Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[mrclark303]

Please state whom are your possible UK regional Aggressors vs Italian possible aggressors

EDIT: You realize that the distance between London and Saint Petersburg is shorter than the distance between Rome and Suez channel just to choose a strategic point of interest...

And how can you be sure of Algeria/Egypt (with F-15, Rafales, etc.. etc..) /Turkey (Mass of F-16 and local produced future crafts) airforces performances be inferior of the stellar track record of the VKS in Ukraine?

Just to name some.

Hi Mirev9,

Hmm, well with putting too fine a point on it, Russia and China, the UK has responsibility for policing a 'huge' area of national and NATO Airspace, Italy does not....

Russian aircraft are encountered almost daily and should ( god forbid) the new cold war turn hot, the UK would be at the very tip of the spear alongside Norway fighting over the North East Atlantic.

The UK has defence responsibilities in the Pacific area too, possibly engaging the Chinese in the future,as part of a coalition, technological superiority will be pivotal in facing down a far larger Chinese force.

Let's narrow down likely conflict areas that Italy might be part of, it won't be Turkey....

Let's say a Cold War gone hot, then it would be Russian aircraft, possibly based in the middle East.

The most capable of which is the Su35. The F35 should win every time with a long range missile shot..

The Su35 looks like an apartment block coming over the horizon on radar, while the F35 won't even be picked up until it's far too late to react by the Su35.

In reality the Su35 probably wouldn't even pick up the F35, only the warning as an AMRAAM is already on route.....

By all accounts Su35 avionics examined in the West ( thanks to helpful and grateful Ukrainians) have apparently proven to be no where near as capable as originally feared.

The Su35 is simply outclassed, it's only hope would be surviving to close the fight to within visual range, and the incredible situational awareness the F35 has, thanks to his extensive suite of avionics, would simply not allow this to happen.

He's not going to able to sneak up without the F35 tracking him every step of the way and presenting him with a missile for his trouble.

The flanker driver will be hanging from his parachute harness and wondering what the hell hit him every time.

[SD67]

I think Italy can pull their weight, they don't have Successor to finance, they've had some good export success as well plus F35 assembly. Technologically the Italians are right up there. Worst case scenario maybe it ends up as a "MBDA" type split but I wouldn't see Italy going below 25%.

[Meriv9]

No idea, I'm going to bet it is going to be less than UK and Jap, but not lagging too behind.

It will depend on how our economy proceed.
I will put it in spoiler since it is OT.

Italian economy explained in two graphs

In reality it lags since 1990, it means in 30 years our productivity didn't grow at all.
But at the same time we got this situation.


Means that Leonardo is probably more productive than BAE but the italian ecosystem around Leonardo sinks it.

The problem isn't in company culture(on the contrary!) but in socioeconomic structures. That means we can recover that productivity and that would be a huge boost (imagine 30years of growth!), can we make it? no idea.

IMHO talking of equal shares is counterproductive. You want a bigger share? No problem, but be sure to buy AW149, or even better the M346 as a trainer.

Better to fight with our partners over the development of some new department or to ask a setback in the ones where we have already the competitive advantage?

Rambling talking and guessing? I think it will end 35% Uk+ 30% Jap + 25% ITA + 10 SWE (or someone in place of them)

[mrclark303]

If I ran the Italian Air force, I would be questioning Tempest involvement, as it will divert needed funding on a duplication of capability.....

What we do ignore AMX, M346 and all programs we have to develop a national industry?
So It would be a duplication for Italy but not for Japan? Kinda strange double standard...

Please don't fall in the same trap of French tone of speaking with partners.

And about Italy dropping out lets check past track?
If we go and check multinational programs, if you have a nation that sticks to its words its Italy
Correct me if I'm wrong but we should have one of the best track records on cooperation, even more considering our budget.
Horizon CNFR,
FREMM
Typhoon
F-35
Etc.. etc....

Yes we had cuts (F-35) to do but that depends on extreme budgets reasons and not industrial gaining like the Germans do for example, and we payed the price on lost setbacks.

Nah we will ask 33% until the cash will be to be shown and then the % will get reduced to the amount we are going to provide.

