Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[serge750]

it would be good if they can get cross party support to help out & give our joint partners more confidence in the project, british jobs for global britain - could be the political tag line

[dmereifield]

it would be good if they can get cross party support to help out & give our joint partners more confidence in the project, british jobs for global britain - could be the political tag line

That would be an excellent idea, I doubt it will happen as they will disagree on anything and everything to score cheap political points with each other. The national interest isn't even on the radar, if they can't agree to sort out a long term plan regarding social care, they will never agree to securing Tempest.

[mrclark303]

Though personally I do think LM have bigger fish to fry it sounds like a lot of risk and effort for a smallish prize
The only way Tempest gets cancelled is if it doesn’t work. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Wallace and Radakin take private soundings from the Opposition prior to the big commit.

It depends on what you regard as a smallish prize, if Tempest potentially takes hundreds of sales away from US industry and wider US influence as a result, it's a serious threat.

[mrclark303]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

We will see, if Germany follow form ( they certainly are so far), FCAS will shrink, probably more like 26 Tons, aka Thypoon size, 'if' it ever happens....

The F16 / Thypoon argument is slightly tail wagging the dog, you are looking at the problem the wrong way round, the F16/ Tornado F3 lease was to cover a temporary gap caused by the delay of Eurofighter into service and to retire the hopelessly obsolete (but still wonderfully charismatic) Starfighter that was just about militarily useless by the 1990's...

Now comparing the hugely capable F35 to the potential Tempest configuration is slightly bemusing, it's two aircraft to do more or less the same job with broadly comparable capability, over the same time frame.....

It's an extremely expensive duplication of resources in a cash strapped era....

We will see....

[Spitfire9]

Don't like to break up the pleasantry and repartee but...

I read the 9 December 2022 statement issued by the UK prime minister's office, part of which I show below:

The UK, Italy and Japan will now work intensively to establish the core platform concept and set up the structures needed to deliver this massive defence project, ready to launch the development phase in 2025. Ahead of the development phase, partners will also agree the cost-sharing arrangements based on a joint assessment of costs and national budgets.

To me this looks like a continuation of the level of certainty achieved by the Tempest programme - funded as a programme to investigate potential designs and technologies that might be incorporated in an advanced fighter. As I understand things, a decision to proceed to a definitive design will not be taken until 2025. Japan has taken the decision to equip itself with a 6G aircraft. I am unaware of the depth to which Italy is committed to GCAS or will be committed should its requirements differ from those of Britain and Japan to the point of unacceptable incompatibility.

The English Electric Lightning was designed for the very specific, British purpose of rapidly getting up and over the North Sea and shooting a couple of bombers down. Its suitability for other countries' needs and therefore its export prospects were dismal. I hope that whatever designs are considered for GCAP, the partners involved will have it in mind to formulate designs that do not ignore the potential market beyond the partner countries.

[SouthernOne]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

We will see, if Germany follow form ( they certainly are so far), FCAS will shrink, probably more like 26 Tons, aka Thypoon size, 'if' it ever happens....

The F16 / Thypoon argument is slightly tail wagging the dog, you are looking at the problem the wrong way round, the F16/ Tornado F3 lease was to cover a temporary gap caused by the delay of Eurofighter into service and to retire the hopelessly obsolete (but still wonderfully charismatic) Starfighter that was just about militarily useless by the 1990's...

Now comparing the hugely capable F35 to the potential Tempest configuration is slightly bemusing, it's two aircraft to do more or less the same job with broadly comparable capability, over the same time frame.....

It's an extremely expensive duplication of resources in a cash strapped era....

We will see....

And there are already significant enhancements to the F-35 already planned or in testing such as adaptive cycle engines; GE's XA100 and P&W's XA101. The sheer scale of the F-35 program will pretty much guarantee a well funded and resourced program of upgrades for decades.

[mrclark303]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

We will see, if Germany follow form ( they certainly are so far), FCAS will shrink, probably more like 26 Tons, aka Thypoon size, 'if' it ever happens....

