Russian Armed Forces

[Lord Jim]

Driver training in the east.

[ArmChairCivvy]

The Ukraine bit in the above was highly entertaining:
A street barricade... whhoom... what barricade?

[ArmChairCivvy]

But what is most alarming is what is happening at sea: a huge escalation in economic pressure on Ukraine

US+EU coordinating response so as to maintain freedom of navigation:
"Foreign ministers from the 28 EU member states are expected to talk about the prospect of further sanctions as part of a wider debate on the situation in Ukraine during a foreign affairs council meeting in Brussels on Monday.

This follows Russia's decision on 25 November to detain the Ukrainian sailors and their three navy vessels as they attempted to pass through the Kerch Strait from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov. The sailors remain in detention."

[seaspear]

This is why the discussion on Nord stream 2 was so important by being able to bypass the Ukraine to supply gas to Germany ,Russia is now in a much stronger position to do as it wills in the Ukraine ,
Russia is heavily dependant on the exporting of fuel products ,if Germany in particular had sourced these from elsewhere Russia would not be in the position to turn off the tap also Germany does not want to be reliant on the U.S for its gas ,which ever shows the price of the gas is high or it believes that dealing with Russia is more morally defensible LOL

[ArmChairCivvy]

Russia is now in a much stronger position to do as it wills in the Ukraine

We are already seeing a squeeze on the exports that enter the world market through ports on the Azov Sea. Even though Ukraine's energy needs can (and are) supplied from elsewhere - no more cold winters also when you are inside a house - switching off the transito gas flow would be a very big blow, with the fees drying up.

[Lord Jim]

Should be interesting if the USN send a AB into the Sea of Azov, I wonder how many Russian jets would buzz such a vessel in that situation?

[Lord Jim]

Interesting equivalent to the M2.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Russian ASW missiles (These fit into their corvettes!) are something else, at least for heftitiness:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... tem_01.jpg
as it is the "91R1" version, also pictured
- though I suspect a 'translation error' and ASuW was meant when ASW was used as a descriptor
- the other one is the land attack version (that has been in the spot light for longer)

[ArmChairCivvy]

A nice overview, at a high level, why upgrading & refurbing old is the name of the game:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKCN1QA0U7

[ArmChairCivvy]

Could be the most significant internal political development since the 2012 anti-gvmnt demonstrations, which have been the key reason driving Russia to reaching the limits of its defense spending: in 2016, it spent 5.67 trillion rubles ($84.6 billion at an average annual exchange rate) or 6.59 percent of GDP. It is important that Russia’s cumulative defense expenditure should be estimated based on two items of the federal budget – “National defense” (3.77 trillion rubles/ $56.3 billion) and “National security and law enforcement” (1.9 trillion rubles/ $28.3 billion).
- namely https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKCN1QD0EY, those interested may take note of the slogan
- also Nemtsov's 2015 assassination ran in a direct line from those 2012 demonstrations, though the extra spice that made Kremlin gag on the broth that was coming from simmer to boiling over (then) was his previous in-depth investigation of corruption and the-then current look-in to the origins of and reasons for the 2014 Ukraine conflict

[seaspear]

https://www.9news.com.au/2019/03/07/14/ ... ked-off-uk
Interesting to see this added to a ship ,there may be applications against swarm type attacks ,certainly passing helicopters may get a surprise .

[Lord Jim]

I get nervous when a Country decides that it will rely heavily on its nuclear arsenal to defend itself and its interests. So Putting decides on a land grab and then say try to take it back and I will push the big red button. Would any European leader be willing to call his bluff?

[ArmChairCivvy]

So Putting decides on a land grab and then say try to take it back and I will push the big red button.

That is exactly the problem. When the reaction to Crimea (grab) came out stronger than what he had expected - most people outside Russia would not know why Catherina became "Great" in the foot steps of Peter (the name sake of their battle cruiser) and what place the Crimea occupies in the Russian collective "psyche", which is exactly why that "land grab" was the lowest risk for him to take. A sure win... plundered by going state-on-state with Ukraine. Which Putin sees as a province, but that does not wash with the wider Russian public.

So; what did he say, in reaction to the reaction? "Remember... we have nukes (too)."

And his latest two hr -long speech:
- low yield nuclear (AKA tactical)
- installed on cruise missiles
- and that "we" = they have them already... how many days since INF became a dead letter (and why?)?

The next big "thing" to kick off might not be
- in the SCS
- and not between India and Pakistan, either
Not in the Gulf region (well, with those guys there all armed to their teeth, who can tell. An accident waiting to happen)
- but the next Putin grab of non-NATO territory. In Europe. Geographically Georgia is in Europe. Eastern Ukraine is also in Europe (though the name means "borderlands", and that is what it was. Marauding nomads vs. civilised folks). What I mean is in "Europe - proPPer".

Big Red Button... ohh, that is so yesterday

[abc123]

most people outside Russia would not know why Catherina became "Great" in the foot steps of Peter (the name sake of their battle cruiser) and what place the Crimea occupies in the Russian collective "psyche", which is exactly why that "land grab" was the lowest risk for him to take. A sure win...

[Lord Jim]

Big Red Button... ohh, that is so yesterday

Ok swipe left on his smart phone.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Ok swipe left on his smart phone.

Take it away, quick!

