2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Discuss current, historical or potential future conflicts around the world.
User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

3 months of fighting, 15 000 fresh Turkish troops thrown into the melee, 1 mln people uprooted
... and a truce aiming for the establishment of a seven-mile-wide security corridor along the M4 road.

SkyNews reports that it will be jointly patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops and will begin on 15 March.
- we know of joint patrols from not too far back in time
- just that one party in them has changed
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

First the sanctions and in swift order withdrawing the temporary waivers (for buying oil from Iran while organising alternative suply). Then Covid19. Then whatever oil you can sell, you get 'nothing' for it.

No wonder that the hardliners are determined to stoke external conflict, knowing that Trump will hold back from entering a long and costly war - in an election year.
- last week, missiles were fired at a U.S. oil project in Iraq.
- this week, a group of unidentified armed men, believed to be Iranian commandos, seized a Hong Kong-flagged tanker and escorted it into Iranian waters. This is a strange one as one would expect China not to be too pleased, regardless of who are the beneficial owners.
- yesterday Iran sent the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval vessels to make harassing approaches to six US Navy and Coast Guard ships, passing within 10 yards of a Coast Guard cutter. "Iran" may mean many things; the IRGC chain of command bypasses president Rouhani.
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Just about every state with large population in the ME can be classed (by their state of finances) as “failed states” with weak or nearly bankrupt economies, even before the virus began to have an impact. These included Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen... all battlegrounds in the mayhem that Iran is stirring.

The not-so-populous states tend to be the ones with oil riches and spending close to 10% of the GDP on defence.

The intervention by the virus seems to have the 100-yr war effect in Syria (the sides taking a "breather"), but not so in the Gulf. The actors (manpower) involved tends to be on the minimal scale, though. How many men in a speed boat; how many does it take to launch a rocket (a few more to manoeuvre it into position, in the first place)?
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The incubation time here seems to have been a week:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poli ... an-vessels
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

The BBC picked up more trigger-happiness in the Iranian forces:

"According to the unofficial reports, Jamaran - operated by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) - fired the missile prematurely before Konarak had time to sail away from a floating target it had towed to a designated position.

In January, the IRGC mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane near Tehran, killing all 176 people on board, at a time of heightened tension with the US. "
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

J. Tattersall
Has liked: 0
Been liked: 0

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by J. Tattersall »

This really does illustrate the need for the greatest of caution in the Gulf. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-5261251

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

Resurgent nationalism and incompetent leaders are combining to give us a 'new' 1956 Hungary/ Suez moment:

Will or will not Mr. trump let the Iranian tankers ('biggies') get through the embargo on Venezuela (which, ironically is sitting on oil, but making use of it has by now been mismanaged for so long that 'some' has to be sent from the outside).
- any interference with those tankers will make the Hormuz even more tense than it has been for a good while by now

A suppressed uprising and the flow of oil (in this case just for one country, rather than half of the world)
- ohh-boy, the same old story playing again

Now, keep your eyes peeled on which news outlet makes the connection...
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

User avatar
ArmChairCivvy
Senior Member
Posts: 16310
Joined: 05 May 2015, 21:34
Has liked: 77 times
Been liked: 73 times
United Kingdom

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by ArmChairCivvy »

This, thru Reuters "Iran seizes South Korean tanker" does not seem to be a Soleimani anniversary event,
but rather a lever for trying to get the hands on $ 7bn frozen in S. Korea under US sanctions on Iran.

This piece is almost a year old, but perhaps Iran has miscalculated what "loss of face" means in NE Asia :?:
Ever-lasting truths: Multi-year budgets/ planning by necessity have to address the painful questions; more often than not the Either-Or prevails over Both-And.
If everyone is thinking the same, then someone is not thinking (attributed to Patton)

Phil Sayers
Member
Posts: 216
Joined: 03 May 2015, 13:56
Has liked: 35 times
Been liked: 67 times

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by Phil Sayers »

In the latest round of the Tanker wars 2.0 Iran has just murdered a UK citizen along with a Romanian. RIP.

Phil Sayers
Member
Posts: 216
Joined: 03 May 2015, 13:56
Has liked: 35 times
Been liked: 67 times

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by Phil Sayers »

We are already coming under public pressure from the other party in the Tanker War to respond (as we should):


Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
@manniefabian

Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid spoke with his British counterpart Dominic Raab, and noted "the need to respond harshly" to the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker, his office says.

Phil Sayers
Member
Posts: 216
Joined: 03 May 2015, 13:56
Has liked: 35 times
Been liked: 67 times

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by Phil Sayers »

The UK government is now officially holding Iran responsible:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-c ... er-by-iran

Phil Sayers
Member
Posts: 216
Joined: 03 May 2015, 13:56
Has liked: 35 times
Been liked: 67 times

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by Phil Sayers »

Iran is determined to goad the international community - hijacking underway in the Gulf of Oman:

Deborah Haynes
@haynesdeborah
·
20m
BREAKING: A UK maritime organisation @UK_MTO is reporting a “potential hijack” of a ship off coast of the United Arab Emirates as a security source said a tanker appears to have been seized. Armed individuals are believed to have boarded vessel, he said.

18m
The vessel that appears to have been seized is the Asphalt Princess. “It was an unauthorised boarding in the Gulf of Oman,” the security source said. A group of 8 or 9 armed individuals are believed to have boarded the tanker

Phil Sayers
Member
Posts: 216
Joined: 03 May 2015, 13:56
Has liked: 35 times
Been liked: 67 times

Re: 2020 Baghdad Int. Airport Airstrike / Current Situation in Iran

Post by Phil Sayers »

No Syria thread on here so I'll use the closest rather than starting a new one. Syria's misery is unending and it would blatantly have been far preferable to remove the Assad regime (the definition of evil on Earth; make the Russians look like Mother Teresa) from power a decade ago (granted that would have resulted in a different set of serious problems) but that didn't happen so rather than cure the disease we just try, and generally fail barring defeating ISIS, to address the symptoms.

Even the noteworthy success of defeating ISIS is significantly tarnished by the problems it has caused with Turkey and on which I have sympathy for their point of view given that enlisting the YPG with their decidedly fluid approach to whether or not they are also the PKK was like informing Israel that we would be enlisting Hezbollah to defeat ISIS. However, despite understanding how they see it, there is no excuse for the current unrelenting wave of airstrikes / artillery strikes on YPG positions which cause numerous civilian casualties and were 300 metres from sparking just about the most serious diplomatic crisis imaginable:



Turkey (with the Syrian rebels they back and are essentially just using) is likely to go further and launch another ground invasion of NE Syria. That really could see either the Russians engage the Turkish Airforce or else the madness of US troops (probably SAS / SBS with them) opening fire on Turkish troops in self-defence. A complete and utter mess which will just continue to spark situations like this for a long time to come.

Post Reply