The F16 / Thypoon argument is slightly tail wagging the dog, you are looking at the problem the wrong way round, the F16/ Tornado F3 lease was to cover a temporary gap caused by the delay of Eurofighter into service and to retire the hopelessly obsolete (but still wonderfully charismatic) Starfighter that was just about militarily useless by the 1990's...

Now comparing the hugely capable F35 to the potential Tempest configuration is slightly bemusing, it's two aircraft to do more or less the same job with broadly comparable capability, over the same time frame.....

It's an extremely expensive duplication of resources in a cash strapped era....

We will see....

And there are already significant enhancements to the F-35 already planned or in testing such as adaptive cycle engines; GE's XA100 and P&W's XA101. The sheer scale of the F-35 program will pretty much guarantee a well funded and resourced program of upgrades for decades.

Absolutely, F35 will end up a different beast from from todays machine, in much the same way as the 1978 vintage F16A to the current Block 70.

[serge750]

Is not the F35 prime mission strike with a ability to defend itself as opposed to the Tempest project aim to deliver a air dominance fighter that can drop bombs, if you can afford both then good, but some nations can't, so are just going for the F35 which will be good, but could a F35 beat an F22 in the air dominance roll ? typhoon is mainly designed for air dominance with secondary ground attack roll & will need replacing + It will be a UK/Japanese etc project with all the associated benefits & costs - so I say if we can get it to work go for it

[Ron5]

Don't like to break up the pleasantry and repartee but...

I read the 9 December 2022 statement issued by the UK prime minister's office, part of which I show below:

The UK, Italy and Japan will now work intensively to establish the core platform concept and set up the structures needed to deliver this massive defence project, ready to launch the development phase in 2025. Ahead of the development phase, partners will also agree the cost-sharing arrangements based on a joint assessment of costs and national budgets.

To me this looks like a continuation of the level of certainty achieved by the Tempest programme - funded as a programme to investigate potential designs and technologies that might be incorporated in an advanced fighter. As I understand things, a decision to proceed to a definitive design will not be taken until 2025. Japan has taken the decision to equip itself with a 6G aircraft. I am unaware of the depth to which Italy is committed to GCAS or will be committed should its requirements differ from those of Britain and Japan to the point of unacceptable incompatibility.

The English Electric Lightning was designed for the very specific, British purpose of rapidly getting up and over the North Sea and shooting a couple of bombers down. Its suitability for other countries' needs and therefore its export prospects were dismal. I hope that whatever designs are considered for GCAP, the partners involved will have it in mind to formulate designs that do not ignore the potential market beyond the partner countries.

On the contrary, I think this is a terrible idea. Getting requirements from the RAF, AM & JASDF boiled down to an agreed set will be hard enough without the contributions of a bunch of dippie aircraft marketing & sales folk muddying the water with their dreamy wish lists.

I can't think of any aircraft that exported well (except maybe the F-5) that was designed to actually be exportable. All the great ones were designed for a national need that they delivered with a combination of excellency and affordability. A better mouse trap was invented and countries lined up flapping their checkbooks.

Now I have read stories that the UK wanted a Tempest that was more Hunter-like than F-22 and that indeed would enhance its sales prospects. But I sincerely hope that means that the RAF doesn't want an aircraft so exquisite that only a handful can be afforded but would rather compromise in some areas to get the price down to a point the aircraft could be operated in quantity.

To head off one counterpoint, unmanned wingmen, I think, will wither and die as a concept fairly quickly so I don't see them being any kind of solution for the affordability issue as some commentators argue.

By the way and slightly off topic, in terms of numbers of airframes, not dollars or pounds, which UK aircraft enjoyed the greatest export success?

