Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[Caribbean]

permanent membership of a customs union

Can we do that and still have independent trade agreements with other countries? I thought that was a no-no.

[R686]

From an outsiders view, I just cant understand Theresa May position on Brexit.

From sources I have seen she is in the remain camp but when becoming PM said she will see the wishes of the people thru, but it appears she is doing it name only and doing everything in her power to remain tied to the EU in some form with none of the benefits of the system but continuing to abide by EU customs rule, if the backstop comes to fruitarian.

Also I'm vexed on the NI situation where as they want to continue to trade under a customs union but remain in the UK, I sort of understand the reason behind why they want to do it, but looking at the trade and services that NI contribute as a whole leaves some question marks if the withdrawal agreement goes ahead with a hard border at the Irish Sea.

From what I have found online in regards to the manufacturing and trade is that, 50b worth of goods stay within NI,15b distributed within the remaining UK,4b to the ROI,3b to the rest of the EU and 5b to the rest of the world.

Now you take away the rest of world as that comes under agreements via the EU to third countries its more than likely that the UK can negotiate agreements which in theory cost the same in the future. if all of Ireland stays within the customs union there is no change to 7b worth of products, but if a hard border is in place at the Irish sea any cross border goods will incur additional charges as it is not in the EU so that's 15b worth of goods. Lets see weigh up tariffs on 15b worth of goods or 7b.

The reason I say this is if the EU get control of NI they cant trade with UK without tariffs unless the whole of the UK stays in the customs union and that defeats the purpose of exiting the union. But if a hard Brexit takes place near nigh imposable that the UK will secede sovereign territory to the UK.

To me NI is fucked over either way.

[R686]

permanent membership of a customs union

Can we do that and still have independent trade agreements with other countries? I thought that was a no-no.

that's the impression I'm under as the UK will have to abide by all the rules but have no say, and that includes trade to third countries.

[dmereifield]

permanent membership of a customs union

Can we do that and still have independent trade agreements with other countries? I thought that was a no-no.

that's the impression I'm under as the UK will have to abide by all the rules but have no say, and that includes trade to third countries.

Shaping up to be BRINO

[R686]

BRINO

??????

[Caribbean]

BRINO = BRexit In Name Only

[ArmChairCivvy]

permanent membership of a customs union

Can we do that and still have independent trade agreements with other countries? I thought that was a no-no.

BRINO was from Rees-Mogg, no? He has so many children that this calling names habit must have been picked up from the play ground; won't solve trade policy problems though

As for the question, this is where the EEA option comes in (tariff free trade). It is not that simple because the agreement was constructed for a different era:

It is a bilateral agreement between EFTA and the EU:
- you need to join EFTA to be a party
- however, if you join EFTA and decide not to be a party... that is an option
- what is not an option (if you join EFTA) is their FTAs negotiated with third parties. This is why Norway PM (jokingly) said that Norway is a now a superpower within EFTA and, should the UK come in - even briefly, those FTAs would then be negotiated from very different premises.

We could solve, taking this direction
- the NI problem (which is political, not economic as evidenced by the figures thrown about above in the thread)
- goods trade with EU (we have a deficit; why has this been set as a priority)
- would put ourselves at the mercy of our competitors in services trade (where we have a surplus, paying for the Mercs and French wine&cheese)

Do the net-net of the above, and it shows the folly of taking this option off the shelf, now in the last minute.
- However, it should have been taken as a blue print for negotiations from Day One, across the broader front of issues
- and who decided to 'jump without a parachute' when there were better options https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/imag ... 9adLIq9zyg even though they do take some skill to put into practice

[ArmChairCivvy]

access to European Defence Fund (promoting joint projects) and the way into that is PESCO. Which is not a European defence force, though initiated by France and Germany

More 'baddies' have been outed: " the European Defence Fund, the European Defence Industrial Development Programme and PESCO"

If we willingly shut ourselves out from joint projects (as in jointly funded), oo-key? Let's just take a pick from PESCO (that is already rolling, from amongst the first 17 projects; more are in the approvals process):

European Secure Software defined Radio (ESSOR); have we got one (the previous generation had to be outsourced to Harris as the delivery failed)
Network of Logistic Hubs in Europe and Support to Operations
Military Mobility; we start from blocks that are typically furthest away from where we will need to get to, with the least admin hindrance
European Union Training Mission Competence Centre (EU TMCC)
Deployable Military Disaster Relief Capability Package
Maritime (semi-) Autonomous Systems for Mine Countermeasures (MAS MCM)
Harbour & Maritime Surveillance and Protection (HARMSPRO)
Upgrade of Maritime Surveillance
Cyber Threats and Incident Response Information Sharing Platform
Cyber Rapid Response Teams and Mutual Assistance in Cyber Security
Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle / Amphibious Assault Vehicle / Light Armoured Vehicle; we took a 'Boxer' holiday - shall we skip the next-gen, too?
Indirect Fire Support (EuroArtillery); somehow figures among the US Army Big Six top capability priorities in which overmatch is deemed crucial: long-range precision fires, next-generation combat vehicle, future vertical lift family of helicopters, air-and-missile defense, soldier lethality and the network.
- I am sure we can 'mix and match' and borrow the soldier lethality outcomes from the other side of the Pond

