Type 31 Frigate (Inspiration Class) [News Only]

[ArmChairCivvy]

But we are not kitting out the Colombian navy; rather looking for relevant cost benchmarks (size, weapons systems sophistication...) and this one seems to fit, by coincidence, the "build model" a la SJP included?

[ArmChairCivvy]

Ukdefencejournal reported this on 29 May
"The Royal Navy order book in Scotland stands at 5 Offshore Patrol vessels, 8 Type 26 Frigates and assemble an increased figure of 6 Type 31 Frigates, an increase over what was previously promised."
as a fact, but did not give any source for it.

One could further hone the frigate total (8+6) by looking into how many of the T23s skip CAMM and/or Artisan.

[RichardIC]

Ukdefencejournal reported this on 29 May
"The Royal Navy order book in Scotland stands at 5 Offshore Patrol vessels, 8 Type 26 Frigates and assemble an increased figure of 6 Type 31 Frigates, an increase over what was previously promised."
as a fact, but did not give any source for it.

UK Defence Journal is wrong. They've got better but can still be very footloose with the facts. Their claim on six Type 31s is based entirely on a single article in The Times - and that was probably either a typo or an honest mistake.

The facts are:
Five OPVs - correct, all on order and all to be built in Scotland.
8 Type 26 frigates - partially correct. Eight committed to in SDSR 2015, but that is under review. And only the first three are under contract.
6 Type 31 - Wrong. Five promised is SDSR 2015 (now under review). No vessels under contract and possibly years before that happens. No guarantee they will be built in Scotland.

[WhitestElephant]

At £250 million, the likelihood of getting more than 5 does increase, however as people have stated above, we are in OPV-plus territory at that price anyway. A waste of money.

[Jake1992]

Can anyone confirm if the T26 budget has gone up to £10bn, last I saw it was still £8bn for the 8 ??

[ArmChairCivvy]

UK Defence Journal is wrong. They've got better but can still be very footloose with the facts. Their claim on six Type 31s is based entirely on a single article in The Times - and that was probably either a typo or an honest mistake.

I thought so; so the only "fact" is 5 or more.
- building and assembling are of course different, too
- I think the MoD (PR Dept) has learnt its lessons with the British to the bootstraps" Ajax factory/ assembly plant

Do we not have any Quarter Master Generals around here, keeping count of Artisan and CAMM updates going (or rather: not going! onto T23s)?

[Caribbean]

we do a remix of this cake, find a jar of Maraschino cherries in cupboard, and put them onto the cake:
3 x Patrol £360m
£1 bn left for 3 Heavy

Sorry - should have been more explicit - I assumed one hull would be lost to design costs - should have said it rather than just thought it! If the designs are more mature than I thought, then maybe a 6th hull is possible

Has it been comfermed that the T26 project will cost £10bn for the 8, last I saw it was an £8bn budget for the 8 ??

Fair question - I have simply added up the costs for the first 3 and extended that to cover the full 8 (then multiplied by BAEs acknowledged ability to stretch their billing to consume all available budget). If we got a 20-30% reduction in build costs over the whole project, then perhaps the total bill will be smaller (or we could get more T26/T31), but I'm not holding my breath. A 25% reduction in the per-hull costs of the second batch of 5 would give a total build cost of around £8.3b for all 8, which leaves a number of possible future scenarios open.

[ArmChairCivvy]

If the designs are more mature than I thought, then maybe a 6th hull is possible

For that if, we are both hoping ( I hope not wishing) and I tried to post about it... but as it "stuff in the works" to 2019 there is not much to go by (more than what our dear "open" Gvmnt let's us have, anyway).

[Caribbean]

Forgot to add, in my response to Jake, that we don't really know what is included in that £3.7b for the first 3. Does it include any of the (c. £1.5b?) up-front-costs (not just design, but facilities as well) - if not, then we need to add that to the £8.3. Also, did the River B2 money come out of the T26 budget? I would be surprised if all of that was included, but rather pleased.

[ArmChairCivvy]

we don't really know what is included in that £3.7b for the first 3. Does it include any of the (c. £1.5b?) up-front-costs (not just design, but facilities as well)

, thereafter
... so that he would not ASK TOO MANY QUALIFIED questions.

