Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[dmereifield]

The UK is to leave the 1964 London Fisheries Convention. Signed in 1964, it allows vessels from six European countries to fish between six and twelve miles from the coast. UK environment secretary Michael Gove said it was an important step in "taking back control" of fishing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-40467090
Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisheries_Convention

Hilarious.

How so?

[SKB]

The government has published the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill which will absorb EU law into British law.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/b ... /18005.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40589510

[SKB]

"We are with Europe but not of it; we are linked but not compromised. We are associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea."

Sir Winston Churchill, 11th May , 1953

[ArmChairCivvy]

Putting bbc and torygraph reporting together, it seems simple: we just put defence on hold for a full year and job done!
"Last month, Brexit Secretary David Davis said he was confident negotiations would continue as planned after reports Brussels may delay trade talks because of a lack of progress on the "divorce" settlement.

At the weekend, the Sunday Telegraph claimed UK negotiators are now prepared to pay up to £36bn to the EU to settle the so-called Brexit divorce bill.

A senior Government source told the Press Association agency that "no such figure has been agreed".["]

[dmereifield]

Putting bbc and torygraph reporting together, it seems simple: we just put defence on hold for a full year and job done!
"Last month, Brexit Secretary David Davis said he was confident negotiations would continue as planned after reports Brussels may delay trade talks because of a lack of progress on the "divorce" settlement.

At the weekend, the Sunday Telegraph claimed UK negotiators are now prepared to pay up to £36bn to the EU to settle the so-called Brexit divorce bill.

A senior Government source told the Press Association agency that "no such figure has been agreed".["]

That's only 3 years worth of our net contributions...if it results in an FTA it will be a worth while investment. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather we didn't have to, but as long as we get a clean Brexit and a good trading arrangement with a collaborative relationship in other areas then so be it...

[ArmChairCivvy]

We agree

as long as we get a clean Brexit and a good trading arrangement with a collaborative relationship in other areas then so be it...

- for the bolded bit, a copy-paste of what was given to Turkey looks like a high aspiration for us
- of course it was given to secure "a collaborative relationship in other areas" as membership has always looked like decades away - why would we want a non-European country in the European Union - and now even further out

[SDL]

We're not going to get that though... we never were.

[ArmChairCivvy]

That's only 3 years worth of our net contributions..

Contributions net of the rebate are not net contributions:
- the former £12.9 bn
- we get back £6bn (to the UK)
+ another bn flows out as UK's part of the EU aid prgrms

So the real net is 6 bn, so the mooted divorce bill is six times that much (we will still need to put defence on hold for a full year!)

[dmereifield]

That's only 3 years worth of our net contributions..

Contributions net of the rebate are not net contributions:
- the former £12.9 bn
- we get back £6bn (to the UK)
+ another bn flows out as UK's part of the EU aid prgrms

So the real net is 6 bn, so the mooted divorce bill is six times that much (we will still need to put defence on hold for a full year!)

Ok, was going from memory...our contributions have been and continue to increase, from £8bn net last year, climbing to nearly £11 bn in 2020/2021.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/316 ... ean-union/

So 4-5 years worth of our net contributions.....I can stomach that if it leads to a final relationship with good trade and continued cooperation in education, research etc. We must obtain this through a water tight legal agreement prior to agreeing to pay any such sum...

[ArmChairCivvy]

This is something that Dr. Fox may actually have been working on , and would have been quickly deliverable (may be too early to say that it is now "down the bin", anyone can make up their own mind from this Guardian piece):

"Plans for a prestigious UK-Gulf Co-operation Council meeting in London this year have been put on hold, threatening UK plans for a quick free-trade deal with some of the richest economies in the world after Brexit.

Theresa May promised last year to host the first meeting of the GCC nations outside the Gulf in December as part of a symbolic show of the UK’s strengthening trade and security ties with the regional bloc.

But Gulf nation sources said the two-month dispute between Qatar and three other Gulf states has put planning for the summit on hold. There have been suggestions that if the dispute worsens Qatar will be suspended from the GCC, or that the organisation itself will fold.
The long-running family rivalries behind the Qatar crisis
Read more

Qatar has filed a legal action with the World Trade Organisation over an air, land and trade embargo imposed by other Gulf states in a legal dispute that could take years to resolve.

The complete collapse of the GCC, which was formed in 1981, would complicate British efforts to set up free-trade deals to supplement the loss of EU trade post-Brexit.

In 2016, UK trade with GCC states stood at £30bn, higher than its exports to China and more than double those to India. The international trade secretary, Liam Fox, has hailed the Gulf as one of the areas in which British trade could be quickly expanded; he has identified 31 big-ticket items ranging from oil and gas to infrastructure, life sciences, the creative industries and defence.

A UK-GCC trade working group has already been set up, looking at the Singapore-GCC trade deal as a potential model. The Gulf states have no free-trade deal with the EU after talks stalled in 2008, partly over human rights issues. Efta, the four-nation body of Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Iceland, does have a deal.

It is generally accepted that it would be more difficult for the UK to strike as valuable a deal with individual GCC states than with the council as a whole which, ironically, is modelled on the EU: it has its own internal free-trade agreement signed in 1983, a customs union implemented in 2015, and a declaration of commitment to freedom of movement for people and goods in 2018."

