Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[mrclark303]

As a side note, I watched a really interesting Ward Carol ( ex Tomcat RIO and interested guy, recommended) Video on YouTube the other day, he had a wider discussion regarding gen 6 etc with a British guy who certainly knew his stuff, apologies guys, I can't remember his name.

The interesting part was specifically regarding Tempest.

He specifically hypothersised that even taking high tech manufacturing and rapid prototyping into account, the size and complexity being aimed for will cost circa 40 billion.

So let's say 15 billion each for Japan and the UK and 10 billion to Italy...

Is that affordable within our current defence budget?
Can Italy afford 10 billion?

I think the answer is no and no, if the UK can sustain 2.5% of GDP pushing forward on defence then perhaps, 3% then it's doable.

So, if his hypothesis is correct, it seems a reasonable assumption and it's unaffordable, where do we go next?

An F35A deal seems most likely and affordable, perhaps a future block 5 with increased UK content and assembly in the UK, to keep Warton etc open.

And here comes, right on time, our old friend - the "affordable off the shelf US option". How many times have we seen this guy? Always turns up just when a UK project is getting traction, then once the project is cancelled he suddenly becomes somewhat less affordable. 20 years to get UK weapons integrated on F35 do we seriously think LM are going to help us build our own little Spey Phantom successor?

15 Billion development over 10 years for the UK is eminently affordable - arguably less than the army's vehicle programs and not that much more than morpheus. There's I believe 20 billion set aside for fast air in the 10 year equipment plan. To put that in perspective, nuclear enterprise gets 60 billion over the same timescale.
This is before you start to consider loss of exports, loss of sovereignty, exposure to the USD which is killing us at the moment, and thw spin off benefits in AI, materials technology etc.

You seem to be confusing me with the guy on YouTube, did I say I agreed with his hypothesis .... Hmm No, I didn't, I mearly put the idea forward for debate

Instead of immediately going off on an F35 rant, take a breath, get off your orange box and actually examine the possibilities?

It's meant to be a discussion on defence related matters, is £15 billion affordable, is it though ?

We are talking our Thypoon contribution, made at at a time when defence spending was considerably higher in relation to the costs.

We will find out soon enough, because the next government will have to fully commit, or back out.

Hey mate not on a rant at all. But I think fast combat air is where we should circle the wagons, second only to SSNs / SSBNs. Everything else, strategically, is a long long way behind.

And we have two fantastic partners who share with us similar requirements, similar threat perception, and top tier industrial capabilities.
Seriously if the 3rd 5th and 7th economies in the world cannot between them develop a fighter then there is something wrong.

In terms of whether 15 billion is affordable - MHO is if you want 6th gen capabilities you are going to pay for it. Either in up front capex, or ongoing licensing / support / maintenance.

Sorry mate, bad day and feeling rather touchy, my apologies...

On the subject of 15 billion, the thing that really worried me is experts are gravly concerned we really can't afford it, when people with in depth knowledge of defence and security red flag it, it's a concern.

I would imagine that when the order is signed by all the partners (say 150 each UK and Japan, 60 - 80 Italy) and the development programme commences, there's going to be an immediate 6 billion injection required.

This is going to be a compressed development programme, probably with the bulk of the money spent within 10 years. Eurofighter was as slow as molasses and still rumbles on..

I think a lot is going to depend on a sustainable defence budget increase to 2.5%, preferably 3%.

I totally agree though that fast air sits alongside warship and submarine capability, as something we need to retain in house.

[GarethDavies1]

Is 15 billion the true figure to develop it, or just the amount that BAE can swindle out of the Government!

[mrclark303]

Is 15 billion the true figure to develop it, or just the amount that BAE can swindle out of the Government!

It's a projected figure, probably about right I would think to cover the large manned platform and the accompanying UCAV.

There is no current funding for this, especially if we are about to simultaneously run a massive new SSN programme, with rumours of 12 for the RN...

So, what's going to give???

[SW1]

Is 15 billion the true figure to develop it, or just the amount that BAE can swindle out of the Government!

It's a projected figure, probably about right I would think to cover the large manned platform and the accompanying UCAV.

