Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

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Zero Gravitas
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Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Zero Gravitas »

Currently master of all he surveys. Here are some of his thoughts - and comments from others he quotes - on defense:

"A very, very small quadcopter, one inch in diameter can carry a one- or two-gram shaped charge. You can order them from a drone manufacturer in China. You can program the code to say: “Here are thousands of photographs of the kinds of things I want to target.” A one-gram shaped charge can punch a hole in nine millimeters of steel, so presumably you can also punch a hole in someone’s head. You can fit about three million of those in a semi-tractor-trailer. You can drive up I-95 with three trucks and have 10 million weapons attacking New York City. They don’t have to be very effective, only 5 or 10% of them have to find the target.

‘There will be manufacturers producing millions of these weapons that people will be able to buy just like you can buy guns now, except millions of guns don’t matter unless you have a million soldiers. You need only three guys to write the program and launch them. So you can just imagine that in many parts of the world humans will be hunted. They will be cowering underground in shelters and devising techniques so that they don’t get detected. This is the ever-present cloud of lethal autonomous weapons… There are really no technological breakthroughs that are required. Every one of the component technologies is available in some form commercially… It’s really a matter of just how much resources are invested in it."

---

"I wrote in 2004 about the farce of the UK aircraft carrier procurement story (and many others have warned similarly). Regardless of elections, the farce has continued to squander billions of pounds, enriching some of the worst corporate looters and corrupting public life via the revolving door of officials/lobbyists. Scrutiny by our MPs has been contemptible. They have built platforms that already cannot be sent to a serious war against a serious enemy. A teenager will be able to deploy a drone from their smartphone to sink one of these multi-billion dollar platforms. Such a teenager could already take out the stage of a Downing Street photo op with a little imagination and initiative, as I wrote about years ago"

---

"Further, the systems for coping with nuclear crises have failed repeatedly. They are extremely vulnerable to false alarms, malicious attacks or even freaks like, famously, a bear (yes, a bear) triggering false alarms. We have repeatedly escaped accidental nuclear war because of flukes such as odd individuals not passing on ‘launch’ warnings or simply refusing to act. The US National Security Adviser has sat at the end of his bed looking at his sleeping wife ‘knowing’ she won’t wake up while pondering his advice to the President on a counterattack that will destroy half the world, only to be told minutes later the launch warning was the product of a catastrophic error. These problems have not been dealt with. We don’t know how bad this problem is: many details are classified and many incidents are totally unreported."

---

"MPs constantly repeat the absurd SW1 mantra that ‘there’s no money’ while handing out a quarter of a TRILLION pounds every year on procurement and contracting. I engaged with this many times in the Department for Education 2010-14. The Whitehall procurement system is embedded in the dominant framework of EU law (the EU law is bad but UK officials have made it worse). It is complex, slow and wasteful. It hugely favours large established companies with powerful political connections — true corporate looters. The likes of Carillion and lawyers love it because they gain from the complexity, delays, and waste. It is horrific for SMEs to navigate and few can afford even to try to participate. The officials in charge of multi-billion processes are mostly mediocre, often appalling. In the MoD corruption adds to the problems."

---

"Long-term leadership from the likes of O’Donnell and Heywood is why officials know that practically nobody is ever held accountable regardless of the scale of failure. Being in charge of massive screwups is no barrier to promotion. Operational excellence is no requirement for promotion. You will often see the official in charge of some debacle walking to the tube at 4pm (‘compressed hours’ old boy) while the debacle is live on TV (I know because I saw this regularly in the DfE). The senior civil service now operates like a protected caste to preserve its power and privileges regardless of who the ignorant plebs vote for."