[mrclark303]

Is not the F35 prime mission strike with a ability to defend itself as opposed to the Tempest project aim to deliver a air dominance fighter that can drop bombs, if you can afford both then good, but some nations can't, so are just going for the F35 which will be good, but could a F35 beat an F22 in the air dominance roll ? typhoon is mainly designed for air dominance with secondary ground attack roll & will need replacing + It will be a UK/Japanese etc project with all the associated benefits & costs - so I say if we can get it to work go for it

I think the F35 could (in a strange alternative universe) theoretically beat an F22, it's radar and avionics are a generation ahead of the F22, all it has to do is get close enough into the AMRAAM no escape zone and the F22 is toast.

It's obvious advantage of merged targeting data, thanks to its all round optronic senors would give it the edge...

If the F22 saw it first, the F35 would be in a tough corner, but his vastly better situational awareness of the F35 pilot, would still be a huge advantage..

As far as Tempest goes, if the deal does go south, the fall back is obviously F35, it's still a great machine, so it wouldn't be the end of the world as far as the RAF were concerned....

[SW1]

The reason for tempest is the result of industrial considerations and black boxes.

If the cameri facility was in Warton, the F136 in Bristol and the ACURL facility somewhere in waddington I very much doubt that tempest would exist.

[Spitfire9]

By the way and slightly off topic, in terms of numbers of airframes, not dollars or pounds, which UK aircraft enjoyed the greatest export success?

Quite a broad question
- any era?
- military aircraft only?
- includes aircraft built under licence?

I have little interest in military aircraft pre-1935.
I would go for Tiger Moth as the most exported or licence-built trainer.
My guess is that Spitfire was the most exported or licence-built fighter, probably followed by Vampire/Venom, probably followed by Hunter. I would go for Canberra as the most exported or licence-built bomber.

If I had to choose between those, I would choose Tiger Moth as the biggest export seller.

Do you happen to know the answer to your question?

[Meriv9]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

We will see, if Germany follow form ( they certainly are so far), FCAS will shrink, probably more like 26 Tons, aka Thypoon size, 'if' it ever happens....

The F16 / Thypoon argument is slightly tail wagging the dog, you are looking at the problem the wrong way round, the F16/ Tornado F3 lease was to cover a temporary gap caused by the delay of Eurofighter into service and to retire the hopelessly obsolete (but still wonderfully charismatic) Starfighter that was just about militarily useless by the 1990's...

Now comparing the hugely capable F35 to the potential Tempest configuration is slightly bemusing, it's two aircraft to do more or less the same job with broadly comparable capability, over the same time frame.....

It's an extremely expensive duplication of resources in a cash strapped era....

We will see....

I will rephrase since probably you didn't understood.

You said that the F-35 can cover Italian needs.

So what i meant is:

F-35 stands to the F-16 as Tempest stands for Typhoon.

Which Med menace in the 1980/90s were too much for the F-16?

[Meriv9]

Don't like to break up the pleasantry and repartee but...

I read the 9 December 2022 statement issued by the UK prime minister's office, part of which I show below:

The UK, Italy and Japan will now work intensively to establish the core platform concept and set up the structures needed to deliver this massive defence project, ready to launch the development phase in 2025. Ahead of the development phase, partners will also agree the cost-sharing arrangements based on a joint assessment of costs and national budgets.

To me this looks like a continuation of the level of certainty achieved by the Tempest programme - funded as a programme to investigate potential designs and technologies that might be incorporated in an advanced fighter. As I understand things, a decision to proceed to a definitive design will not be taken until 2025. Japan has taken the decision to equip itself with a 6G aircraft. I am unaware of the depth to which Italy is committed to GCAS or will be committed should its requirements differ from those of Britain and Japan to the point of unacceptable incompatibility.

Money has already been allocated, and the lack of opposition is kinda surprising in respect to what i remembered happened back then with the F-35. I think you can assume the same level of depth as UK and quantity proportional to the cash we can invest in the project.

The English Electric Lightning was designed for the very specific, British purpose of rapidly getting up and over the North Sea and shooting a couple of bombers down. Its suitability for other countries' needs and therefore its export prospects were dismal. I hope that whatever designs are considered for GCAP, the partners involved will have it in mind to formulate designs that do not ignore the potential market beyond the partner countries.

