2019 UK General Election

For discussions on politics and current events.

Who will win the 2019 UK General Election?

Conservatives
19
53%
Labour
0
No votes
Liberal Democrats
0
No votes
The Brexit Party
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
No majority winner, Hung Parliament.
17
47%
 
Total votes: 36

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

This is just about right...

Defiance
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Defiance »

dmereifield wrote: Seems optimistic, I don't think this has picked up the recent (last 2 days) uptick in support for Labour, which is narrowing the margin between Labour and the Tories. I'd suggest that the result will be more like a majority of about 20-40, but we're still two weeks out and theres plenty of time for things to move about
That's the one thing I'll say about Corbyn, he does campaign well on the lead-up to the vote rather than the robots the Conservatives wheel out. Labour have kept Diane Abbot shut away so she doesn't drop any clangers, however the Conservative front bench act as though they're trying to make as much noise as possible.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Defiance wrote: Labour have kept Diane Abbot shut away so she doesn't drop any clangers, however the Conservative front bench act as though they're trying to make as much noise as possible.
- minus the one of theirs that always comes fitted with plenty to drop, and wears a double monocle for glasses
- seems that he, too :) , has been locked up
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Opening the taps/ flood gates for funding public services seems to be a common theme across the main parties: some will want to do that and curtail immigration; some will want to do the same, while wanting the see the tax base broadened and future growth (for the same aim) supported.
- no tax increases (over the short term) sounds equally 'not so' plausible in both cases

However, there are sectors where measurement is at least monthly (no need to go for the medium term, which is foggy, but then again long term has the disadvantage that we will all be dead... and I am talking about health care, no prizes :) )
- at the national level one in eight vacancies are unfilled
- does not take rocket science to understand why the ones you can see/ meet in surgeries and hospitals seem to be overworked: they will have worked an extra hour's worth, before even starting any overtime
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

inch
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by inch »

Looking like the signs there's going to be a hung parliament again ,great another few yrs of going nowhere on and on and on and on and on and on

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

inch wrote:great another few yrs
Looking at next year only , and the two most likely scenarios:

1. Boris wins a majority (or someone is willing to prop him up)
- negotiate a trade deal
- decide in June the latest whether to apply for an extension
- if not: a barebones deal for goods, and even worse for services
- after the £ 2.9 bn spent, spend the rest of the 100 bn to prop up industries that would otherwise immediately keel over
- take the growth hit, the ensuing hit to tax base and (UCL & IFS analyses suggest that) in no time at all the borrowing will have gone up by £ 220 bn ;) in total

2. Labour cobbles together an anti- or soft- Brexit coalition
- negotiates the "soft" whatever that might be... plenty of suggestions on these pages :)
- has to pledge a referendum ' soonish' to get the coalition in place, in the first place
- UCL again: takes a minimum of 22 weeks to execute the referendum, so for that to happen by the 12 of Dec NEXT YEAR, they would probably scrape something together by 1/7/20, call referendum with those "Heads of Terms" vs. Remain and ask EU for a longer stand-still than to just the end of the year, to finesse all terms (but by doing this, keeping to what has been agreed so far)

Adding " a party line" that there is a 50 bn plus bonus from following the latter course (or there-abouts), Boris would spend an extra 220 bn, but under the alternative direction there would be 270 bn to spend to end up in the same place, plus a much stronger tax base going forward (which is the aspect that will pay for defence over the 10 yrs as premised in the current EP... or not pay for it; handing over to the glass half-empty folks to finesse that one. Except that there would be only 25 ml of wine at the bottom of the glass designed to hold 18 cl :( )
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

R686
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by R686 »

inch wrote:Looking like the signs there's going to be a hung parliament again ,great another few yrs of going nowhere on and on and on and on and on and on
Interesting.... I read a couple of days ago that the Johnson government were headed for a comfortable majority, YouGov suggesting a 68 seat majority but that sounds over the top to me considering how polls have got it so wrong over the last few major elections in various countries

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The Express (website fro both of them) has a Boris interview where he borrows from, of all things, new Labour... the battle for the middle must have commenced?
" I also think they can be a force for good.

