Eurofighter Typhoon (RAF)

[SD67]

IMHO we should order more Typhoons now, from a hot production line.
How to pay for them? If more funding is off the agenda, worst case I'd take it out of the Army. Hold off on AH64E for a few years, drop the SF Chinooks, make do with 620 Boxer. Just my take, will grab tin hat

[Jdam]

I don't think anyone would complain if we got more Typhoons but if more funds becomes available the question becomes could we make better use of them somewhere else?

Like getting our F-35 numbers up before Tempest comes along and gobbles up those procurement funds. (even tho I am loathed to give Lockheed a penny more till they get their software sorted out)

Question time for me:

Could the German Electronic Warfare version be an option, do we have anything that does that job right now? (I am assuming its something like the EF-18) It might be a good reason to buy Typhoons by possible introduction new abilities that cant be done by something else and it is not just more Typhoons.

Also is there any need for a bigger version of the Pave way 4? (1,000 lb for example)

[new guy]

IMHO we should order more Typhoons now, from a hot production line.
How to pay for them? If more funding is off the agenda, worst case I'd take it out of the Army. Hold off on AH64E for a few years, drop the SF Chinooks, make do with 620 Boxer. Just my take, will grab tin hat

AH64 has already happened. The chinooks are needed, and more boxers are far more desirable than any need for more typhoons.

[Ron5]

even tho I am loathed to give Lockheed a penny more till they get their software sorted out

I think you just jinxed Tempest

[Jdam]

Could the German Electronic Warfare version be an option, do we have anything that does that job right now? (I am assuming its something like the EF-18) It might be a good reason to buy Typhoons by possible introduction new abilities that cant be done by something else and it is not just more Typhoons.

Also is there any need for a bigger version of the Pave way 4? (1,000 lb for example)

Of course it will never happen....

But....the 2 seater ECR variant (that isn't being built) would have been ideal in a purchase of c24. It will have kept Warton going on production (minimising cost and risk in the transition to GCAP), would have been a huge capability boost for the RAF AND NATO reducing dependence on the US and their in demand fleet of EA-18G and would have put some funding into UK EW....which will be needed for GCAP as well. The 2 seater could have also operated very effectively with GCAP and F-35, in particular as a controller of CCA/Loyal Wingmen for many years...

As for a larger munition?

No point in getting a Paveway IV in 1,000lb size. We had that in Enhanced Paveway II and 2,000lb in Enhanced Paveway III. If we needed heavier munitions we either need it to be sovereign or cheap.

On the cheap side for me personally a purchase of 2,000 x 1,000lb JDAM/LJDAM makes a lot of sense. Dirt cheap, compatible with F-35B and Typhoon, massively increases RAF stocks for less than £100m.

But if it has to be sovereign it needs to be a cheap gliding munition like JDAM-ER, but made in the UK. The Ukrainian experience demonstrates how useful they are. We 'might' be getting an SDB1 capability with MRUSW (which is likely to be the Spear shape but just GPS/INS, and perhaps SAL, only) which closes some of the gap that we have with range/cost of munition. But a heavier munition would not go amiss...MBDA proposed SmartGlider Heavy in the 2,000lb ballpark, but it didn't look super cheap.

The ideal would be a JSOW sized LO shaped munition with Spear's modularity i.e. qualify an LO gliding shape (doesn't have to be super stealth) and have a range of payloads, guidance and potentially power all interchangeable. Then make them in numbers....All of our munitions are guided these days so that adds zero cost, a wing kit in addition is pennies, but massively increases survivability of the aircraft and munition. And we have to be aware of enemy AD intercepting munitions, so anything that makes them harder to hit by reducing their visibility is worth it. An LO outer shape, even if its just a 'shroud' that a standard bomb shape would sit within would make a lot of sense...

[Spitfire9]

How many more Typhoons are still to be delivered from the UK assembly line? Will there be a break if a KSA order is placed late this year?

[Jensy]

How many more Typhoons are still to be delivered from the UK assembly line? Will there be a break if a KSA order is placed late this year?

Deliveries started in August 2022 and reached the midpoint in the same month last year.

So it seems likely that assembly will be ending sometime in the next seven months.

https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/qa ... 29.article

With the upsurge in Typhoon orders hopefully the workforce at Warton will be kept busy with fuselage fabrication and we won't see substantial layoffs before a Saudi order (assuming they agree an order) is signed off.

Which in turn makes me curious if the multinational supply chain can still meet their schedule. Been a long time since a second order was proposed. Also not beyond the realms of possibility they might want the previously mooted 72, over 48. Though unlikely.

In an ideal world, we'd be placing own our order. Seeing as according to the DefSec, "the Peace Dividend is over".

[Spitfire9]

I am not optimistic about KSA placing a follow on order unless price is no barrier. Same thing for another RAF order. Why pay for 4G Typhoon when 5G F-35 is cheaper, especially if F-35A.

