The war in Ukraine

[Phil Sayers]

Likewise, has anyone seen any information / informed speculation regarding which weapons will be provided with the F-16s? Presumably, older-model AMRAAMs for air-to-air stuff but what about ground attack? Obviously, hundreds of JASSMs would be a huge-game changer whereas limiting supplies to things like SDBs would only move the needle a little.

[Ian Hall]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the- ... ir-strikes

[TheLoneRanger]

Likewise, has anyone seen any information / informed speculation regarding which weapons will be provided with the F-16s? Presumably, older-model AMRAAMs for air-to-air stuff but what about ground attack? Obviously, hundreds of JASSMs would be a huge-game changer whereas limiting supplies to things like SDBs would only move the needle a little.

F16 AMRAAM combo will totally remove Russian air superiority over Ukraine.

Much has been said of the Su 35 and it's supposed capabilities, our ability to actually (alleged) carefully study it's radar and avionics, thanks to the Ukrainians, in a form of 'reverse gifting', has shown it's not that great.

It's radar can out range F16, yes, but the F16 has a 'much' smaller frontal radar signature, that means the two have to significantly close the gap to get a lock and launch.

My money is on F16 getting a missile off the rails first, there's no way around the fact that the Flanker family has a huge radar return from every aspect, if it gets within the AMRAAM's envelope, it's pretty much dead meat.

[mr.fred]

I’ve seem articles suggesting that the greater threat to Ukrainian aircraft is the MiG 31 with the R37 missiles

[mrclark303]

I’ve seem articles suggesting that the greater threat to Ukrainian aircraft is the MiG 31 with the R37 missiles

I've always considered the Mig 31 / R37 combo as more of a force multiplier killer, i.e taking out large and slow, high flying and slow moving ELINT, AWAC and AAR assets from great range.

Getting a solid lock on an F16 will be a very different prospect and I think the R37 would be lucky to hit a hard manoeuvring small target.

[mr.fred]

Getting a solid lock on an F16 will be a very different prospect and I think the R37 would be lucky to hit a hard manoeuvring small target.

Is the F16 that much of a smaller return than a Mig 29?
Fighter aircraft aren't pulling hard manoeuvres all the time.

[mrclark303]

Getting a solid lock on an F16 will be a very different prospect and I think the R37 would be lucky to hit a hard manoeuvring small target.

Is the F16 that much of a smaller return than a Mig 29?
Fighter aircraft aren't pulling hard manoeuvres all the time.

The F16 has a much smaller radar cross section than the Mig29, it's compressor face is well hidden by cleaver intake design.

The Mig29 is quite the opposite, both compressor faces visible and creating a strong return.....

Re the manoeuvring, the F16 would be taking aggressive evasive action as it's ESM threat warning equipment would be telling him precisely what had locked onto, it's range and baring, he would have his ECM on, chaff dispenser working and taking the required action to break the lock or give the missile a very difficult target by offering extremely challenging vectors of approach.

By example, early pulse Doppler fighter radar's (like the Mig 29) could be defeated by flying at a right angle to the oncoming fighter, the target effectively outpacing the radar return and effectively disappearing!

Modern radar's are much harder to defeat, but the point is, a Mig31 would probably be forced to get far closer than comfortable to an F16, probably steaming in at full tilt, taking it's shot and blasting on through and running for hills.

[Zeno]

Could the f-16 receive radar data from N.A.T.O aircraft to enable it not to give its transmission away ?

[Phil Sayers]

Ukraine's naval drones are now coming equipped with their own MLRS. Just firing from range at the naval base as per the video is likely going to be little more than nuisance fire (which does have value mind) unless they get lucky but if they were to approach a vessel at sea they could get close enough to do some serious damage with multiple hits while suppressing defensive fire as the drone itself closes to impact the ship.

Where this would really come into its own is if they could also add a laser designator to allow the drone to fire guided missiles at vulnerable parts of a ship such as the radar to blind it or a loaded missile silo to blow it up:

[Timmymagic]

This might answer the question of what the 150 towed AA guns from the UK are/were...

https://aei-systems.com/ae20mm-cannon/

[Ian Hall]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-i ... not-falter

[Jdam]

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111759344997157073

The Russian losing some important assets.