“Navies around the world with UK frigates will be able to deter pirates, tackle people who smuggle migrants and stop terrorism.” The review will mean a shake-up in Whitehall and examine how Britain strengthens and prioritises alliances, linking defence, foreign policy and security. "
- but not aid

- we will still be too good... for our own good
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

inch
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by inch »

Can't yo see the Tory lead for a majority is slipping away as the days go by r686 ,think latest polls are reading only 6 points ahead now but with 12 days to go ,also a trump visit and maybe a couple of Boris interviews to go should just about destroy that lead to a hung parliament

Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

Things are definitely getting tighter. The latest "scorecard" for the various polling organisations is here:

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/

The list gives the latest poll by each organisation and the dates over which it was conducted.

The YouGov MRP poll is held in high regard, because it's a) one of the largest and b) the one that got it "most right" in the last election, predicting the hung Parliament ahead of others. Currently predicting a 68 seat Tory majority

Electoral Calculus does a poll average calculation that currently predicts a Tory majority of 34. You can use it to plug in your favoured poll results and predict the results based on those figures

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

inch wrote:Looking like the signs there's going to be a hung parliament again ,great another few yrs of going nowhere on and on and on and on and on and on
If the result is along the same lines as the last election then it'll mean one big thing has changed, namely that all the opposition MP's will have been elected on manifestos that either supports a confirmatory referendum or revocation of A50.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Yesterday's New Statesman writes off both (!) leaders of our main parties, but also includes a Xmas list at the end of their survey of points "for and against" the main campaigns:
" a more proportional voting system and even a written constitution. If the Union is to survive it must be reconfigured and new relationships established among the nations and regions of these islands. In a new era of great power blocs, Britain must have a “realist” foreign policy. It should combine a clear-eyed defence of the national interest with a desire to remain within the European sphere of influence, while also defending and renewing the multilateral, rules-based order. "
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

dmereifield
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

Pseudo wrote:
inch wrote:Looking like the signs there's going to be a hung parliament again ,great another few yrs of going nowhere on and on and on and on and on and on
If the result is along the same lines as the last election then it'll mean one big thing has changed, namely that all the opposition MP's will have been elected on manifestos that either supports a confirmatory referendum or revocation of A50.
In the last Parliament 85% of MPs, including the majority of opposition MPs, were elected on manifesto commitments to respect the referendum result, and deliver Brexit....but the remainers reneged on it...hence we need a new Parliament

There won't be a majoirty for the 2nd referendemers, Boris will get a majority

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Weell... may be; may be not. For one minute (or less :clap: ), let's assume so. And then?

'The Boris Deal' will get get Citizens- Financials- IRE (... eir) out of the way.
- Defence is not even mentioned in the Conservative Manifesto (though there is no doubt of mutual interests, even now when Trump went away, in a huff?).
- The Commission is not an expert in that area either (Ursula may make things likely better on that front?).

So back to our assuming: Jan -Feb all (BIG!) Brexit related bills that have been held up, will need to be taken through
- in Feb there will also be a flood of manifesto-related policy announcements. Well thought-thru, no doubt :)
- as the first-mentioned bills will need to be in place for the end of the year... to avert UTTER chaos...
- we will soon hit the July 1st deadline as whether to extend... heh-he: how much of the LEVEL PLAYING FIELD will have been agreed by then, so as to give us the free trade agreement like no other :?:

I would hope that the Gvmnt decision making (assisted by the Civil Service) will be well informed... in order to avoid a decade :shock: of growth foregone ; that's how it looking like from today's vantage point
- what will the options be, if the 'fabled' and oven-ready US Trade Deal does not come through?
- the 15 others that have text to them, rather than just declarations, and are not just straight replacements for the deals in place as of today, will augment UK growth prospects (er, actually patch up the growth foregone, by the direction chosen :cry: ) by 0.2 to 0.3 % of the GDP. Relative to the NEGATIVE that I quoted not too far upthread and as estimated (by the Gvmnt itself) that is a correction of 1/20th :roll:

So, please, try to sketch (even though I did not start with a straight quote) for us how the alternative/ opposite thinking process runs :!:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Zero Gravitas »

100 seat Tory majority on the way.

dmereifield
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

Zero Gravitas wrote:100 seat Tory majority on the way.
Nah, more like 20-40 I reckon

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Of 1... the way Boris started 'on the job'.