[ArmChairCivvy]

I wonder if Farage is going to pop up again. This whole campaign about Britain becoming 'great' again has got v little attention (is it the lack of researched substance) and most of the effort has been directed at ' how evil' the EU is
- so stirring up a lot of emotion
- while, in fact, knowing the whole exercise is harmful (self-inflicted harm, to make it worse)

[ArmChairCivvy]

While the pop corn in being prepared (another kg, after the first batch went stale), the next amendment idea "gives the Commons three weeks after the defeat of May’s deal to come up with a new compromise, and if no agreement is reached then hands unprecedented power to the Liaison Committee of senior MPs. The Liaison Committee would then recommend a single option and put it to MPs for a further vote."

To quote someone from not too far back "Coup is entirely the wrong word" - a better word, including the cross-bench nuance would be
joint =
mixto,meh... junta!

[abc123]

So, what do you think? Will the deal pass?

[ArmChairCivvy]

The FT has taken stock:
"
Downing Street has already indicated that it is willing to accept two amendments: one by Labour backbenchers including John Mann, which restates a commitment to uphold EU social and environmental protections, and another by Conservative backbenchers including Hugo Swire, which gives parliament more control over the backstop."

If it sounds funny that we Opt Out when we go in and Opt In when we leave... then the explanation could be that the only way to get the DUP to vote with Labour in a vote of no confidence is for May’s deal to pass.
- on the control over the backstop amendment I offered come comparisons with how that sort of thing has worked (or not!) with EU in the EEA context

Now the Gvmnt seem to support the new one for time limiting backstop to end of 2021
- so we now will have an option to crash out then, rather than come back to work - on the coming April Fool's Day - and be outside the EU (would not be a joke!)
- also, the transition period can only be extended once, so would that same date not become the maximum extension, too? Some wonderful technology might be in place by then, who can tell

[ArmChairCivvy]

Reuters survey sees the proposed package somehow morphing closer to an FTA deal as the likeliest outcome (IT TAKES TWO to tango...).

As the above is "far from being defined" it is more interesting to look at the probabilities of the more defined outcomes:
"now in second place was Britain being a member of the European Economic Area, paying into the EU budget to maintain access to the EU’s single market ["BUYER'S REMORSE"; this would have been taken if the deal on offer would have been known?]. Third spot went to Brexit being cancelled, moved up [GRASSROOTS' PRESSURE STARTING TO BEAR?] from last place.

Slipping to fourth [ and last ] place [MORE PEOPLE HAVE DONE THEIR HOME WORK AS TO WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS?] from second was leaving without an agreement and trading under basic World Trade Organization rules. "

[ArmChairCivvy]

After the UK "will have left":
"At the moment the Parliament boasts 751 seats, which is the maximum number allowed by the EU treaties. Following the decision, 27 of the UK's 73 seats will be redistributed to other countries, while the remaining 46 seats will be kept for future enlargements. This means the number of MEPs to be elected will be 705." ... like the UK coming back?

[dmereifield]

So, what do you think? Will the deal pass?

Not tomorrow that's for sure!

[dmereifield]

some examples of actual tangible negative impacts please. EU student numbers have continued to increase since the referendum, they will continue to do so

- are you sure, cfr:
"The Russell Group of leading research universities says there has already been a downturn in EU students wanting to study in the UK.
Data from its 24 universities shows a 3% fall in EU students in the current intake" and they expect that trend to pick up momentum
- source: https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46748512

Further, the universities " are also worried by proposals for new restrictions on EU students after Brexit in the government's White Paper on migration, published before Christmas.
These 130,000 EU students will need to have visas and be sponsored by universities - and the Russell Group has warned that it is "unrealistic and unsustainable" to expect universities to take on the administrative burden."

In terms of research funding, HMG have announced additional research budgets that replace, and exceed, EU grant funding

I see, so this is not as presented, then?
" two examples of funding at risk - the European Research Council and Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions - which would be worth £1.2bn to UK institutions over the next two years.

The UK has been among the biggest winners from EU research funding. University leaders say that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, UK institutions would "immediately become ineligible" for this funding. After next year, there is a wider pot of European research funding at stake, worth more than £90bn.

Universities want assurances that any lost research funding will be replaced by the UK government."
- does not exactly sound like they have received the said assurances, yes?
- source: https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46748512

Sorry for the delayed response, took a vacation.