Interesting points. What do you think the % distributions will end up as when production gets going?

Evening, I'm not really following your school of thought there.

I am certainly not knocking the excellent effort and products made by the Italian defence industry.

It's simply, Japan and the UK require a large Gen 6 platform, Italian requirements are more than catered for with F35.

Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope Italy stays the course, I really do.

I just get the feeling this is more about leveraging a good deal on another tranche of F35.

The reality is, all three countries will be using F35 as it's main platform if Tempest falls through.

Edit: Let's not forget that in comparison to the other projects Italy has been successfully involved with, Tempest will be an 'order of magnitude' more expensive, especially as Italy is insisting on a full 33% share apparently...

[Ron5]

If I ran the Italian Air force, I would be questioning Tempest involvement, as it will divert needed funding on a duplication of capability.....

What we do ignore AMX, M346 and all programs we have to develop a national industry?
So It would be a duplication for Italy but not for Japan? Kinda strange double standard...

Please don't fall in the same trap of French tone of speaking with partners.

And about Italy dropping out lets check past track?
If we go and check multinational programs, if you have a nation that sticks to its words its Italy
Correct me if I'm wrong but we should have one of the best track records on cooperation, even more considering our budget.
Horizon CNFR,
FREMM
Typhoon
F-35
Etc.. etc....

Yes we had cuts (F-35) to do but that depends on extreme budgets reasons and not industrial gaining like the Germans do for example, and we payed the price on lost setbacks.

Nah we will ask 33% until the cash will be to be shown and then the % will get reduced to the amount we are going to provide.

Interesting points. What do you think the % distributions will end up as when production gets going?

Evening, I'm not really following your school of thought there.

I am certainly not knocking the excellent effort and products made by the Italian defence industry.

It's simply, Japan and the UK require a large Gen 6 platform, Italian requirements are more than catered for with F35.

Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope Italy stays the course, I really do.

I just get the feeling this is more about leveraging a good deal on another tranche of F35.

The reality is, all three countries will be using F35 as it's main platform if Tempest falls through.

Edit: Let's not forget that in comparison to the other projects Italy has been successfully involved with, Tempest will be an 'order of magnitude' more expensive, especially as Italy is insisting on a full 33% share apparently...

By your dumb arguments, Germany, France and Spain doesn't have a need for a gen 6 aircraft either. Yet there they go, developing one.

Italy is looking for a Eurofighter replacement, just like the UK. And Italy is part of NATO, just like the UK.

Just go away, your schoolgirl "analysis" is tedious.

[wargame_insomniac]

By your dumb arguments, Germany, France and Spain doesn't have a need for a gen 6 aircraft either. Yet there they go, developing one.

Italy is looking for a Eurofighter replacement, just like the UK. And Italy is part of NATO, just like the UK.

Just go away, your schoolgirl "analysis" is tedious.

You must have been a big loss to the diplomatic corps with your ability to win friends and influence people....

[Meriv9]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

[tomuk]

Isn't the complication that a substantial element of the Tempest's systems would be supplied by the Italian owned Leonardo UK. Doing all that work in Edinburgh isn't exactly Italian workshare. On the other hand letting all the profit from said system flow to Italy with no risk is also an issue.

[mrclark303]

If I ran the Italian Air force, I would be questioning Tempest involvement, as it will divert needed funding on a duplication of capability.....

What we do ignore AMX, M346 and all programs we have to develop a national industry?
So It would be a duplication for Italy but not for Japan? Kinda strange double standard...

Please don't fall in the same trap of French tone of speaking with partners.

And about Italy dropping out lets check past track?
If we go and check multinational programs, if you have a nation that sticks to its words its Italy
Correct me if I'm wrong but we should have one of the best track records on cooperation, even more considering our budget.
Horizon CNFR,
FREMM
Typhoon
F-35
Etc.. etc....

Yes we had cuts (F-35) to do but that depends on extreme budgets reasons and not industrial gaining like the Germans do for example, and we payed the price on lost setbacks.

Nah we will ask 33% until the cash will be to be shown and then the % will get reduced to the amount we are going to provide.

Interesting points. What do you think the % distributions will end up as when production gets going?

