The war in Ukraine

[SW1]

It would seem Late be the hour



Grim

[Phil Sayers]

One thing I think we should give serious consideration to doing is declassifying aspects of intelligence assessments made with regards to the Moscow Apartment bombings which first brought Putin to power and paved the way for the Second Chechen War.

I have no idea what those assessments would conclude in terms of responsibility for the atrocities (in which several hundred people were killed) but I am sure they would contain numerous excruciatingly embarrassing details for the Kremlin. Could even bring Putin's government down. For example an FSB team was actually arrested by local police while planting a bomb which was then passed off as a training exercise....

[Phil Sayers]

Putin has just confirmed that his recognition of the 'independence' of Donetsk and Luhansk encompasses the whole provinces rather than just the parts controlled by Russian proxies and Russian forces. If he intends to make that reality (hint - he does) it will require a lot of shooting. In fact the shooting has already started with artillery fire raining down on Ukrainian positions and a power station. Russia have also just announced the evacuation of their embassy. This will likely escalate further tonight.

[ArmChairCivvy]

And the Norgies Dublin (was a bigger settlement than any in their 'old' country, i.e. Norway).

But as for the topic: a bad move from Putin (of course we do not know about the next moves)
- those places are the equivalent of the Rus(t) Belt in the US; an economic mill stone around the neck
- if the line of contact will not change, nothing is gained, BUT:
- the TV-president asked (in Munich) for the sanctions to be started... to no avail. Now they are coming. And the gas pipeline to China (OK, there is already one) is five years away, and will then carry only a fifth of what goes to the West (with no Nordstream2 counted in)

Minsk2 gave the two 'statelets' a veto in Ukraine's constitutional matters (like NATO) and if they are not part of Ukraine anymore... hey-ho
- of course , Ukraine has not had control of those borders since 2014, so nothing lost there

Whiff of Munich... nah. It was Ethiopia attacking Italian forces in a never-heard-of oasis and the Finns shelling Russian forces with their (non-existent) artillery. That's where we have got back to

[ArmChairCivvy]

- if the line of contact will not change, nothing is gained, BUT:

I had not seen Phil Sayers comment (above mine) so the if should read 'IF'

[ArmChairCivvy]

Plus - Russia has air superiority and Ukraine has no air or missile defences.
This is from an informed source, upthread; Ukraine did provide modifications to Georgia's BUK missiles... and they were effective. So surely Ukraine has some for their own use, too?

[SW1]

And the Norgies Dublin (was a bigger settlement than any in their 'old' country, i.e. Norway).

But as for the topic: a bad move from Putin (of course we do not know about the next moves)
- those places are the equivalent of the Rus(t) Belt in the US; an economic mill stone around the neck
- if the line of contact will not change, nothing is gained, BUT:
- the TV-president asked (in Munich) for the sanctions to be started... to no avail. Now they are coming. And the gas pipeline to China (OK, there is already one) is five years away, and will then carry only a fifth of what goes to the West (with no Nordstream2 counted in)

Minsk2 gave the two 'statelets' a veto in Ukraine's constitutional matters (like NATO) and if they are not part of Ukraine anymore... hey-ho
- of course , Ukraine has not had control of those borders since 2014, so nothing lost there

Whiff of Munich... nah. It was Ethiopia attacking Italian forces in a never-heard-of oasis and the Finns shelling Russian forces with their (non-existent) artillery. That's where we have got back to

Feels a little like the Spanish civil war of the 1930s, though Russia has always claimed Ukraine as it’s own even when it’s people wanted something different and it’s been trying to manipulate their politics since the end of the Cold War. I don’t know where this ends in Ukraine but I have a feeling sooner or later we’re going to be tested on NATOs actual boundary like we haven’t for a long while hopefully the political strength will be there to stand firm.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Feels a little like the Spanish civil war of the 1930s, though Russia has always claimed Ukraine as it’s own even when it’s people wanted something different and it’s been trying to manipulate their politics since the end of the Cold War. I don’t know where this ends in Ukraine but I have a feeling sooner or later we’re going to be tested on NATOs actual boundary

I made that comment on Syria: testing the weapons and maximising rotations so that 'many' would have experience of 'action'.
- tried to copy a photo of dozens of Russian soldiers sleeping at a railway station, almost like a log jam in a river, each partly on top of the other... this will not be good 'news' on the home front. Someone might even remember how the Commander-in-Chief was nowhere to be seen when Kursk happened; as his is not happening that far from Kursk

[ArmChairCivvy]

Didn't we just do away with this capability (of ours)? From Breaking Defence
"The Airborne Reconnaissance Targeting & Exploitation Multi-Mission Intelligence System aircraft, known as ARTEMIS. (US Army)

WASHINGTON: As the world waits on Russia’s next move in its slow-rolling invasion of Ukraine, US military aircraft continue flights over Eastern Europe, searching for changes in Russia’s posture along Ukraine’s border that could give clues about its next moves.

Flying in the region among the US military’s submarine hunting planes and surveillance drones is a novel intelligence-gathering aircraft prototype known as ARTEMIS — a Bombardier Challenger 650 that’s been souped up with military-grade sensors for tracking ground troops, flown on behalf of the US Army by defense contractor Leidos.

ARTEMIS, which stands for Airborne Reconnaissance and Target Exploitation Multi-Mission System, has been conducting operations over Eastern Europe since the beginning of the month, logging 14 sorties between Feb. 1 until Feb. 21, according to Amelia Smith, a hobbyist plane-spotter who has been using flight data to track ISR missions over Europe."

It is labelled as a 'prototype' drafted into real action.

