Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[mrclark303]

Personally I suspect that if F35 had any potential to be developed into a frontline top end air superiority platform for the 2040s then the IUS wouldn’t be doing NGAD + the USN equivalent.

Lockmartin offering us full localisation and UK avionics / weapons / new engine - when they know we’ve no alternative because we’ve already cancelled GCAP? Unlikely. And who’s going to pay for the development?

No need for UK avionics or engine tech, it would be a block 5 build, the UK would have 'some influence and contribute to'.

The engine refresh tech is already under development, and should the UK order 150, then yes, a Warton assembly line would absolutely be offered as part of the package.

Air superiority is a bit of an oxymoron these days, it's all about agile and highly capable missiles with expansive no escape zones.

In the future, also trainable high energy lasers and powerful agile beam radar electronic attack modes to completely blind the opponent.

[mrclark303]

Friendly reminder that the intake for the engine alone is 10m. 10m!
Aircraft is defiantly in 20-25m range.

She's certainly going to be very big, I can quite understand 2d stealthy nozzles, but are they fixed or moving, moving adds a considerable cost.

The more complexity that's added now, the higher the unit price goes and serious danger of the whole programme falling at the first hurdle, as it becomes unaffordable.

I really hope someone is tapping the brake peddle here to keep development costs affordable. There's huge potential in this platform and wider programme, it's so close now we can almost touch it.....

[serge750]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... mpest-gcap

Within the trio of GCAP partners, the UK is understood to be leading the effort to add Saudi Arabia. However, Japanese officials have expressed firm opposition to the Saudis joining, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the request. Japan has been slowly loosening controls on weapons exports that were part of its legacy of pacifism after the second world war.

What on earth are the Saudis going to bring to this programme aside from petro-dollars?

[topman]

I think you answered your own question.

[TheLoneRanger]

Also jobs for BAE in the UK hopefully.

It will be interesting who else will be interested. We should avoid France / Germany as well as the US. But perhaps the likes of Australia, Canada and Poland would make good contributions.

[new guy]

this news has been around for quite a few months. It pisses me off when the media respieles it a few months later trying to make it seem like news. IMO, unlikely to happen. They could definitely be an end buyer though.

[mrclark303]

Also jobs for BAE in the UK hopefully.

It will be interesting who else will be interested. We should avoid France / Germany as well as the US. But perhaps the likes of Australia, Canada and Poland would make good contributions.

Certainly I think Australia 'could' be a candidate in the 2040 + time frame.

Canada probably not, as they are buying F35A and have a reputation for flogging the arse out of their fighters, so I doubt they will be looking for replacements until 2050 +

Bringing in Saudi Arabia is an excellent idea, they will bring several suitcases of folding money to the table just when it's needed....

[mrclark303]

Also jobs for BAE in the UK hopefully.

It will be interesting who else will be interested. We should avoid France / Germany as well as the US. But perhaps the likes of Australia, Canada and Poland would make good contributions.

Certainly I think Australia 'could' be a candidate in the 2040 + time frame.

Canada probably not, as they are buying F35A and have a reputation for flogging the arse out of their fighters, so I doubt they will be looking for replacements until 2050 +

Bringing in Saudi Arabia is an excellent idea, they will bring several suitcases of folding money to the table just when it's needed....

I think Poland is locked into a US procument loop for fast jets, as they are pressed against the rabid Russian bear, it's probably best they stick to Uncle Sam's side....

[TheLoneRanger]

this news has been around for quite a few months. It pisses me off when the media respieles it a few months later trying to make it seem like news. IMO, unlikely to happen. They could definitely be an end buyer though.

Saudia Arabia has options now in Ka'an from Turkey and the J-35 series from China. It is not a "slam dunk" as it once was and the pounds have to be earnt. Saudia Arabia is only worried about Iran, so their choices are sufficent for their threat environment.

So - if they want Saudia Arabia as a potential client - they need to put something on the table.

[Meriv9]

this news has been around for quite a few months. It pisses me off when the media respieles it a few months later trying to make it seem like news. IMO, unlikely to happen. They could definitely be an end buyer though.

