There is a very good chance that Italy will leave Tempest - there has been as you said enough forshadowing on this with both the treaty with France and comments, but the Tempest programme will need to carry on without Italy and both BAe and RAF will simply need to reduce the scope of what is possible to ensure enough of the core programme succeeds.Gtal wrote: ↑25 Dec 2021, 07:33 Hilarious. Italy and the UK are literally making contradictory public statements.
Where are the articles à la "Tempest future in doubt..." ?
You know.. like those around FCAS? Those didn't even have any factual substance, while here we have explicit fundamental disagreement about what the goal of this cooperation is to be!
And of course Italy just made up with France and signed a major treaty with them.
I'd be not at all surprised to see Italy drop out of Tempest at some point and maybe do some sort of cross-program deal with Germany and France actually.
Playing an enhanced role in the EU has so much more potential side benefits and would be almost a natural fit as the 3rd largest country now and one of the oldest members too..
Germany/France/Spain and possibly Italy(herein referred to as EU) will want to make another "political" statement via the development of FCAS but we all know how the last programme(Eurofighter) went when they tried that and it would be best to "leave them to it". Just look at the "Eurodrone" project which looks like another EU orgin lovefest orgy with no pratical meaningful outcomes.
It is important to the UK Aerospace industry that Tempest succeeds and if that means some of the system of systems items are descoped so that the engine and airframe can be developed with avionics that are 5Gen++ rather than 6th gen - then so be it. The rate of technological advancement is so fast that by the time the avionics become an issue interms of military capability - BAe will be able to do it alone themselves anyway.
The Tempest programme will need to learn to pragmmatic and accept that there are different intrepreations of what their 6th Gen programme looks like based on the degree of resources available. If they are not - and they stick to their puristic approach of the project scope - then the politicans will simply cancel the entire programme as it will be come unaffordable. BAe will need to have their common sense hats on if it wants to try and stay in the fighter development space. BAe already messed up by not developing a replacement for the Hawk on commerical grounds ...
The Tempest programme has signed some deals with Japan both on the radar development(Jaguar) and engine development, and now it seems parts of the airframe(engine inlets) that we can hedge against Italy if we need to.
( and i am privately hoping that AUKUS means that the Aussies will look to join our Tempest programme aswell esp since they are on the F35 programme aswell, so they will have similar requirements and the overlap with Japan which is becoming a more significant security partner in the region for Australia aswell. Having a Tempest ecosysm in that part of the world would be damn useful !!! ).
And - if the Tempest falls apart/gets cancelled - then the UK should simply buy off the shelf from the USA their 6th gen platform as the USA will procure enough units of their 6th gen fighter to make it economically viable and have in place a mature mid-life upgrade rather that the EU approach where they will not buy enough units of a platform to make it economically viable or sustainable over the life of the platform. Just look at the fiasco that is the various upgrade programmes for the Eurofighter Typhoon to know the EU approach is always the worst approach.