There is no current funding for this, especially if we are about to simultaneously run a massive new SSN programme, with rumours of 12 for the RN...

So, what's going to give???

there is funding allocated in the 10 year budget plan for tempest and its multi billions

[mrclark303]

Is 15 billion the true figure to develop it, or just the amount that BAE can swindle out of the Government!

It's a projected figure, probably about right I would think to cover the large manned platform and the accompanying UCAV.

There is no current funding for this, especially if we are about to simultaneously run a massive new SSN programme, with rumours of 12 for the RN...

So, what's going to give???

there is funding allocated in the 10 year budget plan for tempest and its multi billions

I can only find references to 2 billion over the next few years for initial development.

Any links for substantial funding commitment SW1 ??

That would be great news....

[SW1]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... o_2032.pdf

Page 41 future combat aircraft budget is within the strategic programs budget which should not be confused with the nuclear program. You won’t get at definitive breakdown until the main gate decision.

Funding of around £10 billion is believed allocated but not committed specifically to this program.

[mrclark303]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... o_2032.pdf

Page 41 future combat aircraft budget is within the strategic programs budget which should not be confused with the nuclear program. You won’t get at definitive breakdown until the main gate decision.

Funding of around £10 billion is believed allocated but not committed specifically to this program.

All a tad vague then, when's the main gate decision, this government or the next?

If it's 10 billion dedicated to Tempest project, then it's a good start. It's not enough, but it is to get us down the road with it.

I fully expect at the partner signature point, fully costed and ring fenced funding by all three to be bound within in the contract

Partners will have to show the money is there prior, then we will see...

[SD67]

You aren’t assembling f35 at warton that ship sailed in 2009 when the government of the day said nah and Italy said yeah.

Same with military power plants when the F136 was not funded UK government could off when the yanks said they wouldn’t! F136 was what retired a number of risks on f35b for the U.K. in particular back in the 00s.

Our radar and sensor business has no aircraft to develop stuff for and complex weapons will be seriously constrained as getting them on f35 is a headache and all test and integration is done stateside.

Of course buying f35a is an option but let’s not pretend there isn’t a significant cost to going that way and a rather short sided non strategic decision at that.

So it's 2026, Tempest has been cancelled by Labour as it trys to balance the books.

You're the Defence Secratry, ordering a replacement is now getting critical as time ticks away?

Options????

In that case I'd take whatever Tempest tech had been developed at that point and bolt it onto a batch 4/5 Typhoon to keep Warton ticking over.

[mrclark303]

You aren’t assembling f35 at warton that ship sailed in 2009 when the government of the day said nah and Italy said yeah.

Same with military power plants when the F136 was not funded UK government could off when the yanks said they wouldn’t! F136 was what retired a number of risks on f35b for the U.K. in particular back in the 00s.

Our radar and sensor business has no aircraft to develop stuff for and complex weapons will be seriously constrained as getting them on f35 is a headache and all test and integration is done stateside.

Of course buying f35a is an option but let’s not pretend there isn’t a significant cost to going that way and a rather short sided non strategic decision at that.

So it's 2026, Tempest has been cancelled by Labour as it trys to balance the books.

You're the Defence Secratry, ordering a replacement is now getting critical as time ticks away?

Options????

In that case I'd take whatever Tempest tech had been developed at that point and bolt it onto a batch 4/5 Typhoon to keep Warton ticking over.

There's certainly huge development potential left in Typhoon, that's for sure, but age is starting to show.

The only other real option to retain UK manufacturing base ( with a modern platform) would be a UK specific advanced F35A, UK assembly and increased UK content, say 30% build. I'm sure LM would jump a the chance too.

If the projected budget is 8 billion or so, but falls short
by 7 billion, than we will probably be looking at an F35 based solution to the manned aspect of the programme as we lower our sights 'T31' style to fit the budget.

What really worries me is we are in danger of over specifying Tempest with cutting edge laser weaponry etc, to the point it becomes unaffordable, I really hope someone with common sense is already applying the bakes here and there and ensuring
'nice to have' isn't stuck in the ' has to have' column....