The peace dividend may be a thing of the past for the UK but that does not mean it is OK to spend extra funding for procurement badly. Better to buy more F-35 and put the money saved towards something else IMO.

[mrclark303]

I am not optimistic about KSA placing a follow on order unless price is no barrier. Same thing for another RAF order. Why pay for 4G Typhoon when 5G F-35 is cheaper, especially if F-35A.

The peace dividend may be a thing of the past for the UK but that does not mean it is OK to spend extra funding for procurement badly. Better to buy more F-35 and put the money saved towards something else IMO.

I would tend to agree, if the cash was there, I would buy 24 more Thypoon for the RAF, to replace the outgoing tranche 1 jets.

However, if forced to choose, I would spend the money on more F35B's, to get three Squadrons operational asap and bring all the tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons up to a common advanced standard with Radar 2, large panoramic displays, conformal fuel tanks etc.

Speed up development and fielding of Spear 3.

We then need to ensure the two fleets are well supported with good stocks of spares and weaponry.

The combat aircraft fleet is too small, that needs addressing, but in the meantime, we can increase the punch of what we have.

[sol]

Considering that the third squadron of F-35 is lacking some 400 millions to be fully funded, it is hard to see how RAF could afford to get one or two additional squadrons of Typhoons without significant increase in budget that will cover for required planes, crews and facilities. And with all personal issues, it is questionable could those one or two squadrons even be properly manned.

[Jensy]

I am not optimistic about KSA placing a follow on order unless price is no barrier. Same thing for another RAF order. Why pay for 4G Typhoon when 5G F-35 is cheaper, especially if F-35A.

The peace dividend may be a thing of the past for the UK but that does not mean it is OK to spend extra funding for procurement badly. Better to buy more F-35 and put the money saved towards something else IMO.

Unless F-35 is guaranteed to be integrated with UK specific weaponry by 2030 then I'm struggling to see the point of going beyond the planned 48 (now 47). The Block IV upgrade is not exactly going smoothly and has been pushed back to 2029.

Aircraft generations are great fun if you work in the marketing department of Lockheed Martin, however in practice they mean little beyond very broad categorisations of technology. It is unfortunate how much they've caught on with the Defence commentariat and those working in and around government.

The comparative level of stealth, for example, offered by: F-22, F-35, Su-57 and J-20 are so varied it would be mad to try and suggest some sort of parallel between their LO capabilities.

As for Saudi Arabia, I can't see them being offered F-35 for the foreseeable future. Which leaves Typhoon and Rafale as the best Western FJ options for them, and they operate one already.

[SD67]

I am not optimistic about KSA placing a follow on order unless price is no barrier. Same thing for another RAF order. Why pay for 4G Typhoon when 5G F-35 is cheaper, especially if F-35A.

The peace dividend may be a thing of the past for the UK but that does not mean it is OK to spend extra funding for procurement badly. Better to buy more F-35 and put the money saved towards something else IMO.

Saudi isn't going to be offered F-35 any time soon. They need to replace Tornado soon so they need something, hence why they've been talking to France.

Buying more F-35 for the UK makes little sense beyond the 74. Its doubtful that the entire fleet will be Block IV capable before 2032, which means that they will have the weapons capability of a Tranche 1 Typhoon, which everyone seems to think is inadequate for Typhoon but ok for F-35 for some reason....and if Tempest is due to arrive in 2035....

[Timmymagic]

https://www.baesystems.com/en/feature/n ... rst-flight

[SD67]

Sounds to me that worst case scenario Warton is going to become a support, subassembly, and upgrade business between now and the early 2030s. There's 63 fuselages to provide Spain / Quadriga plus 40 ECR2 upgrades (and more for KSA?). Also bear in mind Tempest is a revenue generating project. Warton's not going to close any time soon.

But the KSA order would be nice.

[SW1]

Warton are also assembling a couple tempest development test aircraft

[Jensy]

Warton are also assembling a couple tempest development test aircraft

Has it been officially stated that there's more than one Tempest demonstrator planned?

Not doubting and cearly sensible considering the history of aircraft development. Just haven't seen a reference before.

[SW1]

Warton are also assembling a couple tempest development test aircraft

Has it been officially stated that there's more than one Tempest demonstrator planned?

Not doubting and cearly sensible considering the history of aircraft development. Just haven't seen a reference before.

There is more than 1 demonstrator aircraft planned but nothing I can reference to in articles ect.

[new guy]

Warton are also assembling a couple tempest development test aircraft

Has it been officially stated that there's more than one Tempest demonstrator planned?

Not doubting and cearly sensible considering the history of aircraft development. Just haven't seen a reference before.

There is more than 1 demonstrator aircraft planned but nothing I can reference to in articles ect.

I believe there is a "Tempest demonstrator" then then a "GCAP" demonstrator then more will follow on after that.

[wargame_insomniac]

Sounds to me that worst case scenario Warton is going to become a support, subassembly, and upgrade business between now and the early 2030s. There's 63 fuselages to provide Spain / Quadriga plus 40 ECR2 upgrades (and more for KSA?). Also bear in mind Tempest is a revenue generating project. Warton's not going to close any time soon.

