Here is my attempt at what is achievable by 2026 with a slightly increasing budget per annum.
Reorganisation of UK Land/Maritime Forces by 2026(Gradual 0.1% increase per annum to 2.5% GDP by 2026.)
Main Changes:
- Invest majority of rising defence budget in Army/RN/RM/RFA recruitment and retention. Increasing the headcount back to a sensible level is paramount before any new big ticket items or programs are considered.
- Move British Army primary focus in Europe to ensuring the defence of the Nordic countries.
- Introduce 4 LRGs comprised from 40 and 42 Commando.
- Procure 2 vessels. One commercial FloFlo joint logistics vessel to support RM and one 100m-120m commercial security/HADR vessel for Caribbean.
- Add permanent 1000sqm hangers to the 3 Bays. Large enough to embark 6 Merlin.
-Form specialist British Army ARctic/Mountain Brigade (ARM) plus one specialist Arctic/Mountain Ranger Battalion to concentrate on partnering with JEF countries.
- Increase Gurkhas to 3 Battalions with artillery, logistics and engineering support.
- Ensure 3Cdo Bde, 16AAB and Gurkha Bde are fully deployable and independent of each other.
- This would allow for a UK RED or Rapid Expeditionary Division to be formed as a
maximum effort, augmented or complemented with armoured/strike Brigades/Battlegroups as required. The availability of a high readiness Battlegroup from each of the 3Cdo, 16AAB, Gurkha Brigades would be the primary objective in normal circumstances.
- Property kit Army Ranger Battalions to slot into Nordic forces at short notice at anytime of the year.
-
U.K.
>Form LRG(N) in UK with 40 Commando
- 1x Albion
- Argus
- Supplemented by escorts and Gibraltar based Bay LSS as required.
- Maintain high readiness CSG from the two CVFs.
-
North Atlantic / JEF:
> Camp Viking repurposed as British Army ARM Brigade HQ and Artic Warfare Training Centre
> Form British Army Arctic/Mountain Brigade fully capable of fighting in Arctic and Sub-Arctic 12 months of the year.
> Rotate Ranger Battalions through Nordic AO plus form one specialist Arctic/Mountain Ranger Battalion.
> In addition to ARM Brigade based at Viking rotate three British Army Battlegroups through the Nordic countries as UKs main contribution to NATO Europe land forces. Properly kit out one Brigade sized force (in addition to Army Rangers) to fight and win in the Arctic regardless of time of year. Prioritise mobility over armour and invest heavily in mobile artillery, deep fires, antitank and surface to air.
> RM to permanently provide one Company to focus on securing Norwegian Littoral but maintain RM Artic training as before.
> Procure replacements for LCVPs and LCUs suitable for global deployment but also suitable for Norway/Baltic.
> Procure commercial FloFlo joint logistics vessel to support and transport RM and RN patrol craft around Norway/Baltic and across to UK.
-
South Atlantic & APT(N):
> Maintain RB2 at Falklands. Add forward based commercially derived maritime security/HADR ship in Caribbean.
-
North and West Africa
> Forward base one Company from 40 Commando at Gibraltar to form LRG(W).
> Forward base one RB2 and Bay LSS at Gibraltar to concentrate on East Africa and the Med. Regular RB2 patrols to Ascension, BOTs and South Atlantic to support Falkland RB2 if required. Replace Gib RB2 with T31 ASAP.
-
Gulf and East Africa:
> Forward base LRG(S) and 42 Commando in Oman.
> Forward base at Duqm:
- 1x T45
- 1x T23ASW
- 1x T23GP
- 1x Albion
- 1x Bay LSS
>Maintain Kipion with whatever assets are required going forward
-
Pacifc Region
> Form LRG(E) with one Company from 42 Commando in Singapore
- 1x T23GP
- 1x RB2
- 1x Wave
> Forward Base second Wave at Diego Garcia
> Regular port visits to Perth to ensure seamless interoperability with RAN and ADF.
> Ensure CSG deployment EoS at least once per year.
British Army
The overall effect would be a Nordic Tilt for the British Army but with improved Rapid Reaction global capabilities. An increase in highly trained/equipped light infantry plus support would swell the troop numbers back up to an acceptable level. Mobility would be prioritised over more expensive armoured vehicle programs but the extra cash would also be spent on mobile artillery, deep fires, anti tank capabilities and surface to air systems.
Royal Navy and Royal Marines
RN and RM would expand a persistent global presence, able to influence and support allies whilst not concentrating too heavily in any one area. 3Cdo Bde would retain the ability to deploy as a Bridgade but still maintain the trajectory of the FCF raiding ethos.
RN would receive two new ships. One converted commercial vessel for maritime security and HADR in the Caribbean and a FloFlo to support RM primarily in Norway but globally if required. The FloFlo would be a game changing capability to allow numerous RM craft to be transported, repaired and maintained plus help move logistics around the fjords. Globally this vessel could carry many extra landing craft in the event of an amphibious landing to reinforce those carried in the well docks. The Bays would get permanent hangers, large enough to embark 6 Merlin. This would still allow two Chinooks to operate from the flight deck concurrently. RM would maintain Artic training but let the Army take the lead over the Nordic land area. This would allow the FCF to form 4 scalable LRGs in UK, Gibraltar, Duqm and Singapore.
How best to defend the Nordics is an interesting question but if the UK takes the lead the British Army needs to get serious about the Arctic and fast. A long term commitment to rotate 3 Battlegroups through Norway, Finland and Estonia seems realistic with dispersed units of Army Rangers helping to improve interoperability throughout the JEF area. The ability to reinforce this commitment with 3 further Battlegroups within 10 days from 3Cdo, 16AAB and the Gurkhas as part of UK RED would be excellent and virtually unique amongst European NATO members.
Spending big on additional purchases of heavily armoured vehicles for the Army is a popular view but a more numerous, lighter, more flexible and rapidly deployable force backed up by devastating levels of artillery all kept safe under an effective umbrella of short and long range air defence seems like a more logical direction of travel for the UK.
Finland and Sweden joining NATO has changed everything and current planning must adapt quickly.
Just my opinion.