Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[mrclark303]

The Collaboration Agreement is set to boost ongoing discussions, determining long-term working arrangements. It will also help refine the concept and capability prerequisites for the forthcoming combat aircraft

It all sounds brilliant but I just don’t understand the funding model yet.

The costs to enter production are going to be colossal.

I've hypothersised a 15 billion Tempest contribution from the UK and I've certainly seen nothing to suggest that's not a realistic figure.

Also the fast paced movement of the programme will mean a 'very steep' investment curve, with the bulk of the cash spent in the first 8 years...

How the next government decide to finance this will be very interesting....

All players will have to sign the contract in 2025, stipulating numbers for each nation and ring fenced guaranteed funding in place.

It's the only way this can be accomplished in the 10 time scale.

No signitory can be allowed to drag their feet and withhold funding or slow down their engineering project responsibilities in any way, if this happens, the costs will rapidly spin out of control.

[Meriv9]

I suspect there will be a few "pots" involved in the funding. The Italians are good at this - getting their aid budget to pay for some of their amphibs.

I think that was the role of Sweden, giving equal grounds as the FCAS to EU funds. So their lacking of partecipation even just nominally is bad.

[mrclark303]

I suspect there will be a few "pots" involved in the funding. The Italians are good at this - getting their aid budget to pay for some of their amphibs.

I think that was the role of Sweden, giving equal grounds as the FCAS to EU funds. So their lacking of partecipation even just nominally is bad.

We will all know soon Meriv, this is moving a quite the pace....

[Caribbean]

We will all know soon Meriv, this is moving a quite the pace....

Has anybody else noticed that a lot of projects all seem to have suddenly shifted gear? Is this because of the additional funds filtering through, or has HMG actually woken up to the possible dangers of Russian/ Chinese imperialism

Apologies for going off topic

[Poiuytrewq]

We will all know soon Meriv, this is moving a quite the pace....

Has anybody else noticed that a lot of projects all seem to have suddenly shifted gear? Is this because of the additional funds filtering through, or has HMG actually woken up to the possible dangers of Russian/ Chinese imperialism

Apologies for going off topic

Could it just be due to the increased ratio of capital expenditure vs operating costs?

The big increases in capital expenditure are only due to start coming in from this year onwards.

[SD67]

We will all know soon Meriv, this is moving a quite the pace....

Has anybody else noticed that a lot of projects all seem to have suddenly shifted gear? Is this because of the additional funds filtering through, or has HMG actually woken up to the possible dangers of Russian/ Chinese imperialism

Apologies for going off topic

Could it just be due to the increased ratio of capital expenditure vs operating costs?

The big increases in capital expenditure are only due to start coming in from this year onwards.

Or locking in a future government ....it's easy to commit funds that someone else has to raise

(cynical me)

[zavve]

I think that was the role of Sweden, giving equal grounds as the FCAS to EU funds. So their lacking of partecipation even just nominally is bad.

I'm still holding out hope for Swedish participation, especially since the Gvmt has announced a 28%!!! increase in defence spending for next year to 2.1% of GDP. Considering that just a few years ago we were barely hitting 1.2% of GDP this is a very substantial increase in funding. Still, the most likely purchase is new Gripen E's.

[Meriv9]

I think that was the role of Sweden, giving equal grounds as the FCAS to EU funds. So their lacking of partecipation even just nominally is bad.

I'm still holding out hope for Swedish participation, especially since the Gvmt has announced a 28%!!! increase in defence spending for next year to 2.1% of GDP. Considering that just a few years ago we were barely hitting 1.2% of GDP this is a very substantial increase in funding. Still, the most likely purchase is new Gripen E's.

Zavve on french forums they constantly write(fantasy?) that Sweden is on the SCAF on their side. Any source for this?

P.s. for the rest the Germans with Airbus are connecting with the Koreans

https://air-cosmos.com/article/defense- ... tion-66214

And Koreans are connecting with the UAE for KF-21

https://n.news.naver.com/article/014/0005072794

[zavve]

Zavve on french forums they constantly write(fantasy?) that Sweden is on the SCAF on their side. Any source for this?

Well, I can't rule anything out but I've heard nothing about it from Swedish forums or media. I would be inclined to believe that it is a fantasy as of right now.

