Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[Meriv9]

Saudi Arabia want in on the ground floor with this new technology, they see an opportunity to divest themselves of foreign engineers and do things largely in house with their own people.

Thats what they want, we make a lower offer as I proposed.

Let see until which point they want to pay.

At certain moment even the mere quantity of money is a quality itself.

You are closing a door without knowing what the other part wants to offer.

[Meriv9]

P.s. and in a OT way we also benefit from a tech development of Saudi Arabia.

Lets remember how Nasser secularism triggered a Wahhabism reaction in the country.

A Theocracy can work in an undeveloped economy, it won't survive the development of an industrial base (and thus more power to the lower classes) and service sector (a more educated population). I don't believe Wahhbism and country development can coexist in the long term. So helping the dismiss of the main problematic religion denomination for us Europeans is a big plus that will greatly benefit us in an indirect way.

[mrclark303]

P.s. and in a OT way we also benefit from a tech development of Saudi Arabia.

Lets remember how Nasser secularism triggered a Wahhabism reaction in the country.

A Theocracy can work in an undeveloped economy, it won't survive the development of an industrial base (and thus more power to the lower classes) and service sector (a more educated population). I don't believe Wahhbism and country development can coexist in the long term. So helping the dismiss of the main problematic religion denomination for us Europeans is a big plus that will greatly benefit us in an indirect way.

You certainly raise an interesting hypothesis Meriv, Saudi Arabia sits at a crossroads, economic diversification has to happen as the international Pol industry begins to slowly contract.

As you say, this process will begin to alter the social order, bit by bit.

On a wider Tempest note, if Saudi Arabia do become a partner and order 48, you could expect a further batch
(or batches) to start replacing Typhoon and older F15's.

Kuwait will probably follow suit with a good chance of a sale to the UAE too.

Tempests potential to penetrate sophisticated Air defence systems and likely impressive (based on size) ROA will be a major sales point in the Gulf region.

The French will find the Germans an Albatross around their necks, dragging them backwards and interfering with all the prospective sales prospects.

There is potential to sell hundreds to the Gulf region, reducing the unit costs for everyone and recovering some of the 40 odd billion of programme capital costs.

[SD67]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

You’ve never been involved with an aircraft development program have you.

You only contract organisations that add something specific to its technical development you don’t add countries that add nothing but require hand holding to dilute your resource.

The Saudis offer nothing, there not to be trusted and are lazy. All they do is hire western contractors on a big pay day to do the work for them.

They are not required to make the aircraft a commercial success or otherwise. Your theoretical costing are total nonsense and simply a vehicle for your buy American narrative.

If Sweden can develop a highly capable fighter a/c on their own and make it viable commercially. Then so can the U.K. Japan and Italy.

I will confidently say 40 billion for the programme, interesting to hear your cost point and we will see who's right before long.....

I've been involved with program management for many years SW1, I do know a thing or two, yes, Saudi money may prove critical to the success of Tempest.

Using Gripen as a good example of a 'successful' military aircraft programme unfortunately shows you have little to no idea regarding successful international programme management.

40 billion sounds about right. 37.5% of 40 is 15 for a UK contribution.
Around 5 of that will have already been spent by Maingate. So we're looking at a further UK contribution of 1 to 1.5 billion and a year from 2025 and the early 2030s.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... o_2032.pdf page 25

Within the context of a 230 billion spend in the current 10 year equipment plan of which 36billion is Air this does not seem particularly out of the ordinary. Also there is 34 billion of "other" in the plan, dare say some of that may be tempest enablers.

The actual aircraft purchase then occur outside the current 10 year horizon -new budget, new money.

[mrclark303]

Hopefully the Japanese stick to there guns and make sure Saudi are no where near it.

Well, we certainly don't want to risk making it a commercial success SW1, so best keep the nasty Saudi's out....

Come to think about it, the Japanese were unfathomably cruel during the war and the Italians were on their side!!!!!

Best keep Japan and Italy out too.....

