Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[ArmChairCivvy]

Jag says they will potentially be hit for a cool billion. If you are not planning to buy one (or a Landie) or you do not work for the company (directly or in the supply chain), you might not care.

However, Oliver Wyman (originally a strategy and risk consulting specialist... fits in here nicely) has taken the same starting point and modelled what "keeping business profitability unchanged" would mean for consumers:
- avg household hit for £ 245-961 a year

All English-speaking countries riding to the rescue? Well, with only the US and Oz added to the model, with trade deals, immediate such ), then
- the same impacts are modified to £ 134-758

The BoE & Treasury will tell us in a mo what the impact on growth will do to the public services (defence not excepted) in the longer term
- perhaps Hammond has been told already (that part of the Chequers briefings has not been leaked, yet)

Back to Jag: "an unmistakable message has been sent" in the local MP's words, peppered with "risk" and "jeopardy"

[dmereifield]

Remember that such announcements are based on now deal. This is not going to happen. Even in the event of a less than "deep and special partnership" (or whatever the lingo is these days, a CETA style free trade deal, the EU negotiating mandates clearly state that tariff free and minimal barriers can be achieved

[ArmChairCivvy]

are based on no[w] deal. This is not going to happen.

Not relating to you, but only recently "no deal" AKA trading on WTO terms was seen as "wonderful" by many commentators
- the ones who got themselves onto utube will regret the reputational damage, which is only increasing along with more facts being released (to others, too, not just the negotiators and their political masters)

Anyone heard the one that "Trump offered Macron a special trade deal" should he steer his country out of the EU?
- I thought that was the agenda of Marin LePen (who lost, despite generous campaign funding from...?). Too many old investigations pending (over there) for that having had a serious going over -yet!

[SKB]

That's not the Brexit I voted for. She has to go.

[Pseudo]

That's not the Brexit I voted for. She has to go.

Of course it isn't. That's because the Brexit you voted for is Winston Churchill drinking a pint of real ale while flying a Spitfire over Wembley Stadium during the 1966 World Cup Final as Geoff Hurst completes his hat-trick.

I wouldn't worry yourself too much, though. I can't see the EU going for this because it amounts to the UK remaining in the single market for goods while rejecting the supremacy of the ECJ and restricting freedom of movement. I suspect that this is why we didn't see any cabinet resignations yesterday. There's nothing much to be gained in dying on a hill in a battle that doesn't need to be fought.

The EU will probably phrase their rejection very diplomatically and talk in terms of it being a basis for negotiation, but ultimately they're still going to move the UK to select from the two options that have been on the table since negotiations began.

As for May's position, In the near-term I think that if the hard-Brexiteers had the numbers to win a vote of no confidence in her leadership of the party they would have pulled the trigger before now rather than relying on carping and impotent threats delivered by Rees-Mogg. May's goal appears to have been keeping the party together by finding a compromise that is acceptable to both wings. Unfortunately, no such compromise exists and I think that it's likely May will remain PM and deliver a close to EFTA Brexit before being unceremoniously dumped by the party shortly afterwards. This will allow both wings to blame her for the inevitable disastrous consequences of leaving the EU and then the country can spend the next parliament arguing over whether it should rejoin the EU or leave the EFTA-type agreement.

[clinch]

Looks very much like the Cameron EU negotiation to me. Spend a while with UK and EU making it look like they are at each others' throats and negotiating hard. UK negotiator and devoted EU supporter Olly Robbins eventually tells MPs he is getting nowhere. May publishes plan to stay in single market, customs union and freedom of movement but with different names - claiming that we're taking back control.

[jedibeeftrix]

Let's hope not. Seems like a reasonable compromise. But if needs be, we'll go full market economy with all the creative destruction that entails.

[FuNsTeR]

i can't imagine hard line brexiters like jacob reece mogg accepting that, i can see his group try to oust may

[Pseudo]

Let's hope not. Seems like a reasonable compromise. But if needs be, we'll go full market economy with all the creative destruction that entails.

What do you think the consequences of this "creative destruction" will be for the tax base, and how do you think that will effect the defence budget?

i can't imagine hard line brexiters like jacob reece mogg accepting that, i can see his group try to oust may

What choice do they have? If they had enough support to topple her they would have done so already. Rees-Mogg doesn't carp and issue impotent threats because he wants to, he does it because that's all he's got.

[ArmChairCivvy]

deliver a close to EFTA Brexit before being unceremoniously dumped by the party shortly afterwards. This will allow both wings to blame her for the inevitable disastrous consequences of leaving the EU and then the country can spend the next parliament arguing over whether it should rejoin the EU or leave the EFTA-type agreement.

That is pretty much it... and in the 11th hour the EU will (on the services side; missing from the headlines, oddly) throw in the concession that passporting (a 1992 "innovation") will indeed continue to apply... as long as THEY continue to confirm that regulatory equivalence has continued
... you see, a bit of a knife on the throat: the EU would gain nothing form disrupting trade (where they are reaping the net benefit); whereas the UK economy (or even more so, the tax base) would be devastated should services "exports" not be covered

with all the creative destruction that entails.

... is your middle name Schumpeter , by any chance?

[SDL]

David Davis has buggered off from the Brexit secretary role. No word yet on who will replace him.

[Dave]

Press Association reporting on Twitter that David Davis has resigned.