Then again: "they" have made the inner circle proof against cyber
- using the good, old IBM 'ball-head' type writers for communications, when not face to face

[ArmChairCivvy]

Been writing before about the new Defence & Defence Industrial Plan out to 2027, but let's take a little more general look at it (and the situation, as the half-way post is equally, or more so, important):

The plan is stated to be for supporting Russia's overall standing (including internal perception of it - not stated ) and influence.
- strategic nuclear weapons are the pillar for the 'standing' and they take up a third of the the financing for defence efforts (save for internal security)
- long-range precision weapons are supposed to be a balancing factor, but other than for the Iskander brigades, just the limited effort in Syria put such factories onto ' three shifts' in order to support that effort (which had to rely on dumb, or indiscriminate weapons in the main).

C2 and logs (for extended Ops not necessarily within own territory) have been emphasised more than before for investment, and this is reflected in the fewer subdivisions of 'military districts' with all of them becoming 'joint'.
- before, the decentralisation grew out of necessity

What seems to be a distinguishing factor (so far) is that there is a readiness to compromise between quantity and quality - more so than in the 'West'.
- whereas readiness gets a higher priority (than in the 'West')
- the switch from the official prgrm to 2020, over to the one to 2027 sees a pretty much level financing (down from the top year, but the climb to that peak was quite steep)

Sanctions do and will have an effect (less so than on the 'money spinning' extractive industries, but the real brake is (and will be?) the inability to break away from the Soviet-era industry structures/ conglomerates (as opposed to what has been happening in China, with the much more pronounced activities on the civilian side supporting the cash-flow and recruiting of key players, so that some real competition has been seen to emerge - not just the work created by ' design bureaus' being doled out to the industry, for them to manufacture).

Corruption has been a factor in stopping the hi-tech effects spilling over to the civilian sector (in a NASA-like, state subsidised way, copied from the Cold War era), too.

Shows of external strength have so far contributed to internal stability. But the state leadership is taking no risks, as seen in the massive funding for internal security structures.

These, being amongst the so-called Power Ministries enjoy a lion's share of funding (at the state level, where the mineral wealth is being doled out... if there is anything left after the key administrators have taken their share).
- however, they do overlap ('Divide & Conquer , just like in the Third Reich)
- the President dominates in all nominations, and also in the C2 structure (for both defence and internal security) that is is very centralised (on him as one person)

2024 is beckoning, however, but in all likelihood transition processes (planned or not so) will kick in before then.
- Can the 'patriotism wave' created be made to last that far out?

Trust in institutions is very low, the spill-over from the state taking over main stream media has had the the internet and social media as a 'safety valve' but this is now being countered with Draconian measures (brought back from a study trip to China) and all that's left is to take to the streets... which will not be viewed, or seen, by anyone, as the cencorship has been extended to plug all remaining holes and the 400.000 strong internal security apparatus 'stands ready'

[ArmChairCivvy]

If anyone wondered why Russia has an Arctic strategy (and better still: an Arctic Command) and we don't... well, came across quite a striking statistic.

Considering that in Russian Federation money is mainly dug out of the ground, currently a fifth of the GDP derives from North of the Polar Circle
- looking ahead, 95% of gas reserves and 75% of oil relate to the Arctic or sub-Arctic areas

[abc123]

If anyone wondered why Russia has an Arctic strategy (and better still: an Arctic Command) and we don't... well, came across quite a striking statistic.

IMHO that's just a propaganda and hot air, not something really useful. At least not now, maybe one day when polar ice melts, but Russia will by then have enough problems of their own because of rising sea levels...

[ArmChairCivvy]

Russia will by then have enough problems of their own because of rising sea levels...

Permafrost starting to melt will release green gases in amounts not seen while the humans have been... err, humans
- though most of it is in Russia, it will be everybody's problem

Anyway, carbon deposits is what they have and what they will continue to milk to the maximum effect, both for instant cash and for defending/ extending the influence of the Russian Federation (if the demand for such fuels is maintained)
- faster substitution could be a huge shock
- the other shock is already happening: after 5 yrs of reversing the negative population growth, in 2017 births went down by 10%. Simply an inheritance from the crash of the late '90s as that crash made for exceptionally small age cohorts then and still, as a carry-over, just after the millennium. Fast forward to 2030 and women in child bearing age will be 7-8 million fewer than in 2010
... that is a whopping 1/3 down

[xav]

Russia Launched First Project 636.3 Submarine for Pacific Fleet

The first Project 636.3 (NATO designation: Improved Kilo-class) diesel electric submarine (SSK) for the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet was launched on March 28, 2019 in St. Petersburg at JSC "Admiralty Shipyards" (a member of united shipbuilding corporation OCK).

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... fic-fleet/

[Lord Jim]

Interesting where all the men in the background are looking in the photo. Not surprising though.

[ArmChairCivvy]

One would think that Armata will re-emerge from the drawing board and whether it will be a Xmas tree of sensors (including the one against top-attack ATGWs) will be of special interest
- the role of heavy (155 mm) artillery against tanks might be elevated, giving loadsa mission kills. Even though the optics for operating the main armament are quite well protected, so stripping out self-defence capabilities does not quite equate to a mission kill

[RetroSicotte]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russ ... -hdpjmxgx6

In short - Lacking any practical way to repair it, the Kuz may be for the out, and say goodbye to what little aircraft carrier capability the Russians had.

I look forward to seeing the people (not here, thankfully) who constantly shouted "RN not real navy cos they have no carrier like Russia!" change their tune to "Carriers are outdated anyway!" to commence damage control.

[PapaGolf]

Interesting where all the men in the background are looking in the photo. Not surprising though.

Eyyyyeeeessss right!