[mrclark303]

Zavve on french forums they constantly write(fantasy?) that Sweden is on the SCAF on their side. Any source for this?

Well, I can't rule anything out but I've heard nothing about it from Swedish forums or media. I would be inclined to believe that it is a fantasy as of right now.

I can't see it, I don't think the Swedish will be interested in being browbeaten and dictated to by the French.

[TheLoneRanger]

I think that was the role of Sweden, giving equal grounds as the FCAS to EU funds. So their lacking of partecipation even just nominally is bad.

I'm still holding out hope for Swedish participation, especially since the Gvmt has announced a 28%!!! increase in defence spending for next year to 2.1% of GDP. Considering that just a few years ago we were barely hitting 1.2% of GDP this is a very substantial increase in funding. Still, the most likely purchase is new Gripen E's.

Zavve on french forums they constantly write(fantasy?) that Sweden is on the SCAF on their side. Any source for this?

P.s. for the rest the Germans with Airbus are connecting with the Koreans

https://air-cosmos.com/article/defense- ... tion-66214

And Koreans are connecting with the UAE for KF-21

https://n.news.naver.com/article/014/0005072794

What will SCAF offer Sweden, that its original participation in Tempest failed to deliver? Put simply, Sweden has its own unique set of requirements that neither Tempest, or SCAF can fulfill as the next generation airframe for their airforce.

Sweden did not want to finance its participation in Tempest, it was hoping to simply have "its industry" participate on commerncial times/material/IP basis with no input from Swedish Tax payers and no commitment to purchase airframes. That is why their participation came to an end, and I dont see anything changing where sweden would look to change those variables that would favour it joining SCAF ..

News is not logical so i think it is wrong ...

[Spitfire9]

Zavve on french forums they constantly write(fantasy?) that Sweden is on the SCAF on their side. Any source for this?

P.s. for the rest the Germans with Airbus are connecting with the Koreans

https://air-cosmos.com/article/defense- ... tion-66214

And Koreans are connecting with the UAE for KF-21

https://n.news.naver.com/article/014/0005072794

What will SCAF offer Sweden, that its original participation in Tempest failed to deliver? Put simply, Sweden has its own unique set of requirements that neither Tempest, or SCAF can fulfill as the next generation airframe for their airforce.

Sweden did not want to finance its participation in Tempest, it was hoping to simply have "its industry" participate on commerncial times/material/IP basis with no input from Swedish Tax payers and no commitment to purchase airframes. That is why their participation came to an end, and I dont see anything changing where sweden would look to change those variables that would favour it joining SCAF ..

News is not logical so i think it is wrong ...

Planning for the future growth of their industry, I could see South Korea investing in involvement in a 6G programme. I suspect that KF-21 will sell well as a replacement for 4G fighters as they come to the end of their services lives, particularly to countries unable to afford F-35 or excluded from purchase. GCAP might have done well to woo South Korea into an association since KAI looks to be an efficient developer and constructor.

I think I see Sweden's position on Tempest - does not want to fork out large sums being involved in paying for Tempest development if instead it can contribute and make a profit for its own industry, too.

[Meriv9]

then we need to find another EU partner for EU funds.

If the Germans go with the Koreans and the SCAF is no more we could get Spain inside Tempest.

Merging (or acquiring) Indra System making Leonardo a true Electronics continental player (ITA+UK+ GER with Hensoldt + SPA with Indra)

[inch]

I can't see SCAF program ending tbh,too important for the European dream of France/Germany future defence industry going forwards Germany will just have to tow the French line on the fighter and get something back on the unmanned side of things if I'm not wrong,, could it be I can't read the article as not in English but could the Germans be giving the French a shot across the bow to keep it real with Germany on the SCAF program,or Germany saying you never know France we might team Up with S Korea? Like I said not read the article and could be wildly off , cheers

[Poiuytrewq]

Sweden did not want to finance its participation in Tempest, it was hoping to simply have "its industry" participate on commerncial times/material/IP basis with no input from Swedish Tax payers and no commitment to purchase airframes.

So where is the funding coming from? Clearly the Swede’s don’t feel like writing a cheque.

To get Tempest to production another 2-3 G20 sized partner countries will need to be added. All submitting a similar amount of funding. The numbers just don’t add up otherwise.

It looks like a good idea but without the ability to secure the funding to progress it. Hope it happens but I remain sceptical.

