Future UK Combat Aircraft (Project Tempest)

[SW1]

Bae know how much each a/c rolling off there final assembly line costs them. No on but no one who is supplier of components to a FAL is gonna tell them what there cost price is, that’s why OEMs have should cost analysis of suppliers and target prices for components.

[Jensy]

References to Tempest (still also called FCAS*) in the Defence Equipment Plan and the National Audit Office's companion documents released today (links below):

In the Defence Equipment Plan, it is simply noted that and additional sum of "over £1 billion" is to be contributed to the programme which wasn't included in 2020 costings.

However, in the NAO report:

the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a replacement for the Typhoon which was first announced in 2018. The Plan now includes £8.65 billion to acquire a new aircraft. We discuss FCAS further in Part Two

Before anyone gets too excited. Going to 'Part Two':

Financial risks to delivering projects

2.7 Some project teams have identified a range of costs not currently included in the Plan which could result in £3.0 billion of financial risk if the Department fails to make changes to time, cost or performance. The Department plans to keep the balance between cost, capability and the delivery timetable under review as these programmes develop full business cases. For example, the budget provided for the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is considerably less than the project team’s estimate of the cost needed over the next 10 years to deliver current plans, based on the assumptions in its 2021 Outline Business Case (Figure 5). The affordability of the Department’s plans will depend on the extent it is able to share development costs with international partners.

Even if we were to expect a 50% of the programme to be picked up by our Tempest partners, those sums seem modest to 2031, assuming a 2035 IOC.

Full abstract on Tempest/FCAS and some Turbosquid artwork:

FCAS is a UK-led international programme to replace the capability provided by the Typhoon jet from the mid-2030s. It will ultimately be capable of air-to-air and ground-attack missions, potentially with a mix of crewed and uncrewed aircraft. The programme team recognises this is a “highly aggressive” timetable and will require the Ministry of Defence (the Department) and industry to work in a fundamentally different way to design, test and build the aircraft.

FCAS is the largest non-nuclear project in the Department’s Equipment Plan, with a budget of £8.65 billion over 10 years to design the aircraft at the heart of the ‘system’ (in addition to existing funding to develop related technology). However, based on existing assumptions about schedule, capability and international partners, the programme’s initial cost modelling, indicated the UK would need to spend between £10 billion and £17 billion over the period 2021 to 2031, suggesting it could be underfunded by as much as £8.35 billion.
The project team submitted a bid of £1.65 billion for 2021-22 to 2024-25 to the 2020 Spending Review process which was already lower than it had concluded was needed, based on the understanding at the time of the delivery timetable and expected number of international partners. However, following the Spending Review, the Department set a budget of £1.2 billion. This may mean that technology will be less mature than planned at key decision points, which in turn could significantly increase the capability risks to the programme. It would also limit the ability of the Department and industry to transform their ways of working through adopting modern design techniques: without this transformation the costs in later years will be much higher.

In March 2021, just after the project team submitted its Outline Business Case, the Department set a budget of a further £7.45 billion for the period April 2026 to March 2031. This was considerably less than the cost estimate based on the assumptions made at the time and set out in the Outline Business Case.

The programme’s scope and costs are highly dependent on the number of international partners who participate in the programme in future and the level of financial contribution they make. The project team has undertaken to review options for delivering the programme in light of the reduced funding ahead of the next business case, which is expected in 2024.

Landing Pages:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -plan-2021
https://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-equip ... 1-to-2031/

Direct link to PDFs:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... n_2021.pdf
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploa ... 1-2031.pdf

*P.S: In addition to the confusion of FCAS being used by both the non-French parts of SCAF, and it being historically the replacement for FOAS, the MOD seems to now be referring to 'FC/ASW' as simply 'FCASW' no.

[motiv]

I presume we're going to see an uplift in military budgets due to the Ukraine/Russian conflict. So if Tempest was under funded before, I'm also presuming it won't be for much longer.

[Jdam]

We are not going to see any change in budget.

[Timmymagic]

We are not going to see any change in budget.

I think all bets are off on that front now...

[dmereifield]

We are not going to see any change in budget.

I think all bets are off on that front now...

