The war in Ukraine

[albedo]

Might be of interest:

[Phil Sayers]

Several Russian helicopters burning at Kherson airport following a Ukrainian attack (not seen anything saying how yet):

[SKB]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... an-attack/

[seaspear]

In respect of the non supply of Polish military aircraft to Ukraine would a supply of the Polish t72 be more practical

[bobp]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... an-attack/

Hopefully these darts will fall into uk hands for reverse engineering purposes. Though we have britecloud in service I believe.

[NickC]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... an-attack/

Hopefully these darts will fall into uk hands for reverse engineering purposes. Though we have britecloud in service I believe.

Must say impressed how the decoys incorporated into the design of the Iskander SRBM, would US Patriot, THAAD and Aster etc missiles and radars be able to discriminate Iskander from the decoys. Also wonder if the new eqivilent US Army PrSM has decoys, British Army plans to buy the PrSM, contracted with Lockheed to update 44 MLRS for £315 million and plans to develop a new Fire Control System collaboratively between the US, UK, Italy and Finland.

[Lord Jim]

I hope that is only the initial purchase by the UK. With each GMLRS able to carry four, we would run out in a hurry in any Peer level conflict.

[Tempest414]

So thinking ahead if Ukraine agree to go neutral and have a smaller force what should they do. I was thinking if this was the case I would be looking at a full time force of 100,000 with

Army 80, 000 split into 9 BCT's

3 x Armoured BCT's
4 x motorized BCT's
2 x Deep fires BCT's

Air Force 15,000 into 6 Wings

1 x fast jet wing 30 jets ( maybe F-16's )
1 x Helicopter wing 60 Helicopters
1 x transport wing 10 transports
2 x GBAD wings with 5 Sqn's each
1 x Training wing

Navy 5000

5 x 60 meter fast attack ships
10 x 40 meter OPV's
6 units of land based anti ship missiles

Reserves Force

Army 10 x Battalion battle groups
Air force 10 Sqn's
Navy 6 units of land based defence

[wargame_insomniac]

Well the first priority is for Ukraine to survive as an independant state. Given how well they have resisted and defended so far, that prospet seems to be higher than when invasion was first launched. But they key question is on what terms? i.e. how sucessful would Putin be in his wish for Ukraine to be de-militarised?

Hopefully the US, EU and UK will be able to help an independant Ukraine rebuild. But much of that money will be to rebuild the demolished basic infrastucture - roads, water, electricity, houses, schools, hospitals etc. I don't know what priority miltary spending would be, and that is before considering Russian goal of de-militarisation.

I can't see big ticket items like F16's being realistic. Maybe Poland and the other East European states might be able to finally gift Ukraine their remaining Soviet jets, tanks, APC's, artillery etc after the war. Possibly covered by Poland etc buying newer US equipment.

I know Babcock had signed a contract to build 1*T31 Frigate and several patrol boats - no idea if this will be actioned post-war.

But again. first priority has to be that Ukraine survives as an independant state, hopefully with as little casualties and damage as possible, although with Russian forces resorting back to their massed firepower tactics, that hope becomes increasingly slender.

[Tempest414]

They will have a military at the end of this and they will need to keep it at a level as Russia's guarantee's , guarantee nothing

[wargame_insomniac]

They will have a military at the end of this and they will need to keep it at a level as Russia's guarantee's , guarantee nothing

I would love nothing more than to see an independant free Ukraine, linked economically and miltarily to the West through EU / NATO, with Ukraine free to equip their armed forces with whatever equipment they can afford. I would hope that Ukraine would remember that UK was one of the few countries to give them support and training post invasion of Crimea in 2014, and that UK were were one of the few countries to send them miltary supplies before the Russian invasion last month.

But unless Putin is deposed, for the war to end without too much further bloodshed and devastation, then realistically Putin is going to want to achieve SOME of his objectives. Imagine having a choice: fighting to end in the next few days and Ukraine to agree to be formerly demiltarised. OR Ukraine to fight on until the western sanctions finally bite vs Russia, with the result of many tens of thousands of Ukranian civilian casualties as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa all completely reduced to rubble from Russian artillery/bombing, as the Russians revert to their usual tactic of indiscrimiate overwhelming firepower.

Again, I hope the latter does not come to pass, and I hope that the war is concluded sooner because Ukraine is able to rsist the Russian attacks and that Putin is deposed. But this is no time to start planning fantasy Ukranian army structure and equipment....

