Donald Trump

[ArmChairCivvy]

Good going: First the Chief of the Chiefs demoted within the National Security apparatus, and now this:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/e ... ate-234908

[ArmChairCivvy]

Going, going, gone: Security Advisor Flynn resigns

[R686]

Good going: First the Chief of the Chiefs demoted within the National Security apparatus, and now this:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/e ... ate-234908

Trump certantly needs a can of HTFU, with all these year in business I can't believe he's so thin skinned.

The way he's going I can't see him lasting 2 years let alone 4.

[ArmChairCivvy]

lasting 2 years let alone 4.

Well, he knew, for three weeks, about these matters Flynn was up to and about lying to the vice-Prez
... Washington Post seems to be up for another Watergate, judging from the coverage and the research that is going into it.

[R686]

I think they really have to move Sean Spicer on as press secratary, Allison Janney would do a good job least she can remember her lines.

http://www.9news.com.au/world/2017/02/1 ... -wrong-too

[ArmChairCivvy]

Here is a wider summary, a blogger getting space in Washington Post (the punch line is the same Trumble & Joe as in the contribution above):

"... scenario, Trump finds a top-notch national security adviser and allows him to run proper policy development and oversee the critical inter-agency function. Trump should stop micro-managing his Cabinet secretaries’ hiring and delegate to them the hard work of developing and implementing policy. The good news is that Defense Secretary James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Director of National Intelligence nominee Dan Coats and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly can work collaboratively and without the usual inter-agency conflict.

That allows Trump to work on his domestic agenda, delegating to Vice President Pence the heavy lifting and empowering him to devise — along with House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — health-care and tax reform schemes that his base will like and that have a reasonable chance of passage. Pence should be invested with the experience to speak on behalf of the president, not White House staffers (e.g. Kellyanne Conway, Stephen Miller) who have no policy expertise and who lack credibility outside the Oval Office.

Along with all this, the White House needs a sober, respected communications operation in which the White House press secretary is not the object of derision but an authoritative voice for the administration.

The other scenario? Trump continues pitting staffers against one another, allows Bannon to muck around in foreign policy, hires a Flynn 2.0 at NSC, perpetuates the impression that he and his staff are allergic to reality — and becomes a spectacularly failed president."

Could go either way; what is for sure is that we do not have another Reagan in making; Trump is too obsessed with being the centre piece, lights shining on him and cameras rolling.

[ArmChairCivvy]

The good news is that Defense Secretary James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Director of National Intelligence nominee Dan Coats and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly can work collaboratively and without the usual inter-agency conflict.

Allegedly it is not plain sailing: according to WP Harward turns down the offer to be the next Flynn (just to be set up; the part in brackets is my interpretation)

[marktigger]

he really is living up to my expectations

[SKB]

he really is living down to my expectations

[SDL]

AP are reporting they have an 11 page document from the DHS to the WH that suggests Trump is looking at deploying up to 100K National Guard nation wide to 'Round up illegal immigrants'

[bobp]

There seems to be a upsurge in the amount of claimed Fake News Stories, its beginning to get hard to make out who is telling the truth. One thing for certain Trump is not listening to his advisors. And you cant run a country by giving out orders.

Is this the beginning of the end of Globalisation, meanwhile here in UK we have Tony Blair trying to lecture one and all against Brexit. Not sure who is paying Tony Blair to do this maybe the EU maybe the Vatican, but I don't think his opinion will take him far.

[ArmChairCivvy]

an 11 page document from the DHS to the WH

Being a bit more specific would be helpful. We dont want to become here akin to the Iranian centrifuges for uranium enrichment that, infested by a virus, spun themselves to "death".

[SDL]

This is an article about the leaked memo, with the memo linked in....

http://www.vox.com/2017/2/17/14648694/n ... eportation

[SKB]

Watching Donald Trump live on BBC news now, he's just said he refuses to fly on proposed AirForce One replacements as he says $4bn for 2 planes is too expensive.

[SDL]

and he's repeated the lie about the F35 program....

this is nothing more than an ego-stroking event for the tango'd minion. Utterly horrific what i'm seeing

[ArmChairCivvy]

This is an article about the leaked memo, with the memo linked in....

http://www.vox.com/2017/2/17/14648694/n ... eportation

Thanks, the reason I asked for the source (You can find it if you follow my link) is that Trumps tweets have now been traced back (not all, but with a remarkable correlation) to Fox News. Therefore this mapping may be highly amusing (while reading it the wisdom dating back to the Roman Emperors comes alive again: "who will guard the Guards"):
http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/check-poli ... edia-site/

Trump of course has a value-add from his processing of news, which moves the output one step to the right in the attached "map".

[Spinflight]

Lol,

Think he's magnificent myself.

[ArmChairCivvy]

one step to the right in the attached "map".

You can manipulate the graph with a key combination ALT+RIGHT

[ArmChairCivvy]

the White House needs a sober, respected communications operation in which the White House press secretary is not the object of derision but an authoritative voice for the administration.

The other scenario? Trump continues pitting staffers against one another, allows Bannon to muck around in foreign policy, hires a Flynn 2.0 at NSC

A good day on the roller coaster, seems that Trump has hired a multitalent National Security Adviser, Reuters add this to the profile:
"gained renown in the first Gulf War - and was awarded a Silver Star - after he commanded a small troop of the U.S. 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment that destroyed a much larger Iraqi Republican Guard force in 1991 in a place called 73 Easting, for its map coordinates, in what many consider the biggest tank battle since World War Two.

