Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
- Zero Gravitas
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Johnson / Cummings haven’t moved with the speed I would have advocated (or I bet McDonnell would have if he had gained power).
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme (other cliches are available).
The drivers are not dissimilar to the 1930s, but the result won’t be identical. Doubt Fascism will prevail. For a start no one in the UK is advocating it.
If we take the wiki definition (broken down into numbered list for ease):
Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterised by:
1 dictatorial power,
2 forcible suppression of opposition,
3 as well as strong regimentation of society
4 and of the economy
1 No. Yes the Johnson admin has tested some norms and institutions with criticism of the independent judiciary being most obvious but that’s hardly dictatorial, and it is notable that some cons have criticised even this.
2 Obviously not.
3 This is happening in the form of woke, cancel culture and people being scared to speak out in their professional roles for fear of repercussions, but the driver is left wing politics not right wing.
4 Nope.
Trump would probably be up for all the above but the US institutions have held reasonably firm against his worse instincts.
In a great cultural reckoning all actors are punished. For a start, the revolution always eats its children. Leaders of the French Revolution weren’t sufficiently revolutionary and got “the chop”, the instigators of Bolshevism in Russia were bored aristocrats who were ultimately “first against the wall”. The Kuomintang haven’t done so well.. We could go on.
The interesting thing is it does feel like there could actually be something like a revolution in the west... I guess as ever it won’t be obvious until it’s upon us and then it will be inevitable.
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme (other cliches are available).
The drivers are not dissimilar to the 1930s, but the result won’t be identical. Doubt Fascism will prevail. For a start no one in the UK is advocating it.
If we take the wiki definition (broken down into numbered list for ease):
Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterised by:
1 dictatorial power,
2 forcible suppression of opposition,
3 as well as strong regimentation of society
4 and of the economy
1 No. Yes the Johnson admin has tested some norms and institutions with criticism of the independent judiciary being most obvious but that’s hardly dictatorial, and it is notable that some cons have criticised even this.
2 Obviously not.
3 This is happening in the form of woke, cancel culture and people being scared to speak out in their professional roles for fear of repercussions, but the driver is left wing politics not right wing.
4 Nope.
Trump would probably be up for all the above but the US institutions have held reasonably firm against his worse instincts.
In a great cultural reckoning all actors are punished. For a start, the revolution always eats its children. Leaders of the French Revolution weren’t sufficiently revolutionary and got “the chop”, the instigators of Bolshevism in Russia were bored aristocrats who were ultimately “first against the wall”. The Kuomintang haven’t done so well.. We could go on.
The interesting thing is it does feel like there could actually be something like a revolution in the west... I guess as ever it won’t be obvious until it’s upon us and then it will be inevitable.
- ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
I hadn't had the 2nd mug of coffee yet, so I left out half of the thought. Namely, that amongst bigger players in the intl field there are worrying signs*) of some tilting more and more in that directionArmChairCivvy wrote:In good times economy follows culture. In bad times "are we there yet? " the marching order reverses (what gave rise to Fascism...
... we are not quite keeping up with the Joneses, but nevertheless the observable effort and tendency to centralisation of power (whilst also dismantling checks and balances; this is the obligatory Trump comparison) is quite worrying.
But picking from the wide menu that was offered, I think this one suits the occasion best:
-------Zero Gravitas wrote:the revolution always eats its children.
*) not that anyone needs reminding, but from tomorrow Putin to 2036(?),
China set to establish new security agency in Hong Kong in blow to autonomy • 6 days ago
IRGC seen using ‘Orwellian’ tactics to silence devastating social media criticism • 6 days ago
while China flies bombers into Taiwan airspace and at the same time rattles sabres with a nucler-armed Hindu-nationalistic neighbour; All bit players omitted...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
- whitelancer
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
I've always wondered why Fascists are described as far right and Communists are described as far left! As far as I can see whatever, if any theoretical differences between them, in practice they are all but indistinguishable.Zero Gravitas wrote:Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterised by:
1 dictatorial power,
2 forcible suppression of opposition,
3 as well as strong regimentation of society
4 and of the economy
- ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
... all you need to do is to insert Corporatism, the practice of organizing society into “corporations” subordinate to the state (in theory), or in practice, rather reflecting the will of a country’s dictator, so in combination withwhitelancer wrote: I've always wondered why Fascists are described as far right and Communists are described as far left! As far as I can see whatever, if any theoretical differences between them, in practice
we get pretty much the same thing 'out of the mixer'.whitelancer wrote:authoritarian ultranationalism
- Mussolini took baby steps (at least the Italians wrote the thing down)
- then National err Socialists implemented it "properly"
... so by that time the competing forms of totalitarian ideologies (black and red) were only a 'whisker apart'
Anyone want to add perceptions of Russia and China; whereto they are headed on the scale?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
I find this quite ominous:
Cummings to drop in on Britain's most secret defence installations
London: Boris Johnson's controversial adviser Dominic Cummings will tour some of Britain's most highly classified national security sites as part of his plan to radically shake up the military amid a major turf war in Westminster over how Britain will defend itself in the future.
https://amp.smh.com.au/world/europe/cum ... ssion=true
Edit: Title & first paragraph added.
