2019 UK General Election

For discussions on politics and current events.

Who will win the 2019 UK General Election?

Conservatives
19
53%
Labour
0
No votes
Liberal Democrats
0
No votes
The Brexit Party
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
No majority winner, Hung Parliament.
17
47%
 
Total votes: 36

Caribbean
Senior Member
Posts: 2784
Joined: 09 Jan 2016, 19:08
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:"The debasement of our public discourse has been aggravated by the systematic and sustained spraying of untruths, often by foreign state actors – and not in the expectation that their lies will be believed. Success for them is everyone starting to doubt that anything is true: and 44% of remain voters and 51% of leave voters now consider politicians and the media to be habitual liars. We do yet know the full scale of the foreign penetration into our social media and politics, not least because the parliamentary intelligence committee report on Russian interference in the 2016 referendum has deliberately been withheld. But clearly, more than ever before, our politics is being infected and enmities inflamed by dark money and dirty tricks.
Sorry Gordon - it doesn't require the intervention (invention?) of an "outside enemy" to explain why politicians are so mistrusted by the UK electorate. The "debasement of the public discourse" has been as influenced to the antics and dishonesty of the entire body politic as by the activities of the many different trolls that have been active within the UK media (many home grown, but undoubtedly some of foreign origin - and not all citizens of our supposed enemies)
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

User avatar
SKB
Senior Member
Posts: 7931
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 18:35
England

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

Lib Dems and SNP lose ITV debate legal challenge in the High Court. :lol:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50463816

Caribbean
Senior Member
Posts: 2784
Joined: 09 Jan 2016, 19:08
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

The Telegraph (yes - just a tad partisan, I know) tried to do an analysis a few days ago of what the potential effects of tactical voting might be. Their conclusion: if done perfectly by both sides, remain would gain 55 seats and leave 53 - a net gain to remain of 2 seats. In the process, Labour would lose 9 seats , the Tories gain one and the Lib Dems 6 (IIRC), with the SNP and others picking up a few seats between them.

Not sure how that's affected by the BXP "standing down" in Tory seats - anyone seen any attempts at analysis?
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

bobp
Senior Member
Posts: 2684
Joined: 06 May 2015, 07:52
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by bobp »

SKB wrote:Lib Dems and SNP
Remoaner and moaner, if only they knew how much they annoy normal people. The judges were right in their opinion but I see they did not manage to silence them.

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

Those counting Tory chickens are getting ahead of themselves. There's a long way to go yet. The ceiling for the Tory vote has probably just been reached (ca. 45%). The question is, can Boris keep it there or will there be some level of attrition over the next 4 weeks. I suspect it will drift back down toward 40ish, and conversely the Labour vote will drift upwards towards 40%. How close will the numbers be? Within 6-7% I would think (ca. 35/36% for Labour vs 42/43% for Tories), resulting in a more modest majoirty of 40-60.

Risky territory for Boris now, his vote share can only go down, and Corbyn's up. Corbyn will do well in the debate tomorrow, against low expectations. In comparison, Boris will struggle given such expectations of him

Defiance
Donator
Posts: 870
Joined: 07 Oct 2015, 20:52
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Defiance »

bobp wrote:
SKB wrote:Lib Dems and SNP
Remoaner and moaner, if only they knew how much they annoy normal people. The judges were right in their opinion but I see they did not manage to silence them.
Thank God. At least we have different options rather than the morons in government and the buffoons sat opposite them.

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

the systematic and sustained spraying of untruths, often by foreign state actors – and not in the expectation that their lies will be believed. Success for them is
atrophy... there is no "truth" and if there is no truth, then any"policies" also hang in a weightless space... try to kick there, to induce any movement!
more than ever before, our politics is being infected and enmities inflamed by dark money and dirty tricks.
looks like it; the evidence to the contrary may - or may not - be released :?:
displacement of an outward looking patriotism by narrow, adversarial nationalisms which need – and invent – enemies
You would not kiss -anyone :?: - from the opposing camp; nor share a pint, to see where the 'actual argument' lies :lol:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Farage seems to be slipping badly from his plan "to be the kingmaker". The line that Johnson’s deal “is just not Brexit” has somewhat vanished from sight.
- somehow his party, with its many seats :wtf: will force Boris towards the hardest of Brexits and (therefore) not extending the transition period past the end of 2020.
- to be of any relevance, you would need a hung parliament, for starters. A necessary but not a sufficient condition for things to work out for Farage & Co.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

He got Boris to pledge to no extension of the transition period...that's about it

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

And should we (or Farage :) ) believe in that pledge?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
Pseudo
Senior Member
Posts: 1732
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 21:37
Tuvalu

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Farage seems to be slipping badly from his plan "to be the kingmaker". The line that Johnson’s deal “is just not Brexit” has somewhat vanished from sight.
- somehow his party, with its many seats :wtf: will force Boris towards the hardest of Brexits and (therefore) not extending the transition period past the end of 2020.
- to be of any relevance, you would need a hung parliament, for starters. A necessary but not a sufficient condition for things to work out for Farage & Co.
It was never a realistic plan in terms of Farage gaining enough seats to put him in that position. His only real leverage was in extracting concessions in return for delivering his voters back to the Conservatives. The problem is that if he didn't do that then it made it a lot less likely that that the Conservatives would be able win enough seats to form a stable government. SO ultimately Bozzymandias and Cummings could and did call his bluff. If he wants to see Brexit he has to deliver votes for the Conservatives, everything else is just bluster.
ArmChairCivvy wrote:And should we (or Farage :) ) believe in that pledge?
Not unless Bozzymandias has been lying dead in a ditch for the past three weeks.

