Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
new guy
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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New image of GCAP released by BAE for the resent announcement of new £628m funding spert by MoD.
FtqbYdWWAAEHdgt.jpeg
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Gtal »

Welp.. Rusi's lead aviation analyst Justin Bronk, often cited on this forum as an authority on the subject has cottoned on to the lack of realism behind the performative marketing effort around Tempest.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... -cant-cash


This from a thinktank who's only purpose is to cheerlead and promote UK defence, and an author who has been enthusiastically bigging up anything Tempest related for a couple years now.


Please, can just this one time someone actually respond to the substance of the link instead of deflecting or changing the subject?

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by new guy »

Whats the comparison against? F-35? The aircraft with the largest development cost in history? (In other news, new orders of 126 F-35 for $7.8bn, meaning an average cost of $62m !!!!!! ).
The Truth is that they are gonna have to build it with what they get; If that is what it is hyped up to be , or even just substantially better that F-35B block 4,5,6, then its done its job. Yes, I do believe that tempest is going to need to get more money than it is now, but not as much as some think. Remember that the funding structure is 40% UK, 40% Japan, 20% Italian. The funding structure before GCAP would probably be 60% UK, 30% Italian, 10% Sweden. Also the assumption that you can't build on a budget is one that has been created by MoD, treasury and government dili-daling for the past few decades. I believe the 2000's boeing built the bird of prey stealth aircraft; The entire programme of development and product cost less that $60m. Saab built the saab gripen.


So, GCAP needs more money,( but not a whole sovereign wealth fund), We need to hope that future governments won't fuck the economy more than it is (I won't be going as far to say actively expand it), Hope that GCAP, and the whole MoD, And the whole government has good management, Hope japan and Italy doesn't calapse.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by new guy »

Also higher costs from BAE monopoly, Buying american product for a US DoD price, e.c.t

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by topman »

'held back by unrealistic cost and investment estimates'

Project Tempest, welcome to the club.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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For many years Justin has been the buy American champion it’s got him to the position he’s in so no surprises on his take.

Comparing to f35 development is somewhat disingenuous as f35 was really the design of 3 different aircraft simultaneously from a company that accidentally forget to include weapons bays in its parametric models and an industrial establishment that brought you the $750m dollar LCS speedboat…
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

Gtal wrote: 30 Apr 2023, 03:07 https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... -cant-cash


This from a thinktank who's only purpose is to cheerlead and promote UK defence, and an author who has been enthusiastically bigging up anything Tempest related for a couple years now.


You ask for objectivity then make a statement like that. Bronk has always been a Tempest sceptic. I've seen this same article from Bronk rehashed 3 times over the last 4 years. He is very close to the US aerospace industry - look at his videos on youtube, look at the access he has and where his briefings are usually given.

Into specifics :

"By contrast, for the entire GCAP system-of-systems, the UK has so far committed to spending £2 billion during the initial research and scoping phases, and Italy has only committed to €1.8 billion, with an ambition to ultimately spend another €2 billion by 2034"

That is just absolute nonsense. Bronk may be many things but an Accountant he aint.

The £2 billion referred to is actually UK expenditure that has been legally authorised to get the Project from here to Maingate in 2024/5. ie 18 months worth. There was also pre-concept funding going back to 2018 or earlier.
The thing you and Mr Bronk need to get your heads around is that it is not possible to legally commit to any more spending at this point because the project has not passed maingate yet. That's what maingate is.
The overall budget for the Project will be agreed by the partners in 2025 and contracts signed. At that point the big cheques will be written.

The link he refers to :

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... sv/preview

is not a projection of overall costs out to 2070 - its a reflection of total exposure thats legally committed to as of now. The mandate of the major projects Authority is to review the risks that we CURRENTLY HAVE NOW, not the we MAY ACQUIRE IN THE FUTURE. And it lists 10.6billion for Tempest which feels about right - if you add up all the various expenditure to date and the current legal commitments. Not 2 billion, 10 billion, by the UK alone.

Fast combat air currently has a 3 billion annual budget line in the UK. By the late 2020s deliveries of Bronk's beloved F35 to the UK will be complete and Tempest will take over that line.

There is always risk in projects like this. There is a risk in doing nothing and there's a risk in relying on imports that have to be paid for in USD- 20% deterioration in the exchange rate this year alone.....

The M
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Gtal wrote: 30 Apr 2023, 03:07 Welp.. Rusi's lead aviation analyst Justin Bronk, often cited on this forum as an authority on the subject has cottoned on to the lack of realism behind the performative marketing effort around Tempest.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... -cant-cash


This from a thinktank who's only purpose is to cheerlead and promote UK defence, and an author who has been enthusiastically bigging up anything Tempest related for a couple years now.


Please, can just this one time someone actually respond to the substance of the link instead of deflecting or changing the subject?
A silly article by Justin Bronk that fails to take into account how development programmes for military have advanced and become more predictable.

