely
- in Sweden over 15 yrs cannot attend in class rooms
- whereas here we have 'the' schools open
... totally ignoring the fact that over 15s are as much carriers/ spreaders as grown ups are. So the staff in education (with those age groups) are now being put into the same, or worse, position as NHS staffers the last time around. When they didn't have. or did not have the right. or did not have enough of. EPP - in this case the incidence is less, but protection (other than bubbles) also close to non-existent.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Interesting (not short of amazing) how Covid dropped in stated voter priorities; prior to election v high and in exit polls less so. Considering that the death toll is well past the cost (in combat deaths) of fighting fascism in Europe
U.S. Combat Dead by Theater of war: Europe–Atlantic 183,588
- Asia–Pacific 108,504
and headed for the total across both WW2 theaters
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SKB »

Pfizer announces COVID-19 vaccine is "90% effective".

bobp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by bobp »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Interesting (not short of amazing)
Yes its a big number, but as a percentage of population quite low. I hope that some normality will return once Trump finally goes.

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RichardIC
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Re: Coronavirus

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Widespread role-out is probably months away. This vaccine has to be kept at an incredibly low temperature which makes it a real challenge to store and distribute.

There's also going to be a massive push for people who are actually qualified to both give the shots and deal with the associated admin.

In the short term it's more important that people get the flu vaccination if they're entitled to it and don't get reckless with the social distancing and face covering because they think we've found a "cure".

albedo
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Re: Coronavirus

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RichardIC wrote:Widespread role-out is probably months away. This vaccine has to be kept at an incredibly low temperature which makes it a real challenge to store and distribute.
I think the low temperature angle is being somewhat overblown, certainly for the UK (distribution in the tropics may be more of a challenge). -70 to -80C which is the temperature being talked about is dry ice temp and all sorts of biological samples are regularly distributed in dry ice. Does it need more careful distribution than something at normal frozen food temps (eg -20C) - yes certainly. But Pfizer have reportedly been working hard on transit packaging to ensure that the low storage temp is maintained during distribution. I regularly see tankers on the road with eg liquid nitrogen at -200C so there's nothing intrinsically tricky about transport in dry ice.

The Moderna mRNA vaccine is quite similar in technology and formulation to the Pfizer one (and incidentally is likely to be the next one to release an interim data analysis, perhaps in the next 2-4 weeks - shame the UK doesn't seem to have purchased that one) but apparently only needs storage at -20C. It may well be that Pfizer are being extra cautious with their temperature recommendations and further stability data will confirm that -20C distribution is OK.

Also: Anyone else think that the numbers in the Pfizer report don't quite tally with the release date. My reading is that they had enough data to release a positive preliminary outcome a week (or more) ago but chose not to do so ;)

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RichardIC
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Re: Coronavirus

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albedo wrote:I think the low temperature angle is being somewhat overblown
Maybe, maybe not. Don't know. I'm sure it's all doable but scaling it up is going to be the challenge.

I don't think you can transport vaccines in tankers and developing specialist packaging is one thing, but making it appear in global quantities overnight isn't going to happen.

The people bit though is certainly an issue and as usual on this board,which is "kit" and tech obsessed, that's always overlooked.

You're looking at a system that was understaffed to begin with, has been on an emergency footing for nine months, is trying to deliver the biggest immunisation programme ever in a socially distanced way which makes everything slower (flu) and is now going to be asked to deliver a much bigger one.

And I'm not even talking about the NHS in general. Most of this is going to fall on primary care and community services, which are the most under-resourced because politicians are fixated on hospitals.

albedo
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by albedo »

RichardIC wrote: I don't think you can transport vaccines in tankers and developing specialist packaging is one thing, but making it appear in global quantities overnight isn't going to happen.
Indeed not, but I was just pointing out that shipping stuff around at very low temperatures is nothing new (in UK winter/spring conditions at least). It's a bit of a challenge and needs extra arrangements & precautions, but that's all and it's commonly done already. And very possibly it will turn out that -20C is perfectly acceptable. The Pfizer special containers are apparently good for 7-10 days of shipping, can be refilled with new dry ice if required and the vaccine can be held at less extreme temperatures (-20C or even in a standard fridge) for a few days before use.
The people bit though is certainly an issue and as usual on this board,which is "kit" and tech obsessed, that's always overlooked.
Well yes, but it's not as if there's not been detailed planning and training going on for this for the past several weeks, mostly via GP surgeries AIUI. And the vaccine will not be coming through at a rate of more than say 60,000 doses/day in a steady state I would have thought, possibly more like half that to start with at least. Spread across 600 GP surgeries plus similar facilities at hospitals etc that's not going to be more than around 60 jabs/day at each location - not much more than an hour's work (OK, maybe 2 hours if you factor in the 2 jabs 21 days apart) if my GP's flu vaccination sessions are anything to go by. Vaccinating a sizable proportion (30%?) of the population is going to be spread out over 6-9 months presumably - vaccine supply will be one limiting factor.

We can debate the exact numbers but I'm just suggesting that it's not an insuperable logistical challenge even for staff numbers - many surgeries will have eg 6-10 staff (if not more) capable of administering the jabs.

topman
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Re: Coronavirus

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Most surgeries near me are already swamped, very difficult to get an appointment. I'm not sure they'll do it much by themselves, particularly not in GP surgeries.
I suspect they'll set up mass inoculation centres, with all manner of people being trained up to give the jabs.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

topman wrote:suspect they'll set up mass inoculation centres, with all manner of people
Around my area the flu jabs were done in that way, with drive-thru the main option, but walk-thru also arranged. As opposed to the 'normal' of a nurse doing it and 'off you go' there was a doctor doing it and another one on stand-by
... a general rehearsal for what's to come?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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RichardIC
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RichardIC »

albedo wrote:Well yes, but it's not as if there's not been detailed planning and training going on for this for the past several weeks, mostly via GP surgeries AIUI. And the vaccine will not be coming through at a rate of more than say 60,000 doses/day in a steady state I would have thought, possibly more like half that to start with at least. Spread across 600 GP surgeries plus similar facilities at hospitals etc that's not going to be more than around 60 jabs/day at each location - not much more than an hour's work (OK, maybe 2 hours if you factor in the 2 jabs 21 days apart) if my GP's flu vaccination sessions are anything to go by. Vaccinating a sizable proportion (30%?) of the population is going to be spread out over 6-9 months presumably - vaccine supply will be one limiting factor.

We can debate the exact numbers but I'm just suggesting that it's not an insuperable logistical challenge even for staff numbers - many surgeries will have eg 6-10 staff (if not more) capable of administering the jabs.
I'm afraid that's totally underplaying the nature of the challenge. This is going to be a huge logistical effort, with Matt Hancock specifically flagging the issues of storage at low temperature as an issue on Today this morning. This is going to be a seven day a week operation for a system that is already stretched beyond capacity. It's also a two-stage vaccine which immediately doubles the effort required.

Add into this that the first cohort of people to be protected will be care home resident, and the vaccinators will have to go to them.
topman wrote:Most surgeries near me are already swamped, very difficult to get an appointment. I'm not sure they'll do it much by themselves, particularly not in GP surgeries.
I suspect they'll set up mass inoculation centres, with all manner of people being trained up to give the jabs.
Yes, spot on. But it's just not the physical task of vaccinating but the admin behind it as well, which is incredibly unsexy but has to be done and is more time consuming. There are going to be direct appeals to people who have lost jobs in other sectors to take on these roles.

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