Probably won't make any difference to the negotiations, he's as much use as a chocolate fire guard...

[SDL]

Too many little children in Westminster getting into a hissy fit over not getting exactly what they wanted.... Hard Brexit was never on the table. We'd end up bankrupt if we went that route and no sensible human being would legitimately think it was a good idea.

To be blunt.

[Dave]

Too many little children in Westminster getting into a hissy fit over not getting exactly what they wanted.... Hard Brexit was never on the table. We'd end up bankrupt if we went that route and no sensible human being would legitimately think it was a good idea.

To be blunt.

We seem to be in short supply of those in (and around) government...

[dmereifield]

Too many little children in Westminster getting into a hissy fit over not getting exactly what they wanted.... Hard Brexit was never on the table. We'd end up bankrupt if we went that route and no sensible human being would legitimately think it was a good idea.

To be blunt.

Define hard brexit

[ArmChairCivvy]

DD himself on R4 @8:10

[ArmChairCivvy]

On record, saying that he does not believe the strategy to be the best one and therefore not being the best man to deliver on it...

Next round: What will BoJo say on record (and has he actually said, off it, about "polishing a turd"?)?

For the politicians the NI arrangements seem to be the Sword of Damocles (high visibility) whereas business says that it is actually the arrangements for services trade (if anyone happens to remember them, in the last minute) ... the political stakes about the Irish border, and what hangs on that, having brought the trade in goods much more to the fore (so far).

[Pseudo]

Dominic Raab is the new DExEU Secretary. He's a hard-Brexit supporter but must have signed on to May's negotiating position in order to take on the role. I suppose that the big question for the EU will be how much he'll try to interfere in Olly Robbins negotiation.

[ArmChairCivvy]

the big question for the EU will be how much he'll try to interfere in Olly Robbins negotiation.

Well, we are starting from a low base... so, more
- but how much more (the EU team is integrated and goes down to the technocrats level, with ease)?

[Pseudo]

the big question for the EU will be how much he'll try to interfere in Olly Robbins negotiation.

Well, we are starting from a low base... so, more

Good point.

- but how much more (the EU team is integrated and goes down to the technocrats level, with ease)?

Yeah. One advantage of a technocratic negotiation being led by a technocratic institution is that they're very well organised.

I still think that May would be better off having a "put up or shut up" vote of confidence in her leadership sooner and on her own terms than hoping to avoid one entirely. She'd still be very likely to win it and if she did she would be immune from another vote for a year, which would give her a much freer hand in pursuing her Brexit policy. She'd be toast after that, but she is anyway.

[dmereifield]

the big question for the EU will be how much he'll try to interfere in Olly Robbins negotiation.

Well, we are starting from a low base... so, more

Good point.

- but how much more (the EU team is integrated and goes down to the technocrats level, with ease)?

Yeah. One advantage of a technocratic negotiation being led by a technocratic institution is that they're very well organised.

I still think that May would be better off having a "put up or shut up" vote of confidence in her leadership sooner and on her own terms than hoping to avoid one entirely. She'd still be very likely to win it and if she did she would be immune from another vote for a year, which would give her a much freer hand in pursuing her Brexit policy. She'd be toast after that, but she is anyway.

Even if she wins having 60-100 MPs note against you her would be hugely damaging. They could also bog down government business in the intervening year, including refusing to vote for the Queen's speech or the Budget....May's position and authority is weak, and can only get weaker whatever happens.....god only knows how the next few months will pan out

[dmereifield]

Dominic Raab is the new DExEU Secretary. He's a hard-Brexit supporter but must have signed on to May's negotiating position in order to take on the role. I suppose that the big question for the EU will be how much he'll try to interfere in Olly Robbins negotiation.

What on earth possessed him to take that on? He is on a hiding to nothing. Taking on a poisoned chalice with no long term future that will significantly damage his credentials with the Tory base. I really can't see what he has to gain from this move. Any ideas?

[clinch]

Too many little children in Westminster getting into a hissy fit over not getting exactly what they wanted.... Hard Brexit was never on the table. We'd end up bankrupt if we went that route and no sensible human being would legitimately think it was a good idea.

To be blunt.

Define hard brexit

I can define Remain; it's May's plan:

Common Rule Book = Single Market

Facilitated Customs Arrangement = Customs Union

Joint Institutional Framework = ECJ

Mobility Framework = Freedom of Movement.

[Pseudo]

Even if she wins having 60-100 MPs note against you her would be hugely damaging. They could also bog down government business in the intervening year, including refusing to vote for the Queen's speech or the Budget....May's position and authority is weak, and can only get weaker whatever happens.....god only knows how the next few months will pan out

It'd be a difficult position for Brexiteers because the price of damaging and destabilising May's government could be increasing support for the alternative, a Corbyn-led government. Admittedly, the polling has so far been pretty immune to the division and infighting within the Tories, but that could change if those divisions begin to prevent the government from being effective and passing legislation.

[ArmChairCivvy]

could change if those divisions begin to prevent the government from being effective and passing legislation.

Back to the future? We will get Momentum setting the agenda on that side and crazed Brexiteers sabotaging the Tory agenda... so 80% of the voters will be sandwiched between these extremes

Will be a show to watch... until the lights go out ("Brexit impact" )