Coronavirus

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Caribbean
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:We are saying the same
Indeed we are - just adding some "vocal support". We don't seem to have a dedicated "eastern" conterfactual resource allocated to this website (I think we should all be a little offended at that), but they do pop up occasionally.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote:we should all be a little offended at that
That game is played mainly by 'marking a man'... once any such men (not being sexist, just no such observations from the opposite sex :) ) have been silenced, it is easier to start to turn the 'opinion tide'.
- sleeper agents first cultivate a call sign by neutral comment for years, and then that call sign is handed to a "weapons grade" operator. Any such operate across many websites/ fora so as not to become too easily recognisable

So to earn more brownie points for any such attention, let me comment on the month long WHO investigation: after they were late 'off the blocks' it is now 14 months :crazy: since the
outbreak.

Do I know more than the WHO? Certainly not
Do I recognise an inconsistent narrative when I see one; certainly
Obviously the commentary above is full of question marks... so is the story, but their keyboard does not seem to have that key in it
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

With unemployment at 5% and a backing up reservoir of 3.6 million on furlough, there is a good case for continued relief.

But pandemic relief is the same as stimulus and with the never-ending stimulus there is huge liquidity building up (just look at the investment markets; what bored people do with their money... fun&games). The eEconomist is writing this
"Headline statistics on price rises will soon contribute to the sense that an inflationary dawn is breaking. They will go up automatically as the collapse in commodities prices early in the pandemic falls out of comparisons with a year earlier [prices]"
in 'search of an exit strategy' for financial policies
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

December was rife with headlines of Nightingale hospitals being readied, but the reality of ICU nurses (and I am sure doctors too, but stats are less readily available as they hop between wards/ locations more) already doing11 hr shifts then set in.

Many are being repurposed (testing, vaccinations, step-down facilities for those non-covid patients who are past the most intensive time of whatever treatment was required). Or as the BMJ article has it, from a month back
"Daniele Bryden, vice dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine, told The BMJ that using the Nightingale hospitals for non-covid elective pathways “makes sense.” She said that this was a logical approach given the importance of keeping covid and non-covid patients separate, which has reduced the flexibility of hospitals and the number of available beds.

“We have been saying right from the beginning of the pandemic that there are a finite number of intensive care beds,” she said. “Even though on paper the beds have been expanded and surge capacity identified, there are no more staff in terms of nurses and doctors."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The actual report from WHO's China mission due next week, but no doubt the head of the organisation will extend 'thanks' for so much of the work having been done 'for them' as in:

"The team had requested raw patient data on 174 cases that China had identified from the early phase of the outbreak in the city of Wuhan in December 2019, as well as other cases, but were only provided with a summary, said Dominic Dwyer, an Australian infectious diseases expert who is a member of the team.

Such raw data is known as “line listings”, he said, and would typically be anonymised but contain details such as what questions were asked of individual patients, their responses and how their responses were analysed.

“That’s standard practice for an outbreak investigation,” he told Reuters on Saturday "
who then included the above into a wider news report
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SW1 »

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ssion=true

According to Prof Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at Edinburgh University who sits on the government’s SPI-M committee, the chance of a super-spreader event among the crowds that turned up from Bournemouth to Southend was minimal in theory – and nonexistent in practice.

“Over the summer we were treated to all this on the television news, pictures of crowded beaches, and there was an outcry about this,” he told MPs. “There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”

We have known for some time that only about 10% of transmission events are linked to outdoor activities,” said Dr Müge Çevik, a lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St Andrews.
“Even those events generally involve either prolonged close contact or a mixture of indoor and outdoor time. We had a lot of existing knowledge even when the pandemic began about respiratory viruses and how they transmit in general, and everything directs us to the conditions in people’s homes and workplaces.”

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

It is not as easy as 1,2,3... for COVAX to get traction. WHO has been put in charge, but the 'report' on 123 is still outstanding (and that is not the scoring; as per the AP news agency):

"WHO waved its first big warning flag on Jan. 30, 2020, by calling the outbreak an international health emergency. But many countries ignored or overlooked the warning.

Only when WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared a “pandemic” six weeks later, on March 11, 2020, did most governments take action, experts said. By then, it was too late, and the virus had reached every continent except Antarctica.

A year later, WHO still appears hamstrung. A WHO-led team that traveled to China in January to investigate the origins of COVID-19 was criticized for failing to dismiss China’s fringe theory that the virus might be spread via tainted frozen seafood.

That came after WHO repeatedly lauded China last year..."

The story continues...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Ok , factories (or critical supplies) are where they are
... but can someone explain why this
"Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is safe, as the row intensified over a number of European countries pausing their use of it."
should be a problem?

