The war in Ukraine

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dmereifield
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 09:06
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 07:35
sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
Oh, the irony is too great.
OK, so give me some solid examples if where Germanynhas taken a lead on something substantive? I've given you plenty of examples where they've been the laggards...all of which are factually correct

dmereifield
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 09:06
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 07:35
sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
Oh, the irony is too great.
OK, so give me some solid examples if where Germanynhas taken a lead on something substantive? I've given you plenty of examples where they've been the laggards...all of which are factually correct

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 16:55
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 09:06
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 07:35
sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
Oh, the irony is too great.
OK, so give me some solid examples if where Germanynhas taken a lead on something substantive? I've given you plenty of examples where they've been the laggards...all of which are factually correct
I never claimed at one point they were leading, I've made the argument that people are mostly focusing on bad PR and decision pre-war when judging performance now. They're following the US decisions during the war. Just like the UK is.

Better yet you tell me a weapon system that the UK led the USA on and I'll shut up for good.

All of those laggard "examples" are actually just following the US decisions.

For example people latched onto the narrative that Germans were laggards on Leo 1/Marder as industry offered that day one, when we know Western MBT and IFV's are off limits.

Examples of good leadership from Germany? They're giving tanks to Greece and Czechs to replace T-72's. No Poland is an idiot for asking for tanks that don't exist. They're also asking for the new version, even though Germany offered to first send the old version and eventually upgrade to the new standard. Hilarious how this is another example of being a laggard.

IRST is the only medium range system we got. I don't think the US has anything to offer modern outside of NASAMS and Patriot(which isn't going obviously) Sure you can talk about delivery being late, but hey. That's the first western AA system I see.

UK has sent the same weapons as Germany, following the US decision this war. You can try and pretend it's not true, but Germany and UK announced MLRS 10 hours after Biden's NYTimes Op-Ed.

I haven't been substantive? Someone claimed the Dutch sent PZH2000 before M777 as a reason to blast Germany for not leading on heavy weapons when Dutch sent it a week after us.

The US has absolute control on heavy weapons being sent to the Ukraine. If this wasn't true. I'd like to blast you guys for not leading on MLRS while Biden was dragging this out.

dmereifield
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:34
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 16:55
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 09:06
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 07:35
sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
Oh, the irony is too great.
OK, so give me some solid examples if where Germanynhas taken a lead on something substantive? I've given you plenty of examples where they've been the laggards...all of which are factually correct
I never claimed at one point they were leading, I've made the argument that people are mostly focusing on bad PR and decision pre-war when judging performance now. They're following the US decisions during the war. Just like the UK is.

Better yet you tell me a weapon system that the UK led the USA on and I'll shut up for good.

All of those laggard "examples" are actually just following the US decisions.

For example people latched onto the narrative that Germans were laggards on Leo 1/Marder as industry offered that day one, when we know Western MBT and IFV's are off limits.

Examples of good leadership from Germany? They're giving tanks to Greece and Czechs to replace T-72's. No Poland is an idiot for asking for tanks that don't exist. They're also asking for the new version, even though Germany offered to first send the old version and eventually upgrade to the new standard. Hilarious how this is another example of being a laggard.

IRST is the only medium range system we got. I don't think the US has anything to offer modern outside of NASAMS and Patriot(which isn't going obviously) Sure you can talk about delivery being late, but hey. That's the first western AA system I see.

UK has sent the same weapons as Germany, following the US decision this war. You can try and pretend it's not true, but Germany and UK announced MLRS 10 hours after Biden's NYTimes Op-Ed.

I haven't been substantive? Someone claimed the Dutch sent PZH2000 before M777 as a reason to blast Germany for not leading on heavy weapons when Dutch sent it a week after us.

