The war in Ukraine

[SW1]

Interesting change of emphasis coming out of Moscow

[bobp]

Interesting change of emphasis coming out of Moscow

Face saving exercise beginning perhaps?

[Tempest414]

With somewhere between 18 & 20,000 wounded and dead now if they go in to the cities they can double than and more

[Lord Jim]

From What I have read it is more about linking the Crimea, it is just that "Liberating" the Donbass achieves this.

[mr.fred]

An interesting view on the whole situation. Ties up with a lot of what I'd heard but not seen explained

[Phil Sayers]

Woah - Wall Street Journal and the investigative website Bellingcat are claiming that members of a Ukrainian negotiating team (plus Roman Abramovich who was also present and apparently lost all vision for hours) who attended a negotiation back at the start of the month have suffered symptoms, from which they are thankfully now recovered, consistent with low dose nerve agent poisoning.

If true (and I rather suspect it is) this seems to me a "F*ck you very much" message from Putin to Biden in response to the latter's initial warnings of a chemical red line and may have prompted the more recent warnings. He has deliberately, provocatively, breached the red line but done so in such a low key manner that Biden many neither wish nor be able to respond to it. May also explain why Biden has been emphasising that response will be proportionate to the situation.

WSJ article (unfortunately behind paywall): https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abra ... 1648480493

Bellingcat Twitter thread:

[SW1]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f675 ... c9bcb4b92e#

[SW1]

[sunstersun]

Boris has got it right, the sanctions need to stay even after a ceasefire, to ensure Russia is weakened permanently.

Don't let them regroup like 1989, and do this 10 times worth as a Chinese vassel.

[Lord Jim]

Ukraine needs to become like Sweden and Finland, not members of NATO but taking part in joint exercises as partners. AS for teh sanctions, they need to stay until Russia fully meets the tern of any peace deal. If Crimea for example is not recognised as Russian Territory by Ukraine the sanctions stay until it is returned to Ukrainian control and Russian Forces leave.

The way forward should be a Ceasefire and all forces return to their position prior to the war starting, then peace talks can begin. UN Observers will be needed to ensure each side respects the ceasefire conditions whilst the talks are on going. In no way should a ceasefire allow Russian forces to maintain their forward positions and re supply, nor should any Russian aircraft enter Ukrainian airspace during this time.

I can see Russia possibly gain some of the Donbass but the Crimea and the territory linking it to the Donbass are going to be a big ask of the Ukrainians. But with the Donbass, Putin will have met one of his key objectives, to protect the Russian population in those regions.

I cannot help but think how the Russian Military would fair against NATO, considering how it has handled the war in Ukraine. I am sure they would be very reliant on their GBAD systems as their Air Force would struggle against NATO fighters. The Army's apparent lack of ability to manoeuvre effectively if confirmed would put them at a severe disadvantage verses NATO ground units. It is their Artillery that is probably their strongest assets, so NATO need to ensure it has an effective means to deal with it.

[Caribbean]

I've heard that Oryx are suffering from the workload, but I think they've totally given up on this one

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 9856978944

Love some of the comments, though

[Mercator]

[Australian PM] Scott Morrison says Australia will send Bushmasters to Ukraine and fill Volodymyr Zelenskyy's request
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-01/ ... /100957634

How and how many is unclear. But something, definitely.

[seaspear]

I understand the R.A.A.Fs C-17 can carry 4 Bushmasters each as to how many , This article suggests Australia has a surplus
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-01/ ... /100958322

[Mercator]

[Australian PM] Scott Morrison says Australia will send Bushmasters to Ukraine and fill Volodymyr Zelenskyy's request
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-01/ ... /100957634

How and how many is unclear. But something, definitely.

[Tempest414]

Well I am sure the UK could send a Battalion worth of vehicles say a mix of Mastiff , Ridgeback's and Panthers plus some Land Rover RWMIK's

[Tempest414]

the Other thing we could do is send a Point class to Australia to pick up the Bushmasters as soon as they are on the boat the Dutch could put theirs on a train to Poland

[Phil Sayers]

Further humiliation for Russia. In a war where they should have air supremacy over Ukraine, they don't even have it over Russia:

[Enigmatically]

Still no clear news of the longer range weapons UK is sending. Supposedly include coastal defence, implying anti-ship missiles.
I guess we'll find out when more Russian eq starts falling, sinking, blowing up or being dragged off by tractors

[TheLoneRanger]

Wow -



The first video of the Starstream SAM taking down a Russian Helicopter. (not fully confirmed - assuming it is )

[TheLoneRanger]

Times Article.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-m ... -tztnmxqr2

( Boooo on paywalls !!! )

[NickC]

Not according to Moose on Secret Projects UK ?

"No, you can see the missile's motor burning in the frame before impact, which you wouldn't see from Starstreak's darts. This particular hit was a conventional MANPAD"

[Lord Jim]

What coastal defence weapons systems does the UK actually have? The last I remember was the jury rigged Exocet battery that was at Gibraltar. The only way we could provide such a system would be to pay for either new kit or kit from a third party, to be sent to Ukraine either direct or via RAF transport.

[Jdam]

Coastal defence weapons?!? I don't think we have any anti-ship missiles to give Ukraine that could make a dent in what they are facing.

[sarcasm]If only our pathetic anti-ship missile situation have been noted sooner we could have been able to do something about it.[/sarcasm]

This might be a situation where someone else will need to stand up and help, any one in Eastern Europe got some ex Russian stuff that Ukraine may already be trained in?

[NickC]

Coastal defence weapons?!? I don't think we have any anti-ship missiles to give Ukraine that could make a dent in what they are facing.

[sarcasm]If only our pathetic anti-ship missile situation have been noted sooner we could have been able to do something about it.[/sarcasm]

This might be a situation where someone else will need to stand up and help, any one in Eastern Europe got some ex Russian stuff that Ukraine may already be trained in?

NSM - Poland bought first Coastal Defence System in 2008 and second 2014, RN spends its funding on buying 3 T26 for £4.7 billion plus and trying to fix T45 propulsion system.

https://www.kongsberg.com/newsandmedia/ ... th-poland/

[Jdam]

Truck launched NSM might be a good option for them. I wonder if anyone would be willing to part with them.

I think there will be some interesting thoughts on stock piles of weapons after this war I think. (That said you kind of seen that with Aster 30 in the last review)