F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

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dmereifield
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by dmereifield »

Scimitar54 wrote:The Second (Operational) Squadron; 809NAS scheduled to stand up during 2023. Beyond that, it seems rather speculative. :mrgreen:
Thanks, didn't realise we had to wait that long for the 2nd....

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

dmereifield wrote:Thanks, didn't realise we had to wait that long for the 2nd....
Programatically it's longer than that when you add in aircraft availability.

By the end of 2025 we'll have 45 'Combat Capable' F-35B and 3 Test F-35B at Edwards AFB.

But....and its a big but...13 of those will only have been delivered during 2023-25 (with practically all arriving in the last 15 months). This will be the same time frame when a number of our earlier F-35B will need to enter upgrade works to become Block IV capable and received the EOTS/DASS upgrade. The scope of those upgrade works will depend on the age of the aircraft and which production lot it came from. Its likely that 4-5 of the oldest UK Combat Capable Aircraft (and potentially all 3 of the ITF aircraft if we decide to Block IV them) will need substantial works on them, with c25 UK a/c needing upgrades in total, ranging from substantial to software upgrades done during normal maintenance (the EOTS/DASS is hardware and software but should be plug and play in normal deep level maintenance). All of these deliveries and upgrade works will mean a lot of juggling of aircraft and availability.

If I was a betting man I would say that 2027 is when we can expect the F-35 force to be fully Block IV'd to a single fleet wide standard (with the possible exception of BK-03, the earliest UK combat capable jet due to huge cost and the 3 ITF a/c), with 809 Sqn and 617 Sqn stood up with 12 a/c each, 207 Sqn (the OCU) operating with at least 9 a/c. This date also ties in with when Meteor, Spear and Asraam CSP are integrated and arrive in operational numbers. In many ways that would be when we can regard the F-35 as 'fully combat capable' (although we still have a lot of weaponry gaps...which I've moaned about previously). There is a possibility that if the mooted additional F-35B are ordered (which would hopefully be delivered in 2026 onwards) we arrive at that position a few months earlier, but it wouldn't shift that much beyond that.

If we did order another 12+ a/c we would probably find that standing up a 3rd Operational squadron would be far quicker. If we ordered just over 70 a/c in total (75 inc. the ITF aircraft would be perfect) we could find that we could stand up a 4th Operational Sqn by 2030 (it would, however, be tight though, and require an acceptance that 1 or 2 of the Operational Sqn's didn't usually have all 12 aircraft). That would mean 17(TES) Sqn with 3 a/c, 207 Sqn (the OCU) with 9 a/c, 617 and 809 + 2 additional operational squadrons with c48 a/c and 15 a/c rotating through maintenance etc. If 2 of the Operational Sqn's normally operated with 9 a/c you could probably sustain that, and have the potential to surge the fleet to 4 x 12 Operational Sqn aircraft for limited periods. From there to get 5 Operational Squadrons (2 of 12 a/c, 3 of 9 a/c normally) you'd probably have to go into the mid 90's as 207 Sqn would need beefing up as well to train the additional personnel. And lets be honest that will never happen....

Its when you look at this like this that you realise that 36 F-35B on a QE Class will probably be done once for tests and for show (like when the Marine Nationale put 30+ Rafale on CdG). But the norm will be at most a 24 aircraft, 2 Sqn load on a single QE Class, with another Sqn available for land use or in an extreme emergency put on the 2nd carrier.

dmereifield
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by dmereifield »

^^very informative, thanks for explaining

Ron5
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

Lockheed Martin contractually commits to reduce F-35A running costs to $30k an hour in two years. Good news.

Timmymagic
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

Ron5 wrote:Lockheed Martin contractually commits to reduce F-35A running costs to $30k an hour in two years. Good news.
And presumably that will mean they're still on track for $25k in 2025 as well, which many thought they'd never reach.

topman
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by topman »

How much an hour is it now?

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

topman wrote:How much an hour is it now?
Between $33k and $38k depending on what time this year you asked...some confusion gets dropped in when people try and extrapolate from 2012 dollars which was when predictions were made for this stage of the programme (suspect they do that because it generates a lower price). General consensus is that at present its roughly similar to the F-15 variants in service. If they get it down to $30k, which they contractually committed to (the $25k in 2025 is a company goal), it will be pretty much the same as the latest F-15EX promised cost per flight hour, so not bad going. Of course the F-35B and F-35C will cost more due to their smaller production volumes and increased complexity, but the good news appears to be that its not by a colossal amount.

The biggest issue with reducing the per hour cost appears to be the engine side of things...Lockheed, BAE etc are reporting big falls in their sustainment costs...Pratt and Whitney not so much. I suspect the regret for not going ahead with the GE/RR F-136 will grow and grow over the years as competition does tend to keep them more honest...

