The war in Ukraine

[Phil Sayers]

Fighter jet saga back on again.....

[wargame_insomniac]

Fighter jet saga back on again.....

I wish they would do this QUIETLY and then announce to the world after the jets have been transported to Ukraine. Tanks and AFV can simply be loaded onto a train near the border and ideally moved at night to reduce the risk of Russian attack.

I don't know how easy/long it would be to dissemble the jets for transport. Otherwise Ukranian pilots would have to cross the border and fly them (unarmed) back into Ukranian airspace. To minimise the risk of Russia escalating the war due to NATO "interference". Which feels like walking a tightrope. Hence my hope they could be mor subtle about what is a great suggestion for giving Ukraine equipment that they are already familiar with.

[Lord Jim]

Ok I got my names mixed up, I meant to say our Bulldogs, as the FV432s are called (now). I did think Trojan was the origianl name fo rthe FV432 but rarely used?

[inch]

Shame British never went on and purchased lots of foreshadow might have just been the thing for Ukrainians right now ..ah well

[inch]

Fireshadow even bloody predictive text

[Caribbean]

The rate at which we are using up munitions should be a warning to the West - I read elsewhere that it will take the USA around a year to replace the Javelin missiles used so far and five years to replace the MANPADS used so far. I suspect that it will take the UK even longer. At the current rate of usage, we will only be able to sustain a couple more months, after which supplies will slow to a trickle. Hopefully we are training the Ukrainians how to use NATO standard heavy artillery at the moment, and have already started production of ammunition.

I suppose the only consolation is that Russia must be suffering similar difficulties

[TheLoneRanger]

The rate at which we are using up munitions should be a warning to the West - I read elsewhere that it will take the USA around a year to replace the Javelin missiles used so far and five years to replace the MANPADS used so far. I suspect that it will take the UK even longer. At the current rate of usage, we will only be able to sustain a couple more months, after which supplies will slow to a trickle. Hopefully we are training the Ukrainians how to use NATO standard heavy artillery at the moment, and have already started production of ammunition.

I suppose the only consolation is that Russia must be suffering similar difficulties

It also highlights how unready the West/NATO is for war - and how the peace dividend has left the west so denuded - if there are supply issues now with a portion of Russian forces deployed against 1 country.

The worst offender has been Germany in many many many ways - and serious conversations need to be had with Germany on their preparedness for war.

An even worst offender than Germany has been the French !!!! They have virtually given noting to Ukraine of anything of substance/value yet esp when you compare with what the UK has provided and what the USA has provided.. Given the deep depth of a defence industry that France has maintained versus the UK - this is even more shocking.

[Phil Sayers]

More and more weaponry, of a heavier and heavier nature is being sent faster and faster but is now leading to questions about how long NATO can keep this up for (the corollary of course being that if this is what the war is doing to stocks across the whole of NATO what the hell must it be doing to Russia's stocks....one thing that is apparent is that once this is done we need to invest in holding much larger stockpiles of ammo because in full scale war we would run out in no time at all, probably a week tops:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-unit ... -out-tanks

[Lord Jim]

On a plus point, Germany has the licence to produce Stinger MANPADS for NATO members and as an alternative to Javelin, a number of members of the Spike family of ATGW are also manufactured in Europe for NATO members. The latter system is as good as Javelin if not better being a generation ahead.

As for heavy weapon systems, many eastern european member of NATO still have 122mm and 152mm Toed and Self propelled artillery systems from their days as part of the long defunct Warsaw Pact. Neither of these is a NATO standard but are used by Ukrainian forces, The same can be said regarding the very common 122mm MLRS operated by these same countries. The T-72 in various forms is still in ue by easter european members of NATO, and these could be sent in exchange for second hand M1 tanks from the USA or Leopard 2s from German reserve stocks in any are left.

Ukraine needs a way to counter the Russian Artillery, especially if things get bogged down into attritional warfare. THey need long range systems like the M270 MLRS as well as Artillery finding radar. For air defence, NATO is limited in what it can deliver besides MANPADS. Above this NATO only has Patriot, though there might be some Roland SAM systems available. The British Sky Sabre would be an ideal weapon but this is only just entering service with the British Army.

As stated in the previous post, NATO must wake up and increase its stocks of ammunition and other consumables. NATO countries have never held large stocks even during the Cold War, the USA excepted, but having seen the consumption rate of these in the war in Ukraine they should have a far better understanding on what stocks need to be held. Spending money on these things is never popular with nations Financial Ministries, but this needs to be over ridden. Production lines for key weapons like NLAW need to be maintained and the capability to accelerate production put in place. AS a priority NATO needs to increase its joint stores depots, where any nation can obtain consumables from. Historically the USA provided the majority of items held in these but Europe needs to take a larger share of the burden.

[Caribbean]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ssile.html

Daily Mail reporting Ukrainian claims to have attacked and badly damaged the Slava-class cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea, using two Neptune anti-ship missiles. It seems that Russia acknowledge that something has happened, but are claiming that it was an ammunition-handling incident, with the crew being evacuated because of the risk of explosion. Some sources are claiming that the ship has since sunk.

