Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
Spitfire9
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Spitfire9 »

mrclark303 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 00:17 GCAP spending will be very heavily weighted into the first 8 years, it can't be drip fed, each country will have to sign a cast iron unbreakable contract, to ensure none are in a position to fatally cripple the programme, when it's started.

I expect a guaranteed airframe buy and investment allocation by each country, at contract signature too.

We won't have long to wait, by 2025 we will be contractually locked in, or it will be cancelled for an F35A buy by all three countries.

The next government will have to sign the cheque!
Yes, penalty clauses if you decide you want to change your mind would be a good idea. Swingeing financial penalties would also discourage new governments from trying to leave the programme, so creating financial chaos. It is said that when Thatcher ordered the Trident system the agreed penalties for cancellation were so heavy that it would have cost almost as much to cancel as to go through with the programme. How to keep governing even if the electorate has replaced you with someone else!
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

mrclark303 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 23:46
Meriv9 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 21:51 Everyone that could order a 6th generation is in the team making process.

As by now hypothesis since they keep changing

Germany <- Korea -> UAE as the latest news

( UK + ITA + JAP ) <- KSA

France -> India (this is my hypothesis and all starting from SCAF not going very far)

NGAD+ Israel since the KSA would get the Tempest, perfect excuse for the Israeli

Wanna bet that as soon as the Ukraine war ends the Russians and Chinese will work together?

Who is left outside?

Sweden
Spain
F-35 Users:
Canada
EU users (Finland, Norway, Poland, Belgium,Denmark, Swiss)
Australia
Singapore.

IMHO who we could bring over to Tempest team is Australians, since they also have the exact needs we have as Marine powers without carrier ability. And Sweden since after the Baltics got in they are a second line country.

In 30 years we will have new markets but not many. Indonesia, Egypt, Thaliand, Brasil for example

Plus F-35 users but they will be too small for the Tempest or be too much in the frontline for Tempest characteristics.
France and India in a program, now that would be really amusing to watch, they would both butt heads all day long, talk about the blind leading the blind....
I think they'd be perfect. Bribe givers in business with bribe takers. Match made in heaven. Nuclear capable, aircraft carrier capable. We don't care who you bomb, just pay us the royalties.

And this "missing 5 billion" is around 2% of the UKs 10 year equipment budget. It's 5,000 civil servants' wages and overheads for a decade.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SD67 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 10:51
mrclark303 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 23:46
Meriv9 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 21:51 Everyone that could order a 6th generation is in the team making process.

As by now hypothesis since they keep changing

Germany <- Korea -> UAE as the latest news

( UK + ITA + JAP ) <- KSA

France -> India (this is my hypothesis and all starting from SCAF not going very far)

NGAD+ Israel since the KSA would get the Tempest, perfect excuse for the Israeli

Wanna bet that as soon as the Ukraine war ends the Russians and Chinese will work together?

Who is left outside?

Sweden
Spain
F-35 Users:
Canada
EU users (Finland, Norway, Poland, Belgium,Denmark, Swiss)
Australia
Singapore.

IMHO who we could bring over to Tempest team is Australians, since they also have the exact needs we have as Marine powers without carrier ability. And Sweden since after the Baltics got in they are a second line country.

In 30 years we will have new markets but not many. Indonesia, Egypt, Thaliand, Brasil for example

Plus F-35 users but they will be too small for the Tempest or be too much in the frontline for Tempest characteristics.
France and India in a program, now that would be really amusing to watch, they would both butt heads all day long, talk about the blind leading the blind....
I think they'd be perfect. Bribe givers in business with bribe takers. Match made in heaven. Nuclear capable, aircraft carrier capable. We don't care who you bomb, just pay us the royalties.

And this "missing 5 billion" is around 2% of the UKs 10 year equipment budget. It's 5,000 civil servants' wages and overheads for a decade.
We will see, I'm sure the Labour party have already cautioned the government about any sneaky signing up early, by the back channels of course!

The Tories must be sorely tempted to land that bill with Labour and dare them to try and cancel it!

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

mrclark303 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 11:56
SD67 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 10:51
mrclark303 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 23:46
Meriv9 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 21:51 Everyone that could order a 6th generation is in the team making process.

As by now hypothesis since they keep changing

Germany <- Korea -> UAE as the latest news

( UK + ITA + JAP ) <- KSA

France -> India (this is my hypothesis and all starting from SCAF not going very far)

NGAD+ Israel since the KSA would get the Tempest, perfect excuse for the Israeli

Wanna bet that as soon as the Ukraine war ends the Russians and Chinese will work together?