Otherwise costs will spin rapidly out of control and it will get binned at main gate.

The F35 is just sitting in the wings and waiting patiently!!

[new guy]

Just do F-35

[Jensy]

The only other real option to retain UK manufacturing base ( with a modern platform) would be a UK specific advanced F35A, UK assembly and increased UK content, say 30% build. I'm sure LM would jump a the chance too.

Tier 1 membership and we're seeing ever lower amounts of UK content and still waiting for Spear 3 integration,

I don't see LockMart jumping to attention for us ending up with a number of F-35s not that far off our original order.

Should we be unable to afford our part in GCAP then I'd argue we're probably better off licence building a more developed version of the Turkish Kaan at Warton.

[Digger22]

No more F35 Thanks. We need to turn the tide and Fully Commit to this programme. Are we not Forgetting RnD budget from Partners. It's not all coming from us. This is a real Crossroads moment. But contracts need sorting before the next election.

[mrclark303]

The only other real option to retain UK manufacturing base ( with a modern platform) would be a UK specific advanced F35A, UK assembly and increased UK content, say 30% build. I'm sure LM would jump a the chance too.

Tier 1 membership and we're seeing ever lower amounts of UK content and still waiting for Spear 3 integration,

I don't see LockMart jumping to attention for us ending up with a number of F-35s not that far off our original order.

Should we be unable to afford our part in GCAP then I'd argue we're probably better off licence building a more developed version of the Turkish Kaan at Warton.

Interesting choice, I'm not sure how advanced it is though, it's a sort of 'looks a tad stealthy' design, I suspect it's a lot of fur coat and no knickers tbo.

Consider that with Uncle Sam's vast defence budget and painful selection and development programmes
(F35 costing an estimated $400 billion to date), how can Turkeys offering be any good, developed for peanuts....

Uncle Sam would I suspect take the opportunity to pull the UK firmly into its orbit once and for all and would offer a deal that couldn't be refused....

The RAF would probably be perfectly happy with an advanced F35 variant I suppose.....

Like I said, what's being decided behind closed doors regarding Tempest right now, will decide if it stands or falls, bite too much off in the way of high tech expensive systems and it will fall at the first hurdle!

[Little J]

Uncle Sam would I suspect take the opportunity to pull the UK firmly into its orbit once and for all and would offer a deal that couldn't be refused....

Couldn't be refused and highly likely was to the detriment of the UK

[mrclark303]

Uncle Sam would I suspect take the opportunity to pull the UK firmly into its orbit once and for all and would offer a deal that couldn't be refused....

Couldn't be refused and highly likely was to the detriment of the UK

It certainly would end domestic aircraft design, just like the Italians through Leonardo, have finished domestic helicopter design for good....

[Spitfire9]

There's certainly huge development potential left in Typhoon, that's for sure, but age is starting to show.

The only other real option to retain UK manufacturing base ( with a modern platform) would be a UK specific advanced F35A, UK assembly and increased UK content, say 30% build. I'm sure LM would jump a the chance too.

If the projected budget is 8 billion or so, but falls short
by 7 billion, than we will probably be looking at an F35 based solution to the manned aspect of the programme as we lower our sights 'T31' style to fit the budget.

What really worries me is we are in danger of over specifying Tempest with cutting edge laser weaponry etc, to the point it becomes unaffordable, I really hope someone with common sense is already applying the bakes here and there and ensuring
'nice to have' isn't stuck in the ' has to have' column....

Otherwise costs will spin rapidly out of control and it will get binned at main gate.

The F35 is just sitting in the wings and waiting patiently!!

Spending billions on designing and developing a fighter to then cancel it is a very stupid way to do business. If the UK's procurement system is so absurdly lacking, the UK would do well to adopt the practices used in other countries that do not suffer from such severe shortcomings.

[mrclark303]

There's certainly huge development potential left in Typhoon, that's for sure, but age is starting to show.

The only other real option to retain UK manufacturing base ( with a modern platform) would be a UK specific advanced F35A, UK assembly and increased UK content, say 30% build. I'm sure LM would jump a the chance too.