Using the Typhoon as a reference to extrapolate the GCAP programme just further highlights his lack of understanding why the Typhoon programme went to the shitters ( thanks to Germany, France ... ) and why and how the GCAP has learnt the issue and derisked those risks at the outset in the architecture of the programme..

Turkey ALONE has just developed a 5th generation stealth fighter... on its OWN it has funded the programme. If Turkey can do that alone - then why can't the combined economies of the UK, Japan and Italy build a 6th gen - where the difference between 5-6 gens is not that much in the airframe - but in the systems of systems, AI, etc ?

Korea has done a 5th Gen with 80% of the funding ( 20% indonesia ) ... etc...
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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I would also have more faith in the develop UAVs instead approach had we not nearly 15 years ago prototype developed herti, mantis, taranis as a national capability for tactical, non contested surveillance and penetrating environments and junked them all on alter of the egos of the winged master race. That’s before we get to mosquito.

What he’s really calling for is the UK to become Australia, get out of combat aircraft design, test and integration, get out of military sensor development, get out of military jet engine development and get out of weapons development and just rely on the US. You can take that position sure but be open and honest that, that is what your really asking for.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by serge750 »

All projects will have neighsayers & hurdles to over come, I don't think buying off the shelf for your main fighter would be in the UK best interest ( a true longer range Typhoon with more AAM than the F35 is required imo ) rather have a bit of a big pie & the knowhow & greater industrial benefits than the lower work share from more F35, ok a lot of commonality with the existing small fleet - I'm not knocking the F35, just being realistic - will be interesting to see how well the new Euro jet project progresses as a comparison..... thinking about it - more F35 would be a good fit for germany as they dont really need anything more being so close to the main potetial aggresser, save loads of euro in the process !
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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serge750 wrote: 30 Apr 2023, 19:37 All projects will have neighsayers & hurdles to over come, I don't think buying off the shelf for your main fighter would be in the UK best interest ( a true longer range Typhoon with more AAM than the F35 is required imo ) rather have a bit of a big pie & the knowhow & greater industrial benefits than the lower work share from more F35, ok a lot of commonality with the existing small fleet - I'm not knocking the F35, just being realistic - will be interesting to see how well the new Euro jet project progresses as a comparison..... thinking about it - more F35 would be a good fit for germany as they dont really need anything more being so close to the main potetial aggresser, save loads of euro in the process !
It's a natural fallback for Germany and I'm sure the Americans will offer incentives to do just that, just to kill off FOAS...

They could offer German final assembly perhaps, if the order was big enough.

It would save the German tax payer a fortune and the benefits of the programme seem to be increasingly heavily weighted towards the French.

They want design lead, project lead etc...

Typical French intransigence here, might just be the death knell of the whole undertaking..
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by inch »

I'm not going to defend France on their way of doing things , definitely not but french intransigence definitely yes but the at the back of it the french also know they could just go it alone and build the future fighter themselves and probably be a great sales success again after alot of dicking about again,so i think Germany knows this also so will toe the line

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by serge750 »

I think you could be right, France will get the prestigious title of lead & most of what they want as they have a proven track record - but will have to share a lot of the industrial benefits - Germany's choice but I think they will choose a EU product rather than upsetting the apple cart of the EU project & it's potential political implications of buying off the shelf more foreign 😁 F35

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Timmymagic »

SD67 wrote: 30 Apr 2023, 09:44 The £2 billion referred to is actually UK expenditure that has been legally authorised to get the Project from here to Maingate in 2024/5. ie 18 months worth. There was also pre-concept funding going back to 2018 or earlier.
The thing you and Mr Bronk need to get your heads around is that it is not possible to legally commit to any more spending at this point because the project has not passed maingate yet. That's what maingate is.
The overall budget for the Project will be agreed by the partners in 2025 and contracts signed. At that point the big cheques will be written.

The link he refers to :

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... sv/preview

is not a projection of overall costs out to 2070 - its a reflection of total exposure thats legally committed to as of now. The mandate of the major projects Authority is to review the risks that we CURRENTLY HAVE NOW, not the we MAY ACQUIRE IN THE FUTURE. And it lists 10.6billion for Tempest which feels about right - if you add up all the various expenditure to date and the current legal commitments. Not 2 billion, 10 billion, by the UK alone.
It's a regular mistake from journalists and 'experts'. Most have zero idea how the IPA and GMPP work. Hence the regular headlines about Red RAG statuses meaning something won't get delivered....if you've ever worked on GMPP you'd know that RAG ratings don't exactly work like that, or follow the exact IPA guidance....I've pointed this out to a couple of them before but then they repeat the mistake a year later. I work on GMPP stuff, been rated Red for years...only to deliver early, at lower cost and far greater benefits than anyone thought possible....only went Green in the last 3 months. But...the RAG status was correct all the way through...
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SD67 »