The US has absolute control on heavy weapons being sent to the Ukraine. If this wasn't true. I'd like to blast you guys for not leading on MLRS while Biden was dragging this out.
Ukrainian have been pretty clear, in international press - not just UK press, that Germny hasn't been particularly supportive. Singling them out at times for lack of support. On the otherhand, they've been bery vocal about how supportive the UK has been. Indeed, the Ukrainian government is on record as saying that if all coubtires were as supportive as the UK then Russia would have been defeated already. Perhaps you know better than the Ukranian Government? Or perhaps its just that German PR has been poor in Kyiv too
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Phil Sayers
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Phil Sayers »

sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:34

Better yet you tell me a weapon system that the UK led the USA on and I'll shut up for good.
The decision to send 2,000+ NLAW in the weeks before the invasion sort of counts. Not the type but the quantity. Yes the US was already sending more sophisticated Javelins but so far as I know (may well be wrong) these were numbering in the low hundreds. To start delivering by the thousands really helped other countries (including Luxembourg!) overcome their own fears about escalation and / or Russian retaliation.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Phil Sayers wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 18:08
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:34

Better yet you tell me a weapon system that the UK led the USA on and I'll shut up for good.
The decision to send 2,000+ NLAW in the weeks before the invasion sort of counts. Not the type but the quantity. Yes the US was already sending more sophisticated Javelins but so far as I know (may well be wrong) these were numbering in the low hundreds. To start delivering by the thousands really helped other countries (including Luxembourg!) overcome their own fears about escalation and / or Russian retaliation.
Yes, without the NLAW decision the Ukrainians might have lost Kyiv. God bless Boris and Wallace for that decision.

I think Ukraine had something like Javelin 600 missiles.

Anyways, with regards to after the war starting, I believe I am correct.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by SW1 »

It isn’t a competition, each country must be judged by there own actions towards Russian and Ukrainian both long before this happened and since. All I can say you can’t be more proud how the U.K. and those we have sent have stepped up in support not only of Ukraine but of the Eastern European states we have stood by.

It’s a stain on the political elite across all the west that Ukraine has had to endure this at all.

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:56
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 17:34
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 16:55
sunstersun wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 09:06
dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 07:35
sunstersun wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 21:46
dmereifield wrote: 02 Jun 2022, 20:45 Sholtz has been dealt a very poor hand. Nothing he can do about Merkel and Von Der Leyen's many failures. He has, however, made some partial corrections for those failings - substantive elevations of defence spending and announcements to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, for example.

Even where he deserves some credit, he isnt leasing on leading from the front, he's had to be dragged, cajoled and pressured into pretty much everything.

It's not poor PR, it's poor form.
Right, so tell me these decisions that he's made that have had to be dragged, cajoled, and pressured?

Outside of heavy weapons decision, which we know USA sets the policy and everyone else follows? Or did Boris send MLRS before USA?

Scholz has been clear. I'll send Leo's/Marders the second USA/UK sent theirs. The worse I can accuse Scholz is having no initiative. As I've said, Germany is getting ringed through the mud based on pre-war politics and choices, while after the war their decision making has been fine. PR has been a disaster.
Um, is your head in the sand or are your ears blocked? Not much point continuing the conversation if you can't honestly accept the facts
Oh, the irony is too great.
OK, so give me some solid examples if where Germanynhas taken a lead on something substantive? I've given you plenty of examples where they've been the laggards...all of which are factually correct
I never claimed at one point they were leading, I've made the argument that people are mostly focusing on bad PR and decision pre-war when judging performance now. They're following the US decisions during the war. Just like the UK is.

Better yet you tell me a weapon system that the UK led the USA on and I'll shut up for good.

All of those laggard "examples" are actually just following the US decisions.

For example people latched onto the narrative that Germans were laggards on Leo 1/Marder as industry offered that day one, when we know Western MBT and IFV's are off limits.

Examples of good leadership from Germany? They're giving tanks to Greece and Czechs to replace T-72's. No Poland is an idiot for asking for tanks that don't exist. They're also asking for the new version, even though Germany offered to first send the old version and eventually upgrade to the new standard. Hilarious how this is another example of being a laggard.

IRST is the only medium range system we got. I don't think the US has anything to offer modern outside of NASAMS and Patriot(which isn't going obviously) Sure you can talk about delivery being late, but hey. That's the first western AA system I see.

UK has sent the same weapons as Germany, following the US decision this war. You can try and pretend it's not true, but Germany and UK announced MLRS 10 hours after Biden's NYTimes Op-Ed.

I haven't been substantive? Someone claimed the Dutch sent PZH2000 before M777 as a reason to blast Germany for not leading on heavy weapons when Dutch sent it a week after us.