Who is left outside?

Sweden
Spain
F-35 Users:
Canada
EU users (Finland, Norway, Poland, Belgium,Denmark, Swiss)
Australia
Singapore.

IMHO who we could bring over to Tempest team is Australians, since they also have the exact needs we have as Marine powers without carrier ability. And Sweden since after the Baltics got in they are a second line country.

In 30 years we will have new markets but not many. Indonesia, Egypt, Thaliand, Brasil for example

Plus F-35 users but they will be too small for the Tempest or be too much in the frontline for Tempest characteristics.
France and India in a program, now that would be really amusing to watch, they would both butt heads all day long, talk about the blind leading the blind....
I think they'd be perfect. Bribe givers in business with bribe takers. Match made in heaven. Nuclear capable, aircraft carrier capable. We don't care who you bomb, just pay us the royalties.

And this "missing 5 billion" is around 2% of the UKs 10 year equipment budget. It's 5,000 civil servants' wages and overheads for a decade.
We will see, I'm sure the Labour party have already cautioned the government about any sneaky signing up early, by the back channels of course!

The Tories must be sorely tempted to land that bill with Labour and dare them to try and cancel it!
If labor have done that they are behaving illegally. Until the government is in Purdah (ie once the election is announced) they can sign any contract they want. example : Brown and the Aircraft carriers, Brown and the Bank Bailouts. We're still dealing wit the AIrtanker 25 year PFI
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by mrclark303 »

SD67 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 12:06
mrclark303 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 11:56
SD67 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 10:51
mrclark303 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 23:46
Meriv9 wrote: 17 Sep 2023, 21:51 Everyone that could order a 6th generation is in the team making process.

As by now hypothesis since they keep changing

Germany <- Korea -> UAE as the latest news

( UK + ITA + JAP ) <- KSA

France -> India (this is my hypothesis and all starting from SCAF not going very far)

NGAD+ Israel since the KSA would get the Tempest, perfect excuse for the Israeli

Wanna bet that as soon as the Ukraine war ends the Russians and Chinese will work together?

Who is left outside?

Sweden
Spain
F-35 Users:
Canada
EU users (Finland, Norway, Poland, Belgium,Denmark, Swiss)
Australia
Singapore.

IMHO who we could bring over to Tempest team is Australians, since they also have the exact needs we have as Marine powers without carrier ability. And Sweden since after the Baltics got in they are a second line country.

In 30 years we will have new markets but not many. Indonesia, Egypt, Thaliand, Brasil for example

Plus F-35 users but they will be too small for the Tempest or be too much in the frontline for Tempest characteristics.
France and India in a program, now that would be really amusing to watch, they would both butt heads all day long, talk about the blind leading the blind....
I think they'd be perfect. Bribe givers in business with bribe takers. Match made in heaven. Nuclear capable, aircraft carrier capable. We don't care who you bomb, just pay us the royalties.

And this "missing 5 billion" is around 2% of the UKs 10 year equipment budget. It's 5,000 civil servants' wages and overheads for a decade.
We will see, I'm sure the Labour party have already cautioned the government about any sneaky signing up early, by the back channels of course!

The Tories must be sorely tempted to land that bill with Labour and dare them to try and cancel it!
If labor have done that they are behaving illegally. Until the government is in Purdah (ie once the election is announced) they can sign any contract they want. example : Brown and the Aircraft carriers, Brown and the Bank Bailouts. We're still dealing wit the AIrtanker 25 year PFI
Of course, what should be happening is a cross party concesus on GCAP. It's incredibly important for so many excellent reasons.

By the time the next government is finding its feet, the GCAP contract will be negotiated, fixed and with all parties going into signing imminent.

Unless they go full TSR2 and pull the plug at the 11th hour, with the massive fallout that follows, they will be strongly compelled to sign up on a deal they had zero input in.....

I would like to know Labours position on GCAP, if they have one, anyone know??

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mrclark303 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 16:42
Of course, what should be happening is a cross party concesus on GCAP. It's incredibly important for so many excellent reasons.

By the time the next government is finding its feet, the GCAP contract will be negotiated, fixed and with all parties going into signing imminent.

Unless they go full TSR2 and pull the plug at the 11th hour, with the massive fallout that follows, they will be strongly compelled to sign up on a deal they had zero input in.....

I would like to know Labours position on GCAP, if they have one, anyone know??
Definitely there should be cross party consensus. All too often incoming governments scrap projects (not just military) on which a lot of money has been spent.