We'll just have all of them
... and send the rest to the, err, not Third World, but emerging/ deserving countries?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

As for the above, has someone taken a short cut with our vaccines
... so we can't actually send 'any extras' back?

A rhetorical question.

More to the point (of the first couple of pages of this thread), there was talk about closing harbours
- not much heard about that since ;)

Yuval Harari makes a good point about how the wheels of the world trade have been kept turning, in a FT free-to-read article:

"In 1582, the English merchant fleet had a total carrying capacity of 68,000 tons and required about 16,000 sailors. The container ship OOCL Hong Kong, christened in 2017, can carry some 200,000 tons while requiring a crew of only 22."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SKB »

"GET OUT OF MY PUB!"

(The Telegraph) 19th April 2021
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has been told to leave a pub in Bath by its landlord while on a walkabout in the city.

The landlord shouted "that man is not allowed in my pub" and "get out of my pub" as Sir Keir, wearing a black face mask, walked out of the door, with the incident captured on camera by reporters.

It comes just days after a YouGov poll put Labour 14 percentage points behind the Tories - the biggest gap since this time last year.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The Test&Trace disgrace, the slaughtering of Public Health England (to help deflect responsibility from where it should land), the success of the vaccination campaign, the NHS becoming a political focal point even more than before, the nurses pay settlement and an ever-increasing consolidation of decision making closer to Downing St - err, a parallel to the Treasury losing their advisers - has seen the Head of NHS announce that he will be leaving at the end of July.

So what next? The Covid Inquiry, of course. The one that has been pushed and pushed... NOT TO begin before the May election.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SKB »

Prime Minister confirms next stage of lockdown easing

(Sky News) 10th May 2021
The Prime Minister has said the country will proceed to step three of his roadmap for lifting restrictions from Monday, 17 May.

TheLoneRanger
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Brussels backs down over AstraZeneca vaccine row

Post by TheLoneRanger »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ccine-row/

( more things not going to plan for the EU Politburo .. ).

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This
Singaporeans who are 'unvaccinated by choice' can no longer receive free COVID-19 treatment
Tue, 9 Nov 2021 12:34
Business Insider newsletter@insider.com

should be applied universally
... no more 'ethics' rows. Everyone decide for themselves (except if they happen to be health care professionals... have they ever heard of 'duty of care'?)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SW1 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:This
Singaporeans who are 'unvaccinated by choice' can no longer receive free COVID-19 treatment
Tue, 9 Nov 2021 12:34
Business Insider newsletter@insider.com

should be applied universally
... no more 'ethics' rows. Everyone decide for themselves (except if they happen to be health care professionals... have they ever heard of 'duty of care'?)
A dangerous and slippery slope to go down.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Seeking a better balance between individual freedom and very large negative externalities? And the latter is not just forking out bns for ICU care (but also denying other folks of getting treated for the more 'normal' illnesses and ailments).

As Joseph Stiglitz puts it (and he starts with "another" pet hate of mine)
"And social-media platforms, insulated from liability for what they transmit, have made a business model of maximizing “user engagement” by spreading misinformation, including about COVID-19 and the vaccines.
But a key part of the answer is a deep misinterpretation, especially among the right, of individual liberty. Those who refuse to wear masks or socially distance often argue that requirements to do so infringe on their freedom. But one person’s freedom is another person’s “unfreedom.” If their refusal to wear a mask or get vaccinated results in others getting COVID-19, their behavior is denying others the more fundamental right to life itself.
The essence of the matter is that there are large externalities: In a pandemic, one person’s actions affect the well-being of others. And whenever there are such externalities, the well-being of society requires collective action: regulations to restrict socially harmful behavior and to promote socially beneficial behavior."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

BTW, if anyone has the wherewithal to go back to the start of this film reel (the early comments on the thread), it was clear from the beginning that the broader (than public health) policy response was bound to bring inflation back 'to life'
- now the only question is, will that be transitory or prolonged
- a 1% interest rate rise could bankrupt not just many households... but the whole state!
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SW1 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Seeking a better balance between individual freedom and very large negative externalities? And the latter is not just forking out bns for ICU care (but also denying other folks of getting treated for the more 'normal' illnesses and ailments).

As Joseph Stiglitz puts it (and he starts with "another" pet hate of mine)
"And social-media platforms, insulated from liability for what they transmit, have made a business model of maximizing “user engagement” by spreading misinformation, including about COVID-19 and the vaccines.
But a key part of the answer is a deep misinterpretation, especially among the right, of individual liberty. Those who refuse to wear masks or socially distance often argue that requirements to do so infringe on their freedom. But one person’s freedom is another person’s “unfreedom.” If their refusal to wear a mask or get vaccinated results in others getting COVID-19, their behavior is denying others the more fundamental right to life itself.
The essence of the matter is that there are large externalities: In a pandemic, one person’s actions affect the well-being of others. And whenever there are such externalities, the well-being of society requires collective action: regulations to restrict socially harmful behavior and to promote socially beneficial behavior."
Every persons actions can place additional burden on the health care system or anything else. Is the person who smokes cigarettes to now be denied treatment for lung disease if they don’t stop? After all their choice to smoke can have negative effects on others health and use precious health care resource to care for them. A speeding motorist refused care if he crashes. There is many other respiratory virus in circulation one of which TB kills nearly 2 million people a year but largely not in the western world anymore so we simple ignore it should they be vilified too if they’ve haven’t taken the BCG?

