mrclark303 wrote: ↑06 Nov 2023, 18:22
SW1 wrote: ↑06 Nov 2023, 17:55
SiVisPacemParaBellum wrote: ↑06 Nov 2023, 17:27
Am I the only one who sees a correlation between germany possibly opting for GCAP and RUSI releasing an article that more money is needed?
Apart from that: Germany will try to seal a GCAP participation asap if Scholz actually decides to abandon FCAS - which is still pretty unlikely imho.
The rusi article is months old and was discussed months ago when released. Mr bronk who wrote it a cheerleader for buy American and is very good a pr for us defence primes.
I think Germany will probably strike a 180 aircraft F35A deal with German assembly and some construction, if they pull out of FCAS.
GCAP doesn't fit German requirements, F35A fits it like a glove in size and capability, it's 'almost' a done deal for LM.
Germany will strike a deal with Germany
Germany currently posses 85 Tornados (IDS + ECR) and 140 Eurofighter Typhoons.
33 out of 140 are T1 aircraft which will be replaced by 38 T4 Typhoons.
The Bundestag will prbly also approve 15 additional T4 ECR Typhoons by 15.11.23.
They also ordered 35 F-35s to replace a part of the Tornados.
Which means that we'll be looking at 160 Typhoons, 35 F-35s and 50 Tornados.
There are two options to replace the remaining Tornados:
Replace them with another Batch (35-50) of F-35s (highly unlikely).
Or replace them with T5 Typhoons which is the most probable outcome - some sources even suggest an order by mid 2025.
I'd say that 50-60 T5 Typhoons and 15 additional T5 ECR Typhoons are a pretty likely order.
This means that Germany will be looking at a fleet of 35 F-35s + 225-235 Typhoons by the mid 30s.
A Fleet of +250 4.5th and 5th gen Fighters, europe's most capable airlift capacity and air defence is imho pretty impressive.
Coming to GCAP/FCAS/F-35:
I think that the german politicians will Stick to FCAS and I do also expect it to be realized and ordered in sufficient Numbers.
What are the most likely alternatives?
I'd say
1. National 5th gen development based on the Typhoon
2. More F-35s (to replace) T2 Typhoons
3. Joint program with Sweden to develop a 5th gen Fighter
However Germany will focus itself on the production of Drones. I'd say that a SOJ, ECR and loyal Wingman drone are likely to be build.
Germany will either develop them as a part of FCAS or alone - to Supplement Typhoons or F-35s in the future.