[SW1]

Didn't we just do away with this capability (of ours)? From Breaking Defence
"The Airborne Reconnaissance Targeting & Exploitation Multi-Mission Intelligence System aircraft, known as ARTEMIS. (US Army)

WASHINGTON: As the world waits on Russia’s next move in its slow-rolling invasion of Ukraine, US military aircraft continue flights over Eastern Europe, searching for changes in Russia’s posture along Ukraine’s border that could give clues about its next moves.

Flying in the region among the US military’s submarine hunting planes and surveillance drones is a novel intelligence-gathering aircraft prototype known as ARTEMIS — a Bombardier Challenger 650 that’s been souped up with military-grade sensors for tracking ground troops, flown on behalf of the US Army by defense contractor Leidos.

ARTEMIS, which stands for Airborne Reconnaissance and Target Exploitation Multi-Mission System, has been conducting operations over Eastern Europe since the beginning of the month, logging 14 sorties between Feb. 1 until Feb. 21, according to Amelia Smith, a hobbyist plane-spotter who has been using flight data to track ISR missions over Europe."

It is labelled as a 'prototype' drafted into real action.

ARTEMIS has been very active this past month along the Russian border. Yep sure in the month prior to retire Sentinel flew a years worth of nato mission it is usually assigned. The US army Hades program are moving into the biz jet standoff space in a big way for targeting for its long range missiles…

https://www.l3harris.com/newsroom/edito ... -and-hades

[SW1]

[Cooper]

Blah,blah...blah fucking blah.

Meanwhile Putin pisses himself laughing, wondering how the Soviet Union ever fell to such a bunch of limp wristed Western sissies.

The only thing he understands is bombs & bullets and until they start coming his way, he'll continue as he pleases.

..and in the background, China is watching and thinking that Taiwan is there for the taking.

[ArmChairCivvy]

On Monday Putin effectively nullified the increasingly defunct Minsk accords ... after months of saying they should be rejuvenated
- the oligarchs must love him: Moscow bourse down by 40% in an hour. Howabout their 'rainy day' funds, built abroad through successive waves of capital flight - are they safe?

[SW1]

That will have instil some phone calls in hqs across the land

[SW1]

[Lord Jim]

The only way sanctions are to have any meaningful effect is to take them to levels that would isolate Russia as a whole from the economies of the West and its allies for an indefinite period, as well as sanctions by the same countries on any nation that still maintains economic and financial ties with Russia. This would immediately form a Second Cold War with Russia, China and their allies on one side and the West and its allies on the other. It will also require Countries to increase defence spending to levels that are greater then they were prior to the end of the First Cold War, as both the capabilities and capacity of NATO countries and its allies will need to be increased rapidly. This will cause a downward step change in many economies that will have an even greater effect if levels of defence spending are maintained at the expense of other areas.

The alternative is to really do nothing other than headline sanctions that have little or no real effect. What do people think is most likely?

[TheLoneRanger]

A sad day today for sure - I am however suprised how poorly prepared Ukraine is - the sight of helicopters having so much freedom to operate over Ukraines airspace is shocking - fast jets i get ... but helicopters ? Surely they mush have stocks of manpads?(obviously not).

Russia is hoping a shock and awe will force ukraine into surrender - will ukraine oblige them .. or will they fight it out in a ground war.

Ukraine with a population of over 40million should have stronger defences then it seems they have - they have had time to prepare - years.

Not sure what else to say right now - it is too shocking...

[SW1]

I think you need to remember that Ukraine is a vast vast country we probably aren’t seeing the full picture I’m sure there fighting hard.

It is so terribly sad to see so many frightened families who ask for none of it.


It appears america is moving armoured brigade combat team into Germany

[Phil Sayers]

Surely they mush have stocks of manpads?(obviously not).

The Baltic States have sent them some Stingers but they don't hold large stocks so couldn't send many. Also hardly any time to train with them before the invasion started.

[wargame_insomniac]

A sad day today for sure - I am however suprised how poorly prepared Ukraine is - the sight of helicopters having so much freedom to operate over Ukraines airspace is shocking - fast jets i get ... but helicopters ? Surely they mush have stocks of manpads?(obviously not).

Russia is hoping a shock and awe will force ukraine into surrender - will ukraine oblige them .. or will they fight it out in a ground war.

Ukraine with a population of over 40million should have stronger defences then it seems they have - they have had time to prepare - years.

Not sure what else to say right now - it is too shocking...

My one surprise is that Ukraine did nt call up their reservists sooner in January to get them to start refreshing their training. I am guessing that they did nt want to adversely affect the Ukranian economy by pulling people from their day jobs. I fear they might regret that delay in preparing.

[Lord Jim]

If Russia has gained air superiority the Ukrainian Army is going to be in a real bad situation, finding itself unable to manoeuvre during teh day and being restricted at night. This means it will be down to individual units to try to hold back teh Russian Army. I would say Ukraine's only hope is to turn the conflict into a drawn out affair as well as the West and its Allies imposing absolute sanctions on Russia like halting all oil and gas imports and seizing all Russian assets held in western countries both nations and personal. We may not be willing to engage Russia with boots on the ground but a long term economic war needs to start now with countries being willing to accept the negative effects this will have on their economies.

[SW1]

[Dahedd]

Bloody Europe. It's been 8 years since they invaded Ukraine the first time and they've elected to remain over the barrel.

The transition to alternative energy can't come quick enough for me.

[SKB]

The UK only gets 3% of its oil and gas from Russia according to HM Government....

[SW1]

Seems india not onboard either