'Liberated' Libya

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

No worries, Erdogan will ship his new AS-400 batteries for the other side :crazy:
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:No worries, Erdogan will ship his new AS-400 batteries for the other side :crazy:
I hope you meant S-400s. AS-400s were pretty decent computers in their day, but don't have much to offer in the Surface-to-air arena. Better at marine applications, like a boat anchor :D
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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Why don't the Russians speak English? - Airdefence launched from Surface :D ... AS, clear as vodka
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Phil Sayers
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

The Russians may well opportunistically look to set up an S-400 battery or two in Eastern Libya. That would be a serious challenge to NATO's southern flank but hard to see how it could be countered. With that and their SAM batteries in Latakia, Syria they would have SAM coverage of much of the Eastern med (not to mention Italy), upwards of 50 fast jets in the region and a substantial naval presence.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

In this case the interesting bit is that Turkey's s-400s would be opposing the Russian jets
- as for coverage of the E. Med there are also S-300s on Crete... operated by a NATO country, Greece
- that's a long story, would need to be filled in under the heading "Cyprus" (don't think we have one, yet)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

In Libya's case, Greece aligns itself with Russia/France. An interesting faction.

Today, Turkish backed GNA captured Qasr bin Gasr which was the last point left for Haftar to pound Mitiga airfield.

GNA is mainly supported by Qatar and Turkey, Italy has somewhat loose support. And I believe Germany has hopes that Turkey disrupts EastMed deal via Libya but still get sanctioned for its possible oil, meanwhile Germany will enjoy NordStream.

I can see some patterns which resembles pre-1914, when two great haters had to come together for geopolitical reasons. And using Islam as a political tool is perfect in MidEast if you know how to use it. Like Wilhelm, and later Lawrence did. (In fact Lawrence had big roles in forming Wahhabi ideology, i.e. headchoppers)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Yes "Libya's case, Greece aligns itself with Russia/France. An interesting faction." And no - Russians being Greek Orthodox.

It really is a play across the E. Med.
- Greece+Cyprus+Israel (adjoining waters, also adjoining with Turkey)
- Turkey+GNA
Only from there it gets interesting. As you said Italy is loosely in that last camp, too. While working closely with Egypt.

How does Russia come in (exc. with Syria)? They are in Libya as Egypt's proxy, to stop the Muslim Brotherhood (was started in Egypt, yonks ago)... not for the oil (Haftar should be self-financing with Libya's oil, so that only mercenaries and hardware needs to be sent)
- Turkey is really overstretching itself (with its closeness to Muslim Brotherhood) and drawing imaginary lines across swathes of the sea

France? You tell me what they are up to. Long tradition of playing dirty: the Congo, Rwanda...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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MammaLiTurchi wrote:In fact Lawrence had big roles in forming Wahhabi ideology, i.e. headchoppers)
If you mean T.E. Lawrence, then I find that an odd assertion (unless of course, you mean unintentionally, in that, in the end, the Salafist House of Saud has profited hugely from the aftermath of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire). It's true that Lawrence did favour the Sunni factions in the Arab Revolt, but that was simply because they were disposed to collabourate with the Allies to oust the Turks, whereas the Shia factions looked more towards Persia. Nothing to do with religion. He ended up giving his support to the Hashimite Emir Faisal (later Faisal I of Iraq) who tried hard to bring about reconciliation between the great sects of Islam (one of the reasons why Lawrence backed him, despite the fact that Faisal was unreliable).

Wahhabism was well established by the end of the 18th Century and I've don't think there's any real evidence of a particularly spiritual side to Lawrence (though I confess that I read Seven Pillars as a boy and may have missed any spiritual significance in his writings). He certainly admired the Arabs and wanted to bring about a pan-Arab Kingdom (how different might the world be if that had happened), but the French blew that out of the water when they took Damascus from Faisal. Lawrence was certainly a political animal, but I've never seen him as particularly religious. I really can't see Lawrence (as a nominal Christian) making ANY contribution to Wahhabist ideology, in any real sense whatsoever.
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MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Of course, I didnt mean he laid the foundations of religious side or something, but leaving bedouins alone with little to no religious (in fact, Islamic) authority would mean extremist ideas to surface immediately after. After Mahmut II, some Arabs even declared Khan to be infidel, since he adopted modern codes in social life.

I mean, middle east needed a modern, but definitely Islamic authority to reform masses. If a Successor (or Caliph, if you like) had done these reforms without disruption, probably middle east would not be like it is today. Extremists took place, then socialism, then dictatorships, but religious core of middle east left as it is.

Whatever, it is a long discussion but ideologically, Britain and France could not have filled the vacuum created after the collapse of last legal Caliphate (Pope-ish figure of Islamic world) and they couldnt. In fact, they didnt care.

