Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Contains threads on Royal Air Force equipment of the past, present and future.
SW1
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SW1 »

Why would you want to sell to Saudi when they are cosying up to China’s security pac.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by topman »

Because they've no sense of vfm and they throw billions about like nobodies business.

Seriously, i think they don't get criticism in Beijing, they have no care of what they do.

Tricky business being worried about ethics. Can be expensive.
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SD67 »

SW1 wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 18:23 Why would you want to sell to Saudi when they are cosying up to China’s security pac.
Scary prospect. The west need to redouble efforts to keep powerful on the fence states like KSA and India in our camp.
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SW1 »

This is all true and money usually talks but the prospect of your latest tech end up being shared with China would make me tread very carefully.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by mrclark303 »

inch wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 18:02 The only thing is with GCAP in future,I'm sure the Americans will try to exert pressure on GCAP partners in other ways to curtail sale's to countries that the US doesn't like ,so could limit GCAP sales ,ie if you sell GCAP to this country we will not supply you with parts for other programs like F35b which you still operating,ie US still blackmail GCAP partners to US advantage and sales for their products
Spot on ....

At the end of the day, Uncle Sam is the founder of the feast, they totally underwrite and prop up the West's defence, while we in the UK have effectively disarmed over the last 30 years.

That buys you direct influence and so it should, they foot the defence bill after all.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by topman »

SW1 wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 18:44 This is all true and money usually talks but the prospect of your latest tech end up being shared with China would make me tread very carefully.
Thing with that is to draw them in with us, how do we give them what they want from china? We can ditch them or try and 'win' them back?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

Timmymagic wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 00:57 So updating the list...changes in Red since last time...

This means that the order, and near certain order, books for Typhoon are fairly healthy...

Ordered or due to be... - On contract in Bold
38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga

24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Not ordered yet but must be close
15+ x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered.
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
Total - 122+ Typhoon, including new EK variant

Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon

Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Total - 179-239 x Typhoon* (both numbers include 20 to Chile as resale rather than new production, all new Turkish production and 50 to Germany)

*Please note this number is complicated due to potential resale of Tranche 1 Typhoon to 2 potential operators (both very unlikely though).

Removed
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Serbia - a very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments.
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).

Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus. All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...

Also to note. All future deliveries of Typhoon from Project Quadriga onwards will be of Tranche 4 onwards. The Qatari and Kuwaiti Tranche 3's are the last ones.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

SiVisPacemParaBellum wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 16:24 Germany has ordered 38 (not 28) project Quadrigas.
Typo on my part, I've amended.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SW1 »

topman wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 19:20
SW1 wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 18:44 This is all true and money usually talks but the prospect of your latest tech end up being shared with China would make me tread very carefully.
Thing with that is to draw them in with us, how do we give them what they want from china? We can ditch them or try and 'win' them back?
With China doing $90 billion trade with Saudi every year largely oil and chemicals and relations with Saudi and Washington being frosty I don’t really know if they can or indeed if they want to be won back.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SD67 »

Total trade with KSA is about 15 billion for the UK, 10 bn for Italy and 40 bn for Japan. Not to be sneezed at.
Then there’s the long standing historical ties, soft power, sons at Sandhurst etc. When I was in Saudi as a kid it seemed like Saudia airlines was an RAF retirement plan.
I’d say all to play for.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by ThreeHeadedLion »

SW1 wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 20:09With China doing $90 billion trade with Saudi every year largely oil and chemicals and relations with Saudi and Washington being frosty I don’t really know if they can or indeed if they want to be won back.
It is very unlikely that the Saudi relationship can be fully repaired to the extent it was at the turn of the century.

The Arab spring alone was enough to spook the Saudis of it reaching their shores someday. And if that wasn't enough the US president openly threatening to make them a global pariah state would have done the rest.

To top it all off, the western leaders threaten to put them out of business through our net zero goals.

I cant see what exactly the west is offering them after they have been faithful underwriters of western prosperity for last 50 years.