If the projected budget is 8 billion or so, but falls short
by 7 billion, than we will probably be looking at an F35 based solution to the manned aspect of the programme as we lower our sights 'T31' style to fit the budget.

What really worries me is we are in danger of over specifying Tempest with cutting edge laser weaponry etc, to the point it becomes unaffordable, I really hope someone with common sense is already applying the bakes here and there and ensuring
'nice to have' isn't stuck in the ' has to have' column....

Otherwise costs will spin rapidly out of control and it will get binned at main gate.

The F35 is just sitting in the wings and waiting patiently!!

Spending billions on designing and developing a fighter to then cancel it is a very stupid way to do business. If the UK's procurement system is so absurdly lacking, the UK would do well to adopt the practices used in other countries that do not suffer from such severe shortcomings.

Unfortunately, such is the vast complexity of such a system, 2 billion is burned through very quickly, it might get you an airframe technology demonstrator utilising much Thypoon technology and various prototype systems bench and simulation run and a little preliminary engine design work to feed into stage two.

Much of the above depends on ' invested ' industry partners, keeping the cost down through the lens of loss leader economics, all pushing towards a common goal of gravy tomorrow!

Then you get into designing a production aircraft, new engines and systems.

The programme very quickly starts to consume really serious cash at a frightening pace!

[TheLoneRanger]

Given that we are a few years away from the prototype in 2027 !!!!!!!!!! - we are not far from the first phase of the programme and therefore there is a decision point once the prototype has flown ( since all that is already sunk cost )

If costs( or more liikely goverment sillyness ) become an issue :

Phase 1 - complete the prototype airframe into a final variant and the new propulsion of the Tempest and use a variant of the typhoon avionics offered to Finlands for typhoon offer to make a 5th gen platform. This way we can increase airframes, maintain skills and not incur the actual cost of a 6th gen platform which is all the new avionics/ew and "system of systems" and wingman drones ie the 6th generation concepts themselves etc.

Finland typhoon offer single Large display :

Phase 2 : go all the way to the 6th gen variant with the new concepts.

We have alot of things in place already - so getting to phase 1 is important as we can get a new long range stealth platform that we can work on slowly over time into 6th gen - rather than treating it as project.

[mrclark303]

Given that we are a few years away from the prototype in 2027 !!!!!!!!!! - we are not far from the first phase of the programme and therefore there is a decision point once the prototype has flown ( since all that is already sunk cost )

If costs( or more liikely goverment sillyness ) become an issue :

Phase 1 - complete the prototype airframe into a final variant and the new propulsion of the Tempest and use a variant of the typhoon avionics offered to Finlands for typhoon offer to make a 5th gen platform. This way we can increase airframes, maintain skills and not incur the actual cost of a 6th gen platform which is all the new avionics/ew and "system of systems" and wingman drones ie the 6th generation concepts themselves etc.

Finland typhoon offer single Large display :

Phase 2 : go all the way to the 6th gen variant with the new concepts.

We have alot of things in place already - so getting to phase 1 is important as we can get a new long range stealth platform that we can work on slowly over time into 6th gen - rather than treating it as project.

A number of issues unfortunately get in the way here, first, that's a UK centric solution to an international programme.

I will guarantee the Japanese would not accept a steady as we go, piecemeal approach.

They will have a typically Japanese carefully focused approach that will mean an extremely high initial investment spike, as a new airframe, engine and multiple avionics and weapon systems simultaneously start an aggressive and expensive development phase.

Regarding the Hush, hush demonstrator being assembled at Warton, I think it really is a technology demonstrator, certainly not the relationship that the X35 had to the F35, think more EAP to Eurofighter.

It will be particularly focused on structural material prototyping and proposed layout with 100% Thypoon avionics and propulsion.

Maybe with working weapons bays, maybe not....

[serge750]

Interesting choice, I'm not sure how advanced it is though, it's a sort of 'looks a tad stealthy' design, I suspect it's a lot of fur coat and no knickers tbo.

Consider that with Uncle Sam's vast defence budget and painful selection and development programmes
(F35 costing an estimated $400 billion to date), how can Turkeys offering be any good, developed for peanuts....