As for Muslim Brotherhood, as I told before, Muslim Brotherhood is an Egyptian movement. But Erdogan supported them since MB didnt now where else to go when they took power in Egypt. Erdogan even told them not to be biased against secular governance (both supposed to be Islamist, it was ironic/iconic) but literally they had no idea how a country is governed. After that it stuck with Turkey organizing MB. It is not the full picture.

As I said, Islamic rhetoric in policy is a good tool if you know how to use it, and what Turkey does is that. Not like Germany which tries to "europeanize" Islamic migrants by opening mosques with female imams with no headscarf. I mean, even in churches there are no female priestess leading the choir let alone being head uncovered.

In Libya, the concern was never MB or Islamism. Al Sarraj has Turkish roots, just like 200.000 ish Ottoman era Turkish migrants settled in Libya. Turkey has deep connections in Tripolitania. Thats why. If they were secular Turkey would still be on that side.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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Tripoli International Airport has just been retaken by the GNA. Barring a massive uptick in the support he is receiving (or possibly an extensive bombing campaign using his new jets albeit they are mainly MiG 29s) Haftar's ambitions of taking the capital are well and truly over.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

LNA retreating very fast and GNA recovering with almost same speed. Tarhuna is under GNA control and Bani Walid is next.

There is no strong natural or urban stronghold further south. This means Haftar lost entire western Libya within two weeks.

The next move of Turkish military advisors (i.e. commanders of GNA forces, practically) is probably Sirte and Jufra.

If these two targets also fall, which I think may cause intervention of Egypt or Russian PMCs, GNA will have upper hand both in terms of economy (oil wells) and military (the eastern Libya will be open plains)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Sorry, what are these " or Russian PMCs"?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Phil Sayers
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

Sorry to answer for him but I assume he means Wagner private military contractors - aka the plague spreading around the world that is essentially just an arm of the Russian state:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/ ... 46940.html

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

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Intervention by Egypt, as hinted above, is not a foregone conclusion. Namely the Tripoli-based GNA (or Sarraj, as what he has signed was not taken to the parliament) ignored the agreement signed between the leaders of Egypt, Greece and Cyprus on the exploration of gas in the maritime economic zones on 10 October 2018 at the Trilateral Summit in Elounda, Crete.
- the point being that these countries actually have maritime borders with each other
- whereas Turkey and Libya don't. And what they agreed cuts straight across what had already been 'sorted'... like what Russia and Norway did in the Barents Sea (just in time, before Crimea kicked off)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

What I want to know is what France's current position is? They were backing Haftar on the stated ground of 'pragmatism' because it looked like Haftar was destined to win. It now looks like Haftar cannot win (barring Egyptian divisions crossing the border which is unlikely but not impossible) so are they still backing Haftar? Particularly given the LNA are now hosting a substantial Russian presence including warplanes that the US is far from happy about.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

RE " essentially just an arm of the Russian state." and when they start losing the state steps in. US Africom satellite pictures only identify Mig29s, but "Turkey's Sabah newspaper reported that eight Russian MiG-29 and Su-24 [Ground attack] warplanes had flown from Syria to Libya to help the LNA. That report quoted GNA Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha."
- so the Migs are there likely to fly top cover for the mud movers
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by Phil Sayers »

That and to shoot down Turkish drones which, as with the interlinked Idlib situation, are seeming to be highly effective.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Yes. Will it be a turkey shoot, or escalate into something else?

Or with the credible threat in-situ, will those drones just stop flying?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Sorry, what are these " or Russian PMCs"?
Phil Sayers wrote:Sorry to answer for him but I assume he means Wagner private military contractors - aka the plague spreading around the world that is essentially just an arm of the Russian state:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/ ... 46940.html
Yeah
Phil Sayers wrote:That and to shoot down Turkish drones which, as with the interlinked Idlib situation, are seeming to be highly effective.
Russians try to further increase the stress on Idlib for Turks, but they are reluctant to act aggressively since both sides realized friction between them won't help either sides economies and internal politics.

What really causes nightmare for Turks is UAE and their clandestine operation HTS, former Al-Qaeda branch of Syria. This particular organization had ties with CIA, going deep into Taliban days, and definitely has some connections with Gulf States. UAE hates Turkey even more than Russians and they try to meddle everything Turkey might benefit. In Syria they support and direct HTS which is by far one of the most extremist group in Syria and in Libya they support LNA or Haftar who is appearently "more secular" but in fact they see no troubles including Salafi fighters in their ranks.

Russians and especially Europeans think&portray Turkey and HTS to be "working together" but in fact Turkey never wanted them, but both sides opted to "pass by" each other till now since Turkey does not want extra refugees anymore. Especially the HTS supporters.

Last time this "peaceful" friction turned into a hot contact, which is resolved by Turkish intelligence MİT.

