tomuk wrote: ↑08 Oct 2023, 02:36
Mercator wrote: ↑07 Oct 2023, 23:46
From an old news article back in June 2022:
Navantia recently offered to develop a further three destroyers to the RAN by 2030, doubling the size of the fleet to six.
The program would cost an estimated $6 billion – $2 billion for each vessel.
Navantia Australia managing director Israel Lozano Barragan told The Australian the additional Hobart Class destroyers could be built locally, in Spain or via a “hybrid model” across both countries.
This, he said, would depend on the capacity of South Australia’s Osborne Shipyard.
Ahead of Prime Minister Albanese’s meeting with Prime Minister Sanchez, he was asked if acquiring three additional vessels would form part of the discussions.
“I would expect that will be one of the topics that will come up today,” he said.
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/naval ... peculation
There are definitely options available. Pursuing this option does not mean that the Hunters are finished, but anything after vessel number three is at risk, IMHO. In yearly budget terms, paying for new vessels – new Hobarts – especially if you can secure a fixed price, is not too devastating to the budget. It's in the out years, crewing these vessels, arming them with missiles and paying for the 'at sea' time that's the expensive part. That would be somebody else's problem though.
The obvious question would be why weren't six Hobarts built at the time? Were there program issues? Was there criticism of the meagre VLS size? I don't necessarily need answers to the last two questions as I can both guess or am already aware.
At the time the ANZAC class still had years in them (the midlife update was underway), so another class of frigate was envisaged further down the track, probably with an ASW/GP focus. The Hobarts themselves were always considered to be replacements of a previous three vessel AAW destroyer class (the Charles F Adams). as time wore on and China became more belligerent, the sorts of heavy duty fleet actions that this sort of class would need to survive became more obvious. [It may be that securing choke points in the second island chain was the original mission and now the focus is shifting to assist in the first island chain as well. None of this will be obvious outside of high-level cabinet considerations. And every government is reluctant to commit themselves to a strategy or alliance obligations in that sort of detail.]
Those that were fixated on the ASW aspect obviously won the 'future frigate' program, but apparently it was not the Navy's recommendation to choose the T26. Industrial considerations probably had more to do with this decision and the fact that it was completely in the design phase when it made the shortlist (against notional rules for that sort of thing) suggests that a heavy political consideration was already in play. Whoever was chosen as the winner of the competition would ultimately end up being the operator of Australia's premier shipbuilding capability for the next 30 odd years, so government wanted a team player. In the end, the choice was British, Spanish or Italian, and the start of a long partnership – so that probably played on the minds of government (and that is not entirely unfair).
Navantia had a bruising experience building the Hobart class and obviously did not win a lot of friends in government (correctly pointing the finger at people responsible for certain decisions does annoy them). BAE's reputation was hardly much better (some of the blocks they delivered were atrocious), but obviously it's possible to secure a better reputation behind closed doors; they have long been established in Australia and the Spanish probably were no good at the politics. Now BAE find themselves in the same situation (having difficulties with delivery timetables) and Navantia gets to return the favour (with a good product floating around and memories fading).
The ASW mission of the proposed 'frigate' is still relevant to a degree, but concerns about survivability are now much more prominent. It was definitely an oversight 10 years ago that this was not much more relevant – but perhaps it was and was overlooked by government for industrial purposes, or the mission changed. Without the full story it's hard to judge. The Hobart's themselves are not terrible at the ASW mission and their survivability is less questionable. Plus it would not surprise me that there is a faction simply asking for double the existing AAW capability and robbing Peter pays Paul. If there was simply extra money available to purchase three more Hobarts, it's very likely there would be no 'backgrounding' quietly knifing the Hunter program. But capability delivery is a blood sport in Australia.