The war in Ukraine

[Jensy]

It is a real shame that Ukraine lacks the current resources to do a fighter jet low level sweep of the convoy that is heading towards the capital. Brimstone would had a field day for sure.

The anti-tank weapons are doing a fantastic job as are the Manpads. Russian Su-34s are having to fly at tree top level at what looks like supersonic speeds... as any higher, they will be engaged by sams and any slower - the manpads will have enough time to lock on to them and take them out.. what accuracy the Su-34s are getting at this level is of course - debateable.

I am hoping that the ukranian airforce gets a few batches of mig-29s to supplement what they have very very soon.

Quite the restocking:



Seen suggestions that the preparations are taking place in Poland, with Ukrainian pilots then flying them over the border.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Mig29s were originally great dog fighters and are even better now (30 yrs later!) after the extensive Polish upgrades (22 of theirs were bought from Germany, for 22 euros).
- the Bulgarian examples are not at the same level, but 'ready to fly' nevertheless

Can anyone remind us what the Su-25s will be good for?

A thing that is striking in many news photos is that both civilians and Ukrainian troops are carefully gathering ammo boxes in after-action scenes
-most new NATO countries have gone (early) over to NATO rounds in their infantry weapons and resupply - at this intensity of actions - to the Ukrainians has few sources. Other than from their own, of which I have no knowledge. Hopefully not the US model where a single facility makes them all (million rounds a day may be impressive, but that clearly is a single point of failure)

[SW1]

If Russia has awacs up I find it incredible these get to fly in without being attacked either in the air or whenever they land. Also how long they keep them in the air when they get to where there going

[ArmChairCivvy]

Sure they do, the 8th of these https://tass.com/defense/1382183
due to be delivered in 2023.

But the above comment appeared without setting context? If it is about how hunter-killer drones have been able to survive and operate successfully, I would rather ask: don't Russian fighters have look-down radars?

If they do, is it the fact that they have to fly low and v fast in order not to be picked up by SAMs (low bcz of the Soviet-era SAMs and fast to avoid Stingers locking onto them) that has kept them ineffective in providing cover for their ground columns... and probably making life difficult for any other missions, too?

[SW1]

Sure they do, the 8th of these https://tass.com/defense/1382183
due to be delivered in 2023.

But the above comment appeared without setting context? If it is about how hunter-killer drones have been able to survive and operate successfully, I would rather ask: don't Russian fighters have look-down radars?

If they do, is it the fact that they have to fly low and v fast in order not to be picked up by SAMs (low bcz of the Soviet-era SAMs and fast to avoid Stingers locking onto them) that has kept them ineffective in providing cover for their ground columns... and probably making life difficult for any other missions, too?

It’s a very gd question. Maybe the drones are too slow and too small a signature to get picked up by the radar.

As for the sams I’ve no idea what Sams Ukraine has or indeed if the videos were seeing are Ukrainian or Russian a/c. But given the amount of manpads doing the rounds it’s mind boggling you’d choose low level you’d get above there zones unless your targeting systems aren’t very gd and they need to get lower.

[Lord Jim]

I wonder what the actually level of SEAD capability the Russian Air Force has? We know Ukraine has large Numbers of SA-8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and so on. So it doesn't have the latest gneeration of Russian SAMs but it had the very best of the previous generation. Then add Stinger and the large numbers of ZU-23-2 and they can make life difficult for the RuAF if the latter's SEAD is not up to scratch.

[UKD]

Can we not knock together ground launched Brimstone for the Ukrainians. I can't imagine anything in the world that would make a bigger difference for them right now with armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv.

They were test fired off the ground before they were ever hooked up to a wing pylon. In the Falkland's we had to do over-night adjustments on new NATO missiles that were unqualified for the Harrier's and those missiles turned the war.

Haul in MBDA off the books, give them 24 hours to figure out how to launch 3-4 Brimstone from the back of a small off-road vehicle. Vehicles that can rapidly move about in the deep away from front lines, low fuel consumption, highly mobile off-road, too small to be obvious targets for Russian air, easily airlift-able to Poland. Fit the vehicles with NATO radios so they can use grid square targeting from NATO ISR.

The Ukrainian's can use them as a swarm of deep fires vehicles, ideally paired up with shit loads of Stingers to protect them from helicopters. It will be very hard for the Russian's to take them all out and they could devastate Russian armour. Imagine eighty Brimstone coming down on that column out Kyiv right now.