Europeans and Russians together with UAE continuously claim Turkey to be aligned with ISIS and HTS but if your neighbor is Afghanistan, then you had to prepare not to become Pakistan (a saying used by MidEast diplomats)

As for Turkish drones, there are two main types, Baykar TB2, which is relatively cheap and does not bear any strategic parts in it, and Anka-S, which is Turkish equivalent of Predator UAV. LNA managed to hit a single Anka-S but had no time to investigate it. And probably Turkey did not send any more Anka-S as TB2s are pretty much doing the job.

Turkey wants maritime borders and deals with Libya, a buffer territory in Syria. Less Russian power projection in Syria and Libya. US may eventually see Turkish demands as a small fee given for brake action against Russians.

"I look for what Russian ambassador says, and I do exactly opposite. That's how I run foreign affairs."

-Grand Vizier Ali Paşa in 19th century.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Turkey wants maritime borders and deals with Libya
... yes, but they can't have a border deal, as any such would be cutting across what was agreed in 2018 by nations having their EEZs in-between (see a couple of posts up, on this thread)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Turkey wants maritime borders and deals with Libya
... yes, but they can't have a border deal, as any such would be cutting across what was agreed in 2018 by nations having their EEZs in-between (see a couple of posts up, on this thread)
Turkey was not a participant in that. Greeks claim an island can block mainland's EEZ. Because of that, a small Greek island with 30.000 inhabitants literally is only justification for Greek claims encompasses large swathes of sea territory. Turkey has millions of people on that coastline.

If you draw a line between Libyan coasts and Turkish coasts, except Greek island's claimed shelves, no mainland shelf cuts through those lines.

Islands can have EEZs of course, but with some sane demarcations with main coastlines. Also Greeks leave zero EEZ for Turkish mainland in Aegean.

Greece already violates Lausanne Agreement which requires Greece to demilitarize its near Turkey islands. Despite that, they have an entire army faction in those islands. This was by far more than enough for Turkey to take military action, but never happened due to big masters.

Greeks made first non-sense claims and Turkey gave the answer. De facto Turkish Navy denies the area.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

As for "Islands can have EEZs of course, but with some sane demarcations with main coastlines"
Libya and Malta subjected themselves to the ICJ with a special agreement between them, and therefore towards the West things are settled (The 1985 Libya-Malta Continental Shelf case).

Crete is not exactly an island state (does it matter?) but Cyprus certainly is (and also a EU member)
- has Turkey sought an ICJ solution - based on UNCLOS?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:As for "Islands can have EEZs of course, but with some sane demarcations with main coastlines"
Libya and Malta subjected themselves to the ICJ with a special agreement between them, and therefore towards the West things are settled (The 1985 Libya-Malta Continental Shelf case).

Crete is not exactly an island state (does it matter?) but Cyprus certainly is (and also a EU member)
- has Turkey sought an ICJ solution - based on UNCLOS?
Turkey is at stage of "gunboat diplomacy", not for war, but for enforcing Greeks to talk with Turkey. Until now Greece tried to talk everybody except Turkey (i.e. Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, Libya's Haftar, Italy and France) to enforce their own claims with international military alliances. They also know their claims are far-fetched, and they fear their far-most islands will be threatened and (in-fact, TuAF exactly does that with overflights) can be targeted. Instead of doing this small power shows, the two countries should have resolved their FIR,EEZ and continental shelf issues. I believe Greece and Turkey can be allies once these are solved. But as far as I can see through Greek media, negotiation with Turkey means giving up their "sovereignty" over areas which they neither control nor have a justification to be Greek. (Same applies for Turkey also)

The last Libyan-Turkish deal rang the alarm bells in Greece. Haftar came to Greece, they declared their support to somebody who they dont have any idea about but only know of his anti-Turkish attitude.

On top of that, now Haftar lost his Tripoli campaign, which further complicates situation for Greece.

In 2004, through mediation of Annan and UK, Cyprus Peace Plan was voted for in Turkish side despite it required many cessions for Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Greek side refused it. Now same anti-dialogue process happens all over again.

Greece should not forget next door is 85 million with 4-fold economy of its size and many unemployed Greeks look for jobs there. Potential between these two countries is huge yet it is completely being wasted due to these non sense frictions.

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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

in-fact, TuAF exactly does that with overflights - how naughty!
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

MammaLiTurchi
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Re: 'Liberated' Libya

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:in-fact, TuAF exactly does that with overflights - how naughty!
Well yes, it sounds naughty but those islands are at swimmable distances and if you dont maneuver after 10 seconds you takeoff from for example Çiğli AB, here you have overflown.

Greeks militarizing those islands is not less naughty I believe.

It is a national historical humiliation and tragedy in Turkish minds how those islands are lost to Greece. A single Greek battleship, travels islands one by one, bombs shit out of Turkish posts and deports Turkish islanders.

Now tables turned after 100 years..

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