Uncle Sam would I suspect take the opportunity to pull the UK firmly into its orbit once and for all and would offer a deal that couldn't be refused....

The RAF would probably be perfectly happy with an advanced F35 variant I suppose.....

Like I said, what's being decided behind closed doors regarding Tempest right now, will decide if it stands or falls, bite too much off in the way of high tech expensive systems and it will fall at the first hurdle!

I suspect your assessment is not far off.

From the non-US allied fighters in development it's between the TF and the KF-21. Of the two, the Turkish option has BAE and R-R involved (the former currently more than the latter) rather than LockMart. Whilst they need a lot of help, the Turks have really bet the farm on the programme with huge infrastructure and state of the art fabrication.

This is however only contingency thinking. I hope GCAP can be made a success and that whatever UK government is in power understands its importance goes across defence needs, and into industrial policy and foreign relations.

GCAP is a generational opportunity which could be ruined by either British parochial attitudes or US industrial intrigue/lobbying and their gleeful cheerleaders in Westminster and Whitehall.

As for the demonstrator, it's going to be shaped by its Typhoon heritage as much as anything. Maybe we'll learn more from DSEi next month.

[jedibeeftrix]

Interesting choice, I'm not sure how advanced it is though, it's a sort of 'looks a tad stealthy' design, I suspect it's a lot of fur coat and no knickers tbo.

Consider that with Uncle Sam's vast defence budget and painful selection and development programmes
(F35 costing an estimated $400 billion to date), how can Turkeys offering be any good, developed for peanuts....

Uncle Sam would I suspect take the opportunity to pull the UK firmly into its orbit once and for all and would offer a deal that couldn't be refused....

The RAF would probably be perfectly happy with an advanced F35 variant I suppose.....

Like I said, what's being decided behind closed doors regarding Tempest right now, will decide if it stands or falls, bite too much off in the way of high tech expensive systems and it will fall at the first hurdle!

I suspect your assessment is not far off.

From the non-US allied fighters in development it's between the TF and the KF-21. Of the two, the Turkish option has BAE and R-R involved (the former currently more than the latter) rather than LockMart. Whilst they need a lot of help, the Turks have really bet the farm on the programme with huge infrastructure and state of the art fabrication.

This is however only contingency thinking. I hope GCAP can be made a success and that whatever UK government is in power understands its importance goes across defence needs, and into industrial policy and foreign relations.

GCAP is a generational opportunity which could be ruined by either British parochial attitudes or US industrial intrigue/lobbying and their gleeful cheerleaders in Westminster and Whitehall.

As for the demonstrator, it's going to be shaped by its Typhoon heritage as much as anything. Maybe we'll learn more from DSEi next month.

I'm really looking forward to seeing the technology demonstrator, first of its kind since the roll out of EAP in 1986.

EAP had huge potential in itself, unfortunately we were committed to a European solution and it was never going to be developed into an operational platform.

We were forced to adapt a Tornado rear fuselage as the Germans withdrew (I suspect because of the base potential it offered) and the Italians built the starboard wing.

The Germans had been responsible for designing and building the composite rear fuselage.

German foot dragging, penny pinching and a high minded attitude have plagued Thypoon from it's earliest days of conception. For 40 years they have acted as a drag chute, slowing development, integration and damaging sales.

Even 40 years from project start, they are likely to block and kill a potential second order for 48 examples for Saudi Arabia.

Thank the heavens they aren't involved in GCAP!

[SD67]

Personally I suspect that if F35 had any potential to be developed into a frontline top end air superiority platform for the 2040s then the IUS wouldn’t be doing NGAD + the USN equivalent.

Lockmartin offering us full localisation and UK avionics / weapons / new engine - when they know we’ve no alternative because we’ve already cancelled GCAP? Unlikely. And who’s going to pay for the development?

[new guy]

Can't say that she isn't a looker compared to fat Amy.
Lightning has its own majestic appeal though.

[Spitfire9]

I don't think I have seen any reports on the engine. Are there any indications of thrust level? Is a demonstrator being built?

[new guy]

Friendly reminder that the intake for the engine alone is 10m. 10m!
Aircraft is defiantly in 20-25m range.