2019 UK General Election

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Who will win the 2019 UK General Election?

Conservatives
19
53%
Labour
0
No votes
Liberal Democrats
0
No votes
The Brexit Party
0
No votes
Other
0
No votes
No majority winner, Hung Parliament.
17
47%
 
Total votes: 36

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SKB
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2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

The UK is set to go to the polls on 12th December 2019 after MPs backed Boris Johnson's call for a General Election following months of Brexit deadlock.

By a margin of 438 votes to 20, the House of Commons approved legislation paving the way for the first December election since 1923.

The bill is still to be approved by the Lords but could become law by the end of the week. If that happens, there will be a five-week campaign up to polling day.


R686
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by R686 »

It’s going to be interesting to see if this runs along a single issue election or will it run along multiple issues.

Having read what BJ has done it has its points but basically there are still some problems with it as it’s just TM deal warmed over. Looking from afar I don’t think any good will come out of this election the remain vote will be split with those wanting a referendum to the LibDems support for revoking A50. I also think the leave vote will be split between a watered down May deal to no deal.

I think there will be a lot of confused voters out there trying to figure out which way to vote on either side of the divide, I predict another hung parliament.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Labour Civil War had truce quickly announced: Labour decided to halt all ‘trigger ballot’ processes for its MPs. All those who are not retiring or suspended will automatically be reselected as election candidates, ‘subject to NEC endorsement’
R686 wrote:split with those wanting a referendum to the LibDems support for revoking A50.
Can be the same thing? Revoke as one of the alternatives and the deal that is "on paper" rather than just on the table being the other... getting a referendum was the driving force (in my view) that unlocked the votes for GE

PS Thanks are due to SKB, being quick off the blocks and setting the thread up
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

For those who are interested in opinion polls, this site seems to do a good job of summarising them in one place (Mark Pack is a Lib Dem)
https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/

and this site gives a result modelling calculator, based on the high-level vote split (not sure about the political affiliations/ bias)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html for their prediction and
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html for the calculator (also attempts to model the results of tactical voting, if you want)
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The governing party holding impact assessments back is sure to become a hot potato in the campaigns. Whatever is said about giving due regard to Scotland's and NI's places in the Union (not going to take a stand on that) means that notionally also Wales is lost, though not as a nation, but numbers wise, according to new analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR):

"The agreement struck between the U.K. government and Brussels will leave gross domestic product 3.5 percent lower every year than if Britain remained an EU member. That amounts to a loss of £1,100 per person per year or £70 billion annually overall — roughly the size of the Welsh economy."
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

T-Force
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by T-Force »

polls have SNP winning 50 + seats

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

T-Force wrote:polls have SNP winning 50 + seats
I think that it's likely that the SNP will do very well, but it's far too far out to really start relying on polls. Heck, the current polls were all conducted before the election was even announced. It'll be a couple of weeks before the polls will begin to indicate the direction that things are going.

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:The governing party holding impact assessments back is sure to become a hot potato in the campaigns. Whatever is said about giving due regard to Scotland's and NI's places in the Union (not going to take a stand on that) means that notionally also Wales is lost, though not as a nation, but numbers wise, according to new analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR):

"The agreement struck between the U.K. government and Brussels will leave gross domestic product 3.5 percent lower every year than if Britain remained an EU member. That amounts to a loss of £1,100 per person per year or £70 billion annually overall — roughly the size of the Welsh economy."
I think that the whole withdrawal agreement has the potential to become a millstone around the Conservative's neck. They want a Brexit election which means that the withdrawal agreement that their manifesto will commit to passing will come under a lot of scrutiny, which it's very unlikely to stand up to. How will Bozzymandias' government pay for more police/nurses/fibre broadband etc. given that GDP growth will be lower after they've passed the withdrawal agreement?