As one fellow officer put it, referring to Trump's inner circle of aides and speaking on condition of anonymity, the Trump White House "has its own Republican Guard, which may be harder for him to deal with than the Iraqis were." The Iraqi Republican Guard was the elite military force of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein.

Trump relies on a tight, insular group of advisers, who at times appear to have competing political agendas."

We can now expect a more joined up foreign policy (and armed extensions of it, at times, rather than the two not pointing in exactly the same direction)
- the remaining snag?
- nobody knows ,as yet, what the Foreign Policy will be, but one thing is likely: the sand in and around Raqqa might soon glow white.

[ArmChairCivvy]

nobody knows ,as yet, what the Foreign Policy will be

Looks like nobody knows who is in charge of householding in the White House, either - take a peep:
https://open.whitehouse.gov/browse

[ArmChairCivvy]

The Arctic part of this deal would be a good reason for a thaw in the Russo/ US relations:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon ... UE20120418

Then again, since the inking of the deal Black Sea EEZs have been redrawn. Crimea back to Ukraine; and then swap the signatory for that part of the deal? After all, it was the oil majors that came up with scenario planning as a tool and defence/ Foreign Policy folks only followed suit.

Indeed, China got so worried about Exxon and Rosneft getting close that rumours about them combining the two Chinese oil companies for "strategic" reasons started to circulate.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Why is the above likely?
1. Prioritising China above Russia as a strategic competitor
2. " neither the Obama or Trump government have been eager to become the primary protectors of Middle Eastern governments. Western allies have complained bitterly about Obama’s reluctance to do more than “lead from behind.” If Trumps comments are to be believed, he also has little interest in raising US stakes in the region"
3. With its stability fund running dry and direct access to capital markets blocked, Russia is playing along and using "conduits" for access to capital.
" Russia announced a blockbuster deal for the sale of nearly 20% of state-owned Rosneft stock to a partnership of Glencore and Qatar’s sovereign fund."
- noices about Qatar having to face "something" for sanction busting are just the usual "smoke" emitted to hide the manoeuvering on this "battlefield"

What is already happening?
"According to depka.com ...US, Russia, and Turkey to develop separate safe haven zones in Syria that clearly exclude Iran and Hizbollah.

If this plan has really been approved by the US and Russia, as the Israeli site contends, then it’s clear that Iran and Hezbollah have been excluded, as per the strong demands of Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms (the unlikely partners?)"

And next? Enter Tillerson
"Former Secretary of State, Condaleeza Rice, who also sits on the[Exxon] BoD, along with Former CIA Director and Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, both listed as an Exxon consultant, also were strong backers of Tillerson to Trump.

It’s hardly a coincidence that Henry Kissinger[...] has emerged as a chief foreign policy advisor to the Trump Administration.

Nor is it surprising that [ according to published (?) reports of] Kissinger’s advice to Trump is to seek to normalize US/Russian relations, diametrically opposed to the Obama/Clinton policies of confrontation with Russia."
- on this last point the reasearcher (Robert Berke) forgets that right after his inauguration Obama sent Kissinger to see Putin (heh-heh, as a law professor the steps were set - time wise - in the right order by Obama, so no Flynngate there; even the visit itself went pretty much unreported)
- it was only after Putin decided to make himself a "heavier-weight" negotiator through trouble making that the Obama/ Clinton policy changed, and even then "resets" were tried at every opportunity

So Russia opting for the West or for China, as a strategic partner?
" particularly China given the signed momentous multi-billion dollar energy deals with Russia, as well as Russia’s central position in the roll-out of the China's enormous Silk Road project.

The problem for Russia is that the opportunities for participation in Chinese Silk Road ventures require heavy upfront investment with profits only linked to a distant future, while the Russian government budget is in dire need now. Instead, the Western promises, for example, such as pipelines, can be built in one year on already existing and ongoing projects with the EU, with guaranteed financing and payoffs."
Add to this that when Western sanctions hit, Putin rushed to those 25 year supply deals with China, complete with pipelines to deliver the deals. When the steel glut came hot on the heels of those developments, the Chinese said "ooh, the pipeline is in the wrong place" and made Russia pay for the differently routed one (built with steel coming form China). One to pay back there...

[GastonGlocker]

Correlation? I believe so:



http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... rally.html





Based on this:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/28/politics/ ... index.html

[ArmChairCivvy]

WP (the Post) is digging into Governance (the structure that defines who controls whose activities within the Federal Gvmnt):

"One of the meetings [of the attorney general, Sessions] was a private conversation between Sessions and Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak that took place in September in the senator’s office, at the height of what U.S. intelligence officials say was a Russian cyber campaign to upend the U.S. presidential race.

The previously undisclosed discussions could fuel new congressional calls for the appointment of a special counsel to investigate Russia’s alleged role in the 2016 presidential election. As attorney general, Sessions oversees the Justice Department and the FBI, which have been leading investigations into Russian meddling and any links to Trump’s associates. He has so far resisted calls to recuse himself."

I hate to make the comparison (the personalities in the flashback to many decades from now being of a very different standing), but a few may recall John F as the President and his brother Bob as the attorney general (to watch his back).

[SDL]

Sessions is done... if not for illegally meeting with the Russians... then for lying under oath about it.