If HMG is serious about a meaningful increase in defence capabilities/capacity, we'll see an announcement of increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP (phased in over say 5 years).

Any plans for cuts will immediately be cancelled, and acquisition plans sped up.

Will it happen? Not sure. I'd say we might more likely see cuts to the Army binned off and another dolop of cash given to the MoD.

[Jdam]

I don't know what is the best thread for this but the budget is only a 1/3 of the problem. We also need better management from the Government and contractors to delivery on time/on budget.

[matt00773]

I presume we're going to see an uplift in military budgets due to the Ukraine/Russian conflict. So if Tempest was under funded before, I'm also presuming it won't be for much longer.

There are two things I'll say to this given where we are at the moment:

- Firstly, the money provided for the tempest programme has been appropriate and even generous from my view. We have to remember its currently focussed on developing enabling technologies and not the actual fighter itself. The partnerships with Japan, Sweden, and Italy mean there's a lot more money in the programme than just UK. The two side projects with Japan are especially advantageous.

- Secondly, there's no urgency in getting a next gen fighter given what I've seen of the Uk/Ru conflict thus far. As I type this it's day four of the conflict an Russia hasn't even obtained control of the skies yet - with all their supposed high tech fighters and pilot prowess. There are still Ukrainian SU27s operating and shooting down SU35s and such. Ukrainian SAMs are also having great success against Russian jets. The truth is that everything Russia has produced over the last 20 years has been a sleight evolution of the SU27 and just dressed up to look modern. There's no hope they could engage with Typhoon and F35s and succeed - it would be one-sided.

[~UNiOnJaCk~]

If Russia loses this war, as we all hope it will do - and fast, the worst thing we in the UK can do (and the West more generally) is to look at the performance of the Russian military and decide that we simply overestimated the threat.

We cannot allow a Russian defeat to lull us back into a false sense of security. We must not underestimate them, regardless of the outcome. Already I see the creep of overconfidence seeping back into the Western rhetoric, it is imperative this is avoided.

Regardless of the outcome, and of the minutiae of the performance of the Russian Armed Forces (or potential lack thereof), these events should leave us in absolutely no doubt that the peace dividend is well and truly over - the illusion is shattered. This should have been obvious to us years ago, but now, surely, there can no longer be any hiding from it.

We have been cashing in on the peace dividend for far too long, it has to stop. An environment of conventional, hard power deterrence needs to return to the West, the UK included. Even Germany at last appears to have got the message - though much too late.

And make no mistake, if you think we are seeing the Russian military at full tilt here, you are very wrong. Despite any inadequacies it has displayed so far, it's equally obvious that it has been pulling its punches, heavily so in many respects. Moreover, they will learn from this.

The last thing we need to do is watch Russia potentially lose this war and assume the threat has gone away and that we can return to a status quo of ambivalence towards hard power and deterrence. History will judge us for our response to our own security deficiencies in the wake of these events, let's hope we heed this wake up call and pass the test.

[inch]

Not right thread but wonder if their going to be a big sale on NLAW ?

[ArmChairCivvy]

Already I see the creep of overconfidence seeping back into the Western rhetoric, it is imperative this is avoided.

You are absolutely right; we are undergunned in so many areas, so where ever we have an advantage, we should press on... Tempest being a timely endeavour, as for now the RAF is in good shape (could add a few Meteors!)
- losing the war is unlikely; the cost will be a nasty surprise to Putin
- Russian sources say he has given himself two weeks to get to a position from which he can dictate terms
... another surprise coming there: it won't just be about who gets what patch of land... no wonder he is talking nukes now. Madman theory applied, but that if anything can throw up further surprises

[matt00773]

The Fumio Kishida government in Japan has confirmed that Tokyo will continue working with the United Kingdom on a Joint New Air-to-Air Missile (JNAAM) in the fiscal year 2022.

https://eurasiantimes.com/uk-japan-to-c ... aam-tokyo/

[dmereifield]

Any thoughts on Poland joining Tempest? With their increase in defence sepnding to 3% they might have a few quid available. Would they need/want to? Would it be beneficial for the UK?