SD67 wrote: 31 Mar 2023, 02:42 Total trade with KSA is about 15 billion for the UK, 10 bn for Italy and 40 bn for Japan. Not to be sneezed at.
Then there’s the long standing historical ties, soft power, sons at Sandhurst etc. When I was in Saudi as a kid it seemed like Saudia airlines was an RAF retirement plan.
I’d say all to play for.
You said the same thing in the Tempest thread as well, I think this is now just nostalgia. The world has changed post arab spring and Iraq war. From the Saudi PVO it is only prudent to seek other security guarantors in China and Russia just in case the west decides to go after them.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SD67 »

The country most directly affected by the Arab Spring was Egypt which is now on the verge of signing a multi billion deal with Italy including Typhoon.
Al Yamanah has just been extended for another 5 years - that’s real revenue. and Wallace and KSA have just signed the partnership / study into long term air cooperation.
Of course the Saudis will hedge their bets they always have. But the fact is they have been de facto at war with Russia for the last 8 years in Yemen and before that for over a decade in Afghanistan. Plus a Cold War with Russia-backed Iran. There are tens of thousands of westerners working all over KSA and they’re not being paid in nostalgia tokens

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

It's worth noting that, although many will not like this in the slightest, for very good reasons, the UK has also stuck with them through the Yemen conflict and has not restricted supplies. Essentially the UK has continued being, in Saudi eyes, a reliable supplier.
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SW1 »

The sands are shifting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/foreign-m ... 023-04-06/

BEIJING/RIYADH, April 6 (Reuters) - The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met in Beijing on Thursday for the first formal gathering of their top diplomats in more than seven years, after China brokered a deal to restore relations between the top regional powers.

After years of hostility that fuelled conflicts across the Middle East, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to end their diplomatic rift and reopen diplomatic missions in a significant deal facilitated by China last month.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Phil Sayers »

I am far from convinced this will make any difference at all, even if both countries were to sincerely wish a drastic change in their relationship. Simply too many different regional disagreements such as over Yemen, Iran's influence on Iraq and the Assad regime which is compounded by escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington which Riyadh will struggle to not be impacted by. Then there is Iran's nuclear programme - even if the Saudis were to believe that the wider relationship has been 'fixed' they will still be very, very far from comfortable with a situation whereby Iran has the bomb and they do not (indeed I imagine the Saudis would rapidly institute their own programme with Pakistan's assistance).
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SD67 »

Timmymagic wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 19:27
Timmymagic wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 00:57 So updating the list...changes in Red since last time...

This means that the order, and near certain order, books for Typhoon are fairly healthy...

Ordered or due to be... - On contract in Bold
38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga

24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Not ordered yet but must be close
15+ x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered.
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
Total - 122+ Typhoon, including new EK variant

Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon

Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Total - 179-239 x Typhoon* (both numbers include 20 to Chile as resale rather than new production, all new Turkish production and 50 to Germany)

*Please note this number is complicated due to potential resale of Tranche 1 Typhoon to 2 potential operators (both very unlikely though).

Removed
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Serbia - a very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments.
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).

Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus. All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...

Also to note. All future deliveries of Typhoon from Project Quadriga onwards will be of Tranche 4 onwards. The Qatari and Kuwaiti Tranche 3's are the last ones.
This is my take - I'm a pessimist by nature LOL.
According to published timelines, what is literally on contract now is :

Qatar + Kuwait takes Warton to 2025
Germany - from 2025 till about 2028/9
Spain - out to 2030
ECRS upgrade - out to 2030

At what are probably minimum activity levels. After 2030 the place should really be gearing up for GCAP. So it is just about manageable with what is in hand now.

I admit Middle east politics is confusing at the moment so I put Saudi, Egypt and Turkey all in the same "Believe it when I see it" category, and a small tranche 4 for the RAF in the "far too sensible for the MOD" box.

