Brexit - The UK's EU Referendum & Withdrawal

[dmereifield]

the Brexit vote, which was a vote to end free movement, regain the ability to make free trade deals, ending payment to the EU budget and leaving the jurisdiction of the ECJ (and both campaigns made it clear that a leave vote was a vote to leave the single market).

Looks like the ticket they gave to you was different from mine?

the best possible FTA agreement that can be negotiated in the 2 year period, which will be less access than being in the single market, but better access than WTO rules

So a deal worse than Turkey has had for years?

Both the official remain and leave campaigns made clear that a leave vote meant leaving the single market. Leave made clear it was necessary to end free movement, leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ, cease contributions to the EU budget and to be able to make free trade deals. The remain campaign made clear that a leave vote was also a vote to leave the single market, as they sought to make the economic case for remaining.
Subsequently, May has made clear that free movement (as it stands) must end and the EU has made clear the 4 freedoms are non-negotiable. Unless there are major concessions from both sides on this point, which seems unlikely, then that leaves an FTA or WTO. It's in both parties interests economically (as well as more broadly in terms of the overall relationship) to have an FTA. The details of which is to be decided. Re Turkey, it may be better or worse access, but I don't think we can stay (fully) in the customs union

[FuNsTeR]

the Brexit vote, which was a vote to end free movement, regain the ability to make free trade deals, ending payment to the EU budget and leaving the jurisdiction of the ECJ (and both campaigns made it clear that a leave vote was a vote to leave the single market).

Looks like the ticket they gave to you was different from mine?

the best possible FTA agreement that can be negotiated in the 2 year period, which will be less access than being in the single market, but better access than WTO rules

So a deal worse than Turkey has had for years?

Both the official remain and leave campaigns made clear that a leave vote meant leaving the single market. Leave made clear it was necessary to end free movement, leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ, cease contributions to the EU budget and to be able to make free trade deals. The remain campaign made clear that a leave vote was also a vote to leave the single market, as they sought to make the economic case for remaining.
Subsequently, May has made clear that free movement (as it stands) must end and the EU has made clear the 4 freedoms are non-negotiable. Unless there are major concessions from both sides on this point, which seems unlikely, then that leaves an FTA or WTO. It's in both parties interests economically (as well as more broadly in terms of the overall relationship) to have an FTA. The details of which is to be decided. Re Turkey, it may be better or worse access, but I don't think we can stay (fully) in the customs union

so that will mean the jocks will be off then, more money saved with no longer having to subsidise them, the way things are going i would like to see Westminster politicians put England first for a change, it wouldn't bother me in the slightest to see the taffs and the norn irish leave as well as they also sponge off our tax money, Brexit is about taking our country back for me that means England

[WhitestElephant]

It would be comical to see Scotland choose free movement with Berlin over London.

[FuNsTeR]

It would be comical to see Scotland choose free movement with Berlin over London.

hence their would have to be a hard border set up between scotland and England, most definitely not at hadrians wall it's England both sides

[dmereifield]

It would be comical to see Scotland choose free movement with Berlin over London.

It seems unlikely doesn't it. But once the dust settles on the new UK- EU relationship in 5 years or so, I think another Indy Ref isn't unreasonable, if there is a desire for it by the Scottish electorate

[FuNsTeR]

i think they will have a referendum next year, i have this feeling it will be announced by the poison dwarf the day after article 50 is invoked

[Pseudo]

i think they will have a referendum next year, i have this feeling it will be announced by the poison dwarf the day after article 50 is invoked

If the Scottish government were to announce their intention to hold a referendum on secession the day after Article 50 was triggered then there's almost no chance that they could hold the referendum before the Article 50 negotiations were complete. With Article 50 negotiations ongoing there'd be few if any resources that the UK government and civil service could devote to working on the legal details of the referendum.

[dmereifield]

i think they will have a referendum next year, i have this feeling it will be announced by the poison dwarf the day after article 50 is invoked

If the Scottish government were to announce their intention to hold a referendum on secession the day after Article 50 was triggered then there's almost no chance that they could hold the referendum before the Article 50 negotiations were complete. With Article 50 negotiations ongoing there'd be few if any resources that the UK government and civil service could devote to working on the legal details of the referendum.

Not to mention the fact that Sturgeon cannot hold a legally binding referendum - it's not hers to gift. Neither would it be a shrewd political move to hold one when the current opinion polls (for whatever they are worth) indicate a minority of Scots support a second independence referendum and a minority support independence. Without any clarity on the new UK-EU relationship, how could the Scots make an informed decision? Therefore, a second referendum, if it happens at all, won't be for a few years yet

[dmereifield]

Theresa May signals that Britain will leave Single Market

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... rm-vision/

[SDL]

watched the interview... always knew that the brexit vote meant leaving the single market as well, so this isn't a surprise to me.

[dmereifield]

Me either, and it didn't deter me from voting to leave

[rockey.udf]

And now the French are threatening Frexit! Lol!

[SDL]

Me either, and it didn't deter me from voting to leave

Fair enough... for me, Leave didn't make a convincing argument to vote for them, so I voted Remain.

[dmereifield]

Me either, and it didn't deter me from voting to leave

Fair enough... for me, Leave didn't make a convincing argument to vote for them, so I voted Remain.