[dmereifield]

the 3rd, 5th/6th and 8th/9th largest economies, with massive defence budgets and highly skilled defence industries, can do it if they want to. They certainly don't need 2-3 more G20 economies to make the numbers add up

[mrclark303]

the 3rd, 5th/6th and 8th/9th largest economies, with massive defence budgets and highly skilled defence industries, can do it if they want to. They certainly don't need 2-3 more G20 economies to make the numbers add up

I think of we can bring in Saudi Arabia and they inject another 5 billion, we will have enough to launch.

I think 40 billion is a realistic programme cost

15 billion each Japan and the UK

5 billion each Italy and Saudi Arabia.

The UK is going to have to dig very deep to find 15 billion, no doubt about it......

[Spitfire9]

I think of we can bring in Saudi Arabia and they inject another 5 billion, we will have enough to launch.

I think 40 billion is a realistic programme cost

15 billion each Japan and the UK

5 billion each Italy and Saudi Arabia.

The UK is going to have to dig very deep to find 15 billion, no doubt about it......

Any chance of the various MOD's and OEM's improving their performance to pare down costs while getting the same result? I know it's a heretical thing to ask but if there are 10%-20% efficiencies there to be had it seems a shame to cancel because the projected programme cost is 10%-20% more than governments are prepared to pay.

Over in the Typhoon thread someone drew attention to a BAE Systems release:

The Eurofighter Typhoon is one of the most successful UK defence programmes, bringing export sales worth double the £12 billion invested by the UK Government, with the potential for more to come.

I think that export revenues could have been much higher if the project had been better managed internationally (eg Germany not holding things up as it did, absurd wastes of money, the RAF 'no cannon needed' fiasco, reported to have cost £50 million, the multiple varieties and cost duplication of AESA et al.) If the project had been better managed by all concerned it might have cost a lot less to UK govt to equip the RAF with a very good fighter. and achieved much higher export sales. Unfortunately the market for Tempest and FCAS will be very restricted in comparison but nevertheless UK govt would get more back if it were developed and produced on a cost-competitive basis. If it is not FCAS will get some of the orders that GCAP would otherwise have got.

[Meriv9]

Everyone that could order a 6th generation is in the team making process.

As by now hypothesis since they keep changing

Germany <- Korea -> UAE as the latest news

( UK + ITA + JAP ) <- KSA

France -> India (this is my hypothesis and all starting from SCAF not going very far)

NGAD+ Israel since the KSA would get the Tempest, perfect excuse for the Israeli

Wanna bet that as soon as the Ukraine war ends the Russians and Chinese will work together?

Who is left outside?

Sweden
Spain
F-35 Users:
Canada
EU users (Finland, Norway, Poland, Belgium,Denmark, Swiss)
Australia
Singapore.

IMHO who we could bring over to Tempest team is Australians, since they also have the exact needs we have as Marine powers without carrier ability. And Sweden since after the Baltics got in they are a second line country.

In 30 years we will have new markets but not many. Indonesia, Egypt, Thaliand, Brasil for example

Plus F-35 users but they will be too small for the Tempest or be too much in the frontline for Tempest characteristics.

[new guy]

for many nations F-35 will be their 6th gen, all be it with a few more block 4 moments.
Many nations also don't have a threat to require tempest or ever F-35, look Brasil. Gripen is already more than enough for there.

[mrclark303]

for many nations F-35 will be their 6th gen, all be it with a few more block 4 moments.
Many nations also don't have a threat to require tempest or ever F-35, look Brasil. Gripen is already more than enough for there.

Indeed, Gripen is actually overkill, it's streets ahead of anything in Latin America and an excellent choice for Brazil.

[mrclark303]

Everyone that could order a 6th generation is in the team making process.

As by now hypothesis since they keep changing

Germany <- Korea -> UAE as the latest news

( UK + ITA + JAP ) <- KSA

France -> India (this is my hypothesis and all starting from SCAF not going very far)

NGAD+ Israel since the KSA would get the Tempest, perfect excuse for the Israeli

Wanna bet that as soon as the Ukraine war ends the Russians and Chinese will work together?

Who is left outside?

Sweden
Spain
F-35 Users:
Canada
EU users (Finland, Norway, Poland, Belgium,Denmark, Swiss)
Australia
Singapore.