Evening, I'm not really following your school of thought there.

I am certainly not knocking the excellent effort and products made by the Italian defence industry.

It's simply, Japan and the UK require a large Gen 6 platform, Italian requirements are more than catered for with F35.

Don't get me wrong, I certainly hope Italy stays the course, I really do.

I just get the feeling this is more about leveraging a good deal on another tranche of F35.

The reality is, all three countries will be using F35 as it's main platform if Tempest falls through.

Edit: Let's not forget that in comparison to the other projects Italy has been successfully involved with, Tempest will be an 'order of magnitude' more expensive, especially as Italy is insisting on a full 33% share apparently...

By your dumb arguments, Germany, France and Spain doesn't have a need for a gen 6 aircraft either. Yet there they go, developing one.

Italy is looking for a Eurofighter replacement, just like the UK. And Italy is part of NATO, just like the UK.

Just go away, your schoolgirl "analysis" is tedious.

I would suggest if you lack the manners to have a polite conversation and debate, you reframe from answering Ron.

Have a lovely evening.

[SD67]

But what he writes is true.

Germany FCAS expected weight was 38T in a french article a month ago.

That alone disproves mrclark303's theory.

And about Italian needs, why we went down the Typhoon route and not just kept/bought the F-16? Which 1980s-1990s menace in the Med was too much for the F-16s?

Or the situation back then F-16/EF2000 is different than the F-35/Tempest?

Agree
Italys coastline is around 8000 Kim’s and the med end to end is very big.
Plus there’s the Balkans. Lots of history and many opportunities for trouble making. Italy to Belgrade is right at the limit of F35 range.
IMHO A long range 6th gen fighter based in Italy able to comfortably dominate from Cairo to Libya to Bucharest would enable Western Europe to sleep a little more soundly

[Ron5]

I would suggest if you lack the manners to have a polite conversation and debate, you reframe from answering Ron.

Your argument is that Tempest (GCAP) is too good for the Italians. I don't find that particularly polite or respectful so I'm calling you on your bullshit.

[downsizer]

So, so many trolls and ill informed posters have ruined this once good forum.

[wargame_insomniac]

I would suggest if you lack the manners to have a polite conversation and debate, you reframe from answering Ron.

Your argument is that Tempest (GCAP) is too good for the Italians. I don't find that particularly polite or respectful so I'm calling you on your bullshit.

Well I won't lower myself to your level Ron, rather sad..

I have in no way stated Tempest is " too good for the Italians"!

I have pointed out that in my opinion (other opinions are allowed Ron) the Italians have stated unofficially they expect 33% of Tempest, this will be an order of magnitude more expensive than their F35 procurement.

That's 'many' billions of Euros for an aircraft they don't really need, with a capable F35 fleet already procured, Tempest is rather overkill for their operational requirements.

You don't agree Ron, that's fine too, lower the blood pressure and have a lovely Christmas.....

[Ron5]

I have in no way stated Tempest is " too good for the Italians"!

Tempest is rather overkill for their operational requirements

[Ares]

It's interesting to note that it's now the Japanese who seem to be dictating the drum beat. They are very keen enter the detail design and engineering phase in 2024, possibly a year or two prior to the UK's ideal time line.

It's important to have something concrete to offer the market before the European effort gets underway, I think everyone is courting the Saudis inparticular at the moment and giving them a closed briefing on Tempest, once it's clearly defined in 'cyberspace' will be crucial to landing a 50 aircraft plus order.

That's a good thing, stops people dragging their feet and puts a fire under the programme.
Members had better be ready with the cheque books out!

[Spitfire9]

While I am aware that UK /Italy and Japan have chosen to merge their 6G efforts, I am unaware whether that implies a single airframe or two different airframes with many common sub-systems (shared avionics, sensor, defensive, offensive systems etc). Is anyone wiser than me? As for engines, are we talking about an IHI engine with RR optimisation, the opposite or two different engines?

[TheLoneRanger]

It's interesting to note that it's now the Japanese who seem to be dictating the drum beat. They are very keen enter the detail design and engineering phase in 2024, possibly a year or two prior to the UK's ideal time line.