Funny, the current year's GMPP report has upgraded Tempest from Red/amber to Amber which rather supports your point
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Timmymagic »

SD67 wrote: 03 May 2023, 08:21 Funny, the current year's GMPP report has upgraded Tempest from Red/amber to Amber which rather supports your point
I'm afraid thats because they've just switched to 3 point scale for the Transparency Returns. The only choices are Red, Amber and Green now. No more Red/Amber's or Amber/Greens I'm afraid. Still its good that it has fallen towards Amber rather than Red. Personally I think its a mistake, the 5 point scale gave you the ability to add some nuance to the rating. But perhaps that was lost on a lot of the policymakers that were looking at it.

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by albedo »

More background dissection to the Bronk paper here:


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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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albedo wrote: 03 May 2023, 15:05 More background dissection to the Bronk paper here:
All I'll say about Bronk is he's also banging the drum for Gripen for Ukraine. Despite the fact there are hardly any available (which if he knew the position of the Gripen fleet he'd know). He was also utterly unaware of the fact that Gripen C cannot use Meteor to anywhere close to its maximum range due to the fact that the missile outranges the radar by quite a margin (only Gripen E's ES-05 should have enough punch, but even then its probably just enough).
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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I find it even more entertaining that despite all the talk for latest big and fancy aircraft that when there’s a war on, when all the talking head are asked what to send they continually say F16 and or gripen because they are the easiest to maintain and have more support available to keep in the fight..

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Phil Sayers »

Still loads of A / B model Hornets knocking around, many of which have been updated to near C / D standard. I have read before that the original Hornets have great reliability and ease of maintenance while the main criticism (too short-ranged) does not really apply to Ukraine as the range they do have will still comfortably cover all of occupied Ukraine.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by Timmymagic »

SW1 wrote: 04 May 2023, 12:44 I find it even more entertaining that despite all the talk for latest big and fancy aircraft that when there’s a war on, when all the talking head are asked what to send they continually say F16 and or gripen because they are the easiest to maintain and have more support available to keep in the fight..
It's the unimproved airstrips bit that gets me....

Gripen's operating from a road schtick is massively oversold by Saab, the Swedish BAS90 system was never full deployed, but also all those lovely roads are right next to main air bases....essentially they're just additional runways. Its still utterly reliant on main bases....the only post war, true base independent, operations for a modern combat aircraft was the RAF with GR.1/3....

Gripen is also not designed for 'rough field' operations...those roads are specially built to the same standards as runways and are fully maintained, swept of FOD...the lot. It isn't a MiG-29 with intake FOD guards....Gripens engine inlets are closer to the ground than Typhoons....

But dimwit defence analysts swallow the bull....but air forces don't...

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by mrclark303 »

Timmymagic wrote: 04 May 2023, 21:59
SW1 wrote: 04 May 2023, 12:44 I find it even more entertaining that despite all the talk for latest big and fancy aircraft that when there’s a war on, when all the talking head are asked what to send they continually say F16 and or gripen because they are the easiest to maintain and have more support available to keep in the fight..
It's the unimproved airstrips bit that gets me....

Gripen's operating from a road schtick is massively oversold by Saab, the Swedish BAS90 system was never full deployed, but also all those lovely roads are right next to main air bases....essentially they're just additional runways. Its still utterly reliant on main bases....the only post war, true base independent, operations for a modern combat aircraft was the RAF with GR.1/3....

Gripen is also not designed for 'rough field' operations...those roads are specially built to the same standards as runways and are fully maintained, swept of FOD...the lot. It isn't a MiG-29 with intake FOD guards....Gripens engine inlets are closer to the ground than Typhoons....

But dimwit defence analysts swallow the bull....but air forces don't...
In reality, it comes down to surplus F16's. It strikes the right balance of AA/AG capability, availability and operating costs.

Upgraded to the latest standard, is still more than capable of giving Ivan a really bloody nose.

One point re the Gripen and it's potential radar range.

In reality if a Swedish Gripen had to engage an Su35 over the Baltic, you are still going to see Ivan hanging from his parachute.

Gripen has a very small frontal radar signature, Su27 absolutely enoumous in comparison. Simply put, Gripen is going to get a meteor off the rails before the Flanker, every time....

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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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RUSI counter argument.

I recommend following "the other chris". Does similar stuff for all UKD subjects.
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

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Nice article, quality stuff thanks
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Re: Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

Post by SW1 »

https://www.baesystems.com/en/product/m ... 16f24cc85b

The project involves the Ministry of Defence and the Team Tempest industry partners, led by BAE Systems, and a number of companies across the UK.

The first flight of the combat air demonstrator aircraft is set to take place within the next five years.

The flying demonstrator will be a piloted supersonic aircraft testing a range of new technologies including integration of stealth compatible features.

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