[SKB]

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill - Second Reading (Commons) result:
('Great Repeal Bill")

Ayes: 326

Noes: 290

Majority: 36

The Bill now moves to Committee Stage. Committee stage is where a Bill is considered line-by-line and is normally the next stage after a Bill's second reading. It is an opportunity for changes to be made to the wording or for new clauses to be added. In the Commons this task is normally done by a small number of MPs in a Public Bill Committee. Occasionally it is done in the Chamber by a Committee of the whole House, as is usual in the Lords.

The stages for a Bill are:

First Reading - PASSED 13th July 2017
Second Reading - PASSED 12th September 2017
Committee Stage
Report Stage
Third Reading
Considerations Of Lords Amendments
Royal Assent (Bill becomes an Act and law)



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41235522

[SDL]

My numbers are probably (aka, definitely) off.... but that's more than the Tories & DUP isn't it?

[dmereifield]

My numbers are probably (aka, definitely) off.... but that's more than the Tories & DUP isn't it?

yup, some labour rebels.....

[SDL]

possibly 7 i'm seeing as the number of rebels

[SKB]

There are:
317 Conservatives
262 Labour
35 SNP
12 Liberal Democrats
10 DUP
4 Plaid Cymru
1 Green Party
1 Independant Unionist
1 Speaker (Does not vote)
7 Sinn Féin (Abstentionists, so cannot vote)
Total: 650

[ArmChairCivvy]

dmereifield


Timmymagic wrote:

ArmChairCivvy wrote:
But because of those two fall guys "set up" Bo-Jo might survive... even if the lightning strikes twice; the third one might now take May (hey! the lightning rods need to be in an elevated position) rather than him.



I think BoJo may have finally turned the corner into being seen as a liability in the last week. That interview was as excruciating as Dianne Abbotts. There has also been some research undertaken by the Conservatives that indicated he did not go down well nationwide.

[ArmChairCivvy]

ArmChairCivvy wrote:@ the time of the Midsummer Night's magic
But because of those two fall guys "set up" Bo-Jo might survive... even if the lightning strikes twice; the third one might now take May (hey! the lightning rods need to be in an elevated position) rather than him.



And the Monday edition of The Times now put it:
"Johnson struck first [,] to avoid being Brexit fall guy"

Bolded the useful parts in the quote above that did not quite work, as for what might have been the driver for this "first strike"

[SKB]

Florence EU Speech

^ Speech begins at 14:20

[SKB]

Moody's downgrades UK credit rating
Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today downgraded the United Kingdom's long-term issuer rating to Aa2 from Aa1 and changed the outlook to stable from negative. The UK's senior unsecured bond rating was also downgraded to Aa2 from Aa1.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_372649

[ArmChairCivvy]

Would be most interested to hear what folks think about this argumentation:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09 ... certainly/

[WhitestElephant]

Too often in politics (and the media) is any opposing view or team made out to be "completely wrong". This, combined with the fact that both sides of the Brexit referendum were hijacked by the most extreme views on the subject (I.e EU is love, EU is life vs EU is Satan, EU is Hitler) meant a proper debate on Britain's best future relations with Europe never happened.

I want Brexit, but...

The EU isn't all bad, free trade with the wealthiest continent on earth is a good thing. This has to be retained post Brexit in some sort of Norway or Canada deal. And yes, we would be free from "ever closer union" and the future federalisation of Europe, and we would be free to make our own trade deals around the world.

I wonder if there was a proper debate on Brexit and what sort of relationship with Europe would be economically best for Britain - the consensus would be rather similar to the above. I'd say an overwhelming majority of Britons would vote for something like that.

[FuNsTeR]

i've heard some nonsense the EU is trying to bully the UK, the truth is they are following the framework set out by article 50 which HMG signed up to, we cannot be exempt to a framework and a article we demanded and the same goes for a extension on the transitional period, the agreed period was 2 years, 18 months negotiating and 6 months ratifying

[Caribbean]

I'm not particularly in favour of Brexit, myself, but we are where we are. However, I do wish that people would read what they are commenting about first:

they are following the framework set out by article 50 which HMG signed up to, we cannot be exempt to a framework and a article we demanded

"the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union"

The UK is trying to negotiate both the withdrawal and the future relationship. So far, the EU has refused to discuss the future relationship, despite Article 50 requiring them to do so

extension on the transitional period, the agreed period was 2 years, 18 months negotiating and 6 months ratifying

"The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period"

So, yes, there is provision within Article 50 for either quicker termination, or an extension - it's not a fixed period

[dmereifield]

i've heard some nonsense the EU is trying to bully the UK, the truth is they are following the framework set out by article 50 which HMG signed up to, we cannot be exempt to a framework and a article we demanded and the same goes for a extension on the transitional period, the agreed period was 2 years, 18 months negotiating and 6 months ratifying

Agreeing to a framework does not preclude bullying, they are not mutually exclusive. The EU are indeed being robust, verging on bullying, but why wouldn't they be? They sense the weakness on the UK side and will press to get the best deal they can get, and hope to give us a kicking whilst they are at it in order to deter future would be leavers. It's logical for them to do so. HMG need to be more sensible in response - it's clear that they will be difficult, and even on their best day, the EU cannot negotiate a free trade deal in 2 years (partly why I want us to leave)...so they should go off the shelf - it's the only expedient way it can be done. My preference would be to go for the Canada FTA, and then build on that with the quick and easily agreeable add ons that are mutually beneficial (e.g. security and defence cooperation, visa free travel, scientific and education cooperation etc)

[ArmChairCivvy]

go for the Canada FTA

Why is that one better than the Norway, Switzerland - h%ll, even the Turkey -agreement templates? Even if they speak English, they pre-implemeneted the Brussels two official languages model