But the KSA order would be nice.

I think the KSA order is now close to nailed on. For at least 48. Could be as many as 72...

But there are more Typhoon orders....there is Halcon I and Halcon II for Spain for 45 aircraft, with an increasing likelihood of a Halcon III as well as F-35 has fallen out of favour. Plus 38 Quadriga for Germany, with 'up to' another 50 to come. Excluding the remaining Kuwaiti and Qatari jets to be built there are 83 new Typoon on contract....without Egypt (24), KSA (48-72) or the remaining German order (up to 50). The potential there is up to another 146....

Basically, there is likely to be c200 Typhoon's remaining to be built. There is a possibility that it could be even more...Italy, Poland, Qatar (option for an additional 12), Turkey....

ECR2 upgrades will be for UK, Saudi's and Omani's...thats 124 aircraft in total.

If only we could get the UK Gov to purchase 24 EK variant and upgrade the 67 RAF Tranche 2 to ECR2 as well....Warton might actually complain about the workload then...

[Spitfire9]

Did Egypt jusrt express an interest in Typhoon or are there signs it wants to buy some?

I do not think that Poland would choose Typhoon over KF-21 if it is happy dealing with ROK/KAI. Last thing I heard was that Poland would like to buy out Indonesia's stake in the programme.

Turkey? After putting the German chancellor on the spot over Israel during Erdogan's recent visit, is Germany now more inclined to supply Turkey than it was?

[serge750]

Did Egypt jusrt express an interest in Typhoon or are there signs it wants to buy some?

I do not think that Poland would choose Typhoon over KF-21 if it is happy dealing with ROK/KAI. Last thing I heard was that Poland would like to buy out Indonesia's stake in the programme.

Turkey? After putting the German chancellor on the spot over Israel during Erdogan's recent visit, is Germany now more inclined to supply Turkey than it was?

Allegedly there is a contract in the works for 24 aircraft as part of the wider arms deal with Italy.

Poland is looking for, specifically, a 'heavy' Air to Air heavy fighter. KF-21 could be in the frame. But Typhoon's local user base, spares, training support etc does work in its favour. They also apparently want it soon, which means KF-21 in its early guise might not be appropriate. Problems with financing the Korean orders might also play against it.

Turkey is a distant prospect, the recent Erdogan criticism of the US/UK in the Red Sea also plays against them, but sometimes this is overstated diplomatically as statements for domestic consumption are often ignored. Keeping the Turks in the tent pissing out rather than in is also important. Ultimately, like the US with F-16, by supplying them with kit that needs ongoing support you also retain some control. Better than them buying Russian or Chinese...

[SD67]

As a former cost accountant I love nerding out with this stuff .

Currently in production - Customer / activity / backlog :

Qatar Assembly c10
Kuwait Fuselage c15

Currently Contracted - Program / activity / PO Qty :

Quadriga Fuselage 38
Halcon 1 Fuselage 20

Total Legal Commitment = Assembly 10 + Fuselage 73. Enough to creep through to the 2030s, just.

Announced / Budgeted but not contracted :

ECR2 Radar upgrade 40 (no PO for the actual conversion yet - only development / integration. But budgeted)
Egypt Fuselage 24
Halcon 2 Fuselage 25

Total Announced Commitment = Upgrade 40 + Fuselage 49.

Mooted and no German Veto :
KSA Assembly 48?

Anything further is speculation, and within a Sales funnel you'd be attaching a 20-30% weighting to it.

[Jackstar]

Statement on Air Strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen
On 22 January, the UK conducted further strikes against Houthi targets. Four Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4s, supported by a pair of Voyager tankers, joined US forces in a deliberate strike against Houthi sites in Yemen.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/stat ... s-in-yemen

[Spitfire9]

I read elsewhere that 12 of the Qatari order for 24 were delivered October 2022 - October 2023. Presumably work on frame 24 has already started. If a KSA order were given this year, when could the first aircraft be delivered after a break in assembly?

On the Turkish front, while US senator opposition to F-16 supply seems to have been overcome, approval may involve constraints on use of the fighters - not to enter Greek air space etc. Approval of supply may also be withheld until Sweden has actually joined NATO. Perhaps to ensure that Turkey does not go back on ratifying Sweden's entry to the club? Also there is quite a backlog of F-16 orders, pushing delivery of F-16 back to 2029, I have heard. Additionally, the TAI Kaan national 5G fighter with full sovereignty (a Turkish engine) looks unlikely to be delivered to the TUAF within the next 10 years.

In one Turkish aviation medium I frequent, there is a call for Turkey to buy a few Typhoons (say 40). An order for 40 from Turkey or for 48 from KSA would help keep Warton busy for some time, I would guess.

What are the prospects of Warton picking up another order from these two countries?

[Spitfire9]

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/def ... 6-progress