But hang on, let's not forget the slave trade and British empire, best just cancel it, looks like no one passes your moral values tests unfortunately.🫣🫣

You’ve never been involved with an aircraft development program have you.

You only contract organisations that add something specific to its technical development you don’t add countries that add nothing but require hand holding to dilute your resource.

The Saudis offer nothing, there not to be trusted and are lazy. All they do is hire western contractors on a big pay day to do the work for them.

They are not required to make the aircraft a commercial success or otherwise. Your theoretical costing are total nonsense and simply a vehicle for your buy American narrative.

If Sweden can develop a highly capable fighter a/c on their own and make it viable commercially. Then so can the U.K. Japan and Italy.

I will confidently say 40 billion for the programme, interesting to hear your cost point and we will see who's right before long.....

I've been involved with program management for many years SW1, I do know a thing or two, yes, Saudi money may prove critical to the success of Tempest.

Using Gripen as a good example of a 'successful' military aircraft programme unfortunately shows you have little to no idea regarding successful international programme management.

40 billion sounds about right. 37.5% of 40 is 15 for a UK contribution.
Around 5 of that will have already been spent by Maingate. So we're looking at a further UK contribution of 1 to 1.5 billion and a year from 2025 and the early 2030s.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... o_2032.pdf page 25

Within the context of a 230 billion spend in the current 10 year equipment plan of which 36billion is Air this does not seem particularly out of the ordinary. Also there is 34 billion of "other" in the plan, dare say some of that may be tempest enablers.

The actual aircraft purchase then occur outside the current 10 year horizon -new budget, new money.

It will be interesting see, I think a ring fenced 2 billion is allocated to maingate in 2025.

This is primarily for the technology demonstrator being assembled at Warton, stress testing of 3d printed components etc.

The key contractors will likely be contributing to the technology development at 'near cost' too, to try and get a seat on the gravey train!

The governments of all three countries will have to be convinced that this revolutionary build technology is actually viable.

The main difference between Typhoon and Tempest programmes will be the comparative speed of development progression.

Tempest promises to rewrite the possibilities, with a new everything!

New build technology, incorporating advanced 3d printed polymers and advanced new composite structures.

Brand new propulsion and power generation architecture, powering brand new avionics and weapon systems.

All compressed into a 10 year design, development and delivery to the squadrons time frame....

So, let's take our 10 billion ( probably 15), the vast majority will be spent in the first 6/8 years, in an almost vertical spending curve, that's going to look like an inverted 'V'!!!!

That's going to be 'problematic' for both the UK and Italy...

[SD67]

The Italians will be fine IMHO. If the Northern Italian Industrial Aristocracy want it to happen, it will happen. It'll be a national tech / prestige showcase like Ferarri Ducati and Riva with 50 years of industrial spin offs, they get it.

[new guy]

It's a longshot in the extreme, but this is another consideration for whether you'd want Gulf States involved with something as crucial and sensitive as GCAP development:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/busi ... index.html

[SW1]

It's a longshot in the extreme, but this is another consideration for whether you'd want Gulf States involved with something as crucial and sensitive as GCAP development:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/busi ... index.html

Exactly not to be trusted

[mrclark303]

It's a longshot in the extreme, but this is another consideration for whether you'd want Gulf States involved with something as crucial and sensitive as GCAP development:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/busi ... index.html

Exactly not to be trusted

Connected to flogging POL at an advantageous rate, not exactly a 'shocking' news story, you noticed this didn't even send a ripple through the Americans who sell the Saudis masses of high tech gear.

Keep the Saudis out of Tempest and they will simply switch and buy US or French, to the detriment of the GCAP alliance.

It won't make a jot of different to regional geopolitics, but a potentially big difference to jobs at Warton.

[ThreeHeadedLion]

It's a longshot in the extreme, but this is another consideration for whether you'd want Gulf States involved with something as crucial and sensitive as GCAP development:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/busi ... index.html

No point holding this against the Saudis and the Emiratis. Their trade is now mostly oriented eastwards and it is natural for them to increase diplomacy with their major customers. Not to mention the fact that cheap Russian oil has handed immense negotiating leverage to China and India in the oil markets.