Also you have to wonder if the drive to get every aircraft to the same standard (Block IV), or in the USAF/USMC's case Block IV and a singular lower 'training' standard, will have some major effect on costs as the 'fleets within fleets' get eliminated. The USMC appears to be heading that way. Although the action that they're going to take on their considerable numbers of earlier production lot aircraft is still a little unclear (retirement or get them to 3F standard and leave it there). The USAF appears to be looking to do the same with a large number of aircraft assigned to 'training' and aggressor duties. I would have thought that if they can get them to 3F standard they'd be pretty good as a CONUS only fighter aircraft.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

topman wrote:How much an hour is it now?
1. the $30k in 2023 target is 10% less than 2020 and over 40% reduction in the past 5 years.

2. Less than Typhoon.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

Ron5 wrote:2. Less than Typhoon.
That may have been true in the past, but Project TyTAN has been underway in the UK for a few years now and is meeting its targets on cost per hour. One of the goals is to get the cost per hour equivalent to a late model F-16 which is c$20k per flight hour. If they meet it (and they might be there already or close) means they'll be below the $25k aim for F-35.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

Timmymagic wrote:
Ron5 wrote:2. Less than Typhoon.
That may have been true in the past, but Project TyTAN has been underway in the UK for a few years now and is meeting its targets on cost per hour. One of the goals is to get the cost per hour equivalent to a late model F-16 which is c$20k per flight hour. If they meet it (and they might be there already or close) means they'll be below the $25k aim for F-35.
I should add, to be fair, that comparing Cost per Flight Hour across different air forces and types is usually an exercise in folly unless you know the exact methodology they're using. All we can know for sure is that both F-35 and Typhoon's cost per hour (for the UK at least) appear to be dropping quite significantly, to the users satisfaction.

Ron5
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

Good comment. Like comparing ship building costs, comparing flying cost hours is a frikkin rats nest.

For what it is worth, I believe the Lockheed definition is just the cost of maintenance per flying hour and doesn't include such niceties as fuel etc.

I'd also guess that with flying hours diminishing due to the increase in synthetic training, maintenance cost per hour will increase. Numerators and denominators etc.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

Ron5 wrote:For what it is worth, I believe the Lockheed definition is just the cost of maintenance per flying hour and doesn't include such niceties as fuel etc.

I'd also guess that with flying hours diminishing due to the increase in synthetic training, maintenance cost per hour will increase. Numerators and denominators etc.
Exactly, and then there is the value add side of things which no-one can really put a price on (apart from arms manufacturers in adverts). With more synthetic training you might do less hours, but the hours that you do do in the air might be far more productive and complex.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by SW1 »

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... ile-types/

MBDA and BAE Systems have secured additional funding from the British and Italian governments to complete integration of key weapon systems destined to add capability to their F-35 combat jet fleets, the companies announced Sept 17.

The Royal Air Force has selected the Spear and Meteor weapons for fitting to their F-35 fleet, while the Italian involvement relates only to the air-to-air weapon. That could change, though, as the Italians have shown interest in the Spear weapon, said industry officials.
The amount of the investment is not known, but it is thought to be in the region of $400 million. The British are providing the bulk of the money.

The date for introduction of the missiles on the F-35 remains under discussion, but the RAF’s ambition is to have the weapons available by the end of 2024.

Earlier this year British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told a parliamentary Defence Committee that he would be reluctant to buy further F-35s until an issue over pushing European weapons back in the integration queue was resolved.
“It’s important that we continue the planned integration of Meteor on the F-35, I don’t want to be put to the back of the queue for that

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

SW1 wrote:https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... ile-types/

MBDA and BAE Systems have secured additional funding from the British and Italian governments to complete integration of key weapon systems destined to add capability to their F-35 combat jet fleets, the companies announced Sept 17.

The Royal Air Force has selected the Spear and Meteor weapons for fitting to their F-35 fleet, while the Italian involvement relates only to the air-to-air weapon. That could change, though, as the Italians have shown interest in the Spear weapon, said industry officials.
The amount of the investment is not known, but it is thought to be in the region of $400 million. The British are providing the bulk of the money.

The date for introduction of the missiles on the F-35 remains under discussion, but the RAF’s ambition is to have the weapons available by the end of 2024.

Earlier this year British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told a parliamentary Defence Committee that he would be reluctant to buy further F-35s until an issue over pushing European weapons back in the integration queue was resolved.
“It’s important that we continue the planned integration of Meteor on the F-35, I don’t want to be put to the back of the queue for that
Sounds like the queue was in the UK Treasury and not the US F-35 project office :D

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by SW1 »

Ron5 wrote:
SW1 wrote:https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... ile-types/

MBDA and BAE Systems have secured additional funding from the British and Italian governments to complete integration of key weapon systems destined to add capability to their F-35 combat jet fleets, the companies announced Sept 17.