[dmereifield]

They will have a military at the end of this and they will need to keep it at a level as Russia's guarantee's , guarantee nothing

I would love nothing more than to see an independant free Ukraine, linked economically and miltarily to the West through EU / NATO, with Ukraine free to equip their armed forces with whatever equipment they can afford. I would hope that Ukraine would remember that UK was one of the few countries to give them support and training post invasion of Crimea in 2014, and that UK were were one of the few countries to send them miltary supplies before the Russian invasion last month.

But unless Putin is deposed, for the war to end without too much further bloodshed and devastation, then realistically Putin is going to want to achieve SOME of his objectives. Imagine having a choice: fighting to end in the next few days and Ukraine to agree to be formerly demiltarised. OR Ukraine to fight on until the western sanctions finally bite vs Russia, with the result of many tens of thousands of Ukranian civilian casualties as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa all completely reduced to rubble from Russian artillery/bombing, as the Russians revert to their usual tactic of indiscrimiate overwhelming firepower.

Again, I hope the latter does not come to pass, and I hope that the war is concluded sooner because Ukraine is able to rsist the Russian attacks and that Putin is deposed. But this is no time to start planning fantasy Ukranian army structure and equipment....

No sane Government would agree to de-militarise and accept becoming a vassal state, susceptible to be re-invaded at Putin's whim

[wargame_insomniac]

They will have a military at the end of this and they will need to keep it at a level as Russia's guarantee's , guarantee nothing

I would love nothing more than to see an independant free Ukraine, linked economically and miltarily to the West through EU / NATO, with Ukraine free to equip their armed forces with whatever equipment they can afford. I would hope that Ukraine would remember that UK was one of the few countries to give them support and training post invasion of Crimea in 2014, and that UK were were one of the few countries to send them miltary supplies before the Russian invasion last month.

But unless Putin is deposed, for the war to end without too much further bloodshed and devastation, then realistically Putin is going to want to achieve SOME of his objectives. Imagine having a choice: fighting to end in the next few days and Ukraine to agree to be formerly demiltarised. OR Ukraine to fight on until the western sanctions finally bite vs Russia, with the result of many tens of thousands of Ukranian civilian casualties as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa all completely reduced to rubble from Russian artillery/bombing, as the Russians revert to their usual tactic of indiscrimiate overwhelming firepower.

Again, I hope the latter does not come to pass, and I hope that the war is concluded sooner because Ukraine is able to rsist the Russian attacks and that Putin is deposed. But this is no time to start planning fantasy Ukranian army structure and equipment....

No sane Government would agree to de-militarise and accept becoming a vassal state, susceptible to be re-invaded at Putin's whim

OK - so YOU are Ukranian President. How many people do YOU sacrifice to carry on fighting because you want to remain militarised?

Ten thousand? Hundred thousand? A million? Ten million? More?

There will be a tipping point beyond which it is better to accept being a settlement with Ukraine as a free independant state but demilitarised and guaranteed neutrality, or fight on and be a President of a graveyard. Different people will have different tipping points. It sounds like yours might be higher than most.

That's just geopolitics. It is not black and white - its shades of grey. There is no absolute right answer. Its just trying to get the best answer for country as a whole.

Again - I restate what I said before "I would love nothing more than to see an independant free Ukraine, linked economically and miltarily to the West through EU / NATO, with Ukraine free to equip their armed forces with whatever equipment they can afford."

I hope that Putin gets overthrown asap as the western sanctions bite. I hope that Ukraine can preserve as much of it's cities and population as possible as it will be a lomg rebuilding job. But let's not start planning the Ukranian armed forces post-war defence acquisitions until we know what the full situation is.....

[dmereifield]

"is better to accept being a settlement with Ukraine as a free independant state but demilitarised and guaranteed neutrality,..."

You cannot be a free independent state, bordering Russia, if you demilitarise.

What the last few weeks has demonstrated is that Putin/Russia will invade if he/it thinks it can win, and that a strong military can successfully repel such an invasion (or at least stall it indefinitely, in effect).

The only thing stopping Putin from absorbing Ukraine into the Russian federation is Ukrainian military force, and you think they will then disband that military force? There is no call from the people of Ukraine to do so, nor will there be. They won't even accept ceding territory to Russia to end the war. They will outlast Russia, Putin will need to concede on his ambitions before the Ukrainians would ever consider demilitarising

[wargame_insomniac]

"is better to accept being a settlement with Ukraine as a free independant state but demilitarised and guaranteed neutrality,..."