What you just described is an interceptor, what you thought was the role of the F-104? climb fast, intercept.
It wasnt that it was an english suited only plane, simple there were other stronger commercial competitors...

Please lets not buy mrclark hypothesis that Italians have a different requirement than the UK.

[mrclark303]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

We will see, if Germany follow form ( they certainly are so far), FCAS will shrink, probably more like 26 Tons, aka Thypoon size, 'if' it ever happens....

The F16 / Thypoon argument is slightly tail wagging the dog, you are looking at the problem the wrong way round, the F16/ Tornado F3 lease was to cover a temporary gap caused by the delay of Eurofighter into service and to retire the hopelessly obsolete (but still wonderfully charismatic) Starfighter that was just about militarily useless by the 1990's...

Now comparing the hugely capable F35 to the potential Tempest configuration is slightly bemusing, it's two aircraft to do more or less the same job with broadly comparable capability, over the same time frame.....

It's an extremely expensive duplication of resources in a cash strapped era....

We will see....

I will rephrase since probably you didn't understood.

You said that the F-35 can cover Italian needs.

So what i meant is:

F-35 stands to the F-16 as Tempest stands for Typhoon.

Which Med menace in the 1980/90s were too much for the F-16?

Evening Meriv, The simple answer would be absolutely none, but the F16's and Tornado F3's were short term leased to cover the gap between the withdrawal of Starfighter and introduction of Typhoon.

The F16's were never procured as a long term buy and retention of the fleet was never considered I believe.

[mrclark303]

Don't like to break up the pleasantry and repartee but...

I read the 9 December 2022 statement issued by the UK prime minister's office, part of which I show below:

The UK, Italy and Japan will now work intensively to establish the core platform concept and set up the structures needed to deliver this massive defence project, ready to launch the development phase in 2025. Ahead of the development phase, partners will also agree the cost-sharing arrangements based on a joint assessment of costs and national budgets.

To me this looks like a continuation of the level of certainty achieved by the Tempest programme - funded as a programme to investigate potential designs and technologies that might be incorporated in an advanced fighter. As I understand things, a decision to proceed to a definitive design will not be taken until 2025. Japan has taken the decision to equip itself with a 6G aircraft. I am unaware of the depth to which Italy is committed to GCAS or will be committed should its requirements differ from those of Britain and Japan to the point of unacceptable incompatibility.

Money has already been allocated, and the lack of opposition is kinda surprising in respect to what i remembered happened back then with the F-35. I think you can assume the same level of depth as UK and quantity proportional to the cash we can invest in the project.

The English Electric Lightning was designed for the very specific, British purpose of rapidly getting up and over the North Sea and shooting a couple of bombers down. Its suitability for other countries' needs and therefore its export prospects were dismal. I hope that whatever designs are considered for GCAP, the partners involved will have it in mind to formulate designs that do not ignore the potential market beyond the partner countries.

What you just described is an interceptor, what you thought was the role of the F-104? climb fast, intercept.
It wasnt that it was an english suited only plane, simple there were other stronger commercial competitors...

Please lets not buy mrclark hypothesis that Italians have a different requirement than the UK.

We will see Meriv, all will be revealed in the next two years as the cards are dealt.

I hope Italy stays the coarse and puts in a substantial order...

[Meriv9]

The reason for tempest is the result of industrial considerations and black boxes.

If the cameri facility was in Warton, the F136 in Bristol and the ACURL facility somewhere in waddington I very much doubt that tempest would exist.

This is the most important take away IMHO.

It is firstly an industrial project and only after a defense one. All industries are going trough rationalization, the drama of the European Steel isn't something isolated. And with the prospects like the automotive industry, the first objective is in my opinion, surviving Airbus/Dassault in this death race.

For this reason the idea of UK going US is IMHO out of place. Yes you can go alone with the US, but knowing perfectly well that the nexts in line to get eaten by European continental or US companies are your companies. (a situation similar to Italy in WW1 if central powers won it was obvious we were the next meal)

[mrclark303]

The reason for tempest is the result of industrial considerations and black boxes.