Where - how do you come to this conclusion? The pace is more dictated by the UK goverment who wants to establish clear facts on the ground for this programme.

[wargame_insomniac]

Merry Christmas Lone Ranger, just reading the various news reports.

The Japanese are very keen to drive forward....

The highly likely next Labour administration in the UK, just at a pivotal point for Tempest, must cast some doubts in Tokyo...

For that reason alone, considerable pressure will be exerted to get Tempest under contract before the next general election.

[TheLoneRanger]

Merry Christmas Lone Ranger, just reading the various news reports.

The Japanese are very keen to drive forward....

The highly likely next Labour administration in the UK, just at a pivotal point for Tempest, must cast some doubts in Tokyo...

For that reason alone, considerable pressure will be exerted to get Tempest under contract before the next general election.

Merry xmas indeed(still a few hours left!!!) - lets see - i think even a labour goverment will have problems trying to put a break on Tempest.

[mrclark303]

Merry Christmas Lone Ranger, just reading the various news reports.

The Japanese are very keen to drive forward....

The highly likely next Labour administration in the UK, just at a pivotal point for Tempest, must cast some doubts in Tokyo...

For that reason alone, considerable pressure will be exerted to get Tempest under contract before the next general election.

Merry xmas indeed(still a few hours left!!!) - lets see - i think even a labour goverment will have problems trying to put a break on Tempest.

I hope so, I can certainly see a killer deal on a UK assembled 'F35K' variant, with increased UK content being pitched to the next cash strapped government by Uncle Sam.

LM pitch.....

A 'Bae systems led' UK advanced F35 variant, assembled in the UK, keeping vital military aviation technology manufacturing and design in the UK 'safe for a generation', perhaps also stating that it keeps the USA's most important and closest partner in lockstep with US military systems through interoperability etc etc etc......

Possibly with another LM push to buy Bae Systems quietly alongside it with 'cough, cough, cough, assurances..... Certainly loosing Tempest will lower the companies market price and perhaps leave it vulnerable to a hostile take over attempt.

A win win ( certainly for Uncle Sam anyway) and 'far' cheaper than Tempest.....

That's what I fully expect to happen, I would place a wager on it.....

If the next government can get assurances about jobs and some longer term assurances about the viability of BAE Systems Air Structures, along with a substantial cost saving, it would be extremely tempting indeed...

Best get Tempest under contract asap would be my advice to the consortium.....

[wargame_insomniac]

Merry Christmas Lone Ranger, just reading the various news reports.

The Japanese are very keen to drive forward....

The highly likely next Labour administration in the UK, just at a pivotal point for Tempest, must cast some doubts in Tokyo...

For that reason alone, considerable pressure will be exerted to get Tempest under contract before the next general election.

Merry xmas indeed(still a few hours left!!!) - lets see - i think even a labour goverment will have problems trying to put a break on Tempest.

I hope so, I can certainly see a killer deal on a UK assembled 'F35K' variant, with increased UK content being pitched to the next cash strapped government by Uncle Sam.

LM pitch.....

A 'Bae systems led' UK advanced F35 variant, assembled in the UK, keeping vital military aviation technology manufacturing and design in the UK 'safe for a generation', perhaps also stating that it keeps the USA's most important and closest partner in lockstep with US military systems through interoperability etc etc etc......

Possibly with another LM push to buy Bae Systems quietly alongside it with 'cough, cough, cough, assurances..... Certainly loosing Tempest will lower the companies market price and perhaps leave it vulnerable to a hostile take over attempt.

A win win ( certainly for Uncle Sam anyway) and 'far' cheaper than Tempest.....

That's what I fully expect to happen, I would place a wager on it.....

If the next government can get assurances about jobs and some longer term assurances about the viability of BAE Systems Air Structures, along with a substantial cost saving, it would be extremely tempting indeed...

Best get Tempest under contract asap would be my advice to the consortium.....

Unfortunately I can see that as a highly plausible scenario, especially if a (probable) future Labour government needs to cut costs in some departments to pay for others.

[Digger22]

We should remember previous stitch ups, and press on.
If we don't, no one will ever view us as a viable partner again. Then we'll be stuck with Uncle Sam, and on their terms.