---

Change is coming...

topman
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by topman »

I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.

dmereifield
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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by dmereifield »

I doubt Cummings is going anywhere unless he wishes too, he's been on the money and delivered for Boris every step of the way so far (Brexit Ref, Boris' leadership campaign, WA renegotiation, parliamentary positioning and party management in the run up to the GE, GE win)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

dmereifield wrote:going anywhere unless he wishes to
Is him (on the record) wishing to go ASAP another smoke screen; for the opposite to happen when the smoke clears?
- an honest question, btw
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by dmereifield »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
dmereifield wrote:going anywhere unless he wishes to
Is him (on the record) wishing to go ASAP another smoke screen; for the opposite to happen when the smoke clears?
- an honest question, btw
Not read anything about him wishing to leave his position. I think he had to put off an operation to join Boris' team to renegotiate and fight the election, so I imagine he will take some time off to have that done.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

OK, so it is more like the ""I came through and I shall return" line, shortened by Arnie to "I'll be back"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by SW1 »

I think a change is coming but perhaps not entirely in the way that the above post may indicate. I think they may use funds from defence and other government departments to invest in ideas and infrastructure to put in place the conditions to reinvigorate areas of the midlands and further north that traditionally have been manufacturing areas for defence. It’s people with ideas and drive to transform areas that will determine success or failure not governments.

We may see that with new army vehicles, perhaps a big push fwd with tempest and type 31 but for defence I think it’s fallen even further down the tree, it’s seen quite clear a 2% budget cannot buy everything in the plan at present and it will not rise enough to avoid quite significant fundamental changes as large as sdsr2010, but hopefully in a more organised way rather than the hurried and scatter gun approach then. There will be more focus on the “terrorist” threat and its counter home and abroad, coupled with a focus on NATOs counter to Russia.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Zero Gravitas »

I think Cummings will have huge room to manoeuvre for the first few years at least - for the reasons Dmerifield sets out.

Most Tory leaders don’t really try revolutionary change because it’s all a bit difficult and involves upsetting people... many of whom you went to “school” or oxford with dontcha know.

Boris is clearly different. The one thing we know about him is he doesn’t care about upsetting people.

He’s also already ditched the leaders of the ‘wet’ end of the party and in doing so is better reflecting the views of the membership of the Tory party and the electorate. In a way he’s already won his hardest battle - the internal one. Something no Tory PM has done since the war?

I think it’s reasonable to assume that the next five years will be as ambitious and revolutionary as Thatcher.

I saw a trite point on twitter that nevertheless contains some truth I think. It ran something like: We’ve had plenty of Tory governments giving us some version of austerity as they cleaned up the mess left behind by labour [or Lawson I might add], this will be the first one in generations that both doesn’t inherit too much of an economic mess and has a usable majority. What will they do?

Suspect they also see themselves as players in a culture war, and Cummings holds a grudge, so also think that they might go after the BBC.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Zero Gravitas »

topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
Sure. So don’t be an advisor. Legislate to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by topman »

Zero Gravitas wrote:
topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
Sure. So don’t be an advisor. Legislate to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”.
I think you know what i mean. People in politics in such positions can find themselves on the outside quite quickly. It doesn't take much. We shall see.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

That could be another Trump-ist import - not necessarily :shifty: as bad as the others
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by SW1 »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -2gsdzs9v5

Boris Johnson’s most senior aide is to overhaul the way the Ministry of Defence spends billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money in a move expected to alarm military chiefs and mandarins.

Dominic Cummings, regarded as a key architect of the prime minister’s election victory, will tackle military procurement as a priority for next year, allies have said

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Zero Gravitas »

SW1 wrote:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -2gsdzs9v5

Boris Johnson’s most senior aide is to overhaul the way the Ministry of Defence spends billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money in a move expected to alarm military chiefs and mandarins.

Dominic Cummings, regarded as a key architect of the prime minister’s election victory, will tackle military procurement as a priority for next year, allies have said
Ha. That Times article mentions Cummings’ views on drone swarms, procurement, the carriers and oversight by MPs!

All from the same blog post that I quoted.

Perhaps one of us is moonlighting? :wave:

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote: Perhaps one of us is moonlighting?
Could be... which one :angel: ?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Zero Gravitas »

:think:

In the event that this isn’t just a coincidence and there are journos amongst us we should probably welcome that fact even if they do want to remain anonymous.

If we knew who they were we’d probably just moan at them about their coverage or their paper’s coverage.





Crumbs, who else is reading? Dominic if you’re out there well done! :) The whole election was fought on prepared ground and, as in judo, you used your opponents superior strength against them. Very clever.

(NB - I don’t actually think Dominic is reading this)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote:In the event that this isn’t just a coincidence and there are journos amongst us we should probably welcome that fact even if they do want to remain anonymous.