This is not good... and it will take us ten more years... heh-heh to 2027, halfway! ... to be able to actually have information that is broken down by prgrm cost and unit (production) costs.
- whatever we say about the cousins on the other side, they are doing this one much better (hey! before the facts; or doing forensic dissecting bad decisions, after the facts... what purpose does that serve?)

[Jake1992]

we do a remix of this cake, find a jar of Maraschino cherries in cupboard, and put them onto the cake:
3 x Patrol £360m
£1 bn left for 3 Heavy

Sorry - should have been more explicit - I assumed one hull would be lost to design costs - should have said it rather than just thought it! If the designs are more mature than I thought, then maybe a 6th hull is possible

Has it been comfermed that the T26 project will cost £10bn for the 8, last I saw it was an £8bn budget for the 8 ??

Fair question - I have simply added up the costs for the first 3 and extended that to cover the full 8 (then multiplied by BAEs acknowledged ability to stretch their billing to consume all available budget). If we got a 20-30% reduction in build costs over the whole project, then perhaps the total bill will be smaller (or we could get more T26/T31), but I'm not holding my breath. A 25% reduction in the per-hull costs of the second batch of 5 would give a total build cost of around £8.3b for all 8, which leaves a number of possible future scenarios open.

I ask as at the moment we are all going off the premise that the budge is £1.5bn left for T31 and £10bn on the T26.
Last I saw was Fallon ( yes we know what his figures are like ) saying last month that BEA were going to be given £8bn for 8 T26s over the life of the project.
Now if that's true and it hasn't been upped to £10bn that would give the T31 a £3.5bn budget, a much more reasonable amount.

[donald_of_tokyo]

250M GBP is as expected, and cheap. I thought it will be ~3000t class "large corvette" (as I posted a month ago) built to fighting-ship standard. But if it is >110m and 4000t, I agree it means the hull will be of OPV standard. In other words, more Floreal like than FTI like.

<My expectation on the proposals>
1: I think BAE will bid with Cutlass = extended Khareef.
Khareef was 133M GBP per unit. Of course, the difinition of "unit cost" may not be the same. So I think 250M GBP is not "twice" of it, and only expect modest modification: say, 7m hull added amidship, only to extend range and improve accomodation. 4m extention astern to make the flight deck Merlin capable. 110m long, and ~3500t FLD. No big change in other things: a 57mm gun, (12 CAMM in 2 hulls (+12 CAMM FFBNW), and no CAMM on 3 hulls), (4 NSM FFBNW), two 30mm gun, 1 Wildcat and a high-freq. mine avoidance sonar (and a ship torpedo defence system, in the 2 hulls). Done.

2: I think Babcock will bid with Vard 110 = USCG OPC or "Heritage class cutter". Actually, Babcock is in charge of its engineering design (see http://navaltoday.com/2017/03/21/babcoc ... l-cutters/). Typical OPV hull, 110m long, 4000t large. USCG requires very long range of 10,200nm and 60 days endurance, which is not needed in RN. Rather re-located these spaces for improved armaments, as: a 57mm gun, (12 CAMM in some hull (+12 CAMM FFBNW)), (4 NSM FFBNW), two 30mm gun, 1 Wildcat, a high-freq. mine avoidance sonar and a ship torpedo defence system (the same). Done.

3: In other words, I'm afraid BMT Venator may have no chance. In principle, Venator 110 built to OPV standard, 3 in Patrol Ship configuration and 2 in Patrol Frigate configuration will be a candidate. But, these concept is old, 15m wide and 3200t FLD (still you can see http://www.bmtdsl.co.uk/media/5252572/W ... tor110.pdf). Latest ones are 17m wide and 4000t FLD and more fighty. I am still thinking how can to make it as cheap as 250M GBP per unit...But, not easy... Also, BMT-Babcock pair would have been nice to see, but the information we got is perfect match with Vard 110 (a large Floreal like), not Venator 110 (more a FTI like). So, if Babcock goes with Vard 110, it is quite reasonable and in that case Venator 110 is dead.

< Comments on armaments >
250M GBP is really limited, if compared to the T26's cost. (Do not compare it with other countries' budget. Not only the standard differs, but also what is included may not be the same). I agree the 5 hulls shall better be 3 "patrol" and 2 "a bit more equipped" ones.