No thanks.

[SD67]

Merry Christmas Lone Ranger, just reading the various news reports.

The Japanese are very keen to drive forward....

The highly likely next Labour administration in the UK, just at a pivotal point for Tempest, must cast some doubts in Tokyo...

For that reason alone, considerable pressure will be exerted to get Tempest under contract before the next general election.

Merry xmas indeed(still a few hours left!!!) - lets see - i think even a labour goverment will have problems trying to put a break on Tempest.

I hope so, I can certainly see a killer deal on a UK assembled 'F35K' variant, with increased UK content being pitched to the next cash strapped government by Uncle Sam.

LM pitch.....

A 'Bae systems led' UK advanced F35 variant, assembled in the UK, keeping vital military aviation technology manufacturing and design in the UK 'safe for a generation', perhaps also stating that it keeps the USA's most important and closest partner in lockstep with US military systems through interoperability etc etc etc......

Possibly with another LM push to buy Bae Systems quietly alongside it with 'cough, cough, cough, assurances..... Certainly loosing Tempest will lower the companies market price and perhaps leave it vulnerable to a hostile take over attempt.

A win win ( certainly for Uncle Sam anyway) and 'far' cheaper than Tempest.....

That's what I fully expect to happen, I would place a wager on it.....

If the next government can get assurances about jobs and some longer term assurances about the viability of BAE Systems Air Structures, along with a substantial cost saving, it would be extremely tempting indeed...

Best get Tempest under contract asap would be my advice to the consortium.....

That would have to be some sales pitch, even for an American.

"It took us 20 years to integrate Brimstone but now we promise we'll stand up a whole UK production line in 10. Scouts honour"

They'd also need BAE to play along, probably Rolls as well, and to open up the black boxes for integration of UK specific electronics. Though given the gullibility of our political class you can never rule it out

[mrclark303]

Merry Christmas Lone Ranger, just reading the various news reports.

The Japanese are very keen to drive forward....

The highly likely next Labour administration in the UK, just at a pivotal point for Tempest, must cast some doubts in Tokyo...

For that reason alone, considerable pressure will be exerted to get Tempest under contract before the next general election.

Merry xmas indeed(still a few hours left!!!) - lets see - i think even a labour goverment will have problems trying to put a break on Tempest.

I hope so, I can certainly see a killer deal on a UK assembled 'F35K' variant, with increased UK content being pitched to the next cash strapped government by Uncle Sam.

LM pitch.....

A 'Bae systems led' UK advanced F35 variant, assembled in the UK, keeping vital military aviation technology manufacturing and design in the UK 'safe for a generation', perhaps also stating that it keeps the USA's most important and closest partner in lockstep with US military systems through interoperability etc etc etc......

Possibly with another LM push to buy Bae Systems quietly alongside it with 'cough, cough, cough, assurances..... Certainly loosing Tempest will lower the companies market price and perhaps leave it vulnerable to a hostile take over attempt.

A win win ( certainly for Uncle Sam anyway) and 'far' cheaper than Tempest.....

That's what I fully expect to happen, I would place a wager on it.....

If the next government can get assurances about jobs and some longer term assurances about the viability of BAE Systems Air Structures, along with a substantial cost saving, it would be extremely tempting indeed...

Best get Tempest under contract asap would be my advice to the consortium.....

Unfortunately I can see that as a highly plausible scenario, especially if a (probable) future Labour government needs to cut costs in some departments to pay for others.

I would add that as well as UK assembly of a theoretical F35K, I would expect LM to offer 33% UK content too in an all out attempt to kill Tempest...

Moving further into the realms of fantasy, it would be interesting to speculate what a theoretical F35K variant would look like ..

So, an increased gross weight 'A' airframe, with provision for hose AA refueling, conformal fuel tanks perhaps.....

I would suppose a 30% UK content, RR assembly of the increased thrust engine perhaps??

UK avionic elements and UK weapons.

[SD67]

Though personally I do think LM have bigger fish to fry it sounds like a lot of risk and effort for a smallish prize
The only way Tempest gets cancelled is if it doesn’t work. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Wallace and Radakin take private soundings from the Opposition prior to the big commit.