The war in Ukraine

[ArmChairCivvy]

- 1 Su-30SM jet
- 2 Su-34 jets

These are tpo end... and will start to hurt (as in 'the inventory' and the capability to start ops somewhere else... if Putin were THAT crazy)

[ArmChairCivvy]

I wonder how many of the initial 200 or so Toschkas are still there , for any counter-strikes?

And conversely, as they did leave mobilisation so late, how many arms depos got hit and therefore some of the things that should be in action never got 'past the gate'?

[dmereifield]

It seems to me that as things stand, Putin is going to fail to take Ukraine.

I'm going only by what I've seen on Twitter (which will likely be slanted in favour of showing Russian losses), but from what I can see:

The convoy North of Kyiv is stalled and falling to pieces

Ukrainian forces have halted advances North West of Kyiv (including flooding of large regions making them impassable) and have retaken key towns - thus halting the encirclement

Ukrainian (armed forces and civilian) morale is high, Russian morale is low

Russian forces continue to have serious supply issues

Russian forces cannot achieve air superiority (or not yet already, apparently UAF still have a majority of the air assets operable)

Russian equipment has not been well maintained, and is causing many vehicles to be lost or abandoned

Ukrainian forces are receiving increasingly large volumes of materiel (especially ant air and tank munitions) from allies, and abandoned Russian equipment/munitions

Reports of successful counter offenses in servers key towns regions in the past day or two

High Russion levels of attrition (over 700 tanks/vehicles/aircraft etc, including 10 aircraft today alone and 5,000-10,000 troops) that cannot be sustained for much longer

Crippling sanctions and cutting off of Russia from the Western world, which cannot be sustained by Putin (personally), his cronies or the Russian economy at large for more than a week or two

It seems that the chances of successfully taking Ukraine are not great, achieving it within a week or so before the RuAF and Russian economy is exhausted is even less likely, and then holding it with the resources that would take is nut feasible.....

Well, just my thoughts which are probably biased by my hopes and based on lay interpretations of somewhat questionable data/info...

[seaspear]

Can you provide independent sources for Russia's attrition rates as there is so much exaggeration from both sides ?

[Phil Sayers]

It seems to me that as things stand, Putin is going to fail to take Ukraine.

Entirely agree. To me it seems that for as long as the Ukrainian population are behind the continued sacrificing of Ukrainian blood in the cause of Ukrainian freedom AND The West remains willing to back them in full scale proxy war to do so AND The West retains the means to back them in full scale proxy warfare, then Putin cannot win. He can't even win the conventional war let alone the insurgency that could follow.

It is the last of those requirements - that the West retains the means to continue to supply Ukraine - that concerns me the most in terms of how this may play out. In particular what happens if Belarus and / or Russia move to take control of the Poland / Ukraine border. I cannot see how the Polish government could view that as anything other than a grave threat to national security. They will wish to preserve the wider Western ability to continue to arm Ukraine over that border and will also be highly concerned about how refugees could be 'weaponised' in the other direction - considering especially Belarus's recent practice of doing exactly that. The safest thing to do is to do all we can to ensure that Ukraine can keep the border under their control so we don't need to find out whether Poland would order troops across.

[Phil Sayers]

Can you provide independent sources for Russia's attrition rates as there is so much exaggeration from both sides ?

Have a look through this list - all that equipment is documented by video or photograph. The real losses (on both sides) will be much higher still than what is shown here:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

[SW1]

I go back to the Iraq war in 2003 for something roughly similar to what is happening only Ukraine is nearly twice the size and the population largely
more hostile it took America and us arguably the most powerful force ever fielded over a month to take the capital. This is a war in its early days there is no way of knowing how it will play out. I ready do hope the Ukrainians can hold out but my goodness it’s gonna be at some cost because the images from the eastern and south city’s show that Russia is raising them to the ground.

[dmereifield]

The source cited by Phil Sayers seems to be a decent one. Just today this source has indicated that the RuAF have lost 6 fast jets of various classes, 4 helicopters and a large UAV. In total, according to that source, the RuAF have lost over 100 tanks and 100 armoured fighting vehicles. That's just what's been documented visually (photo/recordings) and released into the public domain, so it's likely much higher in reality.

Also, its Western intelligence (US/UK) making statements which confirm Ukrainian reports about Russian failure for air superiority and that the Ukrainian airforce is still operational.

If the Ukrainians can hold Kiev and maintain a corridor west to Poland for another week, Putin is fucked. God knows what happens next

[Enigmatically]

I didn't think Ukraine could defeat the invasion (apart from through insurgency), but I am starting to wonder. The Russian armed forces do seem to have been surprised by the resistance and the failure to catch either of the airport's around Kyiv really seems to have screwed them.
They then don't seem to have adapted and are sending in troops quite dumbly. And it does seem that a lot of soldiers aren't interested. The number of abandoned vehicles is incredible. So I am daring to hope. The risk is in the south -especially now it seems Belarus troops will rebel rather than invade Ukraine

[Phil Sayers]

This is madness:

[ArmChairCivvy]

(including flooding of large regions making them impassable) and have retaken key towns - thus halting the encirclement

A major development; I wonder why so few things are coming thru (and news reporting has been for days fixated on that column) especially from the South
-everyone in Europe did wake up when the shooting at the nuclear power plant started; the Ruskies were v careful with Chernobyl as it is so close to them, but did not have a problem with the nuclear waste storage plant in Kiev... putting a rocket or two on it

[ArmChairCivvy]

This is the only serious attempt on the go (as what was agreed in the direct negotiations about evacuation corridors only led to the shelling of those who were gathering for departure) that I know, quote from AP;
"Bennett’s office said he departed early Saturday morning for Moscow, accompanied by Russian-speaking Cabinet minister Zeev Elkin, who was born in Ukraine. Both men are observant Jews and wouldn’t normally travel on the Sabbath.