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The promise of saving the NHS is on 'everyone's' lips, but the Guardian has come out with the numbers:

"NHS winter crisis fears grow after thousands of EU staff quit
by Michael Savage
Mass resignations after Brexit vote compound health staffing shortages

More than 10,000 EU nationals have left the NHS since the Brexit referendum, including almost 5,000 nurses. These new figures will add fuel to concerns about a wider staffing crisis.

So far this year more than 3,250 EU staff have left the NHS, according to data released under the Freedom of Information Act. The figures are from less than half England’s trusts and cover only 10 months, so the actual figure is likely to be higher."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
SKB
Senior Member
Posts: 7931
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 18:35
England

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

They are not EU nationals, as the EU is not a nation or a country.

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Why do you think the passport covers need reprinting after Brexit?
- Only the ones that have the EU "mention" will confer the rights that EU nationals have
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:Why do you think the passport covers need reprinting after Brexit?
- Only the ones that have the EU "mention" will confer the rights that EU nationals have
Are the figures net or gross?

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Que?
... perhaps embossed
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

More than 10,000 EU nationals have left the NHS since the Brexit referendum, including almost 5,000 nurses.
according to the Guardian.

So take the number, multiply by 10... and there's the answer:
an FT headline reads:

Boris Johnson promises 50,000 extra nurses for the NHS
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
SKB
Senior Member
Posts: 7931
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 18:35
England

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »


(Forces TV) 21 November 2019
The General Election is less than a month away. Before voters head to the polls on Thursday 12 December, we have been asking politicians key questions on defence. Forces News sat down with Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson to discuss defence issues ahead of the 2019 election.

(Forces TV) 21 November 2019
Forces News sat down with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to discuss defence issues ahead of the 2019 election.

(Forces TV) 21 November 2019
Forces News sat down with Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley to discuss defence issues ahead of the 2019 election.

Lord Jim
Senior Member
Posts: 7314
Joined: 10 Dec 2015, 02:15
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Lord Jim »

It shows how little defence is seen as am important issue, when the Defence Chiefs state that without extra funding serious cuts are going to be needed to balance the books, with option such as reducing the size of the Army to just over 60K personnel and putting one of the Carriers into extended readiness like has been done to one of the Albions. But I have only found one article in the mainstream press, in the Sunday Times and that was only a few paragraphs hidden away. So even if something as headline grabbing as the Carriers is brought up no one is interested! Doesn't look good going forward. The next SDSR should be interesting considering what else will be happening at the same time.

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Lord Jim wrote:even if something as headline grabbing as the Carriers
Trident seems to be the only defence question playing in the election: Labour has got behind it, but SNP won't get 'in bed' with them without Trident being ditched??
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Lord Jim
Senior Member
Posts: 7314
Joined: 10 Dec 2015, 02:15
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Lord Jim »

How about moving Trident to Gibraltar together with its protection force. I am sure the RM would be very up front in stopping incursion by Spanish vessels, sorting that issue out as well. :D

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

A nice and crisp summary from Sir Ivan Rogers, who in his lecture at Glasgow Uni said “the biggest crisis of Brexit to date” was “virtually inevitable” in late 2020.

“In practice, this prime minister is, for all his talk of getting Brexit done, now basically replicating the strategy errors of 2016 and 2017, which brought his predecessor down,” he said. “This is diplomatic amateurism dressed up domestically as boldness and decisiveness.”

While the UK could get a “quick and dirty” trade deal by the end of 2020, Rogers said it would exclude the UK services industry and give the EU leverage over fishing rights in British waters."

The Guardian piece provides the context around that (and what the man has been saying all along).
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16312
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

One could ask whether we would be having this election (as a sequel) had the 2016 referendum not been held. 'What-ifs' are not that useful, but it is a fact that only now the Canadian Privacy Commissioner has been able to pick up the baton from the UK Electoral Commission (which was blocked in its investigation)... half a month before "the sequel" will reveal its ending!

"The watchdog’s report said: “When the company [the part of the loosely connected group of companies that had been located to British Columbia, AIQ] used and disclosed the personal information of Vote Leave supporters to Facebook ... it went beyond the purposes for which Vote Leave had consent to use that information.”

And "contravened British Columbia and Canadian privacy laws.”

[...]
The report expressed similar concerns about lack of consent regarding some of the work AIQ had done on campaigns in the US for Strategic Communication Laboratories, the former name of the SCL Group, the parent company of the political consultancy Cambridge Analytica.

Facebook came under pressure last year after revealing that the personal information of up to 87 million users, mostly in the US, may have been improperly shared with Cambridge Analytica."
- from Reuters in Ottawa. Published on Tue 26 Nov 2019 21.34 GMT and picked up by The Guardian
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
SKB
Senior Member
Posts: 7931
Joined: 30 Apr 2015, 18:35
England

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

Latest YouGov poll is predicting that the Conservatives will win 359 seats and the election with a majority of 68 seats. ;)
(Total MPs: 650. 50%+1 (326) needed for majority)
Image
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... snp-43-ld-

dmereifield
Senior Member
Posts: 2762
Joined: 03 Aug 2016, 20:29
United Kingdom

Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

SKB wrote:Latest YouGov poll is predicting that the Conservatives will win the election with a majority of 68 seats. ;)
Image
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... snp-43-ld-
Seems optimistic, I don't think this has picked up the recent (last 2 days) uptick in support for Labour, which is narrowing the margin between Labour and the Tories. I'd suggest that the result will be more like a majority of about 20-40, but we're still two weeks out and theres plenty of time for things to move about

Post Reply