You cannot be a free independent state, bordering Russia, if you demilitarise.

What the last few weeks has demonstrated is that Putin/Russia will invade if he/it thinks it can win, and that a strong military can successfully repel such an invasion (or at least stall it indefinitely, in effect).

The only thing stopping Putin from absorbing Ukraine into the Russian federation is Ukrainian military force, and you think they will then disband that military force? There is no call from the people of Ukraine to do so, nor will there be. They won't even accept ceding territory to Russia to end the war. They will outlast Russia, Putin will need to concede on his ambitions before the Ukrainians would ever consider demilitarising

Will just have to wait and see whether President Zelensky thinks as you do or whether he is willing to make compromises for the sake of his people.

[Tempest414]

There are levels of demilitarization in the case of Ukraine going from a total force across all services of 200,000 to 100,000 and defensive in standing is demilitrization most if not all neutral states have a military

[dmereifield]

Of course he is willing to make compromises. He has already indicated so (e.g. that Ukraine will no longer pursue joining Nato). He will make others. But, demilitarisation is not a compromise, it's a capitulation that would leave all of his citizens at risk of (and that risk would be realised at some point) another invasion and subjugation. He won't do that.

Some face saving excercises for Putin on that front could include an agreement not to expand Ukrainian military beyond a certain point/size/capacity/GDP spend. Zelensky could sign a treaty committing to, for example:

- not joining Nato
- not pursuing/developing nuclear weapons*
- not to pursuing/developing biological/cgemical weapons*
- not to exceed, for example, 5% GDP spend on defence*
- not to aquire aircraft carriers or nuclear powered vessels*
- not to host permanent foreign military bases
Etc

* all of these are pain free for Ukriane since they are not realistic goals, but could provide a face saving excercise for Putin in regards to assuaging his (illegitimate) concerns of Ukrainian military ambitions that he used a s a pretext for invasion.

In addition, he could recognise Russian claims to Crimea (though this will be obviously a much more painful compromise).

In short, compromises - yes, but not ones that leave you completely exposed to the bully next time, who when he comes back will then be able to take everything he wants when you can no longer stand up to him

[SW1]

https://www.investigate-europe.eu/en/20 ... to-russia/

Our destinies are linked. Ukraine is part of the European family. Vladimir Putin’s aggression is an aggression against all the principles we hold dear” said EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. Last week’s Versailles summit showed how the European Union is trying to unite after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yet, just over a year ago, Vladimir Putin and his army were still good customers of the European arms industry. A third of the European Union’s member states exported arms to the Russian Federation, according to data from the official Working Party of the Council on Conventional Arms Exports (COARM), analysed by Investigate Europe.

This data from all EU-27 official arms exports registers shows that between 2015 and 2020, at least 10 EU member states have exported a total of €346 million worth of arms to Russia.s. France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Slovakia and Spain – to different extents – have sold “military equipment” to Russia. Our investigation shows that the term “military equipment” is broad and can include missiles, bombs, torpedoes, guns and rockets, land vehicles and ships.

[Lord Jim]

There are pictures of Russian snipers using European Bolt Action Rifles together with optics as one example. It seem to be specialist kit, mainly for their SF rather then general issue.

[Caribbean]

Meanwhile, a glimpse of what the Russian audience is being fed
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/15 ... submarine/
https://english.pravda.ru/world/150548-barbarossa_nato/

[Little J]

Erm.... Yea... OK...

[TheLoneRanger]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... ews-agency

[Phil Sayers]

The Russian occupied port of Berdyansk is ablaze following a reported Ukrainian ballistic missile strike. An Alligator class landing ship has exploded and a couple of other ships damaged along with various port facilities. No word on casualties yet although probably just a skeleton crew while alongside?

[Jdam]

There has been talk of it being a UAV, if that was the case why wouldn't they target the other ships as well? (or was it just a target of opportunity)

[Caribbean]

There has been talk of it being a UAV, if that was the case why wouldn't they target the other ships as well? (or was it just a target of opportunity)

It could have been - one of the two rapidly exiting the port was also on fire - though that could have been a secondary caused by exploding cargo on the Orsk