It is all the more reason to increase the security engagement with the Saudis. If the west decides to vacate that space the Chinese and Russians will only be to happy to take over.

[SW1]

It's a longshot in the extreme, but this is another consideration for whether you'd want Gulf States involved with something as crucial and sensitive as GCAP development:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/busi ... index.html

Exactly not to be trusted

Connected to flogging POL at an advantageous rate, not exactly a 'shocking' news story, you noticed this didn't even send a ripple through the Americans who sell the Saudis masses of high tech gear.

Keep the Saudis out of Tempest and they will simply switch and buy US or French, to the detriment of the GCAP alliance.

It won't make a jot of different to regional geopolitics, but a potentially big difference to jobs at Warton.

America is run by an incompetent fool who doesn’t know what day of the week it is or probably where he is. I don’t give two flying you know what’s what the Americans or Saudi do or don’t do want or don’t want.

Frankly I’m only interested what’s in our best interests and getting into bed with Saudi on this project isnt one of them. The Uk have sufficient need and resources to keep warton in work and the associated jobs if it wants to along with Italy and Japan.

[Caribbean]

America is run by an incompetent fool who doesn’t know what day of the week it is or probably where he is.

You are aware that there is more than one person in the US Government?

[SW1]

America is run by an incompetent fool who doesn’t know what day of the week it is or probably where he is.

You are aware that there is more than one person in the US Government?

Yes I do, but he makes the decisions

[Meriv9]

Not the deep state?

[serge750]

Connected to flogging POL at an advantageous rate, not exactly a 'shocking' news story, you noticed this didn't even send a ripple through the Americans who sell the Saudis masses of high tech gear.

Keep the Saudis out of Tempest and they will simply switch and buy US or French, to the detriment of the GCAP alliance.

It won't make a jot of different to regional geopolitics, but a potentially big difference to jobs at Warton.

Firstly, let's remember this is an invitation. There's a very good chance it will come to nothing.

The US is highly unlikely to put NGAD up for export for a number of reasons, some of which are the same as F-22:

- Cost, it's going to be closer to B-21 prices than F-22 for the US specified aircraft.

- Congress, not overly keen on selling of their finest technology. Even more relevant in a world with deteriorating global security.

- Numbers, the Yanks are talking about low hundreds of aircraft. The cost and effort of developing an export version, free of sensitive parts, materials and sensors, would be huge and quite possibly impossible.

The French (which for now means SCAF) will face some of the same issues I've listed for the US, plus they've got the Albatross of Germany in their camp. A country that won't even allow further Typhoons to be sold to KSA.

No point holding this against the Saudis and the Emiratis. Their trade is now mostly oriented eastwards and it is natural for them to increase diplomacy with their major customers. Not to mention the fact that cheap Russian oil has handed immense negotiating leverage to China and India in the oil markets.

It is all the more reason to increase the security engagement with the Saudis. If the west decides to vacate that space the Chinese and Russians will only be to happy to take over.

They're sovereign states and are free to align themselves with whatever trading blocs or strategic alliances they wish. Just as we are.

From our perspective, I don't think we should be sharing the bleeding edge of our technology with countries who will blow with the prevailing wind and financial markets.

Though of course the UK managed to singlehandedly hand over the crown jewels of jet propulsion to all and sundry, including the Soviet Union, for a handful of beans. So perhaps history will repeat itself.

I'm increasingly grateful to have Japan involved, as they seem to bring some needed rationality and pragmatism to the project.

[new guy]

[Spitfire9]

The analyst comes up with a possible development cost of $40 billion. That was the figure mentioned for the Japanese FX programme. He mentioned a likely requirement for 300 airframes for Japan, Italy and UK. with Japan possibly procuring a further 100 in the future. That combination puts development cost per airframe produced at $100 million per frame or more.