I also expect that on the campaign trail Bozzymandias will often find himself being asked why he's there and not lying dead in a ditch like he promised he'd be.

dmereifield
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by dmereifield »

Pseudo wrote:
ArmChairCivvy wrote:The governing party holding impact assessments back is sure to become a hot potato in the campaigns. Whatever is said about giving due regard to Scotland's and NI's places in the Union (not going to take a stand on that) means that notionally also Wales is lost, though not as a nation, but numbers wise, according to new analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR):

"The agreement struck between the U.K. government and Brussels will leave gross domestic product 3.5 percent lower every year than if Britain remained an EU member. That amounts to a loss of £1,100 per person per year or £70 billion annually overall — roughly the size of the Welsh economy."
I think that the whole withdrawal agreement has the potential to become a millstone around the Conservative's neck. They want a Brexit election which means that the withdrawal agreement that their manifesto will commit to passing will come under a lot of scrutiny, which it's very unlikely to stand up to. How will Bozzymandias' government pay for more police/nurses/fibre broadband etc. given that GDP growth will be lower after they've passed the withdrawal agreement?

I also expect that on the campaign trail Bozzymandias will often find himself being asked why he's there and not lying dead in a ditch like he promised he'd be.
I think you are going to be disappointed

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

dmereifield wrote:I think you are going to be disappointed
There's only one way to find out.

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Zero Gravitas »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:notionally also Wales is lost, though not as a nation, but numbers wise, according to new analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR):

"The agreement struck between the U.K. government and Brussels will leave gross domestic product 3.5 percent lower every year than if Britain remained an EU member. That amounts to a loss of £1,100 per person per year or £70 billion annually overall — roughly the size of the Welsh economy."
Misleading quote.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-pre ... deal-13975

The niesr predicts that the economy will be 3.5% smaller than it would have been in 10 years time had the UK remained in the EU. Not a reduction of 3.5% every year as that quote could be mis-read.as suggesting. It’ll be interesting to read what assumptions they’ve made in making that prediction.

To put that 3.5% into perspective, 2008’s financial crisis caused the UK economy to shrink by 6%. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowled ... wth-matter

The November 2018 report niesr did for the People’s Vote suggested that May’s deal would cause the economy to under perform by 4%. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/ec ... rexit-deal

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

Brenda from 2017 needs to be found again for another reaction in 2019.


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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Zero Gravitas wrote: It’ll be interesting to read what assumptions they’ve made in making that prediction.
The point being that a think-tank without political affiliations can get "the stuff" out and the Treasury with vastly more resources has been muffled... and as we go into the election will remain so, by convention.

It is clear that all these impact studies are against a base scenario (none of these Brexit changes)... or can you tell us what the overall growth trajectory for European economies over the next ten years will look like?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

%-readings as they are off: https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=h ... 5dJnqg--~C

Explains why Swinson was standing up and making her "is the PM running scared of debating with a girly swot" intervention in yesterday's PMQs, basically setting up the stall for three-way TV debates... which Corbyn wants to make a duopoly
- I hear Jo Swinson is from Scotland so it would be legit :) for her to "deputise" for the Other category in the linked image while the SNP naturally is trying to secure "a seat" in the debates
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

General Election to be held on Thursday 12th December.
Result to be announced on Friday 13th December.... :o

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

Caribbean wrote:For those who are interested in opinion polls, this site seems to do a good job of summarising them in one place (Mark Pack is a Lib Dem)
https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/

and this site gives a result modelling calculator, based on the high-level vote split (not sure about the political affiliations/ bias)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html for their prediction and
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html for the calculator (also attempts to model the results of tactical voting, if you want)
Wikipedia provides probably the best polling summary.

SW1
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SW1 »

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
Zero Gravitas wrote: It’ll be interesting to read what assumptions they’ve made in making that prediction.
The point being that a think-tank without political affiliations can get "the stuff" out and the Treasury with vastly more resources has been muffled... and as we go into the election will remain so, by convention.

It is clear that all these impact studies are against a base scenario (none of these Brexit changes)... or can you tell us what the overall growth trajectory for European economies over the next ten years will look like?
Find me an economic prediction that’s proved to be correct since and before the brexit referendum that justifies believing this one.