Most likely IMHO are a dozen or so more for Spain and Germany each in the early 2030s as they throw a bone to their local industry lobbies, FCAS being at least 5 years behind GCAP.
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by wargame_insomniac »

SW1 wrote: 06 Apr 2023, 12:10 The sands are shifting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/foreign-m ... 023-04-06/

BEIJING/RIYADH, April 6 (Reuters) - The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia met in Beijing on Thursday for the first formal gathering of their top diplomats in more than seven years, after China brokered a deal to restore relations between the top regional powers.

After years of hostility that fuelled conflicts across the Middle East, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to end their diplomatic rift and reopen diplomatic missions in a significant deal facilitated by China last month.
Please can we keep the global politics out of this thread and keep at least SOME relevance to the Typhoon?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Spitfire9 »

Timmymagic wrote: 30 Mar 2023, 19:27
Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..

Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus. All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...
Re: Chile - why choose used Typhoons when there are lots of used F-16's kicking around?

Re: Malaysia - just went for KAI FA-50 as LIFT. More FA-50 would seem sensible for their fighter requirement. If not FA-50, it would make more sense to wait for KF-21 than to get Typhoon (being an old design and extremely expensive to buy and to operate).

Re: Turkey - Congress managing to block F-16 is looking less likely now that Turkey has let Finland join NATO.

Re: Saudi Arabia - SA seems to be moving away from US. UK is closely allied to US. France not so much so. However, Dassault is more or less swamped with Rafale orders, so perhaps they would not be able to supply for many years, ruling it out and ruling Typhoon back in as second preference. Question is: when, if ever, would SA order?

Any chance of any of the Gulf states giving a top up order?

I would think that the only new customer Eurofighter will get is Egypt.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SD67 »

I tend to agree.

The Spanish and German orders give minimum base load until 2030, maybe small follow ons to stretch it to 2032/3.

Everything else frankly looks like pure hope, except MAYBE Egypt. And once you get to the late 2020s how hard will BAE and Italy be pushing Typhoon given Tempest is imminent.

A Hawk replacement built at Warton in the early 2030s might be a nice gap filler - SAAB T7 local assembly?

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Spitfire9 »

KSA becoming more likely to place a further Typhoon order?

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/04/aft ... -approval/

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Spitfire9 »

WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's administration notified Congress on Monday of the planned sale to Turkey of avionics software upgrades for its current fleet of F-16 fighter aircraft, a deal valued at up to $259 million.

The deal, first reported by Reuters earlier on Monday, moves ahead with the sale of the modernization package for Turkey's aircraft, after leaders of U.S. congressional committees gave informal approval.

A larger agreement, NATO member Turkey's request to buy billions of dollars worth of F-16s, remains in limbo amid continuing opposition in Congress.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-04-17/

It looks like Eurofighter's chances of receiving an order have been reduced.

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by SD67 »

That's a tiny contract given their fleet is 200+

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Timmymagic »

First Radar 2 delivered to BAE Systems for integration.

https://www.edrmagazine.eu/first-ecrs-m ... ntegration
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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by Spitfire9 »

Turkish foreign minister is asking for money back on F-35. This could inject extra tensions into an F-16 deal with US, raising the chances of Turkey buying something else (eg Typhoon) to cover requirements up to the time TF-X is integrated into the Turkish air force.

Indian source: https://idrw.org/turkiye-does-not-ask-t ... ore-311440

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Re: Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

Post by TheLoneRanger »

Spitfire9 wrote: 08 May 2023, 11:11 Turkish foreign minister is asking for money back on F-35. This could inject extra tensions into an F-16 deal with US, raising the chances of Turkey buying something else (eg Typhoon) to cover requirements up to the time TF-X is integrated into the Turkish air force.

Indian source: https://idrw.org/turkiye-does-not-ask-t ... ore-311440
The Americans have really messed up their relationship with Turkey. They sanctioned Turkey for buying the S400 ( imho - they should not have bought this junk .. ) but then did not sanction India for buying ther S400. That kind of lack of even handed approach really sticks with the Turks. The Kaan jet is a reflection of the fact that Turkey is large enough to go its own way if it choses to do so ...

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