[Jdam]

So something has happened to the Moskva

If the Ukrainian's have had the ability to strike Russian ships why wait to now?

[Caribbean]

So something has happened to the Moskva

If the Ukrainian's have had the ability to strike Russian ships why wait to now?

No idea - maybe they lost their stocks of existing missiles in earlier Russian strikes and had to build a few first? Or maybe they weren't actually Neptunes.

Maybe they simply didn't have the opportunity and the targeting data until now

[NickC]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ssile.html

Daily Mail reporting Ukrainian claims to have attacked and badly damaged the Slava-class cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea, using two Neptune anti-ship missiles. It seems that Russia acknowledge that something has happened, but are claiming that it was an ammunition-handling incident, with the crew being evacuated because of the risk of explosion. Some sources are claiming that the ship has since sunk.

Surprising as the ~12,000t Moskva in theory well kitted out to defend against sub-sonic anti-ship sea skimming missiles (the indigenous Ukrainian 870kg Neptune) Moskva fitted with 40x 170 kg, 12 km range OSA-MA SAMs and 6x AK-630s cannons, six barrel 30mm firing at ~ 5,000 rpm, no mention of soft kill capabilities.

It may well be that ship was unprepared for the attack or the missiles and cannon not up to the job of taking out a 870 kg missile at high subsonic speed due to its high kinetic energy of ~ 41 MJ, desperately need realistic trials of Phalanx and CAMM to prove either way. If understand correctly HMS Argyll Sea Ceptor trails Dec 2017 was targeting a Mirach drone at 2 km, ~70 kg at Mach 0.6 with only a minimal KE of 1.4 MJ.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sea- ... ete-at-sea

[Jdam]

Maybe 4 weeks of being on the war footing plus god knows how many false alarms got to the crew.

[Tempest414]

More and more weaponry, of a heavier and heavier nature is being sent faster and faster but is now leading to questions about how long NATO can keep this up for (the corollary of course being that if this is what the war is doing to stocks across the whole of NATO what the hell must it be doing to Russia's stocks....one thing that is apparent is that once this is done we need to invest in holding much larger stockpiles of ammo because in full scale war we would run out in no time at all, probably a week tops:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-unit ... -out-tanks

I find this interesting but as said on the NLAW site back in March between what Ukraine had and what NATO has sent they have had some 40,000 high impact weapons it is more like 50,000 now every thing from RPG-7 to Javelin

[Phil Sayers]

The British Sky Sabre would be an ideal weapon but this is only just entering service with the British Army.

Personally, I think sending our Rapier batteries would be ideal. We are replacing them anyway, they would still be pretty decent especially when compared to nothing at all and we can order more Sky Sabre to compensate.

[Scimitar54]

Training might be a problem ?

[SW1]

I got the impression that it’s more missiles than aircraft doing the damage in Ukraine, they already have the systems for detailing with helicopters and drones supplied so maybe rapier would be much use.

Given the volume of stuff going that direction now I wonder if anyone is worried that it may not all end up in friendly hands and maybe sold on to others wonder how carefully we’re watching

[bobp]

No way did all the crew survive this. In stormy sea as well.

[Phil Sayers]

Given the volume of stuff going that direction now I wonder if anyone is worried that it may not all end up in friendly hands and maybe sold on to others wonder how carefully we’re watching

I could potentially see Ukraine, if they secure a victory, then being tempted (whether the govt as a whole or individuals) to transfer some of the MANPADs they have received to Syria so that the rebels there can also start downing Russian aircraft. That would potentially lead to a risk to passenger jets down the line but on balance I wouldn't have much of a problem with them doing so - it would definitely save lives there weighed against a theoretical and probably fairly small risk - the Reagan administration used to hand out Stingers like confetti in the 80s to some pretty nasty customers without serious negative consequences.

Other than that I could see this war potentially leading to an insurgency in Belarus (plenty of Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine) and in that instance I'd have no problem whatsoever.

[sunstersun]

Ukraine is gonna change from 152 to 155 and then we can send 10k guided ammunition which cost 35k a pop. Drones have been able to rein with minimal interference, which is a shocker even for the drones, drones, drones fanclub most of us are. Artillery being king on the battlefield again thanks to drone recon is kinda funny. I guess those hot air ballon spotters in WW1 had the right idea.

Russia is fighting lend lease with the anti lend-lease(sanctions) we just need to bide the training time. I expect Bradleys in the next tranche of deliveries.

Not to get too optimistic or something.

[Jdam]

[TheLoneRanger]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... dmits.html

The ship has sunk and hundreds are thought to have died in the initial strike by anti-shipping missiles.

Impressive hit by Ukraine to take this ship down and at over 12k tonnes, it will be some time before Russian can build a replacement for it.

[Jdam]

So has the cause be determined yet?

[Scimitar54]

Icebergs in the Black Sea ?