Saudia Arabia has options now in Ka'an from Turkey and the J-35 series from China. It is not a "slam dunk" as it once was and the pounds have to be earnt. Saudia Arabia is only worried about Iran, so their choices are sufficent for their threat environment.

So - if they want Saudia Arabia as a potential client - they need to put something on the table.

I personally don't think Kaan stands too much scrutiny, I suspect a sheep in wolf's clothes to be honest.

It looks rather like the car Homer Simpson designed, that doesn't help, but the speed of the program screams ' rapid prototyping technology demonstrator' to me, rather than an expensive production machine ...

Certainly not decrying Turkish industry, they are high quality and high tech, it's just a close examination of the program leaves a lot of questions.....

I suspect the real 'mission' for the Kaan, is to leverage back into the F35 programme to be honest, it's a poker move.....

I don't think Chinese fighters will fit the bill either, the Royal Prince's have a preference for expensive toys, 'Made in China' won't fit the bill....

I think bringing Saudi Arabia into Tempest will be it's first big challenge, the Americans won't like it one bit, if it's as capable as the PR men are making it out to be, it could alter the balance of power in the region and Israel won't like it one bit....

Expect the US to lean hard on Japan first to stop it....

If we do bring in Saudi Arabia and their massive toys budget, it will be fantastic.....

It's possible they will move the requirement for 48 additional Typhoon and convert it to Tempest. If they do that, they will come from the Warton line, so it's gravy all round....

[mrclark303]

this news has been around for quite a few months. It pisses me off when the media respieles it a few months later trying to make it seem like news. IMO, unlikely to happen. They could definitely be an end buyer though.

Saudia Arabia has options now in Ka'an from Turkey and the J-35 series from China. It is not a "slam dunk" as it once was and the pounds have to be earnt. Saudia Arabia is only worried about Iran, so their choices are sufficent for their threat environment.

So - if they want Saudia Arabia as a potential client - they need to put something on the table.

I personally don't think Kaan stands too much scrutiny, I suspect a sheep in wolf's clothes to be honest.

It looks rather like the car Homer Simpson designed, that doesn't help, but the speed of the program screams ' rapid prototyping technology demonstrator' to me, rather than an expensive production machine ...

Certainly not decrying Turkish industry, they are high quality and high tech, it's just a close examination of the program leaves a lot of questions.....

I suspect the real 'mission' for the Kaan, is to leverage back into the F35 programme to be honest, it's a poker move.....

I don't think Chinese fighters will fit the bill either, the Royal Prince's have a preference for expensive toys, 'Made in China' won't fit the bill....

I think bringing Saudi Arabia into Tempest will be it's first big challenge, the Americans won't like it one bit, if it's as capable as the PR men are making it out to be, it could alter the balance of power in the region and Israel won't like it one bit....

Expect the US to lean hard on Japan first to stop it....

If we do bring in Saudi Arabia and their massive toys budget, it will be fantastic.....

It's possible they will move the requirement for 48 additional Typhoon and convert it to Tempest. If they do that, they will come from the Warton line, so it's gravy all round....

Hypothesising further, I'm going to call an order of 150 each for the UK and Japan, with 80 for Italy.

An intal order of 48 for Saudi Arabia, would give Warton a really solid production run.

Keep everything crossed!

[Spitfire9]

I personally don't think Kaan stands too much scrutiny, I suspect a sheep in wolf's clothes to be honest.

It looks rather like the car Homer Simpson designed, that doesn't help, but the speed of the program screams ' rapid prototyping technology demonstrator' to me, rather than an expensive production machine ...

Certainly not decrying Turkish industry, they are high quality and high tech, it's just a close examination of the program leaves a lot of questions.....

I suspect the real 'mission' for the Kaan, is to leverage back into the F35 programme to be honest, it's a poker move.....