The US has absolute control on heavy weapons being sent to the Ukraine. If this wasn't true. I'd like to blast you guys for not leading on MLRS while Biden was dragging this out.
Ukrainian have been pretty clear, in international press - not just UK press, that Germny hasn't been particularly supportive. Singling them out at times for lack of support. On the otherhand, they've been bery vocal about how supportive the UK has been. Indeed, the Ukrainian government is on record as saying that if all coubtires were as supportive as the UK then Russia would have been defeated already. Perhaps you know better than the Ukranian Government? Or perhaps its just that German PR has been poor in Kyiv too
So my argument is the mainstream coverage is wrong against Germany and you're citing the mainstream media?

Yes of course people are supportive of the UK. The UK made the decisive contribution before the war started, and generates infinite good PR from it(The Javelins lacked batteries in the first week(oops), while the NLAW carried). While Germany had the pre-war skeletons and unfortunate Marder/Leo situation(which I think you can agree now after I've argued it this entire thread isn't actually dragging your feet when no one has sent western tanks or IFV's)

I've made two assertions here.

1) Majority of the German problems in helping Ukraine are prewar failings. e.g 700 Strelas that are cracked. Gas meaning way more economic pressure.

2) The actual decisions post war starting have been within reason, and if you factor in the circumstances aren't that different from UK.

Besides the Ukrainians have changed their tune about the Germans.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/berl ... vs-scholz/

"Finally we can say from the bottom of our hearts to Chancellor Scholz, ‘Thank you!’,” said Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin Andrij Melnyk, reacting in a number of interviews with German media to Scholz’s announcement this week that Germany will step up weapon deliveries by sending modern air defense missiles and radar systems. “Now you can really talk about a Zeitenwende for Ukraine," Melnyk said, to the likely disappointment of his fans in media and opposition parties who, at least for the day, lost their key witness for convicting the government of a lack of morality

Now of course, I think he has always overstated the German lack of help and understated the bareness of the Bundeshwer in terms of supplies or maintenance. Let's be real here. Would anyone be surprised if the German PZH2000 are in much worse shape than the Dutch one's despite being the OG manufacturer lol.

Anyways, we're on the same side is correct. We all want Ukraine to win and for Putin and Xi to fck off. I just believe the German's have taken disproportionate PR blame.

dmereifield
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

"All I can say you can’t be more proud how the U.K. and those we have sent have stepped up in support not only of Ukraine but of the Eastern European states we have stood by.

It’s a stain on the political elite across all the west that Ukraine has had to endure this at all"

Can't disagree with that. Eastern European states have been immense.

French "intelligence" providing contrary conclusions (re an imminent threat of invasion) to that of the US and UK intelligence agencies certainly didn't help. If only those countries now providing support had done so post Crimea, or at least in the months preceeding the invasion, as the US and UK did, many Ukrainian lives would have been spared
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

dmereifield wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 19:04 "All I can say you can’t be more proud how the U.K. and those we have sent have stepped up in support not only of Ukraine but of the Eastern European states we have stood by.

It’s a stain on the political elite across all the west that Ukraine has had to endure this at all"

Can't disagree with that. Eastern European states have been immense.

French "intelligence" providing contrary conclusions (re an imminent threat of invasion) to that of the US and UK intelligence agencies certainly didn't help. If only those countries now providing support had done so post Crimea, or at least in the months preceeding the invasion, as the US and UK did, many Ukrainian lives would have been spared

MI6 and CIA the only guard Kings forever. The French and Germans simply do not have a "spying" culture.

https://www.politico.eu/article/france- ... n-ukraine/

:thumbup:

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Enigmatically »

UK couldn't send MLRS before US agreed it (ITAR regs)

But they did send NLAWs early, and Starstreak (much faster than Stingers). They were the first to send anti-ship missiles (still unspecified type). They also sent Brimstone and have reportedly had special forces in country training Ukranian army.
So the UK has led on quite a few things. So have Danes with Harpoon, Poles, Lithuanians and Turks can also point to stuff (and that does not mean others have not also).
But Germany has not just been bad PR. Though they made that for themselves too. They seem to have tried to find excuses for delays, whereas others have found ways to deliver what they can
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Enigmatically »

UK couldn't send MLRS before US agreed it (ITAR regs)

But they did send NLAWs early, and Starstreak (much faster than Stingers). They were the first to send anti-ship missiles (still unspecified type). They also sent Brimstone and have reportedly had special forces in country training Ukranian army.

