If defence spending rises to 3% GDP then 1 or possibly 2 LPHs is perfectly affordable but F35 capable might be a stretch. I am expecting a complete reassessment of the UK armed forces before the Autumn budget as the MoD will need to show in detail where any further uplift in the budget will be spent. No guarantees but a further funding lift is virtually inevitable to offset inflation or the chopping block will be out again.
In general I would expect the UK’s ASW and BMD capabilities to get strengthened, the Royal Marines/FCF and Royal Artillery strength in depth enhanced and F35 and Protector numbers to increase further.
However, a complete rethink of the British Army’s Challenger 3, Boxer, Ajax direction of travel may now be warranted even if further delays are highly unpalatable. It is becoming increasingly apparent that drones verses heavy armour is becoming the equivalent of battleships verses aircraft carriers in WW2. Drones are the future and MBT’s are the past.
If I am correct how does this alter Amphibious ops?
What drones are now required to achieve tactical superiority for the FCF?
Do the LCU replacements even need to accommodate 60t-80t MBT’s anymore?
Are high speed and long endurance LCU’s now essential to allow a OTH capability for the FCF?
Are future Amphibious landing operations now going to have to be conducted under the umbrella of Sky Sabre ashore or CAMM on a T31/32?
Given the very real dangers of long range artillery, precision strikes and loitering suicide drones, even unloading at a ‘safe’ port is still highly risky and relying on a payload of only 12 CAMM for protection is laughable.
I suspect the future of reconnaissance is drone based both on land and in the air which will require large numbers of drones launched with the Amphibious force. Relying on Protector seems unwise due to increased drone attrition as countermeasures improve.
Given all these considerations I suspect a drone optimised MRSS based on a mini LHD design is plausible albeit virtually unique when compared with anything afloat today. Adapting the design of the MRSS to launch/recover simple drones with a 200kg to 300kg payload really shouldn’t be that expensive or complicated.