UK Defence Forum

Zero Gravitas wrote:But for now, you are a minority.

Yes, certainly true in terms of representation in parliament, but not necessarily true in terms of the UK population.

Tory Vote share at 43.7% is absolutely identical to the Labour and Lib Dem vote combined.

Yet the Tories have 364 seats, 151 more than Labour (202) and Lib Dems (11) Combined.

What might be worth reflecting on is the deep division that still exists in spite of the emphatic GE result. Indeed it is possible that Remainers might be in the majority which is why this might not feel very democratic to half the population. I suppose this is why super majorities should be required when huge constitutional change is a possible end result.

Election Night highlights (or lowlights if you're a Labour voter)


I'm happy that the Tories have achieved a Corbyn-neutral UK by the end of 2019.

SKB wrote:I'm happy that the Tories have achieved a Corbyn-neutral UK by the end of 2019.

Yeeep, if nothing else, that's a worthwhile achievement...

SKB wrote:I'm happy that the Tories have achieved a Corbyn-neutral UK by the end of 2019.

Not quite true, he's going to try to cling on long enough to ensure a moment candidate is his replacement...he won't be gone until sometime in 2020

zanahoria wrote:

Zero Gravitas wrote:But for now, you are a minority.

Yes, certainly true in terms of representation in parliament, but not necessarily true in terms of the UK population.

Tory Vote share at 43.7% is absolutely identical to the Labour and Lib Dem vote combined.

Yet the Tories have 364 seats, 151 more than Labour (202) and Lib Dems (11) Combined.

What might be worth reflecting on is the deep division that still exists in spite of the emphatic GE result. Indeed it is possible that Remainers might be in the majority which is why this might not feel very democratic to half the population. I suppose this is why super majorities should be required when huge constitutional change is a possible end result.

Fair point. Of course in reality some remainers will have voted for conservatives and some brexiteers will certainly have voted labour.

Agree with need for supermajority. Would have advocated in favour of that pre Brexit and pre Scottish independence ref but suspect that That horse has bolted and it’s too late now to establish a new norm - unless we wait a generation for the next referendum.

If I were a ‘moderate’ labour MP I would vote in the commons for a new leader of the parliamentary Labour Party. Yvette Cooper please.

Leader of the Labour Party proper would remain Corbyn but that is irrelevant really it’s Parliament (and to a lesser extent the Councillors up and down the country) that matter. Corbyn would effectively become a minor MP. Rebrand as “Forward Labour” or something and invite all the Labour members and Cllrs who are more interested in supporting the poor and destitute than they are in establishing communism to join you.

Strike at the moment of momentum’s weakness. Civil war yes, but that is inevitable anyway isn’t it?

Caribbean wrote: the negotiations around that will make Brexit look like child's play.

and that will allow time for the construction of our very own wall (or may be refurb Hadrian's?)

The Momentum movement needs to be wiped out....

Full Results (All 650 Seats)

Conservative: 365 Seats. (Gains 58, Losses 10, Net +48)
Labour: 202 Seats. (Gains 1, Losses 61, Net -60)
SNP: 48 Seats, (Gains 14, Losses 1, Net +13)
Liberal Democrats: 11 Seats (Gains 3, Losses 4, Net -1)
DUP: 8 Seats (Gains 0, Losses 2, Net -2)
Sinn Fein: 7 Seats (Gains 1, Losses 1, Net +/-0)
Plaid Cymru: 4 Seats (Gains 0, Losses 0, Net +/-0)
SDLP: 2 Seats (Gains 2, Losses 0, Net +2)
Green: 1 Seat (Gains 0, Losses 0, Net +/-0)
Alliance: 1 Seat (Gains 1, Losses 0, Net +1)
Speaker: 1 Seat (Gains 0, Losses 0, Net +/-0)

But for all on here does anybody think Boris will ask treasury to boost even more defence spending in the upcoming budget or do you think we have had it on that score with everything else he going to have to spend on ?

inch wrote:But for all on here does anybody think Boris will ask treasury to boost even more defence spending in the upcoming budget or do you think we have had it on that score with everything else he going to have to spend on ?