- Better to have 57mm gun, not 127 mm. I understand the logistic problem of introducing a new gun. But, I think the "patrol" version will NOT be equipped with CAMM (AAW system is very expensive). In this regard, 127mm not capable of AAW is critical. Commonality with US navy and USCG can be used.

if it goes with 127mm gun, which is much expensive than 57mm, and also much heavy, I see less possibility to carry CAMM. In this case, the T31 will be even worse than Floreal in AAW, since their 100m gun is more AAW than the 127mm gun.

- Do not require a mission bay. RN do not have anything to be carried in the bay, while there are so many mission bays to come, 8 T26, 5 River B2, 3 Bay-class LPD, in addition to the 8? MHCs. Very huge amount of mission bays!! Also there is a huge hangar onboard CVF. Vard 110 design has an open deck astern, which can carry 2-3 RHIBs. Good. That is enough. Any future off-board systems with a size of RHIB can be carried there.

- Good to have a little enlarged helo hangar, to carry both a Wildcat and some UAVs. No need for Merlin capable hangar. There are already many hangar for Merlin, and the Merlin itself is not enough, and in export, it will be very unpopular (too large and waste of resource).

[Ron5]

1. No Type 26 prices or budget have been published or revealed by a reliable source. No one on this board qualifies as the latter.

2. Here's a brochure on the BMT/SAAB proposal for Colombia

https://www.bmtdsl.co.uk/media/.../BMTD ... oposal.pdf

No costs or prices have been mentioned for the bid. They are not being proposed to be built using SJP's methodology. The bid is for a traditional warship build in an experienced Colombian ship yard. No blocks built in non-naval metal box factories. There's been zero mention of the nationality of the project manager.

No official word on how the bid is being perceived by the Colombians. There is some comment that it is a long shot and that they would prefer a mature production design as being proposed by DCNS.

3. I don't think a River B2 can be "stretched" to 115/120m & 4,000 tons. Too narrow for one thing. The Bae Avenger, to me, looks about 100m.

[Repulse]

The other thing is that the price for the T26s will be higher as they seem to be working to a hull per 2 years drumbeat.

Overall, what a waste of money trying to once again achieve the impossible, the infamous £250mn frigate.

I don't see what will be achieved beyond what a pimped River (Avenger) would give...

[ArmChairCivvy]

No one on this board qualifies as the latter.

True, howabout the RN Admiral and his £ 11bn? Any comment?

a traditional warship build in an experienced Colombian ship yard. No blocks built in non-naval metal box factories

-state owned, admirals on the Board. You seem to miss the normal "commercial perception" of risk, when the customer is not sitting on the Board, and any excess beyond the planned cost will be picked by A. the budget, or B. the next units, to be rolled out, too far into the future for anyone to remember what the cost figure was in the first place
- hull to be built in Cartagena (I trust that you know which ocean that is facing?) and the resulting work product would be fitted out (in the military sense, after propulsion and basic navigation) in the W. Canada, facing another ocean... its like sailing from Appledore to the the Clyde, no?

r a mature production design as being proposed by DCNS.

- yes, they are still (hoping to be) in the race

I don't think a River B2 can be "stretched" to 115/120m & 4,000 tons. Too narrow for one thing. The Bae Avenger, to me, looks about 100m.

- you are quite right, there

Ending with a quote:

what a waste of money trying to once again achieve the impossible, the infamous £250mn frigate.

Ho, ho, ho (feeling generous today) that 250m British Pound equals
319.90m US Dollar today, so if our (journo?) friend got his recollection anywhere near the "right" figure... we've got $40m to splash out

- please remember: I am a friend of all journos... as long as they play it straight!

[Ron5]

@Donald-san

Interesting comments from you. Thanks.

My thoughts are (premised on the video which contained Ralph's expectations and not MoD official announcements):

1. A 120m/4,000 ton capable warfighter cannot be built for 250 million. That's $80k per ton.

1a. Especially using Treasury pricing which rolls every cost (such as the first set of service & support contracts) into the unit cost.

1b. No mention of the design cost. Does that have to fit within the 250 million as well?

2. The RN will not accept a warship built to lesser standards than a River B2 which was built to RN frigate standards. Therefore a 4,000 ton OPV is out of the question.

3. The Treasury has a long and crappy history of setting totally unrealistic warship budgets. The Astute, CVF, Type 45 & Type 26 original budgets were laughable low. They required warships to be built at less than half the price of any comparable Western built ship (who knows Chinese or Russian pricing, both countries lie).