Cummings to drop in on Britain's most secret defence installations
London: Boris Johnson's controversial adviser Dominic Cummings will tour some of Britain's most highly classified national security sites as part of his plan to radically shake up the military amid a major turf war in Westminster over how Britain will defend itself in the future.
https://amp.smh.com.au/world/europe/cum ... ssion=true
Edit: Title & first paragraph added.
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Who’s actually in charge of the UK?
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Got to wonder about the judgment of a man who thinks that driving 60 miles is a suitable method for an eye test.
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Can't see how he could do much worse that what the current system has been doing for the past 30 yearsmr.fred wrote:Got to wonder about the judgment of a man who thinks that driving 60 miles is a suitable method for an eye test.
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
There’s always a way to make it worse.dmereifield wrote: Can't see how he could do much worse that what the current system has been doing for the past 30 years
- Zero Gravitas
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Quoting from TD:
“ FFLAV, MRAV, TRACER and FRES promised much but in the end delivered nothing but large invoices and ‘lessons learned’ reports. Meanwhile, the legacy fleet of vehicles, hand built by blokes in brown coats, have soldiered on through multiple conflicts whilst the British Army tried to decide what actually constituted a medium weight force and what form replacement vehicles would take (given those vehicles would serve in both medium weight and heavier forces)
Whilst indecision became the norm, those same vehicles are still being used by soldiers whose grandfathers may well have used them.
Writing in the RUSI Journal in 2010, Peter Flach said;
According to some respected commentators, this brings the total expenditure on FFLAV, TRACER and MRAV to something in the region of £650m, a remarkable sum when you consider that we do not have a single vehicle to show for it. Of course the real cost has been left in the field.
This was in 2010 and does not include FRES. Suffice it to say, whatever the final figure was, it is a lot.
Surely failure on such scale has consequences?
The House of Commons Defence Select Committee thought as much a few years ago:
Mr Bacon: It is on page 6, paragraph 4: “The list of armoured vehicles projects cancelled, suspended or delayed in Figure 1 suggests that…the Department’s standard acquisition process for armoured vehicles has not been working.”
Ursula Brennan: We have acknowledged that there were failings in our procurement of armoured fighting vehicles. Yes, we do acknowledge this.
Q24 Mr Bacon: Who has paid the price for that? Who has paid the penalty for that scale of error? Because for most of this decade—although we have had an enormous financial crunch since 2008 or late 2007—it was a period of rising Government spending. It is a huge failure. Who is paying the penalty for that? Is anyone?
Ursula Brennan: The reasons—
Q25 Mr Bacon: Apart from the soldiers on the ground, obviously, who has paid the penalty for this failure in the Ministry of Defence?
Ursula Brennan: The reasons—
Q26 Mr Bacon: No, no, my question is who? The answer must be a person or no person.
Ursula Brennan: The reason why I wanted to say the reasons is because the reasons why certain programmes were stopped or cancelled were to do with decisions that were taken, in some cases about the procurement routes, between Ministers and officials at the time about the way it was chosen to procure—
Q27 Mr Bacon: You are answering a question that is not the question I asked. You are giving me an explanation of how we reached this position through decisions having been taken. Plainly, some decisions must have been taken for us to end up in a particular position. There must have been bad decisions for us to end up in a particularly bad position such as this one. My question is who has paid the penalty for this in the Ministry of Defence? It’s a simple question. Who?
Ursula Brennan: I can’t point the finger at one person, because there isn’t one person who was responsible for the different sets of decisions that were taken about individual vehicles.
Mr Bacon: Is there anybody who has paid the penalty for this?
Vice-Admiral Lambert: If I can—
Mr Bacon: No, no, no. I am looking at Ms Brennan. I am asking her a question. She is the accounting officer. She is the permanent secretary. My question stands; I’ve asked it three or four times now. It is very simple and very clear. Is there anybody in the Ministry of Defence who has paid a penalty for this?
Ursula Brennan: No. I don’t think I can point the finger at anybody.“
“ FFLAV, MRAV, TRACER and FRES promised much but in the end delivered nothing but large invoices and ‘lessons learned’ reports. Meanwhile, the legacy fleet of vehicles, hand built by blokes in brown coats, have soldiered on through multiple conflicts whilst the British Army tried to decide what actually constituted a medium weight force and what form replacement vehicles would take (given those vehicles would serve in both medium weight and heavier forces)
Whilst indecision became the norm, those same vehicles are still being used by soldiers whose grandfathers may well have used them.