IMHO who we could bring over to Tempest team is Australians, since they also have the exact needs we have as Marine powers without carrier ability. And Sweden since after the Baltics got in they are a second line country.

In 30 years we will have new markets but not many. Indonesia, Egypt, Thaliand, Brasil for example

Plus F-35 users but they will be too small for the Tempest or be too much in the frontline for Tempest characteristics.

France and India in a programme, now that would be really amusing to watch, they would both butt heads all day long, talk about the blind leading the blind....

[Poiuytrewq]

the 3rd, 5th/6th and 8th/9th largest economies, with massive defence budgets and highly skilled defence industries, can do it if they want to. They certainly don't need 2-3 more G20 economies to make the numbers add up

Completely disagree.

Lots of optimism with Tempest but very little of the overall cost has been spent yet. Where is Britain or Italy getting £15bn-£20bn each to fund the development?

The F35 development costs is hundreds of billions £ and it’s hardly been plain sailing.

I want the programme to be a roaring success but as of yet I just can’t see were the funding is coming from to fully develop it and start production.

[mrclark303]

I think of we can bring in Saudi Arabia and they inject another 5 billion, we will have enough to launch.

I think 40 billion is a realistic programme cost

15 billion each Japan and the UK

5 billion each Italy and Saudi Arabia.

The UK is going to have to dig very deep to find 15 billion, no doubt about it......

Any chance of the various MOD's and OEM's improving their performance to pare down costs while getting the same result? I know it's a heretical thing to ask but if there are 10%-20% efficiencies there to be had it seems a shame to cancel because the projected programme cost is 10%-20% more than governments are prepared to pay.

Over in the Typhoon thread someone drew attention to a BAE Systems release:

The Eurofighter Typhoon is one of the most successful UK defence programmes, bringing export sales worth double the £12 billion invested by the UK Government, with the potential for more to come.

I think that export revenues could have been much higher if the project had been better managed internationally (eg Germany not holding things up as it did, absurd wastes of money, the RAF 'no cannon needed' fiasco, reported to have cost £50 million, the multiple varieties and cost duplication of AESA et al.) If the project had been better managed by all concerned it might have cost a lot less to UK govt to equip the RAF with a very good fighter. and achieved much higher export sales. Unfortunately the market for Tempest and FCAS will be very restricted in comparison but nevertheless UK govt would get more back if it were developed and produced on a cost-competitive basis. If it is not FCAS will get some of the orders that GCAP would otherwise have got.

Reducing costs is always the aim. Let's take the key factors into account here though.

Latest thoughts seem to indicate that GCAP will be a 'very large' fighter, bigger than F22 in fact!

New low observable 3D printed structure airframe technology
New variable cycle engine tech
New avionics tech, encompassing the very latest cutting edge British and Japanese technology, radar arrays (and other sensors) distributed around the airframe.
New Weapon systems, including direct energy systems in time.

It's one hell of a tall order....


This is unashamedly being aimed at a total kick the door down solution, an absolutely first tier air dominance platform, with deep strike capability, all complete within 10 years.

That's a massive, daunting and extremely expensive undertaking no matter how you cut the cards, I personally think we will be lucky to keep within 40 billion.....

Any delays, for any reason and costs will start to spin out of control....

[Poiuytrewq]

the 3rd, 5th/6th and 8th/9th largest economies, with massive defence budgets and highly skilled defence industries, can do it if they want to. They certainly don't need 2-3 more G20 economies to make the numbers add up

Completely disagree.

Lots of optimism with Tempest but very little of the overall cost has been spent yet. Where is Britain or Italy getting £15bn-£20bn each to fund the development?

The F35 development costs is hundreds of billions £ and it’s hardly been plain sailing.

I want the programme to be a roaring success but as of yet I just can’t see were the funding is coming from to fully develop it and start production.

It's a worry mate, there's currently a black hole in defence spending, with the MOD in debt.

GCAP spending will be very heavily weighted into the first 8 years, it can't be drip fed, each country will have to sign a cast iron unbreakable contract, to ensure none are in a position to fatally cripple the programme, when it's started.

I expect a guaranteed airframe buy and investment allocation by each country, at contract signature too.

We won't have long to wait, by 2025 we will be contractually locked in, or it will be cancelled for an F35A buy by all three countries.

The next government will have to sign the cheque!