The Royal Air Force has selected the Spear and Meteor weapons for fitting to their F-35 fleet, while the Italian involvement relates only to the air-to-air weapon. That could change, though, as the Italians have shown interest in the Spear weapon, said industry officials.
The amount of the investment is not known, but it is thought to be in the region of $400 million. The British are providing the bulk of the money.

The date for introduction of the missiles on the F-35 remains under discussion, but the RAF’s ambition is to have the weapons available by the end of 2024.

Earlier this year British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told a parliamentary Defence Committee that he would be reluctant to buy further F-35s until an issue over pushing European weapons back in the integration queue was resolved.
“It’s important that we continue the planned integration of Meteor on the F-35, I don’t want to be put to the back of the queue for that
Sounds like the queue was in the UK Treasury and not the US F-35 project office :D
Think it’s more in the us Congress

Jdam
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Jdam »

A bit more

https://www.baesystems.com/en/article/f ... 964710d860

This seems to be for all of the Spear 3 work and the remaining work required for Meteor.
The funding will also see the remainder of the integration of MBDA’s Meteor beyond visual range air-to-air missile completed on both the F-35A and F-35B jets for the UK and Italian armed forces.
I think that is the first confirmation of the A model getting Meteor. (maybe that what the Italian's are paying for)

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

SW1 wrote:
Ron5 wrote:
SW1 wrote:https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... ile-types/

MBDA and BAE Systems have secured additional funding from the British and Italian governments to complete integration of key weapon systems destined to add capability to their F-35 combat jet fleets, the companies announced Sept 17.

The Royal Air Force has selected the Spear and Meteor weapons for fitting to their F-35 fleet, while the Italian involvement relates only to the air-to-air weapon. That could change, though, as the Italians have shown interest in the Spear weapon, said industry officials.
The amount of the investment is not known, but it is thought to be in the region of $400 million. The British are providing the bulk of the money.

The date for introduction of the missiles on the F-35 remains under discussion, but the RAF’s ambition is to have the weapons available by the end of 2024.

Earlier this year British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told a parliamentary Defence Committee that he would be reluctant to buy further F-35s until an issue over pushing European weapons back in the integration queue was resolved.
“It’s important that we continue the planned integration of Meteor on the F-35, I don’t want to be put to the back of the queue for that
Sounds like the queue was in the UK Treasury and not the US F-35 project office :D
Think it’s more in the us Congress
Bollox.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

Ron5 wrote:Bollox.
Actually I think its right, this is not the first big integration contract the UK has anounced funding for and appears to be aimed mainly at Spear, F-35A integration for Meteor (which can't be a large amount at all) and a small amount for the remainder of the Meteor work that was already funded with a tonne of cash some time ago. That original funding for Meteor, both to MBDA and to LM was some time ago and preceded the Defence Secretary's remarks by a fair distance. We've not even seen an F-35 fly with a test article yet, let alone a drop test or firing.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

Timmymagic wrote:
Ron5 wrote:Bollox.
Actually I think its right, this is not the first big integration contract the UK has anounced funding for and appears to be aimed mainly at Spear, F-35A integration for Meteor (which can't be a large amount at all) and a small amount for the remainder of the Meteor work that was already funded with a tonne of cash some time ago. That original funding for Meteor, both to MBDA and to LM was some time ago and preceded the Defence Secretary's remarks by a fair distance. We've not even seen an F-35 fly with a test article yet, let alone a drop test or firing.
I don't understand this comment.

The news story was that funding was finally supplied to Bae, MBDA, & LM to complete the integration.

There is no factual reason to believe the congress is delaying anything. That's just bullshit. If you remember, Wallace hinted at a possible issue and then met with LM. Not anyone from congress.

My guess is that the LM folks told him that they're waiting on funding from Italy & the UK. And in both places, severe government financial difficulties are causing their Treasuries to drag their feet on funding requests. In the UK, defense takes the major hit when cash is in short supply. You may have noticed, other immediate UK defense funding requests have been put on the back burner and plans to decommission kit have been accelerated.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by bobp »

New F35 on PWLS.....


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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Ron5 »

bobp wrote:New F35 on PWLS.....
Airfix needs to pull its bloody finger out and release a 1/350 QE carrier.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

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bobp
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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by bobp »

Ron5 wrote:Airfix needs to pull its bloody finger out and release a 1/350 QE carrier.
Would be nice to see a Wildcat Helicopter kit also.

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Scimitar54 »

Ron5 wrote:
[quote][Airfix needs to pull its bloody finger out and release a 1/350 QE carrier/quote]

Maybe making a Bob or two, in the process ? :mrgreen:

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Re: F-35B Lightning (RAF & RN)

Post by Timmymagic »

Ron5 wrote:Airfix needs to pull its bloody finger out and release a 1/350 QE carrier.
I'm not into modelling, but its weird that they made a one-off 6 years ago, have been inundated with demands for years for a kit..but have yet to produce one.

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