Writing in the RUSI Journal in 2010, Peter Flach said;
According to some respected commentators, this brings the total expenditure on FFLAV, TRACER and MRAV to something in the region of £650m, a remarkable sum when you consider that we do not have a single vehicle to show for it. Of course the real cost has been left in the field.
This was in 2010 and does not include FRES. Suffice it to say, whatever the final figure was, it is a lot.
Surely failure on such scale has consequences?
The House of Commons Defence Select Committee thought as much a few years ago:
Mr Bacon: It is on page 6, paragraph 4: “The list of armoured vehicles projects cancelled, suspended or delayed in Figure 1 suggests that…the Department’s standard acquisition process for armoured vehicles has not been working.”
Ursula Brennan: We have acknowledged that there were failings in our procurement of armoured fighting vehicles. Yes, we do acknowledge this.
Q24 Mr Bacon: Who has paid the price for that? Who has paid the penalty for that scale of error? Because for most of this decade—although we have had an enormous financial crunch since 2008 or late 2007—it was a period of rising Government spending. It is a huge failure. Who is paying the penalty for that? Is anyone?
Ursula Brennan: The reasons—
Q25 Mr Bacon: Apart from the soldiers on the ground, obviously, who has paid the penalty for this failure in the Ministry of Defence?
Ursula Brennan: The reasons—
Q26 Mr Bacon: No, no, my question is who? The answer must be a person or no person.
Ursula Brennan: The reason why I wanted to say the reasons is because the reasons why certain programmes were stopped or cancelled were to do with decisions that were taken, in some cases about the procurement routes, between Ministers and officials at the time about the way it was chosen to procure—
Q27 Mr Bacon: You are answering a question that is not the question I asked. You are giving me an explanation of how we reached this position through decisions having been taken. Plainly, some decisions must have been taken for us to end up in a particular position. There must have been bad decisions for us to end up in a particularly bad position such as this one. My question is who has paid the penalty for this in the Ministry of Defence? It’s a simple question. Who?
Ursula Brennan: I can’t point the finger at one person, because there isn’t one person who was responsible for the different sets of decisions that were taken about individual vehicles.
Mr Bacon: Is there anybody who has paid the penalty for this?
Vice-Admiral Lambert: If I can—
Mr Bacon: No, no, no. I am looking at Ms Brennan. I am asking her a question. She is the accounting officer. She is the permanent secretary. My question stands; I’ve asked it three or four times now. It is very simple and very clear. Is there anybody in the Ministry of Defence who has paid a penalty for this?
Ursula Brennan: No. I don’t think I can point the finger at anybody.“
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
The current process isn't working. Let's wait and see what Cummings proposes before the make judgement on itmr.fred wrote:There’s always a way to make it worse.dmereifield wrote: Can't see how he could do much worse that what the current system has been doing for the past 30 years
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
(I know you really shouldn't quote yourself)topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
It didn't take long to find himself out on the wrong side and gone.
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Hard to know what happened, but from what's been written so far it seems that he didn't find himself on the wrong side, but put himself there....all seems rather odd since he was apparently planning on standing down at the end of the year anyway. I can only assume he wanted to shape No. 10 in his image before he left, but it looks like that didn't quite go to plantopman wrote:(I know you really shouldn't quote yourself)topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
It didn't take long to find himself out on the wrong side and gone.
- ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
IQ, EQ, add a some egocentrism... and the broth is ready to boil over.dmereifield wrote:didn't find himself on the wrong side, but put himself there
This (presumably Tory) MP's comment had gained quite a circulation:
"They’re children. Ideologues and self-obsessed fools". Who knew
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
He seems an ideal subject for “The Press” then, as he likes to travel and is keen for his eyesight to be up to scratch!
- Zero Gravitas
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Be interesting to see why Cummings says he has gone, but Topman seems to be more right than wrong at the moment.Zero Gravitas wrote:Cummings seems to have outlived 3 perm secs and the Cabinet secretary so far....topman wrote:I think you know what i mean. People in politics in such positions can find themselves on the outside quite quickly. It doesn't take much. We shall see.Zero Gravitas wrote:Sure. So don’t be an advisor. Legislate to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”.topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
- ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
This might still happen, with The Javid being the recipientZero Gravitas wrote: Legislate to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”.
... as per the Torygraph as far as persons involved (the Cabinet Sec had a new job, too, in that 'idle speculation' - which I also like to do)
And Javid already has his old advisors in N:o 10
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
I wonder what effect this may have on the IR as he was suppose to have an integral part in it?