I read it differently. I think that being expelled from the JSF program was a confirmation to Turkey that it needed a reliable source of weapons. The most reliable source would be Turkey - if it could make them. The Achilles heel of the Kaan is the non-Turkish engine. Until Turkey can get its hands on an acceptable engine to replace the GE F110, US can potentially bring supply of the Kaan's engine to a halt.

Last year Turkey issued an RFI for an engine for Kaan, an engine to be produced by a Turkish company in Turkey, an engine enabling Turkey to export the Kaan to whichever country it chose to supply. I think that such an engine would likely be developed, tested, certified and be in production post 2035.

Just last week Azerbaijan 'signed onto' the Kaan programme. Pakistan will likely do the same in the coming months. Later, Qatar might also become involved. I think that the Kaan could find several customers among those countries the US will not supply with F-35... when the F110 engine is replaced.

While Kaan would mot approach the Tempest technologically it might be of interest to countries whose pockets were not deep enough to pay for Tempest (or F-35).

[Timmymagic]

While Kaan would mot approach the Tempest technologically it might be of interest to countries whose pockets were not deep enough to pay for Tempest (or F-35).

With F-35, KF-21, FC-31 and Ka'an, plus the potential of the SU-75 (I'm dubious but don't write it off entirely), the lower end of the '5th Gen' fighter market will be saturated in the 2030's. India might even manage one...And the nations making them are far happier to sell to all and sundry than the UK/Italy and Japan would be, or even the French for that matter...(albeit they have the dead weight of Germany with them...). I do wonder if Sweden and Saab will realise that in due course...F-35 has a large chunk of the European market sewn up into the 2060's and will continue to be developed. Can't see there being any real market for a Saab developed small 5th Gen fighter.

[SD67]

While Kaan would mot approach the Tempest technologically it might be of interest to countries whose pockets were not deep enough to pay for Tempest (or F-35).

With F-35, KF-21, FC-31 and Ka'an, plus the potential of the SU-75 (I'm dubious but don't write it off entirely), the lower end of the '5th Gen' fighter market will be saturated in the 2030's. India might even manage one...And the nations making them are far happier to sell to all and sundry than the UK/Italy and Japan would be, or even the French for that matter...(albeit they have the dead weight of Germany with them...). I do wonder if Sweden and Saab will realise that in due course...F-35 has a large chunk of the European market sewn up into the 2060's and will continue to be developed. Can't see there being any real market for a Saab developed small 5th Gen fighter.

I think the most interesting one is Ka'an. KF21 is ITAR restricted, FC-31 - well who will they sell it to? If the Saudis buy Chinese then frankly we have much bigger problems than the workload at Warton

Turkey maybe onto something, a 21st century Mig21 replacement for a host of second tier airforces.

[zavve]

host

Turkey maybe onto something, a 21st century Mig21 replacement for a host of second tier airforces.

Most MiG-21 operators are too poor to buy a fifth-ish generation fighter. India is a no-go, due to Turkey's Pakistani partnership and India's crazy belief that they can develop AMCA when they can't even get Tejas right.
MiG 21 replacement market is already saturated, Tejas, JF-17, Second hand F-16 and Russian dumpsters.

[SD67]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... mpest-gcap

Within the trio of GCAP partners, the UK is understood to be leading the effort to add Saudi Arabia. However, Japanese officials have expressed firm opposition to the Saudis joining, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the request. Japan has been slowly loosening controls on weapons exports that were part of its legacy of pacifism after the second world war.

What on earth are the Saudis going to bring to this programme aside from petro-dollars?

A read that Aramco is getting heavily into carbon fibre / composites production.

[mrclark303]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... mpest-gcap

Within the trio of GCAP partners, the UK is understood to be leading the effort to add Saudi Arabia. However, Japanese officials have expressed firm opposition to the Saudis joining, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the request. Japan has been slowly loosening controls on weapons exports that were part of its legacy of pacifism after the second world war.

What on earth are the Saudis going to bring to this programme aside from petro-dollars?

A read that Aramco is getting heavily into carbon fibre / composites production.