They havent the first clue how it’s going to work out in 2 years 5 years or 10 years any of them one way or another.

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Zero Gravitas
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Zero Gravitas »

Huh, never spotted that before. What a great resource.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

SKB wrote:

Result to be announced on Friday 13th December....
So, gone to pots/ dogs... even before we got started :lol:
SW1 wrote:that justifies believing this one.
Try DIY, mine have beaten whatever @demereifeld has picked up "from trusted sources" :thumbup: so far... but the past is not a guide to future performance :lol:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

Opening post-election announcement surveys:

29-30/10/2019
Survation - 50 seat majority to the Tories
YouGov - 166

It'll be interesting to see how well the polls/ models reflect reality
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Caribbean wrote:interesting to see how well the polls/ models reflect reality
Besides all the normal pacts (broad, or selective by seat) that can be captured in the models it is these votes whose migration will be tough to model " exodus of Tory Remainers [with] many of the men leaving are at the end of their careers, but the women are typically much younger".
- also the benefit of shouting from the roof tops that "now we have a deal" is somewhat devalued by Trump barging into the discussion and stating that with it the "pastures new" deal across the Atlantic would be impossible; another thing that is difficult to run through the models

WaughPost lists two further hand grenades that will be thrown into the campaigning (but working in opposite directions):
The Intelligence and Security Committee, chaired by Dominic Grieve, wants the urgent publication of its potentially explosive report on Russian interference in the 2016 referendum. No.10 was expected to approve it by today and time is now running out of this parliamentary session.

‌...and

The Jewish Labour Movement announced it will not campaign for Jeremy Corbyn in the coming election and will support only a handful of MPs who have battled against anti-Semitism in the party.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

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Pseudo
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Pseudo »

Caribbean wrote:Opening post-election announcement surveys:

29-30/10/2019
Survation - 50 seat majority to the Tories
YouGov - 166

It'll be interesting to see how well the polls/ models reflect reality
Early polls are meaningless as far as predicting the result go. It's going to be a couple of weeks before we start seeing polls that reflect the impact of the election campaign.

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ArmChairCivvy
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Pseudo wrote:be a couple of weeks before we start seeing polls that reflect
v true but by that time alliances and special targeting (of seats) would all be in place ... based on some form of polling (or averaging them, and local trends)
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Caribbean
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by Caribbean »

Pseudo wrote:Early polls are meaningless as far as predicting the result go. It's going to be a couple of weeks before we start seeing polls that reflect the impact of the election campaign.
I think we are all aware of the limitations of opinion polls and their relevance to the final result. The initial polls mark the starting point positions, just as the pre-announcement polls have their own validity for the circumstances at the time (overall support for a party's position can be overridden by specific election issues - I would suggest that the forthcoming election might well be one of those in which that is an important consideration).

At this point, noting the changes is likely to be more productive than the actual predicted result. If you are interested, you can use Mark Pack's downloadable database of voting intention polls to run your own long term analyses - his database goes back to 1945 (though it doesn't have pretty colours, like the Wikipedia page, admittedly).

As noted above, the previous Survation survey gave the Tories no overall control (-8 seats), the previous YouGov 178 seat majority.
Currently, ComRes and YouGov seem to be the two outliers among the polls, so probably reasonable to give them less weight than the others, for now at least.

As @ACC says, tactical voting is modelable to an extent, but the "retirement" (forced or otherwise) of an unusually large number of incumbents (some of whom have been in the House for longer than many reading this site have been alive), the unpredictability of when exactly the Toddler-in-chief will make another foot-in-mouth "contribution", reliance on economic predictions (with their own issues of reliability and method) to assess the impact of the core issue (and indeed, probable "tactical opinion polling" and a host of other issues, like the breakdown of conventional tribal politics), make this an unusually difficult election for the pollsters, so I'm interested in seeing who does best at compensating for these factors.
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill

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SKB
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Re: 2019 UK General Election

Post by SKB »

If there's no pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, then the 'leave' vote is going to be split and neither will get enough seats for a Commons majority....

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