- Tempest414
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
My view is Biden's win meant his hard Brixt stand fell out of his ass and he has done a runner before No 10 cave into the EU deal as a US one will be put on the back burnerdmereifield wrote:Hard to know what happened, but from what's been written so far it seems that he didn't find himself on the wrong side, but put himself there....all seems rather odd since he was apparently planning on standing down at the end of the year anyway. I can only assume he wanted to shape No. 10 in his image before he left, but it looks like that didn't quite go to plantopman wrote:(I know you really shouldn't quote yourself)topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
It didn't take long to find himself out on the wrong side and gone.
Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
I don't claim any great insight into the corridors of power. He just looked a square peg in a round hole, he'd annoyed too many people before he'd even started. It seemed fairly clear to me all the talk of tearing down structures we're simply that, talk.Zero Gravitas wrote:Be interesting to see why Cummings says he has gone, but Topman seems to be more right than wrong at the moment.Zero Gravitas wrote:Cummings seems to have outlived 3 perm secs and the Cabinet secretary so far....topman wrote:I think you know what i mean. People in politics in such positions can find themselves on the outside quite quickly. It doesn't take much. We shall see.Zero Gravitas wrote:Sure. So don’t be an advisor. Legislate to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”.topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
All the big departments simply make all the right noises and outwait him, they aren't daft. They aren't called the blob for nothing.
Did he honestly think he's the first person to go into government and think they were singlehandedly bring about massive change?
Plus the Con back bench MPs were after a bit of revenge.
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Oh dear, if you're expecting anything other than a hard brexit at the end of the year you're mistaken. Biden's win is immaterial, and Boris doesn't have the political space to cave in to the EUs demands. That doesn't mean that the UK won't make some compromises on LPF, state aid and fisheries (as the EU will compromise, also) so what would you define as "cave in to the EU deal".Tempest414 wrote:My view is Biden's win meant his hard Brixt stand fell out of his ass and he has done a runner before No 10 cave into the EU deal as a US one will be put on the back burnerdmereifield wrote:Hard to know what happened, but from what's been written so far it seems that he didn't find himself on the wrong side, but put himself there....all seems rather odd since he was apparently planning on standing down at the end of the year anyway. I can only assume he wanted to shape No. 10 in his image before he left, but it looks like that didn't quite go to plantopman wrote:(I know you really shouldn't quote yourself)topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
It didn't take long to find himself out on the wrong side and gone.
A US FTA was always on the backburner, irrespective of who was president, given the difficulties it entails
- ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Lord Frost, allegedly, threatened to do the same. Him staying onTempest414 wrote:done a runner before No 10 cave into the EU deal as a US one will be put on the back burner
That's called a negotiation; it is only a matter of which side does more of compromising.dmereifield wrote: doesn't mean that the UK won't make some compromises on LPF, state aid and fisheries (as the EU will compromise, also)
This is not what we have heard from many Brexiteers over these years... but as I have said, the most ardent ones are starting to disappear from sight (or are finding new crusades so as not to be forgotten altogether)dmereifield wrote:A US FTA was always on the backburner
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
1) No, according to sources close to Frost he didnt threaten to do the same. Apparently, Cummings briefed that he was considering it, and Frost was unhappy that he did becuase it makes the negotiation more difficult for him.ArmChairCivvy wrote:Lord Frost, allegedly, threatened to do the same. Him staying onTempest414 wrote:done a runner before No 10 cave into the EU deal as a US one will be put on the back burnerThat's called a negotiation; it is only a matter of which side does more of compromising.dmereifield wrote: doesn't mean that the UK won't make some compromises on LPF, state aid and fisheries (as the EU will compromise, also)
This is not what we have heard from many Brexiteers over these years... but as I have said, the most ardent ones are starting to disappear from sight (or are finding new crusades so as not to be forgotten altogether)dmereifield wrote:A US FTA was always on the backburner
2) indeed, the degree of compromise is important, and where tue end point lands is key here. So let's see where things end up and then we can make our judgements on it.
3) not really. It's true that an FTA with the US is more likely to happen, and easier to negotiate, on a bilateral basis rather than through the EU (a broader principle that applies to all FTAs), but that doesn't make it 1) easy, or 2) necessarily desirable (pending the red lines of the US).
- ArmChairCivvy
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
I believe your point 1 is the right interpretation
- I did not know what to make of what was being circulated (and hence did not believe that version outright)
- I did not know what to make of what was being circulated (and hence did not believe that version outright)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service
Indeed, in the flurry of unnamed briefings over the past week or so it's not quite clear what's gone (is going?) on. This point is one of the few that I do tend to believe. I think there is zero chance of Frost going prior to the end of negotiations unless he is forced by Boris to make concessions that breach his (and the UK's) stated red lines