[Caribbean]

Ukraine seems to have been very successful at targetting Russian surface radar covering Crimea in particular. Presumably this forced the Russians to push the airborn radar further forward to cover for that, resulting in today's loss.

As I understand it, this may force the Russians to rely on fighter/ bomber radar more, making them more vulnerable to SAMs

[2HeadsBetter]

The beeb are suggesting it was a Patriot missile strike:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67978739

[mrclark303]

The beeb are suggesting it was a Patriot missile strike:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67978739

If it was a patriot system, then Russia has dropped a massive clanger of a mistake!

It's possible of course that the Ukrainians risked a Patriot system by pushing it as far forward as they dared and tracked, locked and launched.

Just waiting for a juicy target to wander into the patriots engagement zone, NATO assets let them know when to 'switch on' and into the shredder the A50 goes...

[Jdam]

Has an AEW aircraft ever been shot down? (before today)

[Phil Sayers]

Has an AEW aircraft ever been shot down? (before today)

Yes - North Korea downed a USN AEW aircraft in the late 60s. I can't think of any other instance though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_EC-1 ... n_incident

[Ian Hall]

By a former Swedish Prime Minister.

https://ecfr.eu/article/a-war-of-wills- ... n-in-2024/

[Ian Hall]

I remember looking over a decommissioned Tarantul many years ago. It was grim, made the former HMS Sandpiper and Petrel look luxurious.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_tara ... -9219.html

[Chris Werb]

Has an AEW aircraft ever been shot down? (before today)

Yes - North Korea downed a USN AEW aircraft in the late 60s. I can't think of any other instance though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_EC-1 ... n_incident

That particular EC-121 was ELINT rather than AEW, so the A-50 was the first.

[SW1]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68018660

[Caribbean]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68018660

This problem has been known about for some time. The solution is political, not military and involves sanctioning individual oil re-exporters in both countries, which will not go down well with either of them

Ukraine on the other hand, are aware of this and have taken the direct route. Currently they are striking a major piece of Russian refined oil infrastructure every 3 or 4 days, starting with the largest refineries. They are largely ignoring the crude oil infrastructure.

It seems to be an effective strategy as Putin issued a decree, a couple of days ago, forbidding the export of refined petrol & diesel, which they are now struggling to supply, in sufficient quantity, to the invasion forces.

It's interesting to note that, in an assault on Avdiivka (?sp) yesterday, the majority of Russian armour losses (c. 70 vehicles) were abandoned vehicles, thought to be mainly due to lack of fuel

[SW1]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68018660

This problem has been known about for some time. The solution is political, not military and involves sanctioning individual oil re-exporters in both countries, which will not go down well with either of them

Ukraine on the other hand, are aware of this and have taken the direct route. Currently they are striking a major piece of Russian refined oil infrastructure every 3 or 4 days, starting with the largest refineries. They are largely ignoring the crude oil infrastructure.

It seems to be an effective strategy as Putin issued a decree, a couple of days ago, forbidding the export of refined petrol & diesel, which they are now struggling to supply, in sufficient quantity, to the invasion forces.

It's interesting to note that, in an assault on Avdiivka (?sp) yesterday, the majority of Russian armour losses (c. 70 vehicles) were abandoned vehicles, thought to be mainly due to lack of fuel

It is and we know about the Russian oil tankers transporting even thru the English Channel. We are turning a blind eye despite our rhetoric if we really wanted to squeeze putin we would stop it.

[Scimitar54]

Before you propose to initiate WWIII, do you not think it prudent to take into account our woeful lack of preparedness?

[Caribbean]

It is and we know about the Russian oil tankers transporting even thru the English Channel. We are turning a blind eye despite our rhetoric if we really wanted to squeeze putin we would stop it.

However, some claim that Putin is currently being forced to sell crude at below production cost, as they don't have storage capacity & can't turn a lot of the wells off.