I doubt that most members of the public have heard of Tempest whereas a lot had heard of the TSR2. I think it was seen as a project of national pride - Britain leads the world etc. I don't get the impression that Keir Starmer is down on defence but if he is elected he will need to contend with UK debt. It's over 100% of GDP now. It was less than 30% in 2002.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ional_debt
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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One hope from me, aside defence, is commitment to HS2.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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new guy wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 18:14 One hope from me, aside defence, is commitment to HS2.
Why? It's the biggest boondoggle going.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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One thing the Australians have done well - cross party consensus on defence. The new labour government may be talking about tweaking Hunter Class numbers but the broad program parameters have cross party upport
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mr.fred wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 19:30
new guy wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 18:14 One hope from me, aside defence, is commitment to HS2.
Why? It's the biggest boondoggle going.
And boondoggleing it into nothing with be 10x more boondoggleing.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Spitfire9 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 17:40
mrclark303 wrote: 18 Sep 2023, 16:42
Of course, what should be happening is a cross party concesus on GCAP. It's incredibly important for so many excellent reasons.

By the time the next government is finding its feet, the GCAP contract will be negotiated, fixed and with all parties going into signing imminent.

Unless they go full TSR2 and pull the plug at the 11th hour, with the massive fallout that follows, they will be strongly compelled to sign up on a deal they had zero input in.....

I would like to know Labours position on GCAP, if they have one, anyone know??
Definitely there should be cross party consensus. All too often incoming governments scrap projects (not just military) on which a lot of money has been spent.

I doubt that most members of the public have heard of Tempest whereas a lot had heard of the TSR2. I think it was seen as a project of national pride - Britain leads the world etc. I don't get the impression that Keir Starmer is down on defence but if he is elected he will need to contend with UK debt. It's over 100% of GDP now. It was less than 30% in 2002.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ional_debt
It's a horrifying statistic and a 40 billion pound fighter project won't be an easy sell to the champagne socialist Islington elite, who call the shots in the Labour party these days.

That green evangelical ULEZ embracing politburo, wields as much power as the Unions do, arguably they now have more influence ....

I can see London Labour and the Unions butting heads early in the next parliament, with a brand new raft of strikes to go with it.....

I

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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I think it's going to be like the 1970s except the music and drugs won't be as good

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Sounds like Justin Bronk was on a soapbox at DSEI:



I've gone on a twitter rant about this, which I'll save you good people from. However I cannot see a single positive argument for this, that is unless you have some Lockheed stock.

Like so many other things

Two questions to those who might agree with this proposal:

1) What in the history of JCA/FCBA/JSF/UK F-35 procurement history makes you think you can trust US promises for British industrial content, weapons and sensor integration (considering we never even got the source code we've been demanding since 2005/6)?

2) Why would the US want to make us a 'special' offer which every other single F-35 customer planning future purchases will want too?
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Jensy wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 17:50 Sounds like Justin Bronk was on a soapbox at DSEI:

I feel like NL is only reporting this because it is a narrative they have not heard before, and thus are unfamiliar for opposing arguments.

It is also very weird for NL to be posting this, I have never seen them post anything not naval related, strictly so.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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new guy wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 17:59 I feel like NL is only reporting this because it is a narrative they have not heard before, and thus are unfamiliar for opposing arguments.

It is also very weird for NL to be posting this, I have never seen them post anything not naval related, strictly so.
I presume the naval angle is that we should only operate F-35B. But even that doesn't make any sense. It's the most expensive and least capable variant by a country mile and its constraints are the opposite of our future priorities.

Not necessarily NL's outlook, but the only one I could see that would barely pass in a pub, much less in front of an informed audience at the world's premier defence trade show.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Coming from the other angle

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... hter-jets/

I really like this quote

“There will always be a HQ as an administrative central point to coordinate all, and it makes sense to have it in the UK. But the bottom line is it’s all still under design.”

Starting to sound very real, and integrated as a single industrial organisation
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Coming from the other angle

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... hter-jets/

I really like this quote

“There will always be a HQ as an administrative central point to coordinate all, and it makes sense to have it in the UK. But the bottom line is it’s all still under design.”

Starting to sound very real, and integrated as a single industrial organisation
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Jensy wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 18:08
new guy wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 17:59 I feel like NL is only reporting this because it is a narrative they have not heard before, and thus are unfamiliar for opposing arguments.

It is also very weird for NL to be posting this, I have never seen them post anything not naval related, strictly so.
I presume the naval angle is that we should only operate F-35B. But even that doesn't make any sense. It's the most expensive and least capable variant by a country mile and its constraints are the opposite of our future priorities.