[SD67]

I’d like to see us collaborating with a poland in the land domain - they have the largest armoured vehicle fleet in europe and a low cost industrial base. Aircraft Im not so sure

[motiv]

These two are at it like a married couple.

I can only presume, whatever is finally made, will be late and very expensive.

Good news for Tempest as it will probably mean it can clean up in the Export market within Europe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... irbus-spat

Dassault Aviation SA threatened to pull out of an alliance with Airbus SE to develop a future European fighter jet, in an escalation of the drawn out dispute between the two defense contractors over leadership of the project.

Talks between the French company and the German and Spanish arms of Airbus have reached an impasse and an agreement on moving to the next phase still hasn’t been signed, Dassault Chief Executive Officer Eric Trappier said at a press conference outside Paris on Friday.

[Lord Jim]

France left the Eurofighter programme for similar reasons. Dassault doesn't play well with others, ever.

[Lord Jim]

On the aviation front Poland is firmly in the US camp with the purchase of the F-35 and the upgrade of the F-16 fleet to the F-16V. On the land front there recent large purchase of M1A2Cs and their other indigenous AFV programmes would seem to make collaboration more difficult. Mind you using the Challenger 3 turret on its Leopard 2 rather than the slowly progressing Leopard 2PL programme could be interesting. They also have an interesting IFV under development.

[Cooper]

France left the Eurofighter programme for similar reasons. Dassault doesn't play well with others, ever.

Perhaps Dassault now think that with the increases in the French defence budget that Macron has announced, they may no longer need German money to finance the project.

[ArmChairCivvy]

These two are at it like a married couple.

I can only presume, whatever is finally made, will be late and very expensive.

Good news for Tempest as it will probably mean it can clean up in the Export market within Europe.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... irbus-spat

Dassault Aviation SA threatened to pull out of an alliance with Airbus SE to develop a future European fighter jet, in an escalation of the drawn out dispute between the two defense contractors over leadership of the project.

Talks between the French company and the German and Spanish arms of Airbus have reached an impasse and an agreement on moving to the next phase still hasn’t been signed, Dassault Chief Executive Officer Eric Trappier said at a press conference outside Paris on Friday.

The broth is already about to boil over; add some F-35s for Germany into it (emoji here) and see what then happens

[motiv]

Some more information here
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-03-04/
https://eurasiantimes.com/rafale-typhoo ... t-program/
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/da ... 94.article

Dassault Chief Executive Officer Eric Trappier said at a press conference in Paris recently that talks between the French company and Airbus’ German and Spanish arms have come to a halt and that an agreement on moving to the next phase is yet to be signed.

[inch]

I think this is all just positioning and posturing to the last minute ,then hey presto news flash France and Germany have come to a agreement bla bla ,it's business and how things get done ,,if I'm wrong I'll hold up my hand and say I got it wrong but the euro project especially after the Ukraine invasion will take precedence and will be made to be seen to work, especially after Germans throwing money at the problems now

[TheLoneRanger]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 090271.ece

France and India to develop a 125KN for the Indian AMCA - with this tie up - the French can get India to fund a large portion of the development of the engine for IP it also can own.

Is this a precursor to a bust-up between France and Germany on FCAS ? And the associated Safran-MTU partnership for the development of the engine for FCAS ?

(maybe i am reading too much into it ! )

[ArmChairCivvy]

125KN

Do we know how this compares to the one we are co-operating about (or supplying to?) with Japan?

[SW1]

125kn is that Dry or wet thrust?

[matt00773]

125KN

Do we know how this compares to the one we are co-operating about (or supplying to?) with Japan?

The approach to Tempest is to develop new technologies and fabrication approaches for each of the jet components. I doubt they have a target in mind for such a thing as maximum thrust at this time - that will come later. For reference the Typhoon is 60kN dry and 90kN wet. I have no doubt RR in alliance with Japan will be able to develop a next gen engine whatever the capabilities need to be. I'm not sure about India's credentials on the jet engine side of things though.

Just on the Dassault / Airbus dispute, the CEO of Dassault seems to think co-partnering is completely off the table - they just want other people's money. Given Germany's new approach to military spending and exporting, I wonder if the UK can bring them into the game with Tempest?