But rather than tossing coins... any insights for the future, when the election slogans (together with the confetti from the after-election party) will meet with the rubbish bins at the Conservative HQ, and the hard grind starts?
- still just 'assuming', or call it 'alternative futures' if that sounds better
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

dmereifield wrote:Nah, more like 20-40 I reckon
The two most recent (Comres and YouGov) are saying high 20s to low 30s (say 28-32) at the moment. BMG/ICM are still in "no overall control" territory (-8/-7 respectively), which is pretty much where they started, I think. Opinium are sticking with a 124 seat majority.

Still most of a week to go, and as they say "A week is a long time in politics"
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Zero Gravitas »

1992 Lab 34.4%; Con 41.9%. Majority: 21
1997 Lab 43.2%; Con 30.7%. Majority: 179
2001 Lab 40.7; Con 31.7%. Majority: 166
2005 Lab 35.2%; Con 32.4%. Majority: 67
2010 Lab 29.0%; Con 36.1%. Majority: n/a
2015 Lab 30.4%; Con 36.9%. Majority: 12
2017 Lab 40.0%; Con 42.4%. Majority: n/a

What can we conclude from that?

*of course it’s not just about the gap, but...
*results are far from linear -Labour landslide with an 11% point gap. Pretty thin majority for Cons with a 7% point gap.
*electoral system favours Labour - their vote falls more efficiently under FPTP.

Current polling gap around 9% points.

Polls would have to be pretty wrong (again) to get a majority as small as 20.

With brexiteers potentially voting Con for the first time Labours efficient vote will be greatly hindered this time (possibly).

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Anyone think that Boris is using this one to rehearse the answers... in front of a mirror and using 'pause' to bring in any good suggestions :) for answers, from the aides?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

As for the almost (by now) forgotten committee report "As far as the ISC is concerned, the report is ready to publish." about Russian influence and direct meddling, CNN sent "their man" to look into " accusations that Johnson had suppressed it".

This is what came out https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/20/medi ... index.html
- oddly it is classified under (media) business
- I guess it is meant as an explainer for American audience about how the platforms run for profit by American companies are being used elsewhere in the world
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

More 'reds, under the beds' stuff, quotes sourced by the BBC:
"The Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan said this all pointed towards foreign involvement: "I understand from what was being put on that website, those who seem to know about these things say that it seems to have all the hallmarks of some form of interference."
... it's a gvmnt doc, is it not :wtf:

"Labour's shadow transport secretary Andy McDonald reiterated his call for Mr Johnson to release an intelligence report into Russian covert actions in the UK, which No 10 has been accused of suppressing until after the election."
- and to all of this Boris responds with a lookalike quote from the Heart of Darkness:
" just another distraction from the void at the heart of Labour's policy on Brexit"
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

Isn't it strange how Diane Abbot has vanished off the face of the earth during a general election isn't it?! :mrgreen:

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

"The Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan said this all pointed towards foreign involvement: "I understand from what was being put on that website, those who seem to know about these things say that it seems to have all the hallmarks of some form of interference."
call for Mr Johnson to release an intelligence report into Russian covert actions in the UK, which No 10 has been accused of suppressing until after the election."
Just going by the bolded bits, I would say this comes down to something that was posted above a check-out in a US super-mkt:
"In God we trust; others cash, please"
- if there is a super-committee, the members of which are/ have been hand-picked by the PM, then I would rather hear fro them
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Brexit or NHS? The top issue in the election? Depends on whose messaging you are more exposed to. Rather than throwing around various quotes of bns "on promise" (ample sources currently available) the King's Fund has been updating the issues, and how the two might be intermingled, over the last three years, like
" the potential impact on the health and social care workforces that rely considerably on staff who are EU nationals;
the impact on future trading relationships, which could affect the affordability and supply of drugs and other products;
a weakening of cross-border co-operation on public health and research (buy your own EHIC policy must fall under this one :?: );
and, of course, the impact on the wider economy, the performance of which will affect future funding for health and social care."

More topical, Channel 4 News just dug deeper with its own investigation, revealing how cuts have left 65 out of 92 NHS Trusts with severe patient safety risk factors.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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