Not necessarily NL's outlook, but the only one I could see that would barely pass in a pub, much less in front of an informed audience at the world's premier defence trade show.
I just found it weird that NL has posted this considering I have never seen them talk about anything non-naval, religously so. This is all seperated.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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SD67 wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 18:36 Starting to sound very real, and integrated as a single industrial organisation
Just need to find the money now!

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Jensy wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 17:50 Sounds like Justin Bronk was on a soapbox at DSEI:



I've gone on a twitter rant about this, which I'll save you good people from. However I cannot see a single positive argument for this, that is unless you have some Lockheed stock.

Like so many other things

Two questions to those who might agree with this proposal:

1) What in the history of JCA/FCBA/JSF/UK F-35 procurement history makes you think you can trust US promises for British industrial content, weapons and sensor integration (considering we never even got the source code we've been demanding since 2005/6)?

2) Why would the US want to make us a 'special' offer which every other single F-35 customer planning future purchases will want too?
I totally agree, however, we all know F35A is waiting in the wings as the runner up prize if GCAP gets cancelled....

The nonsense about integrating UK technology is just that, nonsense!

Stray too far from the path and the development costs to the UK of a hypothetical 'F35UK would rapidly get out of control and probably end up costing us the same as our potential contribution to GCAP!

That said, LM would love to give us UK assembly and some increased content (30%), plus some vague promises of further UK industrial input in block 5/6 pushing forward for us to sign up for 150 F35A's.

Take the UK out as a competitor and GCAP collapses and it guarantees US influence for decades to come.

Glass half full, F35A certainly falls short of the proposed GCAP machine in every way, but it's by no means a slouch and in its fully developed block 4 form will be highly capable.

The RAF would still 'win', with a capable future force, but let's all keep our fingers crossed for Tempest!!
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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And from Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/ ... ect-hq-uk/

The headquarters will be in Britain, but for the sake of balance, someone from Japan could head it," said one of the sources, all of whom asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

"Discussion about the headquarters is ongoing and we are unable to comment on the location," Japan's defense procurement agency said in an email. A development framework for the fighter would be established in the next fiscal year, it added.

Officials at the Italian defense ministry were unavailable for comment. Reuters in March reported that Italy was set to pay for about a fifth of the overall development cost, which the country's government dismissed as "speculative".
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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mrclark303 wrote: 21 Sep 2023, 20:16 I totally agree, however, we all know F35A is waiting in the wings as the runner up prize if GCAP gets cancelled....

The nonsense about integrating UK technology is just that, nonsense!

Stray too far from the path and the development costs to the UK of a hypothetical 'F35UK would rapidly get out of control and probably end up costing us the same as our potential contribution to GCAP!

That said, LM would love to give us UK assembly and some increased content (30%), plus some vague promises of further UK industrial input in block 5/6 pushing forward for us to sign up for 150 F35A's.

Take the UK out as a competitor and GCAP collapses and it guarantees US influence for decades to come.

Glass half full, F35A certainly falls short of the proposed GCAP machine in every way, but it's by no means a slouch and in its fully developed block 4 form will be highly capable.

The RAF would still 'win', with a capable future force, but let's all keep our fingers crossed for Tempest!!
I'd say if we don't pursue GCAP, then logically we should pursue the cheapest possible option. Which as you say would be the A model, rather than any fantasy -K or -UK variant.

As much as I'd love to see an increased workshare, we'd be lucky to get back to 15%.

We're down to the seventh largest fast jet fleet in Europe (see the article I posted in the Tiffy thread yesterday). How can any foreign supplier take us seriously when we've allowed our air force to be hollowed out almost completely over the last decade and a half?
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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I'd say the very easy answer to this conundrum is to not cancel GCAP. Then the whole hypothetical vanishes like mist.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Jensy wrote: 22 Sep 2023, 08:51 How can any foreign supplier take us seriously when we've allowed our air force to be hollowed out almost completely over the last decade and a half?
Too true.

Perhaps HMG is using the F35b funding to kickstart GCAP which admittedly has a certain rationale.

Essentially cap the F35b at 48 and channel the remaining funds into GCAP with a plan B to increase both F35 A and B procurement if Tempest fails.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

I would only say this is tweet is coming from a channel/person/organisation that if you have been around long enough started as “save the RN”. Who at the beginning was very vocal in wanting the RAF disbanded and used its media presence to cheerlead that line of thinking.

So amplifying stories around what it would see as a program that will curtail funding for other projects it champions in the next decade would be on form. Much like it was with it and others position on typhoon.
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