[SW1]

The Russian economic move east

[RunningStrong]

Can we not knock together ground launched Brimstone for the Ukrainians. I can't imagine anything in the world that would make a bigger difference for them right now with armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not sure we should be putting the crown jewels of British missile technology in a position where the Russians could have a few samples.

[SW1]

And there it is I think the end of the beginning begins

[abc123]

Can anyone remind us what the Su-25s will be good for?

Attacking long russian columns?

Su-25 is Soviet version of A-10.

[wargame_insomniac]

And there it is I think the end of the beginning begins

What changed?

It seemed a great idea for Ukraine to acquire some additional jet fighters that it was used to using. Whilst the 3 countries could dispose of some older airframes before replacing them with more modern US jets. And the EU could have helped the transaction by central contingency funding.

[Tempest414]

Can we not knock together ground launched Brimstone for the Ukrainians. I can't imagine anything in the world that would make a bigger difference for them right now with armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not sure we should be putting the crown jewels of British missile technology in a position where the Russians could have a few samples.

I agree however as I have said a 100 or so Land Rover WMKI type vehicles with 12.7mm and 40mm GMG also carrying 6 or so NLAW maybe set up in Platoons of 10 Vehicles 2 x fire sections and Mortar section moving around at speed attacking the column and retire under Mortar cover from fast moving mortar teams

[Phil Sayers]

With regards the aircraft I have read that Bulgaria refused stating they did not have many serviceable aircraft themselves and those that they do have they need themselves. I'd guess Poland and Slovakia have explained it as being for similar reasons but whether those are the real reasons, or the real reason is concern about escalation, is open to speculation. This idea could always come back.

[SW1]

I think you need to remember that Ukraine is a vast vast country we probably aren’t seeing the full picture I’m sure there fighting hard.

It is so terribly sad to see so many frightened families who ask for none of it.


It appears america is moving armoured brigade combat team into Germany

Will be interesting to see if they will ship them... and keep the kit in Ft. Trump (I think that did not pass, in the end?), prepositioned, for another similar unit to be flown over (in more hurry).

Appears to be prepositioned

[Phil Sayers]

May just be wishful thinking but according to one US official the Russian convoy to the north of Kiev is now "mostly stalled". They have been having fuel (ironic since the convoy itself has a lot of fuel trucks) and parts shortages:




Spending months (years maybe) planning an invasion and having your main formation running low on fuel before a week is up shows a staggering level of logistical ineptitude.

[ArmChairCivvy]

If you read the trail of msgs around this 'convoy' it has gone from 3.7 mls to 40
- fed from its rear
- fed from units already along its trail
- dispersing (along the road) to avoid more than one hit fro a single shell

We hear nothing about this. The estimate is 10 000 troops and 3000 vehicles
... well, a mech formation of 7 000 with significant tank complement would be about 2500 vehicles. So that makes it a full-blown armoured BG with 3000 xtras, in 500 vehicles. Whether they are cooks & al, or nasty Ruskie MPs (not from the Duma) to suppress anything behind the spearhead; that is all guesswork

[bobp]

10 000 troops and 3000 vehicles

That is a lot of food, fuel and bullets they do not appear to have. More mystified as to the whereabouts of the Russian Air Force, do they lack supplies parts etc.

[RunningStrong]

Can we not knock together ground launched Brimstone for the Ukrainians. I can't imagine anything in the world that would make a bigger difference for them right now with armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not sure we should be putting the crown jewels of British missile technology in a position where the Russians could have a few samples.

I agree however as I have said a 100 or so Land Rover WMKI type vehicles with 12.7mm and 40mm GMG also carrying 6 or so NLAW maybe set up in Platoons of 10 Vehicles 2 x fire sections and Mortar section moving around at speed attacking the column and retire under Mortar cover from fast moving mortar teams

This isn't the open desert land. It's not easy to maneuver that quickly in parallel to the major road at the ranges necessary to have effective NLAW attacks or even Javelin.

The whole benefit of Brimstone is that it could be fired from greater distance and prioritise targets in the air.

[UKD]

Can we not knock together ground launched Brimstone for the Ukrainians. I can't imagine anything in the world that would make a bigger difference for them right now with armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not sure we should be putting the crown jewels of British missile technology in a position where the Russians could have a few samples.