Tl;dr - don't worry about Money worry about Dominic Cummings and read the link I post below:

My guess would be that the funding envelope will remain largely the same. 0.5% increases above inflation for the foreseeable future (say 3 years!).

The new Boris flavoured Conservative electoral coalition (More northern, more midlands) cares more about defense than the liberal, 'high Tory' (Shires) one (I might argue) and will therefore prioritise it more.

I don't think that any likely form of Brexit will have anywhere near as bad an impact on public spending as many others believe. Ignoring the Brexit projections (which often have pretty spurious levels of accuracy - 0.3% less GDP growth each year for a decade adds up to a hefty reduction in projected living standards / wealth per household in 2029 - but as a rule of thumb, any GDP prediction that starts with a zero is within the margin of error!).

Also, the simple fact is that the UK can now borrow extremely cheaply. It's a political choice to keep the deficit below 2% of GDP now (this is far different from 2009 when the deficit was 9% to 11% of GDP and drastic action of some sort was clearly required).

What I would say is that IF, Cummings is given a similar role post-election to the one that he has had to date for BJ, and IF his writings are a reliable guide to his thinking (here is his blog - https://dominiccummings.com/) then he will rip Whitehall - and therefore the MoD - apart (e.g. at a guess - all permanent secretaries abolished in year one, senior civil service massively dis-empowered - a revolution in the way we are governed not seen in anyone's lifetime etc).

If I am right in this then we might expect a similar revolution in what the state views the armed forces as being for as all preceding barriers to change are defenestrated....

Actually I should shut up and ask what people who know more about defense than I do think abut this post:

https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/ ... gi-safety/

???

I we will see a modest increase in defense spending, probably not enough for the likes of most of us on here. However, I think Boris will want to make a success of UK shipbuilding, given his prior comments. So we may see the FSS order increased to 3 and certainly built kn the UK. We may also see an increase in the numbers of T31 ordered and additional funding for flagship programmes such as Tempest. All speculative ofcourse, but I think he'll be more supporting of defence than his predecessors

Zero Gravitas wrote:0.5% increases above inflation for the foreseeable future (say 3 years!).

About there, but let's remember that the hump we (the EP, and therefore the whole defence budget) will have to get over is the SSBN replacement... curiously more parties than ever fell in line with this, in their manifestos... and only a half bn of the 10 has been used up. The contingency is there, and the crowding out of other categories would ease.

Zero Gravitas wrote:in 2029 - but as a rule of thumb, any GDP prediction that starts with a zero is within the margin of error!

The margin of error for a snapshot (like a poll) is easier to estimate - I mean rigorously - than a net-net-net projection to ten years out

Zero Gravitas wrote:the simple fact is that the UK can now borrow extremely cheaply.

The operative word being now... this one is 50 years out. Of course, if the market will swallow instruments to lock the rate that far out; I have been asking around for a perpetual, interest-only mortgage, but so far no luck

Zero Gravitas wrote:senior civil service massively dis-empowered - a revolution in the way we are governed not seen in anyone's lifetime

Sounds like what we did to our schools: do away with the central bodies, let the acting management bring in their buddies as the 'board' to control mgt - and without a central body, you can't even fight back against funding cuts

Zero Gravitas wrote:all preceding barriers to change are defenestrated

I know the windows in White Hall tend to be big, but...?

Zero Gravitas wrote:Actually I should shut up

Absolutely not, as it would be v good for the forum to be looking at other factors than just 'kit'

dmereifield wrote:he FSS order increased to 3 and certainly built kn the UK. We may also see an increase in the numbers of T31 ordered and additional funding for flagship programmes such as Tempest.

Agree with the ship-building emphasis; so we will be getting batches of T31s where the chase for the [very expensive] multi-function perfection will have been dropped, and it is mainly the fitting out that determines the specialism?
- weaponising the PM to bring Japan onboard with Tempest might be worth many times more than all the money so far committed

FOUR MONTHS LATER....

I've noticed that Channel 4 television have deleted all traces of their 2019 Alternative Election Night show from Youtube. Trying to hide reality and conceal history, Channel 4?!