If the cameri facility was in Warton, the F136 in Bristol and the ACURL facility somewhere in waddington I very much doubt that tempest would exist.

This is the most important take away IMHO.

It is firstly an industrial project and only after a defense one. All industries are going trough rationalization, the drama of the European Steel isn't something isolated. And with the prospects like the automotive industry, the first objective is in my opinion, surviving Airbus/Dassault in this death race.

For this reason the idea of UK going US is IMHO out of place. Yes you can go alone with the US, but knowing perfectly well that the nexts in line to get eaten by European continental or US companies are your companies. (a situation similar to Italy in WW1 if central powers won it was obvious we were the next meal)

You make an excellent point, it's all to play for.

From a UK perspective, if Tempest is cancelled, it will mean F35 and probably BAE Systems absorbed into LM in fairly short order.

What will it mean for Italy, a second F35 order? join the Franco German Spanish effort?

Japan will probably default to type and produce a joint project with the US.

Two years from now we will all know.

The time scale to get Tempest into production by 2035 is 'extremely tight' and it will require all three countries unter contact, workshare, funding and project management agreed and a Company formed on behalf of the signatories to push the project along to a rigid time scale, all within the next two years!!

[SD67]

By the way and slightly off topic, in terms of numbers of airframes, not dollars or pounds, which UK aircraft enjoyed the greatest export success?

Quite a broad question
- any era?
- military aircraft only?
- includes aircraft built under licence?

I have little interest in military aircraft pre-1935.
I would go for Tiger Moth as the most exported or licence-built trainer.
My guess is that Spitfire was the most exported or licence-built fighter, probably followed by Vampire/Venom, probably followed by Hunter. I would go for Canberra as the most exported or licence-built bomber.

If I had to choose between those, I would choose Tiger Moth as the biggest export seller.

Do you happen to know the answer to your question?

Sorry but I meant military aircraft. And no, I don't know the answer. I'd vote for your list not knowing any better

[serge750]

It is firstly an industrial project and only after a defense one.

That doesn't mean there isn't a defense need. All those Typhoons need replacing and as much as the little boys here think the F-35 will be an adequate replacement for Typhoon in the second half of this century, it will not be. Go check how the F-35's did in exercises against F-22's (spoiler, not well) and think that the F-22 has roots back in the 1980's. Not hard to imagine that China and maybe Russia will have an F-22 equivalent one day in the not to distant future. That's why the US is developing a 6 gen fighter.

I'm not sure exactly what @SW1 meant when he said if the F-35 was made in the UK, there would be no Tempest program. I don't know how a UK F-35 production line would address the UK industrial requirement for Tempest that goes far beyond license manufacture, and as I said, militarily it doesn't fit either.

[mrclark303]

It is firstly an industrial project and only after a defense one.

That doesn't mean there isn't a defense need. All those Typhoons need replacing and as much as the little boys here think the F-35 will be an adequate replacement for Typhoon in the second half of this century, it will not be. Go check how the F-35's did in exercises against F-22's (spoiler, not well) and think that the F-22 has roots back in the 1980's. Not hard to imagine that China and maybe Russia will have an F-22 equivalent one day in the not to distant future. That's why the US is developing a 6 gen fighter.

I'm not sure exactly what @SW1 meant when he said if the F-35 was made in the UK, there would be no Tempest program. I don't know how a UK F-35 production line would address the UK industrial requirement for Tempest that goes far beyond license manufacture, and as I said, militarily it doesn't fit either.

You do know that the UK is a tier one partner don't you Ron, so 'licence' manufacture wouldn't come into it.

Happy new year Mr Grumpy

[SouthernOne]

It is firstly an industrial project and only after a defense one.