I don't know if the Treasury thinks its some kind of clever negotiating tactic but it leads to years of negative headlines & stories in the UK press & parliament during contract negotiations that are repeated as gospel and swallowed whole by the ignorant. Like when junior Minister Penny Morduant went to the US and proclaimed the Type 45's were the most expensive warship ever built, while her audience were scratching their heads wondering if she knew the USN were paying paid more for its Arleigh Burkes that have been in production for 20 years.

So after decades of rubbishing the shipbuilders, the Treasury gets finally beat to a decent price then turns around asks why none are exported? Shoot, who would buy a ship from the UK when the UK government & Navy say the ships are overpriced crap.

4. Not long to DSEI. I think that's Sept 10th.

[Repulse]

- hull to be built in Cartagena (I trust that you know which ocean that is facing?) and the resulting work product would be fitted out (in the military sense, after propulsion and basic navigation) in the W. Canada, facing another ocean... its like sailing from Appledore to the the Clyde, no?

Are you serious? The UK government would never go for the building warships abroad option - too much prestige lost for the right and jobs for the left. No please explain again how you get a £250mn UK built frigate.

[ArmChairCivvy]

Type 26 original budgets were laughable low.

Yes. Gordon Brown launched the project with a range estimate, where the £ 250m was the lower end.

Not long to DSEI. I think that's Sept 10th.

I think everything that can be said with the information available now has already been said... over to the journos - who get the briefings!

I will be "zipped" until ten... not even being a journo, or subject to any embargos

[Ron5]

Forgot to mention, Ralph didn't mention any timeframe for the build for the Type 31. he just said he expected downselect to a preferred design by the end of 2018.

But I do agree that implies concurrent build with Type 26's which is directly opposite to Fallon who has repeatedly said Type 31's get built after Type 26's.

The plot thickens.

[Repulse]

@Ron5: Exactly, better to save the money on designing something that will not work and spend it on weapons for additional Rivers instead. There government is not looking like it will cave in and provide the cash last minute, so it could mean the opportunity is wasted.

[Ron5]

- hull to be built in Cartagena (I trust that you know which ocean that is facing?) and the resulting work product would be fitted out (in the military sense, after propulsion and basic navigation) in the W. Canada, facing another ocean... its like sailing from Appledore to the the Clyde, no?

Are you serious? The UK government would never go for the building warships abroad option - too much prestige lost for the right and jobs for the left. No please explain again how you get a £250mn UK built frigate.

I'm not sure why he thinks the proposed ships will be fitted out in Canada. I've not read that.

[ArmChairCivvy]

The UK government would never go for the building warships abroad option

That is the policy: I did not propose building anything outside the UK.

The reason why I picked up the bid by BMT/ Saab/ the national warship builder was to tie the proposed cost to the distributed "build model"
- do you, or do you not recognise the similarity to what SJP proposed, to be done within our national borders?

I do agree that implies concurrent build with Type 26's which is directly opposite to Fallon who has repeatedly said

- I am glad that after two years of me banging on this you are caving in (you did give me credit - once! - for not giving up... can't remember what it was about)

The plot thickens.

- I am also glad that you have marked my words (look up on the tread )

[ArmChairCivvy]

why he thinks the proposed ships will be fitted out in Canada. I've not read that.

The "he" - who is it? - might be closer to the sources than you are... any surprises there ?
- and so far it, it is in singular, btw

[Caribbean]

1. A 120m/4,000 ton capable warfighter cannot be built for 250 million. That's $80k per ton.

A valid point, though you look as if you are doing your sums with the current exchange rate. The long term average is closer to $1.50 mark, which is probably fairer (I've seen variations between 1.04 and 2.59 in my lifetime). That would give a price per tonne of £66,666 pounds (how apt ) or £266m for a 4000t ship. FX Risk will have some effect, of course, but it's actually not that far off the mark (from a purely monetary viewpoint, that is). Challenging, yes, but I think that's the point - it seems to have been too challenging for a certain party

Better to have 57mm gun

Personally I would go with the 76mm, since its around the same price as the 57mm, and is a little more general-purpose. Babcock's also have recent experience with it and may well be in a position to support it (do they support the INS* 76mm guns? If so, there may be some opportunities for co-operation on the logistics side)

*Irish Naval Service, not Indian

[RetroSicotte]

Okay folks, lets move to the escorts threat. News only.