Everybody has a choice of what they put in there bodies it’s why consent is required before undergoing any medical procedure. A personal right to choose is by its very definition freedom. Some will never want to get a vaccine it is there choice, perhaps if the tone of the conversation stopped trying to vilify those that are reluctant and instead educated and talked to the individuals concerned more will end up taking it, because it generally ends up being people are fearful as the real reason why they don’t want it. But it seems everything is now just about shouty, soapbox extremes now to get noticed.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

SW1 wrote:Some will never want to get a vaccine it is there choice, perhaps if the tone of the conversation stopped trying to vilify those that are reluctant and instead educated and talked to the individuals concerned more will end up taking it
Pretty much the words on R4 news today, from a 'head honcho' or at least close to being one in the NHS Providers
- of course he was talking about how Trustees are approaching people who are employed within the NHS (and I believe the focus is on those who are 'customer' facing)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

If difficult choices are not made upfront, more painful ones are likely to follow:
"Austria is days away from placing millions of people not fully vaccinated against Covid on lockdown, as daily infections are at a record high and intensive-care units are increasingly strained, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said on Thursday.

Around 65% of Austria's population is fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, national statistics show. Austria has the lowest vaccination rate of any Western European country apart from tiny Liechtenstein, according to European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control data.

Many Austrians are sceptical about vaccinations..."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Beth
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Beth »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:But one person’s freedom is another person’s “unfreedom.” If their refusal to wear a mask or get vaccinated results in others getting COVID-19, their behavior is denying others the more fundamental right to life itself.
The essence of the matter is that there are large externalities: In a pandemic, one person’s actions affect the well-being of others.
I couldn’t agree with this more. Most definitely controversial, but I agree with the dismissal of NHS and care staff who haven’t been vaccinated (and don’t have underlying health issues) - people in a health setting in particular have a duty of care to their patients, patients who can’t just miss appointments or leave their care homes etc. People not wearing masks is bad enough.

To put it into perspective a bit, as The Armchair Soldier once posted, I have blood cancer and so vaccine 1 and 2 didn’t work for me. I had no antibodies. Therefore I isolated myself, was too scared to leave the house, and when I did I often had panic attacks - even when wearing an FFP3 mask. Thankfully vaccine 3 gave me
some antibodies which is miraculous as research suggests blood cancer patients don’t typically get antibodies until 6 months after chemo. Even with antibodies though, I have the same fear of those who don’t wear masks and those who aren’t vaccinated. While I understand the vaccine doesn’t stop the spread, it makes it less likely.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Post-decision (alluded to upthrread andfeatured at length on today's SkyNews) the Austrian Chancellor gave this rationale (having started with the gvmnts' first and foremost responsibility that often gets repeated on these pages):

"Mr Schallenberg stressed that while the seven-day infection rate for vaccinated people has been falling in recent days, for the unvaccinated numbers are rising.

"The rate for the unvaccinated is at over 1,700, while for the vaccinated it is at 383," he said."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Coronavirus

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

"We" got there... in the end:

Republicans celebrate ‘told-you-so’ moment as US government endorses ‘lab leak’ theory

US Department of Energy found Covid-19 ‘lab leak’ scenario most likely based on new intelligence, leading it to change its original findings
By Nick Allen 28 February 2023 • 8:31pm in the Torygraph

On the same note ;) , the early pages of this thread point to the Covid response starting the inflation broth boiling well before Mr. Putin threw a good helping of Carolina Reapers into it.
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SW1
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

SW1
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by SW1 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote: 01 Mar 2023, 06:51 "We" got there... in the end:

Republicans celebrate ‘told-you-so’ moment as US government endorses ‘lab leak’ theory

US Department of Energy found Covid-19 ‘lab leak’ scenario most likely based on new intelligence, leading it to change its original findings
By Nick Allen 28 February 2023 • 8:31pm in the Torygraph

On the same note ;) , the early pages of this thread point to the Covid response starting the inflation broth boiling well before Mr. Putin threw a good helping of Carolina Reapers into it.
Who would have thought the complete destruction of the supply side of the economy and then significant QE to boast the demand side would lead to inflation crazy stuff that……

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