If we give them Brimstone:

A) There's won't be many Russian tanks left to fight
B) You could cause a total rout of Russian forces, collapse of Putin politically and the end of Russia as an enemy of the West.
C) We intended to export Brimstone to Ukraine for their new boats anyway, so the GRU would likely always have had some access.
D) Brimstone is hardly secret sauce stuff, it's not Spear 3.

[Timmymagic]

What changed?

It seemed a great idea for Ukraine to acquire some additional jet fighters that it was used to using. Whilst the 3 countries could dispose of some older airframes before replacing them with more modern US jets. And the EU could have helped the transaction by central contingency funding.

What changed?

It appears to be very simple. The EU, as an organisation not the individual states, was getting frustrated at NATO getting all of the attention. Their dreams of an EU military were beginning to look more distant as NATO was looking lie the only game in town.

So what did they do? They decided to get more involved. Despite the fact that they have next to no experience in military matters the bureaucrats decided they'd have a punt. So they announced this policy without checking with the states that actually own the aircraft first...
As soon as those countries found out they immediately said no, and the entire idea has fallen apart in 24 hours. Being cynical I expect the 450mEUR on weapons to also fall apart shortly. After all everyone is sending munitions for free, clearing out any old weapons from their stockpiles so what are they going to buy? Weapons manufacturers don't have warehouses full of 'stock' ready to go, the EU has no experience buying weapons...if any of that actually gets to the Ukrainians in time I'd be amazed. If they just gave the money to the Ukrainians it would make more sense....but I don't think they'll do that.

The EU should have stuck to what it is good at. Promises of economic aid, reconstruction etc...

[Tempest414]

Can we not knock together ground launched Brimstone for the Ukrainians. I can't imagine anything in the world that would make a bigger difference for them right now with armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv.

I'm not sure we should be putting the crown jewels of British missile technology in a position where the Russians could have a few samples.

I agree however as I have said a 100 or so Land Rover WMKI type vehicles with 12.7mm and 40mm GMG also carrying 6 or so NLAW maybe set up in Platoons of 10 Vehicles 2 x fire sections and Mortar section moving around at speed attacking the column and retire under Mortar cover from fast moving mortar teams

This isn't the open desert land. It's not easy to maneuver that quickly in parallel to the major road at the ranges necessary to have effective NLAW attacks or even Javelin.

The whole benefit of Brimstone is that it could be fired from greater distance and prioritise targets in the air.

I would never say it is easy but it is kit they have now and could use and for me I would leave the bloody MBT's and hit troop carriers and fuel tucks they could do this from up to a km away with the 40mm GMG and 4 km's with mortars

Maybe the weapon they need is Hero 120 as it can be carried by foot troops can be launch from anywhere and has a 40 km range and 60 min loiter time and can take out APC's and the like

[Enigmatically]

Spending months (years maybe) planning an invasion and having your main formation running low on fuel before a week is up shows a staggering level of logistical ineptitude.

It is also a vindication of the western concentration on logistics, reliability and supportability (and training). The Russians may (and do) get more guns, tanks, ships and aircraft per rouble spent than the west, but that doesn't help if one week in to a conflict half of them are broken down, unserviceable, out of fuel or the troops don't know how to use them.

[SW1]

Thought we were called the borrowers in Iraq?

Major wars are difficult and nasty I wouldn’t read anything into any information coming out of Ukraine from either side to be honest. There is an understandable western narrative of bigging up sanctions and disparaging Russian effectiveness at present I think largely out of guilt that we’ve allowed Ukraine to be in the situation it is and that there is little we can actually do about it now but watch on in horror.

[Zero Gravitas]

Thought we were called the borrowers in Iraq?

Major wars are difficult and nasty I wouldn’t read anything into any information coming out of Ukraine from either side to be honest. There is an understandable western narrative of bigging up sanctions and disparaging Russian effectiveness at present I think largely out of guilt that we’ve allowed Ukraine to be in the situation it is and that there is little we can actually do about it now but watch on in horror.

Don't disagree with the general thrust of your point, but would add that don't underestimate that the 11th largest economy in the world has basically been turned into something closer to North Korea in around a week.

What is the point in being a billionaire oligarch if your yacht(s) have been take away and you can't travel to Europe anymore?

Putin is backed into a corner. Good. I can see his regime crumbling much quicker than we expect. Days and weeks. My worry is that he will fear he has nothing personally to lose from escalating further in unpredictable, non-rationale ways.