If the UK government buys into taking Tempest to production and equipping the RAF with it, it is going to face a very large bill. The world has changed - Russia has precipitated an ice-cold war. And the world looks to be changing with Chinese expansionism becoming a serious threat. Will the UK bite the bullet and commit to the programme? I hope so. The alternative? NGAD, which would possibly cost more to procure and more to operate without UK having sovereignty over weapon integration or operational use. Or else FCAS...

[new guy]

Of course were gonna buy tempest, otherwise why would it exist?

[mrclark303]

The analyst comes up with a possible development cost of $40 billion. That was the figure mentioned for the Japanese FX programme. He mentioned a likely requirement for 300 airframes for Japan, Italy and UK. with Japan possibly procuring a further 100 in the future. That combination puts development cost per airframe produced at $100 million per frame or more.

If the UK government buys into taking Tempest to production and equipping the RAF with it, it is going to face a very large bill. The world has changed - Russia has precipitated an ice-cold war. And the world looks to be changing with Chinese expansionism becoming a serious threat. Will the UK bite the bullet and commit to the programme? I hope so. The alternative? NGAD, which would possibly cost more to procure and more to operate without UK having sovereignty over weapon integration or operational use. Or else FCAS...

As previously discussed, I expect the development bill to be between 40 and 50 billion, with the funding curve heavily weighted into the first 8 years, due to the projected speed of development to fielding.

Is it possible, yes, but its certainly not guaranteed. We won't have to wait too long to find out SDSR 2025 is main gate, so it's going to be shape up, or shit out time....

The fall back position is obviously F35A block 4....

Let's keep everything crossed for Tempest!

[Spitfire9]

As previously discussed, I expect the development bill to be between 40 and 50 billion, with the funding curve heavily weighted into the first 8 years, due to the projected speed of development to fielding.

Is it possible, yes, but its certainly not guaranteed. We won't have to wait too long to find out SDSR 2025 is main gate, so it's going to be shape up, or shit out time....

The fall back position is obviously F35A block 4....

Let's keep everything crossed for Tempest!

Why buy more 5G aircraft if we drop our involvement in developing a 6G aircraft? Why not buy a 6G aircraft? I get the impression that Japan is determined to develop a 6G fighter, preferably in conjunction with others but on its own if it has to. Japan joined Tempest because its requirement was close to that of the UK. If Tempest is scrapped we could simply buy whatever it comes up with. Or FCAS or NGAD (if it's for sale to us and not prohibitively expensive).

[serge750]

Would a GCAP without the UK nowhow & less funding be what the UK needs ? would the timeframe match our Typhoon replacement with less funding ? Would that also mean our aircraft industry goes the way of Westland etc is that what is best for our long-term interests
? thinking about not investing in our industry for the long-term ? I can understand not wanting to spend money & hoping for a great product from someone else, but, I think it's a false economy - a partner ship so aligned seems like a great opportunity to invest in our future, the F35 is great etc but weopon integration seems like a nightmare, & working with the Germans & french has not been optimal in the past - we could go alone but that's even more money...Ok, buying of the shelf on a major project saves money but imo there's more downsides long-term

[Spitfire9]

Would a GCAP without the UK nowhow & less funding be what the UK needs ? would the timeframe match our Typhoon replacement with less funding ? Would that also mean our aircraft industry goes the way of Westland etc is that what is best for our long-term interests

There is a demand for more service to be provided by the NHS. The proposed solution is always to increase funding. I have worked for the NHS as a consultant - not the sort with a scalpel but as someone with software and business skills. It is a very inefficient and wasteful organisation IMO. Resistance to change is deeply ingrained. Its answer to its failure to provide more services: carry on as always, resist changing for the better and demand more funding. This approach produces lousy results and will do so indefinitely.

? thinking about not investing in our industry for the long-term ? I can understand not wanting to spend money & hoping for a great product from someone else, but, I think it's a false economy - a partner ship so aligned seems like a great opportunity to invest in our future, the F35 is great etc but weopon integration seems like a nightmare, & working with the Germans & french has not been optimal in the past - we could go alone but that's even more money...Ok, buying of the shelf on a major project saves money but imo there's more downsides long-term

Whether or not we can afford to pay for the development and production of a new fighter is based on what it costs. It seems that the call is always for more funds from the government to get a product that meets RAF requirements. The idea of the aviation industry improving its efficiency to squeeze more out of each pound spent never gets mentioned, just as in the NHS. I have also worked for the military, so I have seen with my own eyes how badly managed parts of it are.

