2019 UK General Election

[R686]

What’s the general feeling in the UK with the election, do people here think that it will be a bigger turnout than the EU referenda or have people switched off and possibly be a low turnout?

[Caribbean]

If there's no pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, then the 'leave' vote is going to be split and neither will get enough seats for a Commons majority....

That's not supported by the gross polling figures at the moment, as the Brexit party's support is well below the Tories (to the point where it's unlikely to get any seats). In fact it's more a case of Labour and the Lib Dems taking chunks out of each other's support. It will be interesting to see how that changes as the tactical voting campaigns (on both sides of the divide) get themselves into gear. Swinson seems to think that the Lib Dems will take hundreds of sets and have no need to form a pact with Labour, likewise Johnson thinks he has no need of TBP, though they seem to have unilaterally decided to not campaign against the Tories in marginal seats. I think a lot of the co-operation will be at local (and thus deniable by the party leaders), rather than national level agreements.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Brexit party's support is well below the Tories (to the point where it's unlikely to get any seats)

it is the 8th time this guy https://michaelrawlins.co.uk/wp-content ... arage.jpeg is going after a seat in a "real parliament"

I think a lot of the co-operation will be at local (and thus deniable by the party leaders), rather than national level

Yes

they seem to have unilaterally decided to not campaign against the Tories in marginal seats

as they have the same paymasters... hybrid warfare & deniability, once again

[Caribbean]

TBP, though they seem to have unilaterally decided to not campaign against the Tories in marginal seats

..... and just to confuse, they now seem to have reversed that decision (the unilateral bit, that is - they now want a pact) - I guess a day is a long time in politics now

[T-Force]

polls have SNP winning 50 + seats

I think that it's likely that the SNP will do very well, but it's far too far out to really start relying on polls. Heck, the current polls were all conducted before the election was even announced. It'll be a couple of weeks before the polls will begin to indicate the direction that things are going.

latest polls say SNP will win 58 out of the 59 seats with just under 58% of the vote .... can't see it myself i reckon 53 tops on 45-50% of the vote

If there's no pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party, then the 'leave' vote is going to be split and neither will get enough seats for a Commons majority....

That's not supported by the gross polling figures at the moment, as the Brexit party's support is well below the Tories (to the point where it's unlikely to get any seats). In fact it's more a case of Labour and the Lib Dems taking chunks out of each other's support. It will be interesting to see how that changes as the tactical voting campaigns (on both sides of the divide) get themselves into gear. Swinson seems to think that the Lib Dems will take hundreds of sets and have no need to form a pact with Labour, likewise Johnson thinks he has no need of TBP, though they seem to have unilaterally decided to not campaign against the Tories in marginal seats. I think a lot of the co-operation will be at local (and thus deniable by the party leaders), rather than national level agreements.

Swinson will most likely lose her seat again she only got in via tactical voting won't happen this time due to too much being at stake for the other voters to back her

[SKB]

(The Telegraph) 1st November 2019

Brexit Party General Election campaign launch.

[Pseudo]

polls have SNP winning 50 + seats

I think that it's likely that the SNP will do very well, but it's far too far out to really start relying on polls. Heck, the current polls were all conducted before the election was even announced. It'll be a couple of weeks before the polls will begin to indicate the direction that things are going.

latest polls say SNP will win 58 out of the 59 seats with just under 58% of the vote .... can't see it myself i reckon 53 tops on 45-50% of the vote

For a response read the post that you're quoting. :p Though yeah, It'll be a very good day for the SNP if they win 52+ seats, and it'll be a very bad day for the Scottish Conservatives if they do.

[Pseudo]

(The Telegraph) 1st November 2019

Brexit Party General Election campaign launch.

The question is, can The Brexit Party find enough former members of the Revolutionary Communist Party to contest all those seats.

[ArmChairCivvy]

can The Brexit Party find enough former members of the Revolutionary Communist Party

The suppressed "interference report" would have the answer
- it (optics ) looks like BP and Boris are fighting each other
- what would happen to the campaign if the "wingman" was to be shot down through x-raying the connections and funding of the new "just add water" party of his that sprung up overnight... i.e. where would those "leave" votes end up (when folks could not bring themselves to vote for a "compromised" actor)?

[T-Force]

polls have SNP winning 50 + seats

I think that it's likely that the SNP will do very well, but it's far too far out to really start relying on polls. Heck, the current polls were all conducted before the election was even announced. It'll be a couple of weeks before the polls will begin to indicate the direction that things are going.

latest polls say SNP will win 58 out of the 59 seats with just under 58% of the vote .... can't see it myself i reckon 53 tops on 45-50% of the vote

For a response read the post that you're quoting. :p Though yeah, It'll be a very good day for the SNP if they win 52+ seats, and it'll be a very bad day for the Scottish Conservatives if they do.

Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour (no such registered parties btw) are expected to lose all there seats hence it will be impossible for Westminster to stand in the way of 2nd Indyref and if they did Scottish courts have the power to issue one through our constitutional courts and Westminster would have to abide by it already the UK electoral commission are trying to rig the question because yes is ahead in the polls Yes or No was fine in 2014 now they want Remain and Leave because it muddies the picture

[ArmChairCivvy]

can The Brexit Party find enough former members of the Revolutionary Communist Party

The suppressed "interference report" would have the answer
- it (optics ) looks like BP and Boris are fighting each other
- what would happen to the campaign if the "wingman" was to be shot down through x-raying the connections and funding of the new "just add water" party of his that sprung up overnight... i.e. where would those "leave" votes end up (when folks could not bring themselves to vote for a "compromised" actor)?

A Skynews story @2 pm today https://news.sky.com/story/russia-threa ... s-11851834 is starting to find shrapnel all over the place...

[ArmChairCivvy]

No idea where the Guardian gets these "understandings" from, but this
"It is understood that the dossier examines allegations that Russian money has flowed into British politics in general and to the Conservative party in particular. It also includes claims that Russia launched a major influence operation in 2016 in support of Brexit.

The process for clearing the report on security grounds was completed in the middle of October, after it was finalised in March 2019, but it has since sat with Downing Street awaiting its final release, according to the BBC."
would perfectly align with my idle speculations (for the reasons behind the delay).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ling-in-uk

[ArmChairCivvy]

Deal making constituency-by-constituency must pick up speed as candidate nominations have to be in on November 14
- manifesto writing efforts, I guess, are roughly on the same kind of time table

[Pseudo]

Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour (no such registered parties btw)

No one claimed that their were. However, they are separate branches so there is a distinction to make and even if they weren't it'd be common parlance for those parties in Scotland.

are expected to lose all there seats hence it will be impossible for Westminster to stand in the way of 2nd Indyref and if they did Scottish courts have the power to issue one through our constitutional courts and Westminster would have to abide by it already the UK electoral commission are trying to rig the question because yes is ahead in the polls Yes or No was fine in 2014 now they want Remain and Leave because it muddies the picture

Once again for the hard of comprehension. 59 is not a majority of 650. There's no legal means for the SNP to force parliament to allow a referendum even if they win every seat in Scotland. In the unlikely event that they didn't dismiss the case out of hand Scottish courts would rule against the Scottish government because granting permission to hold a referendum on Scottish independence is a reserved power. The Scottish parliament cannot legally unilaterally decide to hold one.

[ArmChairCivvy]

a referendum on Scottish independence is a reserved power.

I could not bring myself to listening to her... you know who, in today's rally, so was just watching the body language
- she seems to be full of beans

[SKB]

Sturgeon is an idiot who believes she is Prime Minister of Scotland.

[andrew98]

Sturgeon is an idiot who believes she is President of Scotland.

Corrected that for you.

[Pseudo]

Sturgeon is an idiot who believes she is Prime Minister of Scotland.

Sturgeon is many things, but she's not an idiot. Only a fool underestimates their opponents.

[ArmChairCivvy]

The last stand of no-dealers?
" this morning ...a series of polls suggested Brexit Party support had dipped below 10 per cent"

Are the ERGers just taking a low profile, to have the party backing for re-election, and then after the election will team up with the one or two BP MPs, in order to make up a "new DUP" to be able to say "no" to everything and anything (i.e. to hold the Gvmnt hostage)?

[Pseudo]

Anyone care to guess which party's manifesto is going to be written with the help of self-confessed Trotskyist and former member of the Revolutionary Communist Party, Munira Mirza?

Yep, it's the Conservative Party.

[Caribbean]

Anyone care to guess which party's manifesto is going to be written with the help of self-confessed Trotskyist and former member of the Revolutionary Communist Party, Munira Mirza?

Yep, it's the Conservative Party.

Well, if you read up on the Revolutionary Communist Group/ Party/ Tendency, you would be unsurprised- they were after all:

Opposed to the EU and the subordination of the British Parliament to the European Convention on Human Rights;
Opposed to immigration controls (the Tories talk about migration control, but don't actually do much that restricts legal immigration)
Opposed to non-tariff barriers to trade (the Tories are essentially in favour of free trade);
Had a history of opposition to the environmentalist movement;
Had a history of minimising the impact of the AIDS epidemic to the gay community (to be fair, they thought for the right reasons - most gay rights groups disagreed with them);
Had a history of opposing sanctions on the apartheid regime in South Africa;
Had a dislike of the Labour movement (too "statist", apparently );

There are probably lots of things that they disliked about he Tories, but it seems that they disliked the EU even more. as some ex-members of the RCH are alleged to have connections to the ERG and some are current Brexit Party Parliamentary candidates.

[T-Force]

Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour (no such registered parties btw)

No one claimed that their were. However, they are separate branches so there is a distinction to make and even if they weren't it'd be common parlance for those parties in Scotland.

are expected to lose all there seats hence it will be impossible for Westminster to stand in the way of 2nd Indyref and if they did Scottish courts have the power to issue one through our constitutional courts and Westminster would have to abide by it already the UK electoral commission are trying to rig the question because yes is ahead in the polls Yes or No was fine in 2014 now they want Remain and Leave because it muddies the picture

Once again for the hard of comprehension. 59 is not a majority of 650. There's no legal means for the SNP to force parliament to allow a referendum even if they win every seat in Scotland. In the unlikely event that they didn't dismiss the case out of hand Scottish courts would rule against the Scottish government because granting permission to hold a referendum on Scottish independence is a reserved power. The Scottish parliament cannot legally unilaterally decide to hold one.

59 is the number of Scottish seats ... UK court cannot over rule Scottish court it would create a precedent that would instantly end the act of Union of 1707 the fact is part of the vow which won the referendum in 2014 for the no side part of the vow was the transfer of powers to legislate referendas from Holyrood and Scottish law courts say if Holyrood announces a referendum it would be legal so it does not need to ask Westminster's permission but more than likely the Scottish courts will force Westminster to issue one to refuse would end the UK via a constitutional crisis

[Pseudo]

59 is the number of Scottish seats

There are, I mentioned a much in the post that you're quoting.

... UK court cannot over rule Scottish court

A UK court wouldn't need to overrule a Scottish court because as I said in the post that you're quoting, in the unlikely event that the Scottish Court didn't dismiss the case out of hand they would rule against the Scottish government because granting permission to hold a referendum on Scottish independence is a reserved power.

the fact is part of the vow which won the referendum in 2014 for the no side part of the vow was the transfer of powers to legislate referendas from Holyrood

No, it didn't. AFAIK there's nothing in the Scotland Act 2016 relating to referendums are you sure you're not getting confused with the provisions for allowing alterations to the Scottish electoral system? The question you should probably ask yourself is, if the Scottish parliament had the power to legislate a referendum without the agreement of the UK parliament then why didn't Sturgeon exercise it in March 2017 instead of gaining the approval of the Scottish Parliament to request a Section 30 order?

[ArmChairCivvy]

There are probably lots of things that they disliked about he Tories, but it seems that they disliked the EU even more. as some ex-members of the RCH are alleged to have connections to the ERG and some are current Brexit Party Parliamentary candidates.

Heh- heh... dislike of EU; the only (but still only an ascendant) superpower in addition to the two in the world [ Editors's note: Russia and India are regional powers; at least for now].
- what is the common denominator here?
- money comes from somewhere. The scene with the "rising force" in publishing on both sides of the Atlantic, as in " the Spectator", has similar contrails as for their contributers - though not for the money. The Times says that Bannon now, have you heard , wants to syndicate the take-over (a friendly one ) of the Telegraph?

As for "referendas"... have you heard that the budget for the Russian trolls factory was doubled lately (though the people do not all work in that country/ location... as the IP addresses would be far too easy to trace )
... and the pay is by line of output So expect much more

[Pseudo]

Well, if you read up on the Revolutionary Communist Group/ Party/ Tendency, you would be unsurprised- they were after all:

Cool, so you're basically "Yey, communism!" at this point.

Opposed to the EU and the subordination of the British Parliament to the European Convention on Human Rights;
Opposed to immigration controls (the Tories talk about migration control, but don't actually do much that restricts legal immigration)
Opposed to non-tariff barriers to trade (the Tories are essentially in favour of free trade);
Had a history of opposition to the environmentalist movement;
Had a history of minimising the impact of the AIDS epidemic to the gay community (to be fair, they thought for the right reasons - most gay rights groups disagreed with them);
Had a history of opposing sanctions on the apartheid regime in South Africa;
Had a dislike of the Labour movement (too "statist", apparently );

Yes, we can all agree that the ideology of the Revolutionary Communist Party was pretty insane.

There are probably lots of things that they disliked about he Tories, but it seems that they disliked the EU even more. as some ex-members of the RCH are alleged to have connections to the ERG and some are current Brexit Party Parliamentary candidates.

Claire Fox, a current Brexit Party MEP is a former member.