Which is why zelensky praised UK, and Putin made us enemy #1. An honour not accorded Germany

So the UK has led on quite a few things. So have Danes with Harpoon, Poles, Lithuanians and Turks can also point to stuff (and that does not mean others have not also).
But Germany has not just been bad PR. Though they made that for themselves too. They seem to have tried to find excuses for delays, whereas others have found ways to deliver what they can

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Enigmatically »

Apologies for repost. Not sure what happened. Won't let me delete

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

Enigmatically wrote: 03 Jun 2022, 21:54 UK couldn't send MLRS before US agreed it (ITAR regs)

But they did send NLAWs early, and Starstreak (much faster than Stingers). They were the first to send anti-ship missiles (still unspecified type). They also sent Brimstone and have reportedly had special forces in country training Ukranian army.

Which is why zelensky praised UK, and Putin made us enemy #1. An honour not accorded Germany

So the UK has led on quite a few things. So have Danes with Harpoon, Poles, Lithuanians and Turks can also point to stuff (and that does not mean others have not also).
But Germany has not just been bad PR. Though they made that for themselves too. They seem to have tried to find excuses for delays, whereas others have found ways to deliver what they can
Aren't the brimstones the unnamed anti ship missiles?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/br ... 022-04-19/

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

On a brighter note, sort of, by looking at various sites whish have use sources such as social media as well as national reports it can be determined that Russia as so far lost between 700 and 750 Main Battle Tanks, the majority being T-72B3s and T-72B models. One the who these are a large percentage of their top line platforms but Russia still has hundreds more available and that does not count their reserve holdings.

Reports of the deployment of T-62s covers the versions that were upgraded in the 1980s before it was realised that it was impossible to upgrade the tank to a level where it could face the latest western MBTs. However as a platform to protect Russia's rear areas it is more then adequate.

sunstersun
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »

All warfare is based on deception is something the Ukrainians are apparently masters at.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6 ... sian-style

Did they really pull a rope a dope on everyone in Severodonetsk?

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by sunstersun »



Cool Leo 2's for Ukraine from Spain.

So the last 2 weeks we got HIMARS, MLRS, armed drones, Western AA systems, MBT.

Now all that's left is to train Ukraine on Western jets.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Caribbean »

Further down that thread, it's suggested that the tanks need considerable work to restore to active status, but that Spain is struggling to find the industrial capacity to do that. If true, it might be a while before they actually arrive.

Still a good sign however
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

Time is the key factor for all these promises of heavy kit. This is needed now but with western kit, Ukrainian troops are going to have to be trained, and even at an accelerated train rate it will be a while until they reach the front line. But for NATO's dithering and being cowed by threat from Russia about the expansion of the conflict, these weapon could already have been in service and making a difference. WE must also not apply pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire on anything but terms they are willing to accept. To do so would just be another form of appeasement, and the sanctions on Russia must remain until it withdraws from all territory that is recognised as Ukrainian sovereign territory.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by MammaLiTurchi »

Forcing Ukraine to yield to some demands of Russians directly means leaving "Western" values at bay whenever very countries "defending" the same values got into trouble due to the responsibilities arising from their daring words.

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Jdam »

I wonder if these Leo 2 will be a lot like the Mig 29's that will never show up :(

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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Lord Jim »

Could happen. The nations offering support to Ukraine need to really get their act together and also call Putin's bluff. He hasn't got the forces to attack NATO at whilst engaged in Ukraine. NATO is wise to his Hybrid warfare schemes and are capable of enacting their own varieties these days. Nuclear weapons are off the table, his Generals would not issue the orders to fire, as at least they have more sense then Putin and realise doing so ends Russia. I am not advocating NATO committing troops, but setting up proper training site in bordering countries and supply the kit needed in the quantities needed needs to be a priority. In the Cold War Communist and Capitalist countries both support their allies from across borders , just look at both Korea, Angola and Vietnam. Russia cannot be left with any gains from its hostile unilateral actions.
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by Jdam »

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-t ... to-ukraine

Interesting to see how the Russians like being on the receiving end of an MLRS system.

We have been very generous with equipment for Ukraine (Not a complaint) but the deafening silence on replacing all the equipment we have given is starting to worry me. :wtf:
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Re: The war in Ukraine

Post by dmereifield »

Reports of 4 weeks to deliver the helmets might have been generous....


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