Israel is one of the few countries that has good working relations with both sides. The country has delivered humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but also maintains ties with Moscow to make sure that Israeli and Russian warplanes do not come into conflict in neighboring Syria.

The meeting ended after about three hours, according to an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said the meeting was coordinated with the U.S., Germany and France and that Bennett “is in ongoing dialogue with Ukraine.”["]
- he is now off, to see the German Chancellor next, after the above 3 hr meeting (so there must be some substance in this). Sounds like an extended Normandy group, with a go-between

PS If anyone has missed it, the Ukrainian "nazi" president is Jewish

[ArmChairCivvy]

What's happening after the financial collapse in Russia? If the banks are geared to the hilt (12.5 times the deposit base), they will collapse after a deposit run. And there is a run (not just to hedge against the rouble becoming worthless... so let's buy something that keeps its value) but to keep going as even anyone with a rainy-day fund abroad cannot access it now, after Visa & MC closed down not just their cards issued in Russia but all payments with cards in Russia.

And after the banks not extending credit, not only investments stop but also working capital dries up. For the latter, big companies will be helped out by the state. But the rest?
- add foreign companies closing down and hundreds of thousands of immediately unemployed

Well that is nothing compared to being bombed by 1000-pounders, as contested key cities in Ukraine are. But with the 1st week's stats on destroyed AFVs I calculated that it will take three weeks to get to the previous Winter War's total of c. 2400 - 3 and a half months it took for the latter tally
- that went with a third of a million KIA & wounded; which is not the case today. But neither is the Kreml figure of under 500. In the previous instance the medical trains could not stop in Leningrad but had to carry on all the way to Moscow. It will be quite a challenge to keep the (more modest) movements to nearby Russian cities under censorship wraps - especially as other hospitals have been asked to nominate 1 in 4 in staff for immediate transfer (when so requested).

UN count for refugees that have crossed the borders now stands at 1.45 mln. That includes 21 000 who were on hols in Egypt and are now being ferried (not back home, but) to Europe by flag carriers, for free.

[Enigmatically]

This is madness:

But there is a good example of my confusion. That convoy was not destroyed, it was primarily abandoned. Where are all the troops?

[ArmChairCivvy]

Here https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/d ... -army.html one can see the proportion of abandoned (=captured) vehicles in total 'damage'
- of course the list does not cover 100% as all are video/photo evidenced

[ArmChairCivvy]

Clicked on wrong one. here comes
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

[TheLoneRanger]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... es-oil-ban

Looks like the Americans have taken over the job of figruing out how to send fighter jets that Ukraine needs. The Americans could base American jets in those countries on a 1:1 basis for every jet they give to Ukraine until the NATO banner until the replacement jet's are made available.

[Tempest414]

For me Russia know it has lost and it is now about destroying as much of Ukraine as possible before has to give it up

[TheLoneRanger]

Did waiting to start the war after the olympics cost the russians the war ? ( ie the weather turned and became a bit warmer that their forces got bogged down instead of being a Blitzkrieg ... would be interesting if true)

[seaspear]

With regards to the frozen funds belonging to Russia is there any legal precedent that Ukraine may through the international courts have access to those funds as reparations ?

[Enigmatically]

Did waiting to start the war after the olympics cost the russians the war ? ( ie the weather turned and became a bit warmer that their forces got bogged down instead of being a Blitzkrieg ... would be interesting if true)

It certainly didn't help. But I don't think it's the only factor. But perhaps we should say thanks to China

[Enigmatically]

With regards to the frozen funds belonging to Russia is there any legal precedent that Ukraine may through the international courts have access to those funds as reparations ?

The US was considering selling some of the assets they froze and giving the money to Ukraine, so I guess so.
To my mind we should at least be saying we will seize those frozen assets unless the war stops by date X. Or saying we will seize 1% a day or something. That will concentrate the oligarchs minds more if they know they might not get it back when it's all over

[ArmChairCivvy]

seize 1% a day or something

Good thinking; though they owe 800mln+interest to Khodorkovski... so why not start with that. There in an intl court ruling.

The count from Ukrainian side for hardware (losses of the Russian army) as for now is:
285 MBTs, 985 other AFVs and (not said which SP, and thus armoured) 109 artillery/rocket systems

[ArmChairCivvy]

A good walk-thru of economic impacts https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... =DM1549459

Where the compensation to family/ parents of a dead soldier is mentioned, the figure (half of the GBP 49k mentioned) is omitted as for those wounded (I guess just for the technicality that the recipient is the person himself).

[dmereifield]

Here we go:

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-defence-b ... e-12559092

Even the Labour(!) Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Secretary of Defence are calling the prior announced defence cuts to be halted and expecting (seemingly advocating) and increase I'd defence spending, respectively.

So expect it to be in the budget at the 3nd of the month. The only question is how much, when and for how long. Then, what it's spent on...

I'd suggest that at the very least those cuts are gone for the medium term, all the CH2 (as many as possible, not just 148) will be upgraded, munitions donated to Ukraine restocked (and stocks increased), T31 a proper GP frigate, commitment to additional F35Bs, retaining Typhoon tranche 1, ASM of some kind for the RN and a bit more....