They did build a facility to assemble Thypoon, but it fell by the wayside unfortunately. Saudi 3d printing of Tempest parts will probably feature as part of any deal.

[Jensy]

They did build a facility to assemble Thypoon, but it fell by the wayside unfortunately. Saudi 3d printing of Tempest parts will probably feature as part of any deal.

There was even a final assembly jig built for them but it's never left Warton. Incidentally this means the UK line has a higher potential output for assembling Typhoons than any of the other partners.

[Jensy]

A very detailed look at the future of cockpit technology and how it will interact with Loyal Wingmen and other assets.

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/future ... of-an-eye/

I cant help but feel the article, likely inadvertently, makes a compelling case for GCAP to have a back seat...

[new guy]

A very detailed look at the future of cockpit technology and how it will interact with Loyal Wingmen and other assets.

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/future ... of-an-eye/

I cant help but feel the article, likely inadvertently, makes a compelling case for GCAP to have a back seat...

I would agree, 1 one pilot and 1 commander ( combat, loyal wing-man, e.c.t) .

[mrclark303]

A very detailed look at the future of cockpit technology and how it will interact with Loyal Wingmen and other assets.

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/future ... of-an-eye/

I cant help but feel the article, likely inadvertently, makes a compelling case for GCAP to have a back seat...

I would agree, 1 one pilot and 1 commander ( combat, loyal wing-man, e.c.t) .

That's really interesting, some amazing and game changing tech!

The absence of any planned increase from 2% GDP on defence is likely to put Tempest in danger unfortunately.

The likely 15/20 billion UK contribution, compressed into a 15 year period is looking to be unaffordable within current spending constraints, especially running concurrently to the next gen SSN programme that's likely to cost a similar amount and get underway in the same time frame.

Whoever is in charge in 2025 when Tempest main gate is reached, they are going to have some tough decisions to make.

The speed that they intend to push Tempest forward with is a double edged sword, one one hand, it means deploying a fully rounded capability far faster than than slow as molasses Thypoon, on the over it means a ' very ' high' investment spike, with the bulk of the 40 odd billion programme budget spent in the first 10 years.

Let's assume it's Labour, it's highly likely that they stick to Conservative financial limits for two years, that means Tempest isn't achievable...

Japan won't wait and will likely go it alone. They have a nervous eye on China and want Tempest in place asap.

They will want to see money commited and minimum national orders ( 150 each Japan and UK and 80 Italy, I would suggest) cast in contractual concrete in 2025.

I think Italy might also struggle to justify its 10 billion or so contribution to its electorate....

It's a real conundrum, one I struggle to see a route out from unfortunately, let's keep everything crossed!

[new guy]

I don't get your tempest funding paranoia you keep on talking about. show some evidence.

[SD67]

I don't get it either. Last time I checked fast combat air is about 17 billion out of 130 billion in the 10 year look ahead. The only way it gets cancelled is if Labour decide they don't want the UK to have an aerospace industry. In any case it looks like Blair is going to be the real PM and he's not exactly a pacifist

[new guy]

I don't get it either. Last time I checked fast combat air is about 17 billion out of 130 billion in the 10 year look ahead. The only way it gets cancelled is if Labour decide they don't want the UK to have an aerospace industry. In any case it looks like Blair is going to be the real PM and he's not exactly a pacifist

I don't want to stray too far down the pathway of party politics.

However, I will say, as an ageing Pol Sci postgraduate, that the Labour party under Starmer seems far more internationally involved than the Tories under Sunak, who appears to have a deeply isolationist streak to him, alongside his budgetary hyper conservatism. Even if that's not reflective of either of their wider parties anymore.

This is going to come down to jobs and national pride for whoever is in power come main gate. Money is always there when votes are at stake, as recent history has proven.

I'm far more concerned about letting the Saudis or Indians into the programme, as partners, and the chaos they would bring, rather than finances.

[SD67]

I kind of agree. Although I also really don't want the Saudis to go Chinese or (horror of horror) French!

Though compared to India, once the KSA decide to do something they generally don't mess about, the wonders of being an absolute monarchy