Both campaigns were poor, 90% of what the "information" they provided was speculation, misrepresentation, half truths, biased statistics or outright lies...which is what we would expect from politicians...but it was disappointing to see international statesman and apparently impartial national and international institutions joining in

[SDL]

Brexit is big enough that I don't think any group or person in international eye could be deemed impartial. What got me was (in my area at least) the highly racist nature of the anti-immigration angle of Brexit. no one could give me anything on how it would affect the UK finances (Apart from the big red bus lie that is), instead just shouting at me that immigrants are bad, they're evil and they'll either kill me or take away my disability benefits.

Even now, months after the vote, it's the same old thing as above... I still have no evidence that Brexit isn't going to bankrupt the country.... and that seriously concerns me.

[ArmChairCivvy]

What got me was (in my area at least) the highly racist nature of the anti-immigration angle of Brexit. no one could give me anything on how it would affect the UK finances

Agreed. And not long before the process started the Institute For Fiscal Studies did an in-depth one, informing (but not widely circulated) that
- migrants with EU citizenship were 1 bn plus
- and the rest minus 12 bn

This is education, other public services, tax generated... all in. And the argument THEN used was still just a blunt one - bundling immigration into and under one slogan.

[FuNsTeR]

Theresa May signals that Britain will leave Single Market

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... rm-vision/

that means the Scotch will be holding another referendum, they should give England the vote and we'll kick them out

[dmereifield]

Brexit is big enough that I don't think any group or person in international eye could be deemed impartial. What got me was (in my area at least) the highly racist nature of the anti-immigration angle of Brexit. no one could give me anything on how it would affect the UK finances (Apart from the big red bus lie that is), instead just shouting at me that immigrants are bad, they're evil and they'll either kill me or take away my disability benefits.

Even now, months after the vote, it's the same old thing as above... I still have no evidence that Brexit isn't going to bankrupt the country.... and that seriously concerns me.

Disappointing to hear that. That's not been the case in my neck of the woods, where most people that are concerned about immigration are concerned about the numbers, not people's ethnicity, culture, country of origin etc. In fact, many that I know are not concerned about the numbers even, merely the principle that we are unable to decide our own immigration policy with regards to EU nationals.

I don't intend the rerun debate, but the forecasts in terms of GDP, unemployment rate, consumer confidence, stock market crash etc have been grossly pessimistic, as evidence has now come to show. Ok we are not out of the woods yet, but the forecasts for retarded GDP growth, business investment, foreign direct investment and consumer confidence that were prophesised to occur in the run up to the referendum (as the mere act of holding the referendum was supposed to destabilise the economy) were wrong. Likewise, the forecasts that a leave vote would destabilise the economy, leading to (100k's) job losses, a recession, the FTSE to crash, a collapse in consumer confidence etc have also been proved to be incorrect.

As such the forecasts for GDP growth have been upwardly revised by the greatest margins on record, from recession to quite respectable levels of growth - better than that forecast for France and in line with that of Germany. In fact, given the positive PMI data for Nov and Dec I'm sure the forecasts will be raised upwards again soon.....

With the data presently available, I believe the short term impact will be marginal, a slight retardation of GDP expansion compared to growth which we would have experienced had we voted to remain, but in the medium to long term they impact on the economy will be neutral or positive

[dmereifield]

What got me was (in my area at least) the highly racist nature of the anti-immigration angle of Brexit. no one could give me anything on how it would affect the UK finances

Agreed. And not long before the process started the Institute For Fiscal Studies did an in-depth one, informing (but not widely circulated) that
- migrants with EU citizenship were 1 bn plus
- and the rest minus 12 bn

This is education, other public services, tax generated... all in. And the argument THEN used was still just a blunt one - bundling immigration into and under one slogan.

I don't want to bang on about immigration too much, since it wasn't the motivation for my vote to leave, but the fact that collectively EU migrants made a positive economic contribution to the economy does not equate to "all EU migrants contribute positively to the economy", therefore, it is entirely feasible that a more selective immigration policy towards EU nationals could result in an even greater economic contribution.

However, to clarify, I don't think we should (only) judge immigrants on their financial contributions (I'm not insinuating that you do), there are many other benefits that immigration can bring, which also need to be factored into immigration policy

[dmereifield]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ost-brexit

Signs, perhaps, that common sense may prevail and a mutually beneficial relationship can emerge

[SDL]

I'd be very surprised if the EU did back down on anything. they risk other countries looking at any favourable UK deal and deciding to split away themselves as they could get the same sort of deal for their own country...

[dmereifield]

Yes obviously there will be a lot of politics involved. We can't be seen to get a better deal, so we won't get a better deal in terms of trade, there will be reduced access to the single market, and in turn they will have reduced access to the UK - but hopefully not to a damaging extent for either party. A relationship built around a free trade agreement and cooperation across defence and security will emerge. How long it takes to achieve this is another matter....

[The Armchair Soldier]

A map showing the main Brexit concerns among EU member states:

[dmereifield]

A map showing the main Brexit concerns among EU member states:

Interesting stuff, hopefully, this might encourage HMG to open the purse strings and bolster defence soending to help accentuate the point

[arfah]

What does Malta think?