Timmymagic wrote: ↑30 Mar 2023, 00:57
So updating the list...changes in Red since last time...
This means that the order, and near certain order, books for Typhoon are fairly healthy...
Ordered or due to be... - On contract in Bold
28 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Not ordered yet but must be close
15+ x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered.
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
Total - 112+ Typhoon, including new EK variant
Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon
Potential Orders...in order of probability..
50 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Moved to potential as unclear what Germany is up to...the impact of inflation on the German budget increase has caused issues, still highly likely though..
48-72 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Saudi Arabia - still in the works allegedly, but very quiet.. - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. Large Saudi delegation recently at Warton as well...
25 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain - Potential for another 25 under a 'Project Halcon 4', probably won't happen though.
20+ x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - Ex-RAF aircraft. Can't see it myself, but still rate it higher than Turkey.
24-48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Probably cobblers, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' of T1's Or 48 Tranche 3A.
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese again, KF-21 a possibility after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, that is mired in corruption allegations as usual..
Total - 179-239 x Typhoon* (both numbers include 20 to Chile as resale rather than new production, all new Turkish production and 50 to Germany)
*Please note this number is complicated due to potential resale of Tranche 1 Typhoon to 2 potential operators (both very unlikely though).
Removed
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Serbia - a very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments.
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).
Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reasonably reach 240. Any more than that would be a massive bonus.
All over to Airbus for the German orders, Leonardo for the Egyptian one and most of all BAE for the Saudi order...Hopefully we'll see some serious thought into either retaining Tranche 1 or gifting them to Ukraine in the medium term...
Also to note. All future deliveries of Typhoon from Project Quadriga onwards will be of Tranche 4 onwards. The Qatari and Kuwaiti Tranche 3's are the last ones.