If we knew who they were we’d probably just moan at them
Agreed, and there are some (I do know exactly who they are; but you are right... and a new "star" :D ).

There is a thread about it (that I started), but really what could be better than the views "on here" being radiated onto a wider "readership"?

- of course, as those who [of the journos that] are here know, I will be a bit 'tougher' than with the most. as
1. there is a huge library that they can fall back on, which most of us do not have access to, and
2. if "they" play the Devil's Advocate, for the next "story" to proof it, rather than just have the internal proof readers... then I'll just double up. Which is so much Good Fun :D
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by inch »

Well Dominic Cummings might not like the carriers and want to scrap them but think the Americans especially the USMC might kick up a right stink after all there investment and help to the royal navy ,also the Americans want our carriers to take the pressure off theirs so not sure Cummings will get his way on mothballing one or scrapping them

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by dmereifield »

The carriers are safe

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Lord Jim »

Well if he can speed up MoD procurement and also bring the Treasury into line by making them accept multi year funding for major programmes it would be a move in the right direction. But it also has to be combined with a proper foreign policy and threat driven SDSR next year. Any decision taken have to be based on these two areas not simply political balancing act. And the buck will stop at the PM if things go wrong and something happens and the troops are not available in the numbers needed, properly equipped and trained, no one else. For example we have a target of being able to deploy a Division of four Brigades. Fine then lets have just that, four fully manned and properly equipped Brigades, with old and obsolete equipment replaced and set a target for 2025 for the programmes to be completed.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by RetroSicotte »

The true surprise was if the answer is that we're actually all just a forum of MPs and don't know it.

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Can we have a policy making forum, threads as in
- one for proc
- one for policy (er, SDSR)
- and one for 'second guessing all the service chiefs'
... pls :angel:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Lord Jim »

Can we get paid then? :D

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by Zero Gravitas »

topman wrote:
Zero Gravitas wrote:
topman wrote:I wouldn't be too sure, it doesn't take much for an advisor to find himself out in the cold.
Sure. So don’t be an advisor. Legislate to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”.
I think you know what i mean. People in politics in such positions can find themselves on the outside quite quickly. It doesn't take much. We shall see.
Cummings seems to have outlived 3 perm secs and the Cabinet secretary so far....

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote: Legislate (but first brief against the incumbent, to prepare the ground as if there was a rolling artillery barrage, to prepare for the attack?*) to move all the powers of the cabinet secretary and more to yourself as an all powerful “chief of staff”
to "the president". Logically Gove will also have to go - he is useful to have around, should Brexit 'blow up' and a scapegoat be needed, but far too dangerous as the 'heir apparent' within that inner circle. What they are up to, at any given time, even the rest of the Cabinet do not know.
- the two act in ways as if those positions did exist, actively undermining not just the civil service (implementation) but also the legislature (scrutiny, through holding the purse strings) and the courts (independent arbitration, so that conflicts do not come to a wider deadlock).

What have we heard about this fundamental, integrated review so far, BTW, other than rearranging the furniture (deck chairs?) in Whitehall?

------------
* added to the quote and clearly demarcated from the original words by using italics
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Re: Dominic Cummings on Defense, procurement, MoD and the civil service

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote: has a usable majority. What will they do?

Suspect they also see themselves as players in a culture war, and Cummings holds a grudge, so also think that they might go after the BBC.
A quote from December, with one fact and two deciphered intentions (I have the same readings).

But there is too much economic mess getting in the way of that agenda (he-heh: something will have to give). There must be alarm bells ringing already: for the first time since when (?!) the leader of opposition has passed the PM in the normal poll question as for who would be the 'fittist' for the post of PM.
- I don't think those who were asked had a push-up competition in mind :)

But talking about culture wars specifically, one should be wary of the urge to indiscriminately cancel people
- why do rabbits dig holes? Because they can?

In good times economy follows culture. In bad times "are we there yet? :)" the marching order reverses (what gave rise to Fascism could be the exam question here) and, after a little bit of lead time, in a great cultural reckoning bad actors will be severely punished.
- much has changed in the last half year; how long the lead time from here will be... is open for bets
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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