There is the saying that the tax payer will always pay where defence is concerned. The tax payer won't. If the cost is predicted to be too high, the government will not proceed with a project. One way of making sure that UK PLC stops developing and manufacturing advanced military aviation products such as the Tempest is for the British aviation industry to remain as inefficient as it is, rendering development costs higher than they need to be and manufacturing costs also, limiting sales. Remember the Typhoon cannon fiasco? How could it possibly cost a reported £50 million for the RAF to decide to drop the cannon and then reinstate it? BAE must have been laughing all the way to the bank.

Whether or not Tempest gets funded depends to an extent on how efficiently BAE Systems operates. If it does not get the go ahead, we will disappear from the advanced military jet sector except as a sub-contractor offering to work on other countries' projects, won't we?

As a tax payer I don't want to fund the failure of the British MIC. I want to invest in its success.

[Clive F]

Would a GCAP without the UK nowhow & less funding be what the UK needs ? would the timeframe match our Typhoon replacement with less funding ? Would that also mean our aircraft industry goes the way of Westland etc is that what is best for our long-term interests
? thinking about not investing in our industry for the long-term ? I can understand not wanting to spend money & hoping for a great product from someone else, but, I think it's a false economy - a partner ship so aligned seems like a great opportunity to invest in our future, the F35 is great etc but weopon integration seems like a nightmare, & working with the Germans & french has not been optimal in the past - we could go alone but that's even more money...Ok, buying of the shelf on a major project saves money but imo there's more downsides long-term

Going it alone is totally out of the question, we can at an absolute squeeze contribute £15 billion, going it alone will cost in excess of £40 billion, no chance whatsoever.

As I've hypothersised, the Americans will offer UK assembly of advanced block 4 F35A, as an alternative to Tempest. I will bet my house on it in fact....

That could potentially be 'spun' as a win by the next government and allow them to back out of Tempest...

Make no mistake about it, the next government is staring at the bottom of empty coffers, they will be looking to save money accross the board and defence always gets robbed first....

There's no alternative to the new SSN, there is a face saving alternative to Tempest in the shape of the emerging Block 4 F35, not as good as Tempest, but perhaps good enough and it would deliver the important tangible savings to the treasury.

Always trust that a politician will burn anything to the ground for short term savings, the next mob will be absolutely desperate to find savings anywhere the public don't notice ( most couldn't give a toss about Tempest), failing that, spin a cheap alternative solution.

It is a very real threat gents....

[SD67]

Oh I don't underestimate the normal threat of Treasury stupidity of the HS2 kind, but I don't see anything with Tempest itself that's my point. The programs that have been cancelled - chiefly nimrod ( though you could argue T26 was semi cancelled) were because it just failed. I don't see this happening with GCAP

Maybe some ham fisted attempt by a new government to merge it with the French FCAS - which will last a few months while the French tell them to bugger off - then back to business

[mrclark303]

Oh I don't underestimate the normal threat of Treasury stupidity of the HS2 kind, but I don't see anything with Tempest itself that's my point. The programs that have been cancelled - chiefly nimrod ( though you could argue T26 was semi cancelled) were because it just failed. I don't see this happening with GCAP

Maybe some ham fisted attempt by a new government to merge it with the French FCAS - which will last a few months while the French tell them to bugger off - then back to business

I can't see any form of merger with FCAS, trying to merge so many partners with different requirements would be nigh on impossible.

On a basic level, the UK and Japan want a large
(increasingly looking like a very large, F22 'ish' ) strike fighter, the French something Typhoon sized, limited by the design carrier capability.

We have to keep everything crossed, Tempest isn't bloody sacrificed like TSR2 was in 1965. Interesting parallels between the two programmes, including the financial situation, an American alternative, a change of government etc