That doesn't mean there isn't a defense need. All those Typhoons need replacing and as much as the little boys here think the F-35 will be an adequate replacement for Typhoon in the second half of this century, it will not be. Go check how the F-35's did in exercises against F-22's (spoiler, not well) and think that the F-22 has roots back in the 1980's. Not hard to imagine that China and maybe Russia will have an F-22 equivalent one day in the not to distant future. That's why the US is developing a 6 gen fighter.

I'm not sure exactly what @SW1 meant when he said if the F-35 was made in the UK, there would be no Tempest program. I don't know how a UK F-35 production line would address the UK industrial requirement for Tempest that goes far beyond license manufacture, and as I said, militarily it doesn't fit either.

As the only operator of F-22, the USAF/DoD will make sure they remain the only ones who have real knowledge of the relative performance and capabilities of both aircraft. It's just not in their interest to advertise how the F-22 performs as a weapon system in realistic combat scenarios.

The F-35 is different. The RAAF already know how it performs relative to upgraded F-18A/Bs and the F-18F Block 2. The Dutch and others already know how it performs against upgraded F-16s and by extrapolation current Block F-16s. The Japanese already know how it performs against F-15Cs, while the South Koreans already know how well it performs against advanced derivatives of the F-15E. Anecdotal evidence coming out of exercises like Pitch Black 2022 (flights of F-35A s being able to locate, track and launch against all aircraft in much larger flights of 4th generation aircraft without the latter even being aware of the F-35) is probably fairly accurate.

It's interesting that the USAF has been considering reducing its operational fleet of F-22s.

The UK is also in an odd position, being committed to a F-35B only fleet. Other operators already have aircraft with 1/3 rd more internal fuel / range, larger capacity internal weapons bays, and significantly higher levels of maneuverability; 9g compared to 7G.

[Little J]

Go check how the F-35's did in exercises against F-22's (spoiler, not well) and think that the F-22 has roots back in the 1980's.

As you well know, these sorts of exercises are usually limited in one way or another, to test for a specific scenario. Very rarely are the opposing forces allowed to go at it properly. Otherwise the Germans wouldn't have gotten a couple of F-22 kills a few years ago, using Tiffie's that are not only less advanced than the F-35, but in many ways are the least advanced of their type in service around the world!

[Ron5]

It is firstly an industrial project and only after a defense one.

That doesn't mean there isn't a defense need. All those Typhoons need replacing and as much as the little boys here think the F-35 will be an adequate replacement for Typhoon in the second half of this century, it will not be. Go check how the F-35's did in exercises against F-22's (spoiler, not well) and think that the F-22 has roots back in the 1980's. Not hard to imagine that China and maybe Russia will have an F-22 equivalent one day in the not to distant future. That's why the US is developing a 6 gen fighter.

I'm not sure exactly what @SW1 meant when he said if the F-35 was made in the UK, there would be no Tempest program. I don't know how a UK F-35 production line would address the UK industrial requirement for Tempest that goes far beyond license manufacture, and as I said, militarily it doesn't fit either.

You do know that the UK is a tier one partner don't you Ron, so 'licence' manufacture wouldn't come into it.

Happy new year Mr Grumpy

Not any more. Please keep up.

[Ron5]

Both @Little J and @Southernone are correct that exercises involving F-35 vs F-22 are not publicized. That's doesn't mean they dont happen.

Usually exercises involve F-22's working with F-35's against a red team but not always. There have been multiple exercises with F-22's piited against every aircraft in the US inventory including F-35's. And unofficial stories leak out.

I've mentioned before that my friend was (since retired to fly Delta) an F-16 pilot in the Arizona NG. He lead his squadron to Hawaii for a week practicing against their resident F-22's. In the entire week flying two sorties a day, the F-16's scored one kill. By my friend and in a WVR scenario that was more about aircraft maneuverability rather than anything else. He got lucky. Not all the scenarios were that suitable for the F-16 and every other day they went o-fer.

Stories leaking out regarding exercises with F-22 intercepting incoming F-35's tell a very similar story. Yes, the F-22 guys had a more difficult time but they still prevailed handily.

Reduction of F-22 fleets are more about economics than anything. Very expensive to keep flying.