I was sure until I saw the Russel group report....all I can say is that the number of EU students continued to increase after the referendum up until the last academic year. I don't think the full data for the current year is available. The Russel group (24 institutions) data don't look great, but it's not clear if this extends across the board (ca. 200 UK institutions). It's also not clear if this is a Brexit specific effect - It appears to be driven by postgraduate level numbers falling (by 9%) - I'm not sure why Brexit would be driving that specifically

Regarding the research funding, yes HMG pledged to match the EU level funds to 2020, and in fact increase it by ca. £2 bn per year (some of which is new research money, and some of which is through making more DfID funds available to UK Universities and Research Institutes - helping to solve issues relevant to developing nations but spending the money doing so in the UK at UK institutes). I can send you some links to verify if you insist (but I'll have to use my computer to do it at some point in the coming days - as is often evident by my poor grammar, I only ever visit this sight on my phone (usually when I'm procrastinating))

[ArmChairCivvy]

The Russel group (24 institutions) data don't look great, but it's not clear if this extends across the board (ca. 200 UK institutions)

As you know they represent the driving ambition (on the part of the qualified applicants) and there are many institutions that have a "bums on seats" -policy; as the Russel group is more tightly aligned, they are also able to come back with updated numbers before those that leave it to the ONS.

Regarding the research funding, yes HMG pledged to match the EU level funds to 2020

That is gr8 ... as most research prgrms run over a couple, or many more, years.

evident by my poor grammar

I have not noticed... on TD there was this Chinese chemistry student that fitted 5 spello's to each line, whenever the discussion stalled and there was a need for some new angle; or even a false statement 'to be killed' and thereby getting the conversation going again

Sorry for the delayed response, took a vacation

Your return was timely, and I would gladly share the sofa - and the popcorn! - to watch the fireworks... but we live in a virtual world

[ArmChairCivvy]

On R4 morning news a Gvmnt aligned interviewee was brought in, so these labels are now

junta!

monstrosity

the new one for time limiting backstop to end of 2021

(beautiful ) sunset

[dmereifield]

The Russel group (24 institutions) data don't look great, but it's not clear if this extends across the board (ca. 200 UK institutions)

As you know they represent the driving ambition (on the part of the qualified applicants) and there are many institutions that have a "bums on seats" -policy; as the Russel group is more tightly aligned, they are also able to come back with updated numbers before those that leave it to the ONS.

Regarding the research funding, yes HMG pledged to match the EU level funds to 2020

That is gr8 ... as most research prgrms run over a couple, or many more, years.

evident by my poor grammar

I have not noticed... on TD there was this Chinese chemistry student that fitted 5 spello's to each line, whenever the discussion stalled and there was a need for some new angle; or even a false statement 'to be killed' and thereby getting the conversation going again

Sorry for the delayed response, took a vacation

Your return was timely, and I would gladly share the sofa - and the popcorn! - to watch the fireworks... but we live in a virtual world

I'm with you in spirit, but alas no popcorn- watching at work (occassionally) as I try to read a 300 page document that I must examine someone on tomorrow...

[ArmChairCivvy]

read a 300 page document

Half-timer ... 585 is the "new A4"
- plus, add some waffle, like political declarations. Does not need to be read as no meaning is carried

[ArmChairCivvy]

Lots of good speakers:
- Father of the House "why can't folks see through this nonsense"
- SNP (while the two upNorth are skirmishing with each other): skewered Labour beautifully "stop sitting on the fence" as two thirds are not sitting on the fence - but do not have a voice

It is easy like 123 (and4)
1 "remain"
2 break up the country... not right now, but a tad later
3 crash out in 2022... not right now (in March)
4 be able to unilaterally revoke the Irish backstop (so it thereby becomes a not-backstop)

These are not amendments, exc. for 3: it actually speaks to what has been negotiated

[SKB]

MP's REJECT Theresa May's Brexit Deal





Full list of how MPs voted: https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Di ... etails/562

[SKB]

Prime Minister's response:


Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a motion of No Confidence in the government, which will be voted on tomorrow:

[SKB]

[ArmChairCivvy]

clear [...] that the United Kingdom can revoke Article 50 unilaterally, raising the hopes of pro-Europeans who hope to stop Brexit with another referendum.

So what might the feelers that The Telegraph is writing about https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brit ... SKCN1P127N
be regarding? Like
- if we revoke now,
- would you consider it rude when we will hand the notice in, again ?

The first point refers to a well defined and time-limited reason, so that would work as per that Reuters piece: "Extending the divorce beyond March 29, 2019 would require the unanimous agreement of EU heads of state and government in the European Council. " as long as the request goes in so that there are enough days left for the process.

The latter question was a subject of disagreement in yesterday's debate:
- Ken Clarke thought it can be done
- the Attorney General contradicted that in his comment
... I think they will study the question together

Another Reuters piece, from close to midnight, indicates how this "war" is fought by proxy
"Lawmakers are preparing a motion to delay the Article 50 process of leaving the European Union, government ministers told business leaders, according to a source who was on the call."

"Finance minister Philip Hammond, business minister Greg Clark and Brexit minister Stephen Barclay said that a “backbench motion is being prepared now to delay Article 50,”["]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1P92ZG
- the URL naming suggests that the businesses the